The Twins' Slow Start Shows Things Aren't Different Enough

[John Bonnes]

It was supposed to be different.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Spring training was all about how it would be different. Different than the 12-27 finish that ended the Twins' season and plunged them to fourth place in the AL Central.

Less individual work. More team drills and meetings. Less swinging for the fences. More putting the ball in play. Less rest. More spring training games, even including veterans going on road trips.

It was all different – except how the season started. This year’s 2-5 start is reminiscent of last year’s 3-6 start. Last year, by April 21st, the Twins were 7-13 and were already eight games back in the division. Even a remarkable, sausage-themed 12-game winning streak that month wasn’t enough to close that early gap, and they never regained first place in the AL Central.

Sure, there are 155 more games to play. But under Rocco Baldelli, slow starts have often led to disappointing finishes. In 2022, the team started 4-8 and collapsed down the stretch, going 11-22 in September. The 2021 season followed a similar pattern, with the Twins starting 7-15, falling seven games back early, and ultimately finishing last in the division, 20 games behind first place.

Alternately, hot starts in 2019 (13-7), 2020 (10-2), and 2023 (10-4) have led to AL Central crowns. The pattern has been consistent: good starts have been paired with strong finishes. Bad starts preceded breakdowns as if the team ran out of gas from chasing the division leader for most of the season.

The changes this spring were an attempt to fix that. “Everything you're doing here is for that push at the end," Baldelli said early in spring training. "Many of these things also extend out into the long baseball season and how it's going to help us long-term. If we can do all this the way we want to do it, I think you will see the effects of this in August and September and beyond."

Maybe it will have an impact in August and September, but it sure hasn’t in March & April. Everything looks broken right now. Starting pitchers have been shelled. The bullpen has also shown some leaks. But the biggest concern is the lineup, which is averaging just a shade over three runs per game and has the lowest OPS in the American League.

There was a change in batting coaches after last year's collapse. The team wanted to refine its approach at the plate, simplifying its offensive philosophy to maximize consistency. "Yeah, some of it’s kind of bringing it back to the way we have probably thought about hitting for a long time," Baldelli explained this spring. "It really comes down to swinging at the right pitches consistently and hitting line drives. I think we’ve probably, at times, made it a more complicated task than it is."

Turns out it's still complicated. The team as a whole is hitting .180 through its first seven games. They’re dead last in MLB in on-base percentage.

Maybe most concerning is that the experience is eerily similar to that of watching the team last August and September. Last year, injuries to veterans Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa hampered the team’s ability to stop their freefall. This year, another key contributor, Royce Lewis, has yet to play a game, and his replacement, Jose Miranda, has had a miserable start.

Last year, multiple younger players looked like they just ran out of gas at the end of a long season. With struggles continuing into this year for Miranda and Edouard Julien, and Brooks Lee out due to another back injury, it’s fair to ask if they ran out of gas or if they just weren’t ready. And if they still aren’t ready, and even whether they’ll ever be ready to fulfill the promise the team projected upon them.

That’s the question the team and its fans are wrestling with: were we wrong about this team? Will this 2025 team be more like the 2024 team that was 17 games above .500 in mid-August or the team that was 15 games under .500 the last month and a half?

It’s obviously too early to tell, but the early signs have been foreboding, especially because things don't look different. 

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What would you do different? Tell us in the comments below.

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[Fezig]

Nothing changes until the guy leading the team does. 

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  I agree that this team as of now looks eerily similar to last years team that collapsed.  There is no fire or drive in this team that has plagued them a lot recently.  The team plays listless and often times boring baseball.  They are a definite reflection of Baldelli.  No urgency, no drive, no desire to win and always making excuses.  Rocco needs to go.  

[Karbo]

It is early yet, but it sure seems like "Rocco has lost the room" as they say. There is plenty of time to turn things around, but they really need to get going or it will be another season of chasing, and empty seats.

[Doctor Gast]

I think it's great that the Twins are working on situational hitting & running the bases more but most of the players that are good at those things aren't playing & those who aren't so good at it are. After focusing on the "all or nothing" approach in '24 ST & early slump, they changed their hitting approach with Popkins & turned the team around. IMO, the '24 late season crash was due to not obtaining early in the season an inning-eater SP to preserve the SPs & RPs, not trading for a high-leverage LHRP, injuries to Miranda & Kiriloff, the petering out of Lewis & Jeffers & the cratering of the team's chemistry & fire.

Popkins & his crew was blamed for the Twins' woes. Funny that it seems that Popkins has turned the lapless TOR hitting around. There might be other reasons that Twins aren't doing so well early this season but one thing hasn't changed from last year's slumping & that is the team's lack of chemistry & fire that drove the team in '23.

[UpstateNewYorker]

IMHO the roster's position players, talent-wise, are just not that good, and it shows when you have two potential starters (Lewis and Lee) injured. How many of our guys would be starters on a playoff-caliber team?  France, Julien, Miranda, Gasper ... even Jeffers, Bader, Castro and Larnach are probably not every-day players on a "good" MLB team.

[LambchoP]

As others have said, the team just looks "dead". No fire, no fight. Guys aren't having fun or playing loose. It sure looks like they're just going through the motions. If they get bad results, oh well, no biggy, jog back to the bench. No consequences. Bader seems like someone who is trying to ignite some life into the team. Buck can do this too when he's going good. I really think the lineup is going to need a shake up at the deadline if we're still in the race. If not, the off-season. We going to need a real first baseman. Luke Keaschal should take over second as soon as he's able to play the field everyday. We also need a catcher that can hit. I love all this pitching depth, but we're going to have to give up something to get some offensive pop unless new ownership goes out and signs and impact player or two.

[tony&rodney]

The front office sat around and waited to sign or trade for an aging veteran or two the last couple of years. There were opportunities and it is hard to believe that no organization in baseball is willing to work out transactions with the Twins. So, here we are with the same team speed, below average defense, and iffy bats. Transactions/trades are difficult but rolling back the same team is tough too. I guess we just wait for a sale of the team when the house gets cleaned out.

[LastOnePicked]

"Sure, there are 155 more games to play. But under Rocco Baldelli, slow starts have often led to disappointing finishes."

I'm confused. I've been a Gleeman and the Geek listener for years, and I've been reliably reassured that a manager is never, ever the cause of a team's struggles. It doesn't matter if that team faces nearly a total roster turnover over the years and yet still exhibits the same faults - it's NEVER the manager's fault. Is that gospel somehow changing?

[ladrossetwin]

Its hard to look like you have "life" if no one is hitting. Unfortunately the team as currently constructed really needs a productive Royce Lewis in the lineup and he has either been injured or in a slump in all the stretches of poor play last year and the start of this year. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

IMHO the roster's position players, talent-wise, are just not that good, and it shows when you have two potential starters (Lewis and Lee) injured. How many of our guys would be starters on a playoff-caliber team?  France, Julien, Miranda, Gasper ... even Jeffers, Bader, Castro and Larnach are probably not every-day players on a "good" MLB team.

I’m with you here with some minor nits. You’re right that France, Bader, Castro, and Larnach are not every day players in an MLB contending team. They would be a good bench for that team.  Julien and Miranda are maybes at AAA on that team as is Lee, who also isn’t a MLB starting caliber player yet. 

The bigger problem is that the starting caliber players we have are complimentary hitters with no middle of the order bats, except for maybe Lewis. Buxton and Correa are glove first players who can hit some, not offensive leaders. Wallner and Jeffers are nice young(ish) hitters. What we have is a collection of hitters who should hit 5, 6, or later in a good lineup and no one good enough to hit 2, 3, or 4. Again. Hard to fix that. 

[tony&rodney]

Sounds like people believe that Royce Lewis is the only chance the Twins have. Where does Royce rank among AL Central third baseman? In a draft for the 2025 season, what players would you choose in which order to play third base for your team?

[TopGunn#22]

You can only shuffle the deck chairs so many ways on a Twins team that looks very much like the Titanic.  

FIRST:  Baseball is a long season and we're 6 games in.  There is time to right this ship.

SECOND:  While the above may be true, this is a pattern and a symptom of Rocco managed teams.  We've seen this before and even just 6 games in, this team looks listless.  There is no spark.  When teams hit as poorly as the Twins have to start the season, everything looks bad. 

We could have predicted the inevitable cooling off of Ty France, but the continued lack of progress or consistency from Miranda and Julien and the absence of Lewis and Lee certainly aren't helping.  I'm 100% on board with getting Luke Keaschall up ASAP to play 2B.  He can't be worse than Julien, Castro or whoever else has played there. 

I predict the starting pitching will level up.  Ober had a bad start.  Lopez was like a kid in little league when the Cards had not one, but two guys just bolt for second base and Pablo didn't handle either very well.  He followed that up with a solid game.  Joe Ryan got stung by a couple long balls, but in general, our "Big 3" should be fine. 

Rocco will continue to befuddle with bullpen management however and it will be end April at the earliest before Lewis is back.  Brooks Lee is anyone's guess.

It's time to have Larnach start taking grounders etc...at 1B.  His time in LF will be split with Bader already and eventually there will be Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins to compete with.  Larnach is one of the few guys who doesn't look bad at the plate despite his .236 average.  He's 6:4 and to be honest, as much as the Twins like to stress positional flexibility, with the eventual arrival of E-Rod and Jenkins and the gaping hole at 1B, I can't believe this move hasn't already been made.

An eventual lineup that has Keaschall at 2B, E-Rod splitting time in LF with Bader and Larnach at 1B with Lewis at 3B makes a lot of sense to me.  It's well past time to spin Miranda and Julien out of here in any kind of trade that makes sense while those guys still have some value. 

It's up to Rocco to see and anticipate what changes need to be made.  Unfortunately, I have had little faith in Rocco since 2021 or so to figure it out.  Is Toby Gardenhire our manager in waiting?  

 

[Blyleven2011]

It's still complicated  ...

What I would do differently is fire Rocco  , the players we have do have talent but Rocco and his coaches do not know how to address this ...

Spring training was the time to address the issues and get this cleaned up , nothing has changed from 2024 except falvey got promoted to another higher title and we hired new hitting coaches ...

[AKTwinsFan]

The whole division is almost the same right now. 2-4 - 2-5. Maybe some need to try out torpedo bats. Or just try swinging for contact once in a while instead of for power. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

35 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

You can only shuffle the deck chairs so many ways on a Twins team that looks very much like the Titanic.  

FIRST:  Baseball is a long season and we're 6 games in.  There is time to right this ship.

SECOND:  While the above may be true, this is a pattern and a symptom of Rocco managed teams.  We've seen this before and even just 6 games in, this team looks listless.  There is no spark.  When teams hit as poorly as the Twins have to start the season, everything looks bad. 

We could have predicted the inevitable cooling off of Ty France, but the continued lack of progress or consistency from Miranda and Julien and the absence of Lewis and Lee certainly aren't helping.  I'm 100% on board with getting Luke Keaschall up ASAP to play 2B.  He can't be worse than Julien, Castro or whoever else has played there. 

I predict the starting pitching will level up.  Ober had a bad start.  Lopez was like a kid in little league when the Cards had not one, but two guys just bolt for second base and Pablo didn't handle either very well.  He followed that up with a solid game.  Joe Ryan got stung by a couple long balls, but in general, our "Big 3" should be fine. 

Rocco will continue to befuddle with bullpen management however and it will be end April at the earliest before Lewis is back.  Brooks Lee is anyone's guess.

It's time to have Larnach start taking grounders etc...at 1B.  His time in LF will be split with Bader already and eventually there will be Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins to compete with.  Larnach is one of the few guys who doesn't look bad at the plate despite his .236 average.  He's 6:4 and to be honest, as much as the Twins like to stress positional flexibility, with the eventual arrival of E-Rod and Jenkins and the gaping hole at 1B, I can't believe this move hasn't already been made.

An eventual lineup that has Keaschall at 2B, E-Rod splitting time in LF with Bader and Larnach at 1B with Lewis at 3B makes a lot of sense to me.  It's well past time to spin Miranda and Julien out of here in any kind of trade that makes sense while those guys still have some value. 

It's up to Rocco to see and anticipate what changes need to be made.  Unfortunately, I have had little faith in Rocco since 2021 or so to figure it out.  Is Toby Gardenhire our manager in waiting?  

 

I think this is a good analysis. I’ve never been on the fire Rocco bandwagon, but I’m looking into booking passage. This team looks very lifeless. I think the talent level is not as high as we sometimes thought but I also think that the team is playing far below its capabilities. I would be a favor of infusing the team with some talent that is currently in AAA and changing managers. I think if we wait until mid season for that it may be too late. The good news is that the division looks pretty bad this year so we can let things play out a little while, but it’s hard to see how things are going to change.

[Woof Bronzer]

What's more realistic, that this start isn't reflective of the team's potential...or that 2023 was the outlier, and the 21, 22, 24, and 25 versions are more representative of an organization, which, friendly reminder, has one ALDS victory in 35 years?  

  

[Mike Sixel]

When you sign France, Bader, and Gasper, it's the same strategy....I have no idea if Baldelli is good or not, but the front office needs to go. 

[Vanimal46]

It’s not exactly surprising the offense continues to struggle when we ran back the same team that collapsed last year. 

Last season I pushed back on firing Baldelli because I think Falvey’s gonna put another Baldelli clone in the role. Still feel that way today, but it might need to be done anyway. 

Once the team is sold, I’m ready for a clean sweep and starting fresh with a new FO, new manager, and new philosophy. 

[killertwinfan]

I can simplify your next article.  Stop waiving at pitches out of the zone or you will suck all season. 

[CRF]

What needs to change? Ownership, front office, and manager. There needs to be a bunch of different voices in this organization from top to bottom. There's a stale stench emanating from this franchise, and a fresh diaper, or new pair of odor eaters isn't gonna cut it. The guys in charge have to go. Yeah, you can make the argument that we could get something/someone worse...I'll take that chance. Bring it on. Only problem I see if Rocco somehow gets fired is...we'll get Tingler in his place, which probably won't be any better. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

IMHO the roster's position players, talent-wise, are just not that good, and it shows when you have two potential starters (Lewis and Lee) injured. How many of our guys would be starters on a playoff-caliber team?  France, Julien, Miranda, Gasper ... even Jeffers, Bader, Castro and Larnach are probably not every-day players on a "good" MLB team.

That's most of it. How many players do the Twins have who the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets or Phillies would prefer over their own players? Are there any position players? I think it would be mostly pitching.

I think the Central is still winnable, because those teams are also all flawed. Every win will matter, which is why a new manager might be necessary. Rocco isn't the worst MLB manager but he's also not the best.

[mluebker]

Near as I can tell, Baldelli basically does whatever the analytics tell him to do. So you might as well let ChatGPT manage the team. And right now, he’s got a team full of guys who either are average or below average at either fielding or hitting (pick one), and a small handful who are above average or even star-quality, but who spend way too much time on the IL when they’re needed on the field. I don’t think even an artificial intelligence can turn that into more than a .500 team. 

[Twins GFP]

Let me get this straight:
Batters choose when to swing and what they swing at
Pitchers have to execute on the mound
Rocco is to blame.

Nobody here has enough information to really say if Rocco is the right fit for this team. We generally can't speak to the value of any coach and how they "good" they are.  We see decisions that may be questionable, but we do not know the reasoning for most of the decisions.

How about we start holding the players accountable instead of blaming everyone but the players?

[PatPfund]

I get it. Long drab offseason, ST injuries, slow start. Worse there is some history to show fears "are" justified. Except they are just that, fears. Fears over-extrapolating a slow start.

Things to maybe note as well: After 6 games, the Twins were tied for first place. Only one SP has had a second chance to show his skill, and Lopez dominated in that show. Cleveland also had a (longer) rough start last year and won the division. I didn't see the second Saints game last night, but Festa, Matthews, and Morris all threw five shutout efficient innings to start the year.

This team has issues, but it also has two platinum glove starters, two cheap pickups who look great (yeah, I was a Bader hater, but so far...), top young talent at AAA, and the depth to fix pitching woes if they occur. Breath deep, it's a long season.

[RpR]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

When you sign France, Bader, and Gasper, it's the same strategy....I have no idea if Baldelli is good or not, but the front office needs to go. 

France, Bader, and Gasper, are NOT the problem.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

12 minutes ago, RpR said:

France, Bader, and Gasper, are NOT the only problem.

FTFY

France, Bader, and Gasper are symptoms of THE problem, and they are problems in and of themselves as a part of a team.

im not sure how the budget got so mismanaged, but THE problem is something to do with  4 players making up half of the payroll, one of them is a backup catcher and two of them are 100 game at most players (amazing as they are for those 100 games). It ultimately falls on the Pohlads and Falvey.

[Bodie]

The problem with this Twins team is shockingly simple.  The solution less so.

The vast majority of current Twins are, by execution, simply one-dimenional players.  Not by skills or abilities, but in what they actually do on the field.

Swing from the heels no matter what.  High launch angel, no matter the player and his strengths and weaknesses especially.  "Go full Dave Kingman, so when you hit it it goes far".

Buxton would have a similar average if he bunted every AB.  His actual speed would beat out nearly a hit a game if he literally did nothing else. That doesn't count the times he gets on due to his potential speed - defenders botching makable plays trying to be perfect to get speedy Byron. 

You can count the number of bunt attempts from last season on one hand.  For the team.  Buxton ought to drop a bunt once a series, minimum. Move the IFs in half a step, and the angles move in the hitters favor.  

Twins opponents know that the Twins won't ever bunt, sacrifice or apply consistent pressure on the bases.  And that when they try, they will look like little leaguers in the execution. 

 

Ask Terry Fracona which iteration of the Twins is easier- the Kingman-esque slugging Twins of last year (as a specific example) or an earlier version where any player might be called on to drop down a bunt.  Or run the bases both aggressively and intelligently.

 

Instead we take a Roy Smalley type player (good/plus contact, "good gap power" and acceptable (but consistent) defense) and focus on power to the exclusion of anything else.  Instead of a .270 13 80 line, we are treated to a .240ish 18 65 line and little to no effort on defense or baserunning.  "We maximized his power." will be the rallying cry, while ignoring the fact that if that player doesn't hit a homer in that game he has almost zero chance of providing any positive at all.  Why?  Because it has never been emphasized in their pro career that there is more than one way to skin that proverbial cat.

The Twins approach to said cat has been very simple - sledgehammer to the head.  Very effective when done right.  Very messy and unappealing when botched!

This isn't going to be fixed with a new hitting coach hyping a new and improved cat skinning method. The guys coming up (not to mention those already here) have been immersed in the "max effort swing = good results" ethos their entire career.  It got 'em to the Bigs.  Why change now, especially if a .170 average with a homer every 10 games will get you regular playing time. (see Joey whose name we shall not mention)

Edited April 6, 2025 by Bodie
Busted doesn't mean bunted

[Dave Borton]

Shoot, it's not even mid-April and I am changing the dial from Twins to listen to the Tigers and then the Dodgers games on the radio, while checking the box score of the Twins.

 

[Maybebaby]

When you sign France, Bader, and Gasper, it's the same strategy as putting pink flamingos in your front yard and saying you've upgraded your house!