Why Joe Ryan is a Legitimate Candidate for the 2025 American League Cy Young Award

[Cody Schoenmann]

He was one of the best AL starting pitchers last season, before suffering a season-ending Grade 2 teres major strain in early August. Could 2025 be a career year for the 28-year-old, despite returning from a serious injury?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

When discussing starting pitcher Joe Ryan's progress with reporters in Fort Myers last weekend, Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli sounded not only unconcerned, but excited.

"In regards to (Ryan's) build-up, he is completely on the path of what the pitching coaches want to do with him," the skipper said.

Baldelli then affirmed that the 28-year-old righty is on a standard pitching plan and is no longer operating under rehabilitation protocols. That's a welcome development for a club struck by multiple injuries to pitchers. Ryan appears on track to be a member of the starting rotation on Opening Day. 

Before sustaining the shoulder injury while pitching against the Chicago Cubs last summer, Ryan was one of the most exciting starting pitchers in the American League, generating a 3.60 ERA, 3.44 FIP, and a 147-to-23 strikeout-to-walk-ratio. He's an integral part of Minnesota's success. His absence significantly contributed to the club's late-season collapse, and his ability to return and perform at an above-average rate in 2025 will drive the club's ability to return to the postseason. Luckily, signs point to him picking up where he left off, with the opportunity to take a considerable step forward in his fifth major-league season. 

Driven by him throwing his four-seam fastball high in the zone at a 71% strike rate last season, Ryan was one of the most effective starting pitchers at suppressing walks. He maintained a preposterously good 4.3% walk rate over 135 innings pitched. The Cal State-Stanislaus product has sustained this approach his entire career, which is wise: it's a strong foundation that leads to him getting ahead in counts early and often. Throughout his career, his fastball's gradual velocity increase has made the pitch even more effective, and the pitch should be similarly dominant in 2025. While his fastball and zone command are among the strongest in the league, he had long been searching for consistently effective secondary pitches. Interestingly, he seemingly discovered his ideal pitch-mix last season. 

Ryan's most-used non-fastball was his splitter, which he threw 22% of the time. He mainly relied on it against left-handed hitters. That was a wise decision, as he could find strikes low in the zone with his splitter against lefties, which increased the efficacy of his already-elite fastball. His tertiary pitch was his sweeper, which he primarily used against right-handed hitters. He also threw his gyro slider 8% of the time, which functioned as an effective faster, tighter breaking pitch against same-handed hitters. His splitter, sweeper, and gyro slider netted a combined .204 opponent batting average, demonstrating that the pitches complemented his fastball exceptionally well. He also tinkered with a sinker last season, which could blossom into an adequate fastball variant that can run in on right-handed hitters.

Ryan has a unique fastball, three compelling secondary pitches that work well against hitters of either handedness, and the ability to pound the zone as well as any starting pitcher in the majors. What more could one want from a starting pitcher? Despite undergoing a significant dip in performance while hiding a left groin strain from the Twins' trainers in 2023, Ryan has improved every season since joining the Minnesota organization. He was the best starting pitcher on a playoff-hopeful club for a substantial portion of last season, and should have been an All-Star. Given a clean bill of health, while showing signs of further bolstering his secondary pitches to complement his indomitable fastball, there is reason to expect Ryan to have his best season yet and propel himself to ace status. 

Making 1-to-1 comparisons to pitchers of seasons past is often a fool's errand. However, there is reason to suspect Ryan could put together a season similar to Sonny Gray's Cy Young-deserving 2023 campaign. This season, Ryan should net a better strikeout rate, walk rate, hard-hit rate, WHIP, BABIP, and opponent batting average than Gray did in 2023. Given that Ryan attacks up in the zone with a flat fastball, it will be nearly impossible for him to come close to emulating Gray's 0.39 home runs per nine (HR/9) in 2023. However, there is reason to expect his refined pitch mix and increased four-seam fastball velocity will aid in his ability to suppress home runs.

Ryan has demonstrated the ingredients necessary to become an optimized version of himself on the mound this season. If he does, he could become the first Twins starting pitcher to win the AL Cy Young award since Johan Santana in 2006.

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Twins Daily's John Bonnes contributed on-site reporting.

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[bean5302]

There have been some out of touch whoppers about Joe Ryan over the years on TD... this is the most extreme.

Maybe Chris Paddack will win it instead of Joe Ryan? Actually, I think Dylan Bundy will make a comeback and win it. Yeah!

[Major League Ready]

Vegas betting odds are 30:1.  Is that a legit candidate.  Probably not.  Pablo is actually 15:1.

[rdehring]

Assuming he is healthy, I see Ryan being a part of the Twins three headed monster at the front of their rotation.  An argument could be made that any of Lopez, Ober or Ryan are a team Ace and in the hunt for the Cy award.  Expect this trio will match up with any team's top three, which is all any team could ask for.  

Will the Twins trio remain healthy and pitch their best in 2025?  We won't know until the end of the season when we hope the Twins are still playing ball.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I don’t know if Cy Young is in his immediate future, but Joe Ryan certainly has been on an upward performance trend.  When he went down to injury last season, he was certainly a top 10 pitcher in the league, but didn’t get much recognition because he was still seen as a bit of a newcomer.  Hopefully that’s changing.  Ultimately, if he can have a really good season, I don’t really care if he brings home the hardware.  

Joe Ryan (or Pablo or Ober) winning a Cy Young isn’t that far fetched at all.  (Tell me who had Garret Crochet on their card last year in March?}. Here’s my question for all of the Twins’ pitching critics out there. . . If one of their pitchers wins a Cy Young award, do we get to call them an “Ace” or are they still just 2nd/3rd starters?  😄

[CRF]

I just want to see him stay healthy all season. 

[mikelink45]

Let's get a full season from him before we start dreaming of Cy Youngs.  I will be content if he is a stud in the rotation.

[gunnarthor]

Wow, great click bait.

No, he's not a legitimate candidate for a Cy Young.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

There have been some out of touch whoppers about Joe Ryan over the years on TD... this is the most extreme.

Maybe Chris Paddack will win it instead of Joe Ryan? Actually, I think Dylan Bundy will make a comeback and win it. Yeah!

Another Schoenmann touch whopper :/

[Doctor Gast]

Anything can happen. IMO, many in the league are tired of Twins looking good on paper but not producing & they have soured on the Twins, I don't think any of them think that any Twin will amount to much.

[LambchoP]

If they can all three stay healthy all year, Lopez, Ryan and Ober should match up with any other top 3 rotation in the AL. Trading half a season of Nelson Cruz for a long term TOR Joe Ryan may go down as one of Falvey's best trades 

[D.C Twins]

[Rosterman]

He just needs to p Pitch. Follow a game plan. Dont worry about wins, honors, or futrue contracts. He has the stuff.

[Schmoeman5]

To all the naysayers.  Ryan and Ober have improved each year. Who's to say that one of them can't put together a 15-4  type season with a 2.96 era with 200 K. I could see it happening. It's not that preposterous.

[Parfigliano]

Cole is already injured so if Skubal gets injured and Ryan can stay healthy then sure he has a decent shot at a Cy Young.

[NotAboutWinning]

Without having thrown a pitch in the 2025 regular season, I would say, at this point, NO!!!

[ryanking61]

I'm not focusing on awards or MVP's for this 2025 Twins team, I'm just looking for the team to stay healthy throughout the season, and playing up to the expectations and potential that this team has. Win the division, get to October and lets worry about any awards later! 

[Hubie29]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

To all the naysayers.  Ryan and Ober have improved each year. Who's to say that one of them can't put together a 15-4  type season with a 2.96 era with 200 K. I could see it happening. It's not that preposterous.

These would be great seasons but not cy young worthy. If that wins a cy young, the starting pitching in the league has to be down. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Cole is already injured so if Skubal gets injured and Ryan can stay healthy then sure he has a decent shot at a Cy Young.

 

Tarik Skubal	Tigers	+350
Garrett Crochet	Red Sox	+375
Cole Ragans	Royals	+900
Logan Gilbert	Mariners	+1200
Jacob deGrom	Rangers	+1200
Pablo Lopez	Twins	+1800
Framber Valdez	Astros	+2000
Shane McClanahan	Rays	+2000
Hunter Brown	Astros	+2000
Max Fried	Yankees	+2500
Luis Castillo	Mariners	+3500
George Kirby	Mariners	+3500
Tanner Bibee	Guardians	+3500
Kevin Gausman	Blue Jays	+3500
Bryan Woo	Mariners	+4000

Joe Ryan is about on par with Bryan Woo in odds. 15x lower than Skubal.

Ryan has never put put Cy Young caliber numbers (sorry but a 3.55 best career ERA isn't getting it done and ERA is king for the Cy Young). Only 1 of the past 36 Cy Youngs handed out have an ERA that even starts with a "3" and that was Rick Porcello's 3.15 in 2016.

On top of the performance being out of the Cy Young hopeful realm, Joe Ryan has also never pitched more than 161.2 innings in a season, and there hasn't been a Cy Young award granted to a pitcher with less than 167 innings in the past 2 decades.

I know every year Joe Ryan is viewed as a 15 year old prospect who the Twins just drafted 3 years ago out of middle school and they somehow developed him on their own with no outside influences, but maybe... just maybe, it's time to accept the 29 year old veteran has already far overshot his expected ceiling of a borderline #5 starter. In order to even be considered a solid #2 arm, Ryan would have to see his performance take a major leap forward again. To put him in the Cy Young conversation is the same as putting Byron "Faster Version of Mike Trout" Buxton into the MVP conversation.
 

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

To put him in the Cy Young conversation is the same as putting Byron "Faster Version of Mike Trout" Buxton into the MVP conversation.
 

Do you have those odds?

[MMMordabito]

I guess I've seen stranger things called legitimate that have around the same <1% chance of happening that this does.

Joe Ryan is still one of my favorite current Twins.

 

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

These would be great seasons but not cy young worthy. If that wins a cy young, the starting pitching in the league has to be down. 

Skubal. 2024. 18-4 228 K 2.31 ERA. Not to far off from the numbers I posted. I just said it's not that unrealistic. Some posters don't believe players can improve year to year. Last year at this time the question was WHO would be the 3rd reliable starter if the Twins made the playoffs. 

[Nashvilletwin]

I’ll take the under.

[tony&rodney]

Was it rash to mortgage the house and put it all down on a bet?

[Hubie29]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Skubal. 2024. 18-4 228 K 2.31 ERA. Not to far off from the numbers I posted. I just said it's not that unrealistic. Some posters don't believe players can improve year to year. Last year at this time the question was WHO would be the 3rd reliable starter if the Twins made the playoffs. 

No, it's not too unrealistic but not likely. I think you need a sub 2.50 ERA with a gaudy record. I don't think any Twins starters this year will match that. 

[h2oface]

Silly. Homers had Lopez winning it in spring training last year. No player is a candidate, or is it all players are candidates at this point. Check in after the all-star break. 

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

To all the naysayers.  Ryan and Ober have improved each year. Who's to say that one of them can't put together a 15-4  type season with a 2.96 era with 200 K. I could see it happening. It's not that preposterous.

Not impossible, but not likely either. Since 2020, the Twins have had one guy win 15 games (Lopez last year) Ryan won 13 in 2022, 11 was the most in 2023,

The Twins starters just don't end up with a bunch of wins, in 2023 they won the division had 4 pitchers start 26, 29, 32 and 32 games and those 4 starters ended up with 11, 8, 11 and 8 wins. Gray did end up second in the Cy Young.

I will add I think any of the three could put those numbers you listed (not sure on the ERA), but I wouldn't bet on it, but I am hoping all three doing some close to that.

 

[MinnInPa]

Ober has a better chance.....Ryan gets little man syndrome too often thinking he can blow that 93 MPH fastball by anyone..and he doesnt have a great off speed pitch

[Otaknam]

Baldelli is so committed to analytics that it makes it difficult for any starter to pitch enough innings to win the Cy Young Award. His dogmatic belief to remove starters to avoid a third time through the lineup must be frustrating for the starters. Isn’t that part of the reason Sonny Gray left? Along with a bigger contract, of course. 

[Aerodeliria]

Well, you gotta write something so why not throw some darts at the lunar eclipse. Stranger things have happened...