Twins 5, Tigers 1: Rome Wasn't Built in a Day

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins entered Sunday's tilt against the Tigers needing something—anything—to jumpstart their season. Fortunately, Byron Buxton was happy to oblige with two extra-base hits; the newly recalled Brooks Lee delivered a key RBI single; and the pitching bent but didn't break in a lovely little win.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (78 Pitches, 54 Strikes, 69.2%)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (3), Edouard Julien (1)
Top 3 WPA: Woods Richardson (.171), Buxton (.126), Louis Varland (.079)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

What a week, huh? When I was recapping last Sunday's game, the Twins were three outs away from taking a series against a decent Houston team and moving to 4-5 on the year. Since then, the Twins have collapsed in on themselves, losing that rubber match against the Astros, dropping three of four from the Royals and losing the first two against Detroit—in, uh, less than impressive fashion. 

The face of the team's failures ended up being Jose Miranda, the jumpy third baseman who forgot first how to identify a strike, and later how to perceive a safe call. He was sent to St. Paul after yesterday's game in favor of a rehabbed Brooks Lee.

Other changes included giving Carlos Correa the day off after playing every game thus far. Somewhat surprisingly, Willi Castro started at shortstop instead of the more natural fit, in Lee. Then again, Castro hasn't looked great at third, and perhaps that played into the decision.

Matt Wallner was also moved out of the leadoff spot in favor of Edouard Julien, who earned the spot by quietly hitting .380 over the last seven games.

On the mound was Simeon Woods Richardson, who has been hard to get a feel for thus far. His stuff hasn't looked amazing, but he has hung in and given the Twins a chance to win in each of his starts. He has emphasized his slider and curveball over his change-up in the early going and his fastball has lived in the 90-94 MPH range. The jury is out if his career trajectory is going to look like Boof Bonser or someone like Chris Bassitt. 

He hung a couple of sliders in the first. The first was smacked off the wall by Kerry Carpenter, the second got All-Star Riley Greene rung up for the third out of the inning.

Opposing Woods Richardson was former number one overall pick Casey Mize. Mize sat 96 with his fastball but struck Julien out on four pitches to start his outing, all sliders and splitters. Byron Buxton hit next, and worked the count to 3-2 before pouncing on a mistake fastball that leaked over the heart of the plate and depositing it in the left field bleachers.

The second inning may have been even more encouraging. After Ty France led off with a duck snort single, he was advanced to second by a Ryan Jeffers groundout, and to third on a wild pitch. Brooks Lee then fought off a splitter and grounded it back up the middle to score France. Maybe Lee just likes facing the Tigers?

SWR kept dancing through raindrops, taking advantage of the bottom of the Tigers lineup and minimizing the damage done by the meat of the order. He struck out Greene to end the third on a 95 MPH fastball on the outer edge, stranding two runners in the process.

Mize was in a groove by this point, not allowing any solid contact and locating his splitter well. He retired ten Twins in a row at one point in the middle innings. SWR allowed a fourth inning home run to the red hot Spencer Torkelson on a fat fastball but continued to compete well. He gave up a two out hit to Gleyber Torres before hitting Carpenter with a pitch in the fifth, but recovered to get Greene to pop out to right.

SWR was removed after 78 Pitches and five innings. Some may have questioned that move, but Torkelson was leading off the inning and Woods Richardson threw a career high 107 pitches in his last outing. Louis Varland was the choice to replace him, and he looked the best he has in quite a while, locking up Torkelson on a nasty curveball, and striking out the side in order.

That choice looked even smarter when Julien led off the bottom of the inning with an opposite field homer off a high splitter from Mize.

Buxton followed with a single that he stretched into a double by virtue of his being Byron Buxton, and Castro hit a dribbler that became an infield single. After Wallner struck out, the best Twins' best hitter™ Ty France hit a chopper upon the middle that Torres tried to flip to second, only shortstop Trey Sweeney was not covering, allowing everyone to be safe. After a Jeffers fly out, Mize was done and threw a tantrum in the dugout, a sight for sore eyes.

Everything was lined up for Cole Sands, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran to pitch the final three innings. That should have inspired confidence, but these are the 2025 Twins we're talking about.  Harrison Bader did his part to make sure that Sands kept his inning scoreless:

Jax looked locked in, 2024-style. He struck out Carpenter, Greene and Torkelson in order, mixing his assortment of pitches to perfection.

Then in the eighth, to everyone's surprise, Wallner laced a double the opposite way (against a lefty with an 0-2 count), to score Castro and provide a crucial insurance run.

Duran pitched an uneventful ninth to seal the win.

Trends:

	Healthy	Hurt
Performing
Contributing
Low Impact/Slumping
IL/Minors
C	Ryan Jeffers	Christian Vazquez
1B	Ty France ?
2B	Mickey Gasper ?	Brooks Lee ?	Edouard Julien ?
3B	Royce Lewis	Jose Miranda ?
SS	Carlos Correa
LF	Trevor Larnach ?
CF	Byron Buxton ?	Harrison Bader ?	DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
RF	Matt Wallner
UTIL	Willi Castro ?
SP1	Pablo Lopez	Bailey Ober ?	Joe Ryan ?
SP2	Chris Paddack	Simeon Woods Richardson
CR	Jhoan Duran ?	Griffin Jax
SR	Brock Stewart	Louis Varland	Cole Sands
MR	Danny Coloumbe	Justin Topa ?	Michael Tonkin
LR	Randy Dobnak	Jorge Alcala	Kody Funderburk

What’s Next: Joe Ryan (1-1, 2.65 ERA) takes on Clay Holmes (1-1, 4.30 ERA) as the Twins begin a three game set with the New York Mets. The Mets made it to the NLCS last year and added Juan Soto to their lineup, which so far has them leading the NL East. Holmes has spent the past three years as the Yankee's closer, but joined the Mets as a starting pitcher. His early results have been pretty uninspiring but there's nothing like facing the Twins to cure what ails a pitcher.

Postgame Interviews:

(coming soon)

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Sands	15	0	24	0	0	17	56
Alcalá	16	0	0	23	10	0	49
Funderburk	0	0	0	0	43	0	43
Jax	12	10	0	0	0	17	39
Topa	0	0	0	37	0	0	37
Durán	0	15	0	0	12	10	37
Varland	0	0	18	0	0	12	30
Coulombe	13	0	4	6	0	0	23

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[Nashvilletwin]

Funny how that works.  You don’t walk anyone, you catch the ball, you don’t throw it around the diamond, you get a few key hits, you run the bases well, your manager doesn’t do anything stupid, and your team leader shows up to play for a change. Wow, next thing you know, you win a ball game.  Who would have thought? 

It’s literally not rocket science.

Nice win. 

[Linus]

SWR is an interesting pitcher. He gets by with guts and mixing up four average pitches enough to get guys out eventually.  Thought maybe Varland would get a second inning to save some guys. 
Bader showed why having athletes is important: didn’t contribute with the bat but made an important catch. 
Time of game: 2:15.  Nice crisp game. 

[jorgenswest]

I couldn’t watch Julien with a 1-2 count last year. Today he went after a 1-2 pitch on the high outside corner of the strike zone. It is progress even if he fouls it off down the third base line. For now he has earned that spot at the top of the order. If he was worried about losing his spot to Brooks Lee he responded perfectly. Other need to follow suit.

[Karbo]

Great catch by Bader in left, Varland and Jax with mow 'em down innings. this is how the game should be played.

[Parfigliano]

Varland looked really really good.

[D.C Twins]

Two Words: World Series!

[shimrod]

So it was all Miranda's fault....

Seriously, this is what it's supposed to look like. Announcing crew mentioned several times the team seemed more upbeat. Even if they're faking it a couple more wins (or at least competitive losses) should improve the attitude. Improved attitude will mean improved play.

[Whitey333]

Well at this pace we should continue to be winning one of every three games.  We are in a neck and neck race with the White Sox for last place.  Good game today though!  Only negative I really saw today was having to use the bullpen so much again today to try and nail down a win.  That isn't sustainable. Go Twins

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, D.C Twins said:

Two Words: World Series!

Five Hundred

[jmlease1]

Julien is a good fit for the leadoff spot if he's made the adjustments that will keep him hitting. Nice to see him doing well right now, and hopefully he's got his confidence back.

Reasonable choice to pull SWR; I suspect they might have let him go longer if it was a bigger lead. He doesn't dominate, but he keeps the team in the game.

Hope Ryan can go deep against the Mets, and the offense can generate enough to give us a chance.

[JD-TWINS]

SEVEN straight solid starts by 6 different guys over the last 7 days. Not really on same page with overuse of the PEN strife? 3-4 relief pitchers are a pretty normal usage throughout today’s game…..get used to it since Team has been doing this for years.

Relievers gotta be able to throw 14-18 pitches every other day without being “overloaded” …… that’s 4 innings a week in a busy week!

If Team scored more than 3 runs routinely the Twins would be in first place.

Ty France, for now, seems to be the least of the Team’s worries……..Buxton .192 BA …… Larnach .189 BA ……..Correa .164 BA …….Lewis out & we’re counting on Brooks Lee for an offensive spark.

I do agree that Julien has earned AB’s with recent scrappiness and performance at the plate.

Does Matthews pitch on Monday or Joe Ryan?

[Mahoning]

SWR battles and gives it all he has, every time. I'll bet his teammates love him. Rocco should have let him go longer, but this time, for a change, the relievers didn't fail. A well-played game.

[Vanimal46]

Always good to start the week with a win. Wasn’t able to watch today but I am happy to read about a solid SWR start… Also, Harrison Bader is a pretty easy guy to root for. He brings some hustle and swagger to a team that severely lacks both. 

[rv78]

2 hours ago, shimrod said:

So it was all Miranda's fault....

Seriously, this is what it's supposed to look like. Announcing crew mentioned several times the team seemed more upbeat. Even if they're faking it a couple more wins (or at least competitive losses) should improve the attitude. Improved attitude will mean improved play.

Umm Correa didn't play. Maybe it's his fault. Last win was Wednesday and that day Buxton didn't play. I see a pattern developing here.

[Blyleven2011]

Was a good performance  , a team effort  , good hustle by Bader  , looks like we found out everyday leftfielder , now if he could only hit a bit , like 250 average  ...

Here comes the Mets  ,  clay Holmes  against Joe Ryan  ...

Holmes has been a reliever and Mets made him a starter  , let's send him back to the bullpen and whip his arse  , don't make him look like a Cy young  candidate  ...

 

[Blyleven2011]

24 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Umm Correa didn't play. Maybe it's his fault. Last win was Wednesday and that day Buxton didn't play. I see a pattern developing here.

I had the same thought about the day off pattern for Buxton and Correa  , I didn't want to hurt my fingers and write it myself  ...

Thanks ...

[Vanimal46]

The Joe Mauer statue also looks really cool. Love that he’s a catcher throwing someone out at 2B 

[knothole61]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

SEVEN straight solid starts by 6 different guys over the last 7 days. Not really on same page with overuse of the PEN strife? 3-4 relief pitchers are a pretty normal usage throughout today’s game…..get used to it since Team has been doing this for years.

Relievers gotta be able to throw 14-18 pitches every other day without being “overloaded” …… that’s 4 innings a week in a busy week!

If Team scored more than 3 runs routinely the Twins would be in first place.

Ty France, for now, seems to be the least of the Team’s worries……..Buxton .192 BA …… Larnach .189 BA ……..Correa .164 BA …….Lewis out & we’re counting on Brooks Lee for an offensive spark.

I do agree that Julien has earned AB’s with recent scrappiness and performance at the plate.

Does Matthews pitch on Monday or Joe Ryan?

JD, of the three Mendoza Line players you've mentioned, I'm most concerned about Larnach. Buxton doesn't have to hit for average to give the Twins a boost; his occasional blasts, genuine speed on the bases, and fielding ability make him worthy of his keep. As for Correa: he will catch fire with the bat for a couple of stretches this year. He is, by all accounts, an inspirational team leader, and, of course, much is always forgiven a good-fielding shortstop. But Larnach...I'm not sure how valuable he's going to be for the rest of his career.

Although 2024 was his best year thus far, (and it wasn't anything spectacular) I can't forget his rather pedestrian 2023 campaign when he struck out at nearly a 35% rate, or about 10% over league average. He's 28, has neither a great glove, strong arm, nor speed on the base paths, and Rocco and others when interviewed often claim that he's about ready to break out and realize his full potential. I hope that they are correct, although I fear that we have seen his full potential already. He kind of looks lost at the plate right now-yes?

Oh, by the way, nice win today!     

[h2oface]

Baby steps.

[Karbo]

This announcing crew are complete "homers". I miss the good old days with Dick and Bert!

[jmlease1]

35 minutes ago, Karbo said:

This announcing crew are complete "homers". I miss the good old days with Dick and Bert!

I loved Bremer, but let's not pretend he wasn't a homer. Part of that was Dick is Mr. Positivity, but still.

And Bert wasn't much different that today's crew when it came criticizing Twins players and basically never took a poke at the manager or front office. 

When Dick & Bert were in their prime, it was great, but you're clearly not remembering the last several seasons with Bert, where he was mailing it in and frankly dragging Bremer down with him. Bremer got a second wind when he got new partners.

[TwinsDr2021]

44 minutes ago, Karbo said:

This announcing crew are complete "homers". I miss the good old days with Dick and Bert!

I generally watch the other team's crew, sure they are homers about their side, but most also seem more objective about the Twins.

[Bodie]

13 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Well at this pace we should continue to be winning one of every three games.  We are in a neck and neck race with the White Sox for last place.  Good game today though!  Only negative I really saw today was having to use the bullpen so much again today to try and nail down a win.  That isn't sustainable. Go Twins

It isn't sustainable, but it ain't going to change.

You want the honest evaluation, by the Twins, of thier pitching, look at the usage.  If they refuse to ever let a guy go the third time through the order. 

Rocco looks at his staff and doesn't see anyone who is above a ~3 slot starter. Top of the rotation guys can give more than 6 innings.  Mid rotation guys can get through a couple of times, but not much more consistently.   End of the rotation/long reliever can't  consistently get through twice.

Rocco, by his use of the starters says the Twins have nothing above average #3 guy.  The FO apparently agrees, as the outright abuse of the bullpen is a detrimental to both the team's record,  and is a turn off for fans (longer games equal fewer eyes watching).

[Doctor Wu]

After Ty France led off with a duck snort single ...

I love that term! Here's hoping for more "duck snort singles" !

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, knothole61 said:

JD, of the three Mendoza Line players you've mentioned, I'm most concerned about Larnach. Buxton doesn't have to hit for average to give the Twins a boost; his occasional blasts, genuine speed on the bases, and fielding ability make him worthy of his keep. As for Correa: he will catch fire with the bat for a couple of stretches this year. He is, by all accounts, an inspirational team leader, and, of course, much is always forgiven a good-fielding shortstop. But Larnach...I'm not sure how valuable he's going to be for the rest of his career.

Although 2024 was his best year thus far, (and it wasn't anything spectacular) I can't forget his rather pedestrian 2023 campaign when he struck out at nearly a 35% rate, or about 10% over league average. He's 28, has neither a great glove, strong arm, nor speed on the base paths, and Rocco and others when interviewed often claim that he's about ready to break out and realize his full potential. I hope that they are correct, although I fear that we have seen his full potential already. He kind of looks lost at the plate right now-yes?

Oh, by the way, nice win today!     

Nobody contributes at .192 & striking out - Buxton will come around……time and a couple of breaks will help.

Correa’s leadership seems overhyped to me - he is a professional most of the time but he has lapses like most. His bat is what the Team needs and he seems lost.

Larnach makes the minimum but has the potential (‘24) to be a solid contributor when healthy. If he stays fit he should come around.

Group effort in the line-up breeds pressure on opposing pitchers and everyone benefits. Need the group to pick it up one guy at a time.

[JD-TWINS]

47 minutes ago, Bodie said:

It isn't sustainable, but it ain't going to change.

You want the honest evaluation, by the Twins, of thier pitching, look at the usage.  If they refuse to ever let a guy go the third time through the order. 

Rocco looks at his staff and doesn't see anyone who is above a ~3 slot starter. Top of the rotation guys can give more than 6 innings.  Mid rotation guys can get through a couple of times, but not much more consistently.   End of the rotation/long reliever can't  consistently get through twice.

Rocco, by his use of the starters says the Twins have nothing above average #3 guy.  The FO apparently agrees, as the outright abuse of the bullpen is a detrimental to both the team's record,  and is a turn off for fans (longer games equal fewer eyes watching).

They are 16 games into the season……..how is the bullpen being abused? …….starters are often built up on pitches over the first 3-4 starts of the year - pretty typical.

Through Saturday, 7 of the guys in our PEN currently have thrown between 4.2 - 6.1 innings to date. Varland had thrown 8.0 innings.

An average Starter’s innings in 2023 was 5.18 & in 2024 it was 5.24……….in 2024 the Twins starters averaged 5.26 innings. This includes the Bailey Ober 1 2/3 inning blow ups, etc.

Nobody expects Paddack to throw more than 110-120 innings all year - SWR is going to push for 150 innings plus - Festa, maybe 135 innings. 5.25 innings x 30 starts is 157.5 innings for the year. Lopez has averaged about 185 - 190 innings over past 2 years - Ryan, if healthy is targeting 180 innings (5.8 innings per start in ‘24) - Ober, essentially same as Ryan (178.1 innings in ‘24).

Do not see any glaring issues with how pitching is being deployed…….”length of games” is certainly not a criteria to manage by at any level.

 

[Strombomb]

Great article. Well written but your trends chart is confusing. @Hans Birkeland

[David Maro]

Good win today but don't forget the same manager is still in dugout.

[laloesch]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

 …….starters are often built up on pitches over the first 3-4 starts of the year - pretty typical.

Incorrect.  Starters USED to be built up prior to the start of the regular season starting.  It's only the past 12-15 years that has changed and it's stretched into the beginning of the regular season.