Is Chris Paddack Really Going to Breeze into the Starting Rotation?

[Matt Braun]

Barring injuries, it sure looks like two of the three young hurlers who impressed (in various ways) in the Twins' rotation last summer will be left out when the team heads north this spring. That ain't justice, Sheriff.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

As spring training warms from a simmer to a boil, the Twins only have a few questions to answer over the coming weeks. We have an idea of what the lineup will look like—at least in terms of who will play where. The bullpen is its usual mix of established studs and collected misfits scraping for the final few relief spots. The rotation is all about that fifth starter role, and which one of Minnesota’s promising young hurlers will break camp claiming it.

Lost in this talk, though, is a crucial question: why does Chris Paddack have a solidified spot? He’s a two-pitch 29-year-old with a career 4.38 ERA, whose only year close to a “full season” was one pandemic and a second torn UCL ago. He’s pitched 432 2/3 innings across six seasons. The Twins themselves know he can’t be trusted: they spent the entire offseason quietly attempting to deal him and his $7.5-million contract, only to find that they couldn't wrest much value out of any other team in exchange for him. In an era with a dearth of starting pitching, no one wanted to shell out Aaron Civale money for Paddack, unless they could do so without including a prospect. Now, the team has Paddack written into the fourth spot in their rotation, in heavy pencil—if not in ink.

I know the members of the Twins front office are wise enough to understand and avoid the sunk-cost fallacy. Yet, they’ve acted oddly adamant and steadfast in supporting the Paddack experiment. “The slider,” which we’ve heard a lot about—far too much, considering he proved unable to master a true tertiary pitch years ago—is the amorphous sticking point. Maybe that’s the key to unlocking everything. And maybe Oswaldo Arcia will lighten up on the swing-and-miss, one of these years. 

At some point, a player can no longer live in Potential World; they have to prove development (beyond nebulous quotes) and actually bring something to the table. Knowing when to call it on someone isn’t always easy. We see the potential in bits and moments—starts and pitches—and dream of a future where that consistency is bottled, properly maintained, and self-evident. 

I’m calling it on Paddack. I think he made sense in 2022, when the smoking ruins of J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker begat the terror of Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. But the Twins have options now. Great ones, too. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections see David Festa and Zebby Matthews as better pitchers even right now, with Simeon Woods Richardson as essentially an equal. Shoot, even Andrew Morris is indistinguishable in terms of production.

So here’s what the Twins should do: swallow their pride and move Paddack to the bullpen. Eat the money. Make him baseball’s most expensive middle reliever (or not, even; the idea of spending this much on a relief arm is only crazy to the Pohlads). They’re never seeing that $7.5 million again, so why scramble to maximize their ROI when they could avoid blocking a worthy youngster—and potentially gain a relief ace in the process? We saw a sneak peek of reliever Chris Paddack in 2023, and he looked excellent, striking out 14 in 8 2/3 innings combined between the regular season and playoffs. He was one of the few Twins hurlers to consistently get Houston batters out in the ALDS. Small samples, yes, but it shouldn’t be surprising that a guy who really only commands two pitches dominates with a simplified approach and elevated velocity over short bursts.

If (when) Paddack breaks camp with the Twins as a starter, I won’t get it. He’s a known commodity, not appreciably better than the three main guys nipping at his heels. Better suited in the bullpen, he could provide a boon to a relief group bursting with potential, but thin in upside in its second tier when factoring in Brock Stewart and Justin Topa’s injury issues. It won’t happen, though, and he’ll instead block a young pitcher likely to match (if not surpass, outright) his production. Injuries will probably open a path to the majors for those younger hurlers soon enough, anyway, but it's foolish of the Twins to think reactively.

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[nicksaviking]

Unless he miraculously stays healthy and starts 22+ games this year, this is Paddack's last season in a MLB rotation; wherever his road takes him next year, it will be in the bullpen.

The Twins shouldn't be beholden to starting him still simply because his contract is heftier than this team is willing to pay relievers.

I agree that the front office is wise enough to understand the sunk cost fallacy, but I disagree that they have the fortitude to avoid it. Veteran players on decent contracts are like a box of Oreos to them. One start leads to two starts leads to a dozen. They'll stop when they get a stomach ache, not BEFORE they get a stomach ache.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Any word on when Joe Ryan will pitch in his first spring game?

Hard to give up on depth if Ryan isn't ready to be pitching opening day.

 

 

[Craig Arko]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Any word on when Joe Ryan will pitch in his first spring game?

Hard to give up on depth if Ryan isn't ready to be pitching opening day.

 

 

I remember reading it would be Mar 5th,

[Mike Sixel]

He's a veteran under contract. Of course he is. Meanwhile, Festa and Matthews will waste 10-20 starts in AAA. 

[HerbieFan]

Here's what I'd like to see.  Let Paddock make 12-14 starts and pitch 60-70 innings before he inevitably gets hurt.  Manage Festa's innings at AAA.  When Paddock goes down, Festa replaces him for good.  Paddock goes on IL for who knows how long and when he comes back put him in the bullpen to replace Stewart, who will likely be out by then.  It seems like the only path to getting something for your $7.5 million.

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I remember reading it would be Mar 5th,

Ryan pitches tomorrow!

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's a veteran under contract. Of course he is. Meanwhile, Festa and Matthews will waste 10-20 starts in AAA. 

You are assuming an awful lot of health for everyone in the rotation. That wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily.

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

Here's what I'd like to see.  Let Paddock make 12-14 starts and pitch 60-70 innings before he inevitably gets hurt.  Manage Festa's innings at AAA.  When Paddock goes down, Festa replaces him for good.  Paddock goes on IL for who knows how long and when he comes back put him in the bullpen to replace Stewart, who will likely be out by then.  It seems like the only path to getting something for your $7.5 million.

To me the money isn't the defining issue.  Paddack has sufficient service time accrued, and Stewart has no remaining minor-league options, so that they can not be stashed at St. Paul at will.  Festa can.  Unless the FO is willing to commit to removing a player entirely from their roster, the plan you laid out fits with reality.  Blame MLB rostering rules, not some kind of penny-pinching motivation.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You are assuming an awful lot of health for everyone in the rotation. That wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily.

2 months of health is an awful lot? 

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

2 months of health is an awful lot? 

I more meant I don't see any of Zebby or Festa or SWR making 20 healthy starts at AAA this year. If I am wrong, that probably means the team is doing really well. 

[Hubie29]

17 minutes ago, HerbieFan said:

Here's what I'd like to see.  Let Paddock make 12-14 starts and pitch 60-70 innings before he inevitably gets hurt.  Manage Festa's innings at AAA.  When Paddock goes down, Festa replaces him for good.  Paddock goes on IL for who knows how long and when he comes back put him in the bullpen to replace Stewart, who will likely be out by then.  It seems like the only path to getting something for your $7.5 million.

Problem is you might have 10 losses in those 12-14 starts unless we can consistently score 6+ runs a game in his starts.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Paddack will very likely receive the 4 month Twins obligatory pass. It is the Twins way.

If Ryan though isn't amped up yet it is easy to see him missing a couple of starts or so to start the season. But beyond Lopez, Ober and Ryan I really want to see Festa in the rotation. Another way to use Paddack would be as a tandem pitcher. Do this with SWR. I'm not personally impressed with Richardson's  4 plus inning starts. But if he and Paddack could go out every fifth day and each pitch 3 plus innings that imo might be the most useful use of each of them. Otherwise having both Paddack and SWR taking up two spots in the rotation and pitching only 4 plus per start is going to kill the pen. If Festa isn't in the rotation then this pitching pipeline is a fallacy. I can see Matthews getting some seasoning at AAA to start 2025 but not Festa.

[Parfigliano]

Sunk cost fallacy is a driving component of TC front office thinking.

[Jocko87]

Why would you make a move to announce a diminishment of his value before necessary?

Same as Varland, you keep him stretched until you don't.

Knocking on wood here, there haven't been a lot of spring injuries that might lead to moves. Don't close a door if you don't need to.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

“He’s a two-pitch 29-year-old with a career 4.38 ERA“

Really, not a bad back of rotation starter. Just not available enough.

[Pykkman]

The twins crashed and burned with Festa and Matthew’s in the rotation last fall…….   Not saying that is a guarantee it would happen again but a little more seasoning in AAA isn’t going to “waste” them.  We will need them this summer and likely need  plenty of them,    Depth is a strength.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Any word on when Joe Ryan will pitch in his first spring game?

Hard to give up on depth if Ryan isn't ready to be pitching opening day.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Craig Arko said:

I remember reading it would be Mar 5th,

 

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Ryan pitches tomorrow!

Going to have wait a lot longer than 1 day for the Ryan dreams to come true. Try March 6 on for size. 

[jmlease1]

Quote

I know the members of the Twins front office are wise enough to understand and avoid the sunk-cost fallacy.

Evidence suggests otherwise. (It's not an uncommon failing in MLB, to be fair)

They like Paddack, they like his stuff, they're paying him to be a starter, and his trade value goes down quite a bit if they shift him to the bullpen. I generally agree that he shouldn't get a spot in the rotation on scholarship, but that's how this team rolls with their veterans, especially ones they acquired from elsewhere. 

They got burned hard by not having enough depth before and to my mind may have overcorrected. Especially now that we're seeing a strong wave of starting pitching prospects hit the high minors, they should be more aggressive in cutting bait on veterans who don't perform.

Of course, I'm also the fool who wanted Kepler cut in 2023 at midseason and was ready to put Carlos Santana out to pasture in the spring of 2024.

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

 

Going to have wait a lot longer than 1 day for the Ryan dreams to come true. Try March 6 on for size. 

I'll try to remember to repost my contribution tomorrow, as well.  😀

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I have no problem with this.  He’s a veteran that has at times been pretty effective (it’s in the fifth starter spot after all), plus if he does “show” something, it increases his potential trade value at the deadline or before, when he could be flipped for a missing piece bat somewhere where it is needed more.  He can’t be sent down to AAA.  DFAing a player with a $7.5M salary seems pretty shortsighted.  The other guys can be sent down, and in fact doing so slows their clock AND allows their innings to be controlled a little bit more than with the big club.  

My ideal situation is that Paddack pitches pretty well and gets flipped for a bat when someone inevitably has an injury on a contending team.  I just hope that team isn’t us.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's a veteran under contract. Of course he is. Meanwhile, Festa and Matthews will waste 10-20 starts in AAA. 

Well, the Saints won't think those starts a waste............

[bean5302]

Paddack is guaranteed a rotation spot if he's healthy. The Twins' front office is not going to use a $7.5MM starting pitcher with virtually no reliever history out of the bullpen. He will not earn it on merit because Paddack isn't a great starting pitcher. He's probably a #5 if he's healthy at this point.

I'll also be a little surprised if the Twins don't trade a starter before the season starts (probably Paddack) if everybody is healthy and Castellanos looks good.

[tony&rodney]

Paddack is likely quite motivated to prove he belongs in MLB. He must also be very grateful that Falvey had such a crush on him that turned into $7.5 million for this year. I hope Paddack has a good year. No bets though.

[Drtwins]

I wish the author had used statistics to support their opinion rather than relying on projections. Zebby would be immediately excluded from the conversation. His ERA, FIP, and WAR (the only one with a negative WAR) were significantly worse than the others. While one could argue that it's a small sample size, this also indicates that he has no proven track record of success in MLB, making his inclusion in the opening day roster unjustifiable. Festa led the group in FIP/xFIP and had a significantly higher strikeout percentage than the others. If Festa has a good spring he would be my choice for #4. In my opinion, the discussion should really come down to SWR versus Paddock for the 5th spot. These two had very similar advanced metrics in 2024 (FIP, xFIP, K%). I would lean towards Paddock for the final spot in the rotation. He has a longer track record, is further removed from surgery, SWR can be optioned, and as others have pointed out, the Twins will need starting pitcher depth and shouldn't discard one. This assumes everyone makes it through Spring Training healthy. Being MN sports fans we all know this is unlikely, so I wouldn't be surprised if Festa, Paddock, and SWR are all on the opening day roster, or one of these three ends up on the IL and the other two get the final rotation spots.

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

I wish the author had used statistics to support their opinion rather than relying on projections. Zebby would be immediately excluded from the conversation. His ERA, FIP, and WAR (the only one with a negative WAR) were significantly worse than the others. While one could argue that it's a small sample size, this also indicates that he has no proven track record of success in MLB, making his inclusion in the opening day roster unjustifiable. Festa led the group in FIP/xFIP and had a significantly higher strikeout percentage than the others. If Festa has a good spring he would be my choice for #4. In my opinion, the discussion should really come down to SWR versus Paddock for the 5th spot. These two had very similar advanced metrics in 2024 (FIP, xFIP, K%). I would lean towards Paddock for the final spot in the rotation. He has a longer track record, is further removed from surgery, SWR can be optioned, and as others have pointed out, the Twins will need starting pitcher depth and shouldn't discard one. This assumes everyone makes it through Spring Training healthy. Being MN sports fans we all know this is unlikely, so I wouldn't be surprised if Festa, Paddock, and SWR are all on the opening day roster, or one of these three ends up on the IL and the other two get the final rotation spots.

K rate, BB rate, K-BB rate, xFIP, Stuff+ for Matthews are all better than Paddack or SWR. Matthews got barreled up a lot last year, but he'll probably wind up being a better pitcher than SWR or Paddack. There's plenty of reason to want Matthews in the rotation again right now, but I think it is best for him to get more polish at AAA. 

[gman]

I go with the format of letting him prove he can pitch so that he can be traded to someone else and get a lottery token in exchange. Let another team nurse him through the year.

My luck he would have a Cy Young season.

[chpettit19]

A spring trade to the Yankees or someone else losing arms (Luis Gil likely out til the All-Star break for the yanks already) sounds like a plausible outcome, but I don't see the Twins trading him at the deadline if he's successful. If he's pitching well enough to bring an MLB bat back in return you're threading an awfully tight needle of finding a contending team that needs pitching and has a bat they are willing to trade off their major league roster. And if the Twins are in the race at all and Paddack is pitching well they aren't going to trade him at the deadline for prospects. Don't see many plausible situations where they trade him in season.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Don't see many plausible situations where the trade him in season.

Me either .... and if Paddack is just ok Falvey will want to resign him. Hopefully the new owners will have arrived by then or we will all need the Pohlads to save us. AHHHHHH.

[Fatbat]

We will see plenty of young pitchers get starts in ‘25. Hopefully Paddack gets half of his customary 100 innings coming out of the bullpen starting in june. Unless he somehow improves to a #3 type SP.  don’t count him out yet.