Is It Time for the Minnesota Twins to Cash in on Their Pitching Pipeline?

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins have seven major-league-ready starters and another two or three who are very close. Meanwhile, multiple teams around the league are dealing with injuries to their rotation from significant contributors. Is it time for the Twins to cash in on their pitching pipeline?

Image courtesy of Left & Middle: © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images; Right:© Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

There may be no better-positioned team than the Twins to take advantage of some of the injuries around the league. Behind one of the best starting pitcher trios in baseball stands a solid group of guys who would be improvements over many other teams' fourth and fifth options: Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. Then, behind them, there's a group of near-ready arms in Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, and Marco Raya. Some of them have questions and/or are unproven, but the Twins arguably have the deepest rotation group at the highest two levels of pro ball, and are in a position to be opportunistic. Many teams are looking for rotation help this close to Opening Day. So, to deal or not to deal? That is the question.

If you’re like me, then you live by the credo that you can never have enough pitching. It’s the most valuable asset in the game and, no matter how desperate other teams are, the last thing most fans want is for the Twins to be in their position months from now. After all, while the Twins rotation is relatively healthy right now, Joe Ryan and Paddack haven’t been pillars of health, and their core of young pitchers aren’t guaranteed to meet the expectations put on them. Meanwhile, on the other side of the argument is the belief that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP). This theory, created by Baseball Prospectus founder Gary Huckabay, basically suggests that pitching prospects' range of outcomes are so volatile that teams shouldn’t become too tied to them. For every Paul Skenes, there is a Mark Appel, a Matt Bush, a Kyle Drabek, and a Brian Matusz—and this is doubly true for prep arms. At the very least, the Twins must do their due diligence.

At this point in spring training, the Twins' 40-man roster seems pretty well set. While there are battles that will impact the Opening Day active roster, the Twins filled their gaps this winter, with Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, and Ty France (among other, less notable depth options). While there is always room to improve, it can be a little hard to envision a deal between two teams that are looking to contend for the playoffs in the upcoming season. The Twins won’t be looking to flip a major-league or Triple-A arm for far-away prospects, and opposing teams likely aren't going to borrow from Paul to pay Pete. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at the teams in need and what they may have to offer to the Twins.

New York Yankees - Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil
Fresh off the news of their ace needing Tommy John surgery, the Yankees now have two holes in their rotation. They'd already lost the American League Rookie of the Year to a lat strain for at least two months. The 2024 World Series runner-up does have decent options to fill those losses, in Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren, but those aren’t names whom they’re ready to rely on over a large chunk of the season. The Yankees don’t have great depth at any one position, so it’s really hard to find a deal that both teams would be interested in. The Yankees don't have a great backup to starting catcher Austin Wells, but because they're already up against the top threshold of the competitive-balance tax ladder, it's hard to imagine them being willing to take on both Paddack and Christian Vázquez—at least not while giving the Twins anything of real value.

New York Mets - Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas
The other team in the Big Apple has also lost two starters this spring, as well as their starting catcher, Francisco Alvarez. The timelines of Manaea and Montas are unclear at this point, although neither are supposed to be long-term injuries, and after the Montas injury (but prior to the Manaea injury) the team said they were not planning to add another starter. While they haven’t publicly changed their stance in the last two weeks, it’s hard to envision them sitting on their hands after an offseason that saw them land Juan Soto and re-sign Pete Alonso. Unlike the Yankees, they could be in a position to take on a couple of contracts to supplement one of the best lineups in the league, and unlike the Yankees, the Mets do have some intriguing pieces that are at or close to the major-league level. It’s still hard to see a deal come to fruition between these two, but the Mets do have young pieces who could help the Twins in 2025 and beyond. Given that the Twins' financial impetus to move Paddack and/or Vázquez seems to have been removed, though, finding a value fit on each side might be difficult.

Baltimore Orioles - Grayson Rodriguez
Rodriguez, who missed the last two months of the 2024 season, is set to start 2025 on the IL with elbow inflammation. At this point, the team is shutting him down for about a week and then he will begin a throwing program. The Orioles are loaded with young talent, some of which have been blocked from getting significant runs in the big leagues. While the Twins did shore up first base, I’ve long been a fan of Ryan Mountcastle, who has two years of team control left and could be replaced on the Baltimore roster with a number of talented options. Or, since that would create a roster crunch for the Twins, maybe they kick the tires on one of those talented options like Heston Kjerstad, who has more team control and positional versatility but would certainly cost an arm like Festa or Matthews, rather than Paddack.

Seattle Mariners - George Kirby
Kirby has been shut down with shoulder inflammation but, at least for now, this appears to be a short-term injury; no structural damage was found. Of the teams we’ve discussed, the Mariners may be the most motivated to add. They’ve made small but affirmative “win-now” type moves in recent times, trading for Randy Arozarena at last year's deadline, signing Mitch Garver the winter before, trading for and re-signing Jorge Polanco, and holding on to Luis Castillo. Despite all that, PECOTA projects them to finish third in the AL West, while competing for a Wild Card spot with an offense that is projected to be slightly below average. While their pitching staff is the strength of the team, the difference between Kirby and Emerson Hancock may be too much to overcome while staying competitive. The Mariners don’t have much depth and, while their farm system is very good at the top, many of their top prospects are years away from the bigs.

While this isn’t a comprehensive list, it is a list of the biggest names that teams have lost since the start of spring training. While I do think it would be in the Twins' best interest to kick the tires, I’m struggling to see a trade scenario that makes sense at this point. It’s my opinion that Twins should stand pat for now. They can always reassess at the deadline, once there is a clearer picture of how their season is unfolding and where gaps may exist on their roster.

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Do you think the Twins should trade from their pitching depth? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I wouldn't do anything now pre-season. But if health is good for the first few months, I would very much be aggressive before the trade deadline.

EDIT: Came back to add, I would listen if it is something that would help the 2025 team. I would not be inclined to trade pitching for a prospect return right now. I don't know what that means, other than I would love a middle of the order type bat. 

[jorgenswest]

Should they trade from their depth? No. The return won’t be significant.

Do they bet on their depth and trade from the top 3? My answer is no but the return value would be high.

 

[chpettit19]

They should definitely be offering Paddack to all these teams to just see what they could get in return. Whether or not you actually do the deal depends on what you get offered. Clearing payroll space means nothing now. The Twins aren't stashing any saved cash now for possible deadline deals. They aren't going to give up the prospect pieces to bring in a high-priced vet anyway. Clearing payroll space mattered 4 months ago, not now. See what you can get for Paddack and go from there.

Any player is tradeable for the right price, but I don't see them trading any of their top 3 starters for anything less than an obvious overpay. Chris Archer to the Pirates style.

[tony&rodney]

Before anyone suggests a trade, I want to hear specific names. There is simply not any reason to trade young pitching with promise for anything less than an every day player. 

Andrew Morris just pitched 3 solid innings versus Toronto's lineup. Matthews, Festa, and Morris are primed to be really good starting pitchers. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Who are we trading and for whom are we trading?  That's the key to the equation.  In a vacuum, it makes no sense to trade for the sake of a trade.  However, if trading a young pitcher will net the catcher of the future, I'm all in.  There are deals out there to be had I'm sure, but there is no use speculating on the unknown.

It's always about the return.  At this point I would like to think we are past ditching salary by trading Paddack and Velasquez, so there has to be an actual return that makes the team better, preferably this year.  As for trading the big three, I think ONE of them is traded next offseason in order to avoid having all three contracts up at the same time.  Trading one of them before then is only feasible if someone is willing to back up the Brinks truck and give you a big haul. 

[Major League Ready]

I don't think these four teams are going to be interested in trading for prospects to replace well-established starting pitchers.  It just doesn't make any sense, especially if the asking price is an established middle of the order bat.  Have to agree with @chpettit19that Paddack should definitely be available if we can get value in return as opposed to a salary dump.  Other than Paddack, I would revisit this topic in July.

[gman]

Other than Paddack I wouldn't trade any of the starting pitchers. Unless of course someone jumps up and makes a ridiculous offer. Everyone is tradable for the right price.

[Major League Ready]

My dream scenario is a healthy Prielipp is killing it and knocking down the door and I might be unreasonably high on Zebby but he is looking very good to me.  Morris looked good today and of course Festa has looked the part as well.  I would love to be so deep in pitching that we can trade some away but we are not there just yet.

[Doctor Gast]

I'd hang unto our pitching except consensus Paddack. IMO we don't have any big needs except a big time young future catcher, I'd be open to trade. a pitcher for one. I suggested some combination Paddack for (LH) Cesar Salazar (HOU 3rd catcher ready to groom for backup).

[DocBauer]

The time to trade was a couple months ago...just trusting in the kids...or the deadline this year if we're a player away and our own arms are still healthy...or next offseason. 

Considering how this FO likes to do things, and where their greatest successes have been, I'd say next offseason. 

But I will echo the sentiment that if someone is available, it would be Paddack. Not to clear $ which really doesn't matter any longer, but because he's on a 1yr deal.

[Parfigliano]

Paddack if someone would take him

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Should they trade from their depth? No. The return won’t be significant.

Do they bet on their depth and trade from the top 3? My answer is no but the return value would be high.

 

This. Right now, only one of Ober, Ryan, or Lopez would render a needle-moving player for 2025. Maybe that (hopefully )changes by the deadline or, more realistically, next offseason.

[Fatbat]

If someone is desperate and wants to overpay, sure! Please overpay! Who do you want? We got depth…. 
Otherwise, we will be hoarding all the pitchers. We never have enough.

[Eris]

The challenge the Yankees face, and to a lesser extent the Mets, is these teams have very depleted farm systems and have little to offer the Twins for Lopez, Ryan or Ober. Agree with @chpettit19that this would need to be a Chris Archer type trade. 

[ashbury]

Pitching is the hardest thing to acquire so I don't feel like making other teams' task easier for them.  But then I'm a prospect hoarder and will not likely ever change.  Paddack? Sure, I'd listen to offers that make us better.

We're still in Counting Chickens Before They Hatch territory with this Pitching Pipeline™. Some of the chicks are pecking at their shells, some are out and are actual chicks, but it's premature to call them chickens yet.  It's easy to telescope the future into the present and think they're all happening at the same time.

[Jocko87]

Lost count of how many times I heard that the Mariners should be trading an “extra” pitcher for a bat only to find them on this illustrious list, without having traded a pitcher away.  Oh how the mighty have fallen. 

That said, the phone is always open for Paddack but I’m being patient at this point.  The value is still going up and I’m comfortable risking a zero return for the potential upside closer to the deadline.  

This might be a different discussion next year but it’s a great problem to have, if it ever actually develops into a problem.  Let’s just enjoy the first year since Minnie left middle school that we are somewhat comfortable with the pitching depth. 

[Trov]

This is what Cleveland has done for years, but they do not trade the "prospects" they trade the established soon to be FA guy.  It nets a much better return and helps them reload their system.  As pointed out you cannot have enough pitching, and they are so volatile on their success, so you need as many as you can to see who truly pans out.  Sometimes it takes years to know and sometimes you miss.  We traded Gil away when very young and it took him a long time to develop but had rookie of the year.  He was injury plagued early in his career, and now injury again. 

I would fully listen to offers on anyone we have, and if you are blown away then go for it.  However, I doubt any deals we would be offered are earth shattering deals.  

[Otaknam]

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They should definitely be offering Paddack to all these teams to just see what they could get in return. Whether or not you actually do the deal depends on what you get offered. Clearing payroll space means nothing now. The Twins aren't stashing any saved cash now for possible deadline deals. They aren't going to give up the prospect pieces to bring in a high-priced vet anyway. Clearing payroll space mattered 4 months ago, not now. See what you can get for Paddack and go from there.

Any player is tradeable for the right price, but I don't see them trading any of their top 3 starters for anything less than an obvious overpay. Chris Archer to the Pirates style.

I think they would trade Paddock in a second for a AA or A+ prospect if they can dump the $7 million contract. They have other cheaper annd healthier options in Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, and the penurious Pohlads still own the team, so cutting salary is still a top priority.

[Whitey333]

These prospects in the pitching pipeline are just that.  Prospects or suspects.  I think Paddock could be traded but let's get serious.  He is not bringing much back.  He really has done very little the past two years or so.  Pitching pipeline?  Let's see some results first then yes if need be trade to improve but not to salary dump.

[SF Twins Fan]

It all depends on the return.  I think the Twins should be taking all calls and seeing what the offers are.  Can they get a legit catching prospect who's in AA or AAA?  Can they get a middle of the order outfield bat?  Those are the two position types I would consider in a trade.

[AKTwinsFan]

Should have just picked Kirby to begin with. 

[saviking]

Some are unproven .. Must be referring to Raya. 

Faced 5 batters, two walks, three hit batters, gave up 5 earned runs ...

[LambchoP]

Of course it all depends on the trade. I'm only trading pitching for major league talent who would help us this year. That brings up another question, where would we add a bat? First base, second base? Wouldn't that block Miranda and Lee. France signing would be easy to drop but he's looked really good this Spring. 

[Riverbrian]

Not a good idea at all. 

1. I assume we still have budget concerns. Experienced talent will come with a price tag beyond the trade cost. 

2. I assume that talented arb level players that will not drive the budget out of range will not be available. Trading established players with years of control for less established players with years of control doesn't make a ton of sense to me. So... what teams will offer us is: Prospects... might get some good ones but we are just trading prospects for prospects.   

3. I assume that we will need at least 10 starters to pitch significant innings to get through the season. All teams do. We had rather incredible health on the mound last year and still utilized 8 starters over 7 times.  It's a lot to ask for to have similar health again in 2025. I predict that we will need double digit arms making over 5 starts on the year to get through the year.  

4. Why would you work so hard to get yourself to solid ground and then purposely move yourself to the edge of a cliff. We may actually be at a place where innings eaters are not necessary to get through the season. We potentially have home grown starting pitching depth to take the ball instead. This is where you want to be. This is where every organization wants to be. 

5. The reason that any team would gladly trade for our potential excess of arms is so they can get to WHERE WE ARE NOW. They want to have enough arms to get through the season without needing to pick up Dylan Bundy off the waiver wire. Why trade places with them. 

[tony&rodney]

To tap into what Riverbrain has just explained ...... moving pitching prospects like Matthews, Festa, or Morris or even  Soto, Hill, or Prielipp would be folly. Next offseason if there are strong, substantial offers it may be possible to envision that one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober may be exchanged for position help. Any moves would need to return a player that is truly or potentially quite noteworthy, a middle of the order tooled up player.

[bean5302]

I don't know. I would rather the Twins move Paddack since I don't think he's going to produce as well as other rotation options, and I could see another team swapping a contract savings nullifying player back to Minnesota in the process.

It's just going to depend on what other teams are offering.

[tony&rodney]

44 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know. I would rather the Twins move Paddack since I don't think he's going to produce as well as other rotation options, and I could see another team swapping a contract savings nullifying player back to Minnesota in the process.

It's just going to depend on what other teams are offering.

Paddack won't return anything worth discussing. I doubt any trades are made before next offseason unless the Twins tank and some team in the hunt makes a ludicrous offer for one of the top three guys. Paddack likely has more value to the Twins than another team.