Twins 8, Cubs 1: Ryan Jeffers, Twins Ambush Cubs

[Steven Trefz]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Simeon Woods Richardson 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (61 pitches, 40 strikes (66%))
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (7), Willi Castro (8), Harrison Bader (11)
Top 3 WPA: Woods Richardson (.246), Jeffers (.139), Griffin Jax (.073)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 
 

The Twins took a day off on Monday to contemplate the sweep of the Rays that could have been, and to turn the mental page forward to facing the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs. Simeon Woods Richardson (4-4, 4.41 ERA) came into Tuesday night's contest having won his last two starts. Lefty Shota Imanaga (5-2, 2.27 ERA) took the hill for the Cubs, looking to win his third in a row since returning from the IL in late June. On paper, the Twins were underdogs, but could they become top dogs on the terra firma of Target Field?

It's an Early Twins Ambush!
After Woods Richardson struck out two in a scoreless top of the first, 2025 All-Star and Home Run Derby participant Byron Buxton got behind 0-2, before lacing a double to left to lead off the bottom half of the first. Ryan Jeffers played copycat, also falling behind 0-2 to Imanaga before he ripped a double down the left-field line to score Buxton and post an early 1-0 advantage for the home team.

In a tumultuous June, the Twins left many a runner stranded in scoring position with less than two outs. After Willi Castro grounded out to the shortstop and left Jeffers standing at second, Twins fans no doubt began to rev up their "Here we go again" engine. Carlos Correa singled to advance Jeffers but not score him, and the engine kept on revving. Royce Lewis came up to the plate, and before Twins Territory could shout it, Lewis delivered the necessary baseball play: a deep fly ball that scored Jeffers and put a crooked number on the board in the first inning for the first time since June 22. Suddenly, Woods Richardson was trotting back out for the second inning with a 2-0 lead.

Simeon Woods Richardson is a Good Pitcher
Miracle or mirage? That was the question facing Woods Richardson as he entered tonight's contest. When he found himself in trouble, he kept things from imploding. Woods Richardson mixed his pitches well, kept a talented Cubs lineup off their toes, and bulldozed through the lineup two times. As has been the case, Rocco Baldelli lifted him before the lineup turned over for a third time and he left as the pitcher of record surrendering only two hits and no runs in five innings.

Good Thing the Twins Ambushed Early
The Twins offense could muster absolutely nothing off of Imanaga the rest of the way, as he cruised through innings two through six without surrendering another rally or run. Former Twins fan favorite Caleb Thielbar came in to pitch the seventh and gave up some warning track power to Lewis, but ultimately kept the Twins scoreless as well.

Meanwhile, the Twins sent Danny Coulombe out to take care of business in the top of the sixth, and Cole Sands for a 1-2-3 seventh. Griffin Jax got the call for the top of the eighth, and immediately stepped into the danger zone yet again after a rough outing on Sunday afternoon. He gave up a leadoff single to Ian Happ and walked Kyle Tucker on a full count, to put two men on with nobody out. Jax settled down to strike out Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong to bring last week's Player of the Week, Michael Busch, to the plate with one last chance to ruin the Twins' night. Busch crushed a ball 102 mph to right, but the Twins had a guy there named Willi Castro. The right fielder easily put away Busch on the liner and thwarted the Cubs' threat.

It's a Late Twins Ambush!
Porter Hodge came in to face the Twins in the bottom of the eighth, and he had been cruising, only surrendering one run in six outings since mid-May. Hodge made the mistake of walking Buxton to start the inning, and while he was busy worrying about Buxton's speed at first, he forgot to worry about Jeffers at the plate. Jeffers thought three RBIs on the night sounded just swell.

Not to be outdone, Castro pulled a sweeper into the right field porch to immediately make it 5-0 Twins. Correa added to Hodge's misery with a rope of a double to the wall in left, and he scored, too, when Lewis snuck a grounder through the left side to make it 6-0. As if that wasn't enough, Harrison Bader kept his good times rolling with a moonshot of his own to make it 8-0!

The Twins celebrated their new-found blowout by getting to save Jhoan Duran for a later date, and sending Joey Wentz out for the ninth inning. With one out, the ageless Justin Turner took care of the shutout with a solo home run to left, but Wentz induced a double play to end the game and to send the Target Field crowd home happy with an 8-1 victory.

What’s Next?
The Twins look to take their second series in a row against a playoff-caliber opponent on Wednesday evening. Twins righty David Festa (2-3, 5.48 ERA) will look to not get ambushed like he did against the Marlins in his last outing, while the Cubs will send righty Cade Horton (3-2, 4.15 ERA) to the mound. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm CDT.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Adams	0	68	0	0	0	68
Stewart	23	0	12	0	12	47
Jax	0	12	13	0	22	47
Coulombe	11	14	0	0	17	42
Durán	0	34	0	0	0	34
Sands	5	19	0	0	6	30
Varland	19	0	9	0	0	28
Wentz	0	0	0	0	20	20
Topa	0	0	15	0	0	15

 

 

 

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[Blyleven2011]

Twins win ...

2 early runs and an explosion for 6 for insurance in the bottom of eighth is a good recipe for a win ...

SWR pitched a very solid game but was pulled after 61 pitches and 5 innings , bullpen finished with a few hiccups  ...

Let's get them again tomorrow to secure the series win ...

Oh I can't resist , Rocco is definitely the worst manager in twins history  , quite the discussion on the game thread about Rocco  ...

[bjorks]

Solid game from home team, but what I really enjoyed was the 3 wisemen and Pablo in the booth (no offense Corey). They were GREAT and an enjoyable way to watch the game. 

[IndyTwinsFan]

Nice win. 

I still think that taking the training wheels off of SWR is long overdue.  We really need to find out what he's fully capable of, so we know exactly what we have.  Always limiting him to 2 times through the order and 5 innings each outing is never going to accomplish that end.

[Aggies7]

16 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Twins win ...

2 early runs and an explosion for 6 for insurance in the bottom of eighth is a good recipe for a win ...

SWR pitched a very solid game but was pulled after 61 pitches and 5 innings , bullpen finished with a few hiccups  ...

Let's get them again tomorrow to secure the series win ...

Oh I can't resist , Rocco is definitely the worst manager in twins history  , quite the discussion on the game thread about Rocco  ...

He’s not the worst manager in team history. But it’s more than fair to question the handling of pitchers by a franchise (staff and FO included) that rarely, if ever, develops reliable starting pitching. SWR has been a much needed bright spot since returning, and he’s treated with no confidence. Would suck as a player and even Pablo said as much during the broadcast, albeit very diplomatically. It’s not like the twins approach to pitching is producing big dividends. They’re bottom third to bottom half in just about every statistical category 

[IndyTwinsFan]

9 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

He’s not the worst manager in team history. But it’s more than fair to question the handling of pitchers by a franchise (staff and FO included) that rarely, if ever, develops reliable starting pitching. SWR has been a much needed bright spot since returning, and he’s treated with no confidence. Would suck as a player and even Pablo said as much during the broadcast, albeit very diplomatically. It’s not like the twins approach to pitching is producing big dividends. They’re bottom third to bottom half in just about every statistical category 

Agreed.  You can't keep treating the young starters with kid gloves indefinitely.  They have to come off sometime.  SWR, Festa, and Matthews are just the current ones affected.  There will likely be more.

Very frustrating!

[Dman]

I think the stats bear out that SWR isn't as good the third time through the order.  The Twins are in a spot where they can't afford to lose any winnable games. I can understand them playing the odds for the win.  The bullpen was rested, it was a two run game against a very good offensive team and the bullpen has been good recently.  I think the odds for the win favored going bullpen early.

Still using all those arms right out of the gate could hurt them the rest of the series.  We'll find out how this works out the next couple of days.  At least they did manage to get the win so the strategy did work.

[Aggies7]

12 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think the stats bear out that SWR isn't as good the third time through the order.  The Twins are in a spot where they can't afford to lose any winnable games. I can understand them playing the odds for the win.  The bullpen was rested, it was a two run game against a very good offensive team and the bullpen has been good recently.  I think the odds for the win favored going bullpen early.

Still using all those arms right out of the gate could hurt them the rest of the series.  We'll find out how this works out the next couple of days.  At least they did manage to get the win so the strategy did work.

I had to look this up and I’m not seeing where he’s so awful the third time through the order. Is this just one of those things that gets repeated so often it’s just believed to be true? Or am I completely wrong, which is totally possible.

 

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

I had to look this up and I’m not seeing where he’s so awful the third time through the order. Is this just one of those things that gets repeated so often it’s just believed to be true? Or am I completely wrong, which is totally possible.

 

That actually doesn't look bad. Is that just this years stats or total? I guess Rocko is the only who knows why he didn't trust him.  I swear I have seen Sim get beat up late, but I must be wrong.

[Aggies7]

11 minutes ago, Dman said:

That actually doesn't look bad. Is that just this years stats or total? I guess Rocko is the only who knows why he didn't trust him.  I swear I have seen Sim get beat up late, but I must be wrong.

I have seen it happen too, but the numbers aren’t nearly as bad as some of the comments would indicate 

[IndyTwinsFan]

9 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

I have seen it happen too, but the numbers aren’t nearly as bad as some of the comments would indicate 

He'll likely never be at least reasonably good at it until he starts getting continued opportunities to do so.  That will also show what he's really made of, as far as his psyche and physical abilities go.

[Dman]

9 hours ago, IndyTwinsFan said:

He'll likely never be at least reasonably good at it until he starts getting continued opportunities to do so.  That will also show what he's really made of, as far as his psyche and physical abilities go.

I

[FlyingFinn]

35 minutes ago, Dman said:

That actually doesn't look bad. Is that just this years stats or total? I guess Rocko is the only who knows why he didn't trust him.  I swear I have seen Sim get beat up late, but I must be wrong.

Postgame Rocco said if the Twins scored two more runs in the 5th, Sim was going back out there. He also said the Monday off day with the rested pen played a big factor. 

[Dman]

16 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Postgame Rocco said if the Twins scored two more runs in the 5th, Sim was going back out there. He also said the Monday off day with the rested pen played a big factor. 

Yeah that's right, my bad.  He just didn't trust him with such a slim lead.

[Bracky]

I know that we have Wallner and Larnach as our batting lefties. I also know that Castro can play multiple positions.

However, regardless, I really feel like our primary outfield line up needs to be Bader (LF), Buxton (CF) and Castro (RF). They have consistent speed in those positions and can each cover a lot of ground. I think Castro plays better out there too in my opinion. I don't feel like Larnach and Wallner are even close to providing that type of overall defense in the OF.

And at this point, even with a small sample size, Bader has a hot bat and should be in the line up until it cools off.

[David HK]

1 hour ago, Aggies7 said:

He’s not the worst manager in team history. But it’s more than fair to question the handling of pitchers by a franchise (staff and FO included) that rarely, if ever, develops reliable starting pitching. SWR has been a much needed bright spot since returning, and he’s treated with no confidence. Would suck as a player and even Pablo said as much during the broadcast, albeit very diplomatically. It’s not like the twins approach to pitching is producing big dividends. They’re bottom third to bottom half in just about every statistical category 

**cough**  Ray Miller *cough** 😅

[David HK]

Great wrap-up Steven!

I grew up a Twins fan on the Dakota plains, so they're always #1 in my heart.  But I also came of age with the WGN Cubs day games, and spent all of the 90s about 4 blocks from Wrigley, so the Cubbies are always #2!  Went to the very 1st Twins/Cubs series when interleague play started!

#3-- the Giants (my first PeeWee team! 😅)  And WHAT A FINISH at New Candlestick tonight!!  

(Now this is what a real play-by-play guy sounds like-- "Bailey's on the move.... Bailey's on the move!!")

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/777186/video/patrick-bailey-homers-2-on-a-fly-ball-to-right-center-field-casey-schmitt

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, IndyTwinsFan said:

Nice win. 

I still think that taking the training wheels off of SWR is long overdue.  We really need to find out what he's fully capable of, so we know exactly what we have.  Always limiting him to 2 times through the order and 5 innings each outing is never going to accomplish that end.

The constant 5th inning and done is stunting SWR growth and career prospects.  His agent surely is telling him this.

[knothole61]

3 hours ago, bjorks said:

Solid game from home team, but what I really enjoyed was the 3 wisemen and Pablo in the booth (no offense Corey). They were GREAT and an enjoyable way to watch the game. 

It's hard to disagree with the esteemed "thumbs up" crew on this post, but the telecast booth proceedings drove me to distraction and I had to turn the sound down after the second inning or so. It's probably some failing of mine, but I need to concentrate on the action on the field; and no, the split-screen doesn't do it for me. I have nothing against any of those (a multitude!) in the booth and I think that Pablo is a very bright and articulate man, but if I really want to see how he grips a changeup I'll head to YouTube later and see what I can find, not during the game itself. Last night was essentially an in-game dugout interview that lasted for hours.

I hope that they never do this again, but I have a feeling that such things, along with on-field interviews during play (and whatever drone camera horrors they may come up with in the future to make the game more "enjoyable") are the wave of the future.    

So it goes...

 

[Western SD Fan]

I missed the game thread tonight, so I had to go back and read it and the expected comments about not letting SWR shake himself of the training wheels were all on there.  I fully agree with one of the commenters that you could have had SWR go back out for the sixth with a batter-by-batter approach with Coulombe and/or Stewart warmed up to come in if he gets in trouble.  Rocco was expecting Coulombe to pitch to Suzuki (RH) anyway so why not let SWR try to get another batter or two.  I did go back through SWR's game logs since coming back from AAA and he has faced some good lineups: TEX, HOU, MIL, SEA, MIA, AND CHC.  Other than Miami, these are all decent lineups, and you could make an argument for not letting him face this lineup a third time.  What I see that frustrates me the most is that Rocco & Co. have a plan and want to stick to the plan, like planning out a two-week family vacation rather than managing the game.

As for the all-analyst broadcast, loved it as a niche thing.  I may not like as much after an entire series of this but tonight was nice.  The transitions coming in and out of commercial breaks were disjointed and some of the in-game things such as who is warming up in the bullpen or who is in the on-deck circle could have been better.  I see that as an additional duty for the production guys to let them know about such things to point out while they are doing this all-analyst experiment.  Going forward, I would like to see this as multiple single games throughout a season and not a single series.

Finally, a shout out to our old friend, Caleb Thielbar, the pride of South Dakota State Jackrabbit baseball! 🙂

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

I had to look this up and I’m not seeing where he’s so awful the third time through the order. Is this just one of those things that gets repeated so often it’s just believed to be true? Or am I completely wrong, which is totally possible.

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Cubs have a lot of intimidating hitters in their lineup, especially left-handed hitters. Sims did a great job of pitching 5 scoreless innings. Sims is still a young arm, I don't blame Rocco for pulling him 3rd time against their most menacing LH hitters for LHP Coulume in a close game.

Buck is a great leadoff hitter. He likes to pounce on SPs before they get settled in. He's taking more walks & when he gets OB, he steals bases & distracts pitchers to make mistakes for hitters like Jeffers.

3 out 4 home games, so far, keep up the good work. Great pitching & hitting! Go Twins!

[IndianaTwin]

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We are looking at 122 games here. Where did those games come from? They can't be his MLB career games. Could they be his pro career? Or maybe his MiLB games? Which would make more sense. There is a big difference between his short MLB career games (which we need to look at) and his entire rookie- AAA MiLB games.

He’d pitched in 43 career games when this screen shot was pulled last night. I think you are misreading the format. The 41 games in the first line and the 41 in the second line are the same games. And then in 33 of those games he’s at least started through the lineup a third time and one time got to a fourth time.

(Which also refutes the theory that Rocco “never lets SWR face a batter the third time,” given it’s happened more than 80 percent of the time. I assume that his two relief appearances were as a bulk pitcher after an opener, since he got to the third time through in both of those as well.)

[Riverbrian]

Once a series I will post the number of players on the opposing team that have 3 years or less experience. 

I do this so anyone inclined can easily compare and contrast. 

The Cubs are one of the few teams that compare with the Twins in regards to the youth on their roster.

The Cubs came to Target Field with 9 pre-arb players (less then 3 years experience) which is ranked near the bottom. 

The Twins are now up to 11 players with less than 3 years experience. 

The Cubs are currently 54-37

The Twins are 44-47

Cubs payroll is about 192M . The Twins payroll is 145M

[jmlease1]

6 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

The constant 5th inning and done is stunting SWR growth and career prospects.  His agent surely is telling him this.

Which is worse for his career earning prospects, coming out after pitching 5 sterling innings or getting rocked for 3-4 runs in the 6th? His agent is probably thrilled the team is protecting him against going a 3rd time through the opponent batting order; he can sell hope without evidence to another team (or an arbiter) easier than poor results.

I felt like SWR deserved to get a shot at the 6th, but the team is in such a marginal position that they can't afford developmental decisions at the MLB level like they were out of contention in late august or something. If they'd had a few more early runs, SWR gets the chance. I don't like the decision particularly, but I understand it. SWR pitched very well against a stacked lineup; Cubs are leading baseball in runs per game and sent out a lineup with 8 guys with an OPS above league average. While I disagreed with the decision to not let SWR get the 6th after controlling his pitch count so effectively and pitching so well, I'd rather spend my energy on praise for SWR than looks for reasons to bash the manager...especially when the decision worked out.

The long lulls the offense gets into after looking like they're going to maybe take it to a starter early are frustrating. And even stacking the lineup, they're not hitting LHP very well. Fortunately, the Cubs threw a RHP out there and the team jumped him. Not complaining about the 8th inning explosion, just wish it was earlier.

[mickster]

8 hours ago, Dman said:

I think the stats bear out that SWR isn't as good the third time through the order.  The Twins are in a spot where they can't afford to lose any winnable games. I can understand them playing the odds for the win.  The bullpen was rested, it was a two run game against a very good offensive team and the bullpen has been good recently.  I think the odds for the win favored going bullpen early.

Still using all those arms right out of the gate could hurt them the rest of the series.  We'll find out how this works out the next couple of days.  At least they did manage to get the win so the strategy did work.

I was disappointed that SWR was pulled, however it may have been the correct decision.  Stewart wasn't used much and Varland and Duran never pitched either.   On the fence on this one as a 4 run lead versus a 2 run lead may have resulted in a different decision and wins are a premium right now.

[stringer bell]

I like SWR a lot as a pitcher and competitor, but in today's game, he isn't dominant. His velo is about average (I think he had a couple of pitches measured at 96, but mostly 92-94), he doesn't get a lot of swings and misses and he has a pedestrian strikeout rate (7.8 Ks per 9). His margin for error is pretty small and he has had episodes where it all falls apart quickly.

When someone asked what Woods Richardson has to do to work deeper in games, my tongue-in-cheek reply was "score more runs". but I meant it. If the score was 4 or 5 to 0, the manager indicated he would stick with his starter. IIRC, SWR has worked deeper in two games where he was behind, but Rocco wants to make sure when the starter pitches to a lead that the ball gets to the bullpen with a lead.

I'm neutral on the manager, probably most critical of not getting young players to take the step of becoming lineup, bullpen or rotation fixtures because they are overprotected. Sim is Exhibit A when it comes to the young starters.

[TwinsDr2021]

25 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Which is worse for his career earning prospects, coming out after pitching 5 sterling innings or getting rocked for 3-4 runs in the 6th? His agent is probably thrilled the team is protecting him against going a 3rd time through the opponent batting order; he can sell hope without evidence to another team (or an arbiter) easier than poor results.

I think both hurt him, when and if he becomes a free agent he will be compared to other pitchers and will be paid accordingly. But you don't know if he is going to get rocked for 3 or 4 runs, well we probably do because he would have been pulled prior to that but that isn't the point. 

SWR isn't young nor old, but the Twins have him wrapped up for the next 5 years? so any contract talk is kind of meaningless. 

[Bodie]

8 hours ago, Bracky said:

I know that we have Wallner and Larnach as our batting lefties. I also know that Castro can play multiple positions.

However, regardless, I really feel like our primary outfield line up needs to be Bader (LF), Buxton (CF) and Castro (RF). They have consistent speed in those positions and can each cover a lot of ground. I think Castro plays better out there too in my opinion. I don't feel like Larnach and Wallner are even close to providing that type of overall defense in the OF.

And at this point, even with a small sample size, Bader has a hot bat and should be in the line up until it cools off.

Bader needs to be out there for his glove and energy, and take the bat as a bonus.

Until he can be replaced by someone at least competent, he plays...

[Linus]

It was enjoyable to watch some athletic outfielders who can run and play defense. The Twins need an injection of that in my opinion meaning I would move on from Larnach or Wallner (maybe both) for next year.