Will the Twins Ever Invest in Size at First Base?

[Peter Labuza]

The team hasn’t necessarily struggled at the slug-first position, but they are once again disregarding size. 

Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

Ever since Luis Arráez made the switch to first base, the Twins have embraced their short kings. A team that once played the towering Miguel Sanó has seemingly taken a different approach quite different from much of the league, where first basemen like Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson (both 6’5”) are often front and center. 

Due to a myriad of factors, they are set to go down the same path once again.

And while the Twins lack a true big bopper, they have actually done solid at the position. Carlos Santana (5’11”) won a Gold Glove last year while becoming a rock solid bat. Donovan Solano (5’9”) fit in well. And Arráez (5’10”) certainly played better at first than any other position. While none were sluggers, the offense has thus been solid enough for 13th in the league since 2021 in offensive fWAR. That suggests a modicum of talent. 

Just how short are the Twins? In a recent study, first basemen were the tallest by height (as well as the heaviest by weight) of all the non-pitching positions. But I wanted to see if the eye test matched the data. To determine how teams have used height at first base, I looked at the height of every person to field for even a third of an inning at first base, and how many innings they played between 2022 and 2024:

In addition to BIG1, I made a plus stat entitled BIG1+, similar to BIG1+ where 100 is the average league score, helping show the difference:

Team	BIG1	BIG1+
ATL	686.03	114.9
LAD	685.25	114.5
BAL	673.41	108.6
TEX	669.05	106.5
PHI	668.62	106.3
NYY	668.35	106.2
BOS	667.15	105.6
COL	663.99	104.1
STL	663.05	103.7
NYM	661.64	103
MIA	661.48	103
MIL	659.93	102.2
Average	649.95	100
TOR	654.81	99.9
LAA	652.71	98.9
HOU	651.51	98.4
CHC	651.4	98.3
SFG	651.26	98.3
WSN	651.24	98.3
KCR	651.2	98.2
CHW	650.06	97.7
SDP	649.69	97.6
TBR	649.56	97.5
OAK	647.44	96.5
MIN	641.98	94.1
ARI	641.71	94
CIN	638.39	92.6
DET	637.68	92.2
PIT	636.38	91.7
SEA	636.37	91.7
CLE	635.81	91.4

As we can see, the Twins have ranked quite close to the bottom of the league, though perhaps closer to the average than what might we imagine. But the top teams are more than twice above the average compared to how the far the Twins are back from the average.

But diving further, a curious pattern emerges. The Twins have had not just a single short king at first but a steady diet of them over the years. For example, Ty France (5’10”) recorded over 3,000 innings with Seattle at first base since 2022 with only a handful of Mariner players filling in around 250 innings. The Twins, on the other hand, have had five player record over 500 innings at the position (and doesn’t even include Joey Gallo). That’s the most in the league (only the Pirates have had four).  

Notably, the Twins are seemingly set to do the same again, and not just with France, but the whole range of new first basemen this season. Not only is there no set first baseman, likely meaning a wide variety of players in the position. But also, none of them need to duck when crossing doorways:

Player	Height (Inches)	Projected Games (ZIPS)
Ty France	70	136
Edouard Julien	70	134
Jose Miranda	72	121
Mickey Gasper	68	96
Mike Ford	70	88

So why go down this path and continue to do so?

Mostly, their big boppers have simply not panned out. Alex Kirilloff ended his career after a bizarre spine injury pushed him out. No team bothered to even send Sanó a non-roster invite for spring training. Gallo...happened. And Miranda has only received minimal playing time this spring there, suggesting the team might prefer him over in the other corner. Notably all these taller kids have performed poorly by defensive metrics like Outs About Average, while the short kings have at least been neutral to positive (or in Santana’s case, stellar). 

Secondly, the Twins are about to hit an infield crunch. Brooks Lee has essentially already arrived and Luke Keaschall is close beyond. While Willi Castro will depart at the end of the season, someone over at second or third might find a permanent relocation to the right. Plus, if France has the season the Twins hope, he might not come cheap for 2026.

For a team in need of improvements, only right field (where Max Kepler occupied for the same seasons) has ranked lower in terms of offensive output since 2021. It remains an obvious hole that could be filled with a trade (for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the deadline) or a free agent (by signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this winter). 

The Twins are well aware of the choice. After a recent spring training game, Rocco Baldelli responded to a question about Gasper’s profile a first base and specifically his height. “It’s not conventional, but we’ve done it here before…It’s certainly not an excluding factor.”

And yet, what becomes clear is that while many teams set a first basemen in place and sit comfortably for years, the Twins have yet to develop a clear plan for the future. Perhaps if a ball or two goes sailing above someone’s head, that will change. 

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[tony&rodney]

All things considered, height at first base most definitely makes a difference. Naturally, those taller players do need to be proficient at the foot work, reading throws, scooping balls, and knowing where to go on every play. The Twins have struggled to find their full time guy who plugs into the lineup on an every day basis. I have wondered whether Carson McCusker has ever taken ground balls or throws at the bag. Clearly the Twins do not believe either of Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner would work successfully at that corner. So the team has to continue with their experimentations. France is about as rough as it gets with a glove at first base and one wonders what the Twins think about Miranda's work there. Maybe later this year Baldelli will call on Payton Eeles to hold down first base. At least we know that Carlos Correa will continue to put his throws right to the fielder's chest, whether on a line or on one easy hop.

[Jocko87]

39 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

At least we know that Carlos Correa will continue to put his throws right to the fielder's chest, whether on a line or on one easy hop.

This is part of what makes it matter so much less than it used to. Years ago, with less predictable surfaces, putting the ball on the ground was a major risk. Throws would have to err on the high side and a tall dude mattered a lot.

Now that the long hop is mainstream and a predictable hop is almost assured with manicured fields slightly different skills play. Correa and other infielders can throw it much harder with less risk and height isn't a limiting factor.

[Doctor Gast]

Evidently, height doesn't figure into the Twins equation of choosing a 1B. If they did our inhouse Miranda would make the most sense & not only height. Who knows what he plugs into his computer to come up with his choices. I would think 6'8 McClusker would be a good candidate to groom for 1B. Baldelli says he values 1B but who does he really groom at 1B? Sabato? It seems that he tries players at 2B, 3B or RF & if they can't play there, he'd throw them at 1B & let them figure it out.

[dxpavelka]

That clear plan for the future SHOULD be Royce Lewis. Would LOVE to see the IF settle in on Lewis at 1B, Keaschall at 2B, Lee at 3B & Correa at SS for the next 2-4 years.  There should be a fairly large bubble of guys knocking at the doorstep in about two years.  Expect to hear a lot about names like Kaelen Culpepper, Kyle DeBarge, Danny DeAndrade & Santiago Leon. 

[dxpavelka]

11 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Evidently, height doesn't figure into the Twins equation of choosing a 1B. If they did our inhouse Miranda would make the most sense & not only height. Who knows what he plugs into his computer to come up with his choices. I would think 6'8 McClusker would be a good candidate to groom for 1B. Baldelli says he values 1B but who does he really groom at 1B? Sabato? It seems that he tries players at 2B, 3B or RF & if they can't play there, he'd throw them at 1B & let them figure it out.

Throwing guys who don't work out elsewhere in at 1B has been a common practice for about a hundred and fifty years.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

All things considered, height at first base most definitely makes a difference. Maybe later this year Baldelli will call on Payton Eeles to hold down first base. At least we know that Carlos Correa will continue to put his throws right to the fielder's chest, whether on a line or on one easy hop. 
 

Eeles is 5’6” 🤣

 

AK was the investment and he retired so they will find another guy to invest in. Meanwhile its a platoon of anyone with a pulse…

[dxpavelka]

Height is more of a "nice to have but not terribly essential" thing at 1B.  I'd be more concerned with having a guy who can hit the cover off the ball and hopefully play a little defense as well.  If he's tall that's cool.

[thelanges5]

Larnach or Wallner (both 6’4”) could move to 1B to make room for Emma or Jenkins. We have Amick (6’1”) in the farm system who could be ready in 2026. 

[Doctor Gast]

21 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Throwing guys who don't work out elsewhere in at 1B has been a common practice for about a hundred and fifty years.

Although that is very true. My point is many of these players should be evaluated much sooner that they don't have the ability to play those more demanding positions & given time to better perfect their play at 1B.  They come up to MLB & can't adequately play those positions but still aren't groomed at 1B. Because they aren't groomed at 1B, it's their excuse to keep playing them at the positions they're not able to excel. Thus seriously compromises our defense.

[dxpavelka]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Although that is very true. My point is many of these players should be evaluated much sooner that they don't have the ability to play those more demanding positions & given time to better perfect their play at 1B.  They come up to MLB & can't adequately play those positions but still aren't groomed at 1B. Because they aren't groomed at 1B, it's their excuse to keep playing them at the positions they're not able to excel. Thus seriously compromises our defense.

IF they had any defensive chops they wouldn't have been moved to 1B in the first place.  Moving them isn't going to magically make them Keith Hernandez.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1B is a mess and the revolving door will only muddy things further. One thing I can add with certainty, Vlad Guerrero will not be a Twin anytime soon. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Correa and other infielders can throw it much harder with less risk and height isn't a limiting factor.

Yes, this is possible, but thus far Correa is the only guy on the roster capable of making that play. The Twins will need to play the guys they have but a few extra inches of stretch at first base would be huge for all Twins infielders except for Correa.

[USAFChief]

"(First base) remains an obvious hole that could be filled with a trade (for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the deadline) or a free agent (by signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this winter)."

 

Color me skeptical. 

[old nurse]

So where is the statistical analysis of size mattering for 1b play? It would take a fairly large sample size. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Although that is very true. My point is many of these players should be evaluated much sooner that they don't have the ability to play those more demanding positions & given time to better perfect their play at 1B.  They come up to MLB & can't adequately play those positions but still aren't groomed at 1B. Because they aren't groomed at 1B, it's their excuse to keep playing them at the positions they're not able to excel. Thus seriously compromises our defense.

It is because you don't need to groom first basemen, it is the easiest position on the field to play. Nobody groomed Harper or Vlad, they just gave them a glove and said go do what you do (Be athletic and catch the ball) There is some foot work that needs to be taught but again shouldn't be that difficult to grasp the concept.  For guys that aren't that athletic(Wallner) it might be a bit harder, but you keep them close to the bag until they become more comfortable. As a former college first basemen the idea that first is a defensive position seems utterly ridiculous

[stringer bell]

Yeah, I’ve not been an advocate of shorter guys at first base. Also, they have seldom used a left handed thrower as a first sacker.

It’s really hard to measure the impact of having an extra couple inches in reach at first, but it has to make some difference. 

[gman]

Brandon Winokur is big enough to play 1st base. It'll be interesting to see if he play significant games at Witchita this year, of course he has to get through Cedar Rapids first.

[ashbury]

Base Inches Per Game At First is the analytics stat that finally wins over the average fan!

[Peter Labuza]

7 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Base Inches Per Game At First is the analytics stat that finally wins over the average fan!

sometimes we like to have a little fun at TD...

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Peter Labuza said:

sometimes we like to have a little fun at TD...

As well as in the comments section.   "Your name is Inigo Pohlad. You killed my team. Prepare to die."

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

1B is a mess and the revolving door will only muddy things further. One thing I can add with certainty, Vlad Guerrero will not be a Twin anytime soon. 

I know.  Where was that coming from.  Half a billion dollars.  Doesn't matter WHO owns this team.  That ain't happening

 

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

 

AK was the investment and he retired so they will find another guy to invest in. Meanwhile its a platoon of anyone with a pulse…

AK wasn't really an "investment" he was more of a "hope" who didn't make it anywhere else so we throw him in at 1B.  If your "investment" retires with a career .1 WAR, you might want to reevaluate your portfolio.  His biggest career achievement was that he team had enough confidence in him as a 1B that they felt they could trade a batting champion for the closest thing they've had to an ace in a generation.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It is because you don't need to groom first basemen, it is the easiest position on the field to play. Nobody groomed Harper or Vlad, they just gave them a glove and said go do what you do (Be athletic and catch the ball) There is some foot work that needs to be taught but again shouldn't be that difficult to grasp the concept.  For guys that aren't that athletic(Wallner) it might be a bit harder, but you keep them close to the bag until they become more comfortable. As a former college first basemen the idea that first is a defensive position seems utterly ridiculous

I'm getting the feeling that in college you were probably a mediocre 1B on defense and therefore can easily proclaim that 1B being a defensive position is utterly ridiculous.  I wonder what MLB players would say about that.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

It is because you don't need to groom first basemen, it is the easiest position on the field to play. Nobody groomed Harper or Vlad, they just gave them a glove and said go do what you do (Be athletic and catch the ball) There is some foot work that needs to be taught but again shouldn't be that difficult to grasp the concept.  For guys that aren't that athletic(Wallner) it might be a bit harder, but you keep them close to the bag until they become more comfortable. As a former college first basemen the idea that first is a defensive position seems utterly ridiculous

I agree with you, I don't think that 1B is that difficult. I've played some 1B too, the footwork came naturally for me. But I'm not the manager for Twins & it seems that the reason that they have to bring in veterans is because our inhouse players aren't proficient enough.

[Craig Arko]

Would love to see another Justin Morneau come out of the system. Get on that.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

All other things being equal, having a taller player at first base would be preferable.  However, all other things are NEVER equal.  There are certainly successful diminutive first basemen in the league.   If you have a guy who's 5'8" that can hit the cover off the ball and play passable defense, he's going to be our first baseman and no one will care about his height.  If he can't hit, his height will be more of a problem. . .

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, gman said:

Brandon Winokur is big enough to play 1st base. It'll be interesting to see if he play significant games at Witchita this year, of course he has to get through Cedar Rapids first.

Winokur at first would be a waste of athleticism and a great arm.  Playing him at 1B would devalue him.

[Major League Ready]

There are a few internal options I could see happening...

Walner or Larnach when one of Rodriguez and Jenkins arrive or both,

Lewis when Culpepper arrives.

Julien when Keaschall gets here if Julien can learn to pick a throw.  He has terrible hands for an infielder.

Miranda steps up this year and earns the job going forward.

They could trade Larnach for a 1B or Catcher if Rodriquez works out.

[DocBauer]

I think a combination of a few things happened over the course of a few seasons that had lead down this particular path:

1] Sano's decline after 2019 was rapid.

2] Kirilloff, a top Twin prospect and top 100 prospect, simply couldn't stay healthy. 

3] First round draft choice Sabato turned out to be a bust. 

Now, that doesn't excuse the FO from not finding an alternate option at 1B. But I don't know that the FO has necessarily had the funds to pursue a FA 1B option. And i don't know that they haven't responded about as well as could be expected under the circumstances. 

1B is the bottom of the defensive ladder. That doesn't mean there isn't a difference between a good 1B and a poor 1B, but it's simply not the same as most other positions. And yes, having a larger target there, with a greater reach, is a benefit. But just being large doesn't mean you can move your feet on dig throws out of the dirt, etc. 

If you asked me who would I "throw" over at 1B when I had a hole, either A) a 6' 4" OF who's only ever played on the grass (at least most of his life) or B) an INFIELDER who's played most of his life on the dirt, fielding balls, digging balls, taking and making throws, I'd probably pick option "B".

I'm not saying someone like Larnach...for example purposes...simply has no ability to transition in to at least a competent 1B. But I believe what the FO has basically done is move guys, small in stature, over to 1B because they were available, and needed a place, could do the job, and they needed someone to do that job. Personally, I'd like my 1B 6' or taller just to have that little extra reach. But if he's got a good, contributing bat and isn't 6', but handles the defensive end of things well to really good, I'm not going to care so much about his height.

I do think that when Keaschall arrives, there's the potential for a shake up. Maybe he plays 1B with his 6' height and good bat. MAYBE...as some have proposed...the best OVERALL INF is Lewis at 1B, followed by Keaschall, Correa, and Lee across the dirt. Maybe with Rodriguez close and Jenkins not too far behind, someone like Larnach DOES get moved to 1B and you just work with him the best you can to get the best results.

But I don't believe the Twins in any way have deliberately looked for shorter 1B. It's just been a combination of hopefulls not working out, and options available for the right cost being available that could/did work out.