Is the Ty France Deal Riskier Than It Seems for the Twins?

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Miranda from July on last year was really bad though right, just like France was. From July 10th through the end of the season, Miranda’s wRC + was 47, France was 75. And there is a real scenario where neither are on the team in June or July of this year:

Im hopeful they both can perform: we will see

I share your wishes. I'd like to share the differences between Miranda & France. Miranda was coming off a shoulder surgery, while serviceable Miranda racked, Miranda should have been fixed at 1B/ DH to accommodate his recovery, he was moved off. at the end of the season, Miranda was unserviceable. France had a bruised heel. France was fixed at 1B/ DH & given a chance to recover, yet he never raked. If Miranda was fixed at 1B/ DH, like he should have been, we wouldn't be having this discussion. There is a difference between playing hurt & recovering 100% from a surgery.

[Bodie]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I share your wishes. I'd like to share the differences between Miranda & France. Miranda was coming off a shoulder surgery, while serviceable Miranda racked, Miranda should have been fixed at 1B/ DH to accommodate his recovery, he was moved off. at the end of the season, Miranda was unserviceable. France had a bruised heel. France was fixed at 1B/ DH & given a chance to recover, yet he never raked. If Miranda was fixed at 1B/ DH, like he should have been, we wouldn't be having this discussion. There is a difference between playing hurt & recovering 100% from a surgery.

You're correct.  We wouldn't be having this discussion. 

If Miranda played 1B regularly we would gladly welcome ANY competent 1B to man the position!

Absolute.butcher on defense, seemingly ignored because he isn't as truly horrendous as Julien...

Jim Thome had more of a reason to bring a glove in his last season than either Miranda or (even more so!) Julien do!

[Doctor Wu]

Miranda seems to have the most upside with the bat, but he can also serve as DH. My  main concern is putting a player at first base that can field the position well. Santana obviously did a good job of doing that last season. but I don't see anyone of the first base candidates on the Twins challenging for a gold glove this season. 

[dxpavelka]

7 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I fear that's the plan no matter what he does in spring training.  Good or bad he is definitely getting a head start in the race to see who starts at 1B.

Miranda's had a multi year head start.  He's done nothing with it.

[mikelink45]

The issue isn't the signing - it is Baldelli making statements ahead of production.  Letting competition decide the positions is good.  Going into the spring with a decision already being stated is not. 

[laloesch]

It's a one year dumpster dive move nothing more.  Fulvey can try and hype this signing up more than it is but it's a dumpster diver signing.  Hopefully once there's new ownership the Twins will sign a quality first baseman or trade for one.

[jmlease1]

It's as if the Twins see and magnify the flaws in their own prospects/players the longer they have them sometimes. Miranda is almost certainly going to be a better hitter than France assuming equal levels of health between them. (and as a younger player, you would think he'd have an advantage on actually staying healthy, but you never know with those things) He's been about as good a 1B defensively, despite playing the position substantially less. Neither France nor Miranda are perfect players, but it feels like management is minimizing the flaws in France and getting lost in Miranda6's.

I really don't understand why the team would show any level of commitment to France going into spring training. I hope desperately that this is just meaningless public-speak where Rocco is trying to pump up a new player to the club...but it sure seems like they're picking Ty effing France to be the every day 1B already, which feels borderline insane. I hope I'm wrong. I hope France needs to prove it in spring training and they're not exiling Miranda to DH or the bench. But this feels very off.

I've generally been ok with the front office and Rocco's management. But if they're picking Ty France over Miranda from the jump, and end up sticking with him even if he doesn't have the big bounce back they're projecting, then it's a huge system failure, and the sort of thing that should be pointed to with a new ownership to potentially escort them out the door. I believe in raising the floor as a way to stay competitive, but giving too many ABs to washed up veterans simply because they're veterans and or getting stuck in the sunk cost fallacy lowers that floor right back, because you're giving too many ABs to bad players.

I hope I'm wrong. But I'm afraid I'm not.

[David Maro]

The only good thing about this signing is they didn't overpay like they did with Gallo.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I understand this doesn't address the main concern of the article (mainly the opinion that the Twins give too long a leash to veterans that aren't performing).  The bigger issue right now is that the Twins have absolutely nothing in the way of 1B prospects in the minors.  They continue to patch that position because they do not have great options there.  I understand and accept the argument for Miranda, but who is after him on the organizational depth chart?  A bunch of guys being forced into that role?

 

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don’t understand the hand-wringing on this when it relates to both Miranda and to Julien: neither of them have showed that they can be healthy and productive for even 3/4th of a season before. Hopefully they can get to that point, and if that’s the case that’s a good thing.

France isn’t the guy I was hoping for this offseason either, but if he is over his heel injury, there is a chance he can get back to 2021-2022 levels right? If not, there truly isn’t a loss here unless Keaschall or Rodriguez are blocked, which I don’t see happening

Completely agree. NOT what I was hoping for at 1B but hardly worth getting upset about. He will not block anyone! As YOU realize, there’s a big difference from an $11M contract (Gallo) or a $6.5M contract (Farmer) or $4-$5.5M contract (Margot)  to a $1M contract that’s been offered to France IF he makes the Team.

Miranda is a reverse splits guy that doesn’t seem physically durable. To me, he starts nearly all the time against RH pitching. France is a RH hitter off the bench that is available to PH, per recent history, v. lefties. He can start if Miranda gets hurt or needs rest and he can start 25% of the total games that are v. LH pitching.

Again, to me, Julien isn’t in any conversation regarding 1B. If Eddie hits he’ll play 2B. He surely will have an opportunity to start there right away - IF he hits! Keaschall, if he hits, will play 2B or 1B……..he’s probably a June add to roster though, best case. Really don’t see France & certainly not his contract, blocking these guys. Surely, he won’t block an OF like Emma.

[Linus]

8 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I understand this doesn't address the main concern of the article (mainly the opinion that the Twins give too long a leash to veterans that aren't performing).  The bigger issue right now is that the Twins have absolutely nothing in the way of 1B prospects in the minors.  They continue to patch that position because they do not have great options there.  I understand and accept the argument for Miranda, but who is after him on the organizational depth chart?  A bunch of guys being forced into that role?

 

I keep posting this because it seems we either don’t care or are unaware.  The Twins farm system has produced precious little for quite a long time.  It’s a big underlying problem.

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

What injury did he have? A low back strain for 10 days? 

If you recall, Miranda got hit in the head right after he had the insane 12 consecutive hits streak. He never was the same after that. I don't believe he hit a single homer after getting hit in the head and the back injury came  up as well. How much was regression to the mean and how much was being dogged by injuries is a good and open question. 

With France presumably the Opening Day first baseman, there would seem to be a ripple effect on Twins position players. Miranda moves to DH at least part-time, keeping Larnach in left field and moving Willi Castro more to second base, and lengthening the odds that Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien and Austin Martin start the season in the minors. All of this is barring injury, of course. If one of Lee, Julien or Martin makes the Opening Day squad, I would handicap it as this: Martin can play OF and second base and would be a likely pinch runner late in a game. Lee switch hits and can play second, third and shortstop and Julien bats left and is a below average second baseman who also might play a little first base where he is unproven. Julien has had success hitting in the majors (2023) while Lee and Martin fell short of expectation in their 2024 rookie year. 

[stringer bell]

7 minutes ago, Linus said:

I keep posting this because it seems we either don’t care or are unaware.  The Twins farm system has produced precious little for quite a long time.  It’s a big underlying problem.

The Twins have Larnach, Lee and Wallner as bat-first first round draft choices on their roster. Add in Lewis who right now seems like much more of a hitter than defender or exciting base runner and it is kind of strange that no one has developed into a slugging first baseman. In my comment here is the recent production of the farm system. I suppose you could add Miranda too. It's substandard IMHO because none of these guys has developed into an elite player as of yet. As a fan, it seems guys are always on the verge of becoming really good players (All-Stars who maybe get MVP votes) but they don't make it. Another high draft choice, Alex Kirilloff, had his career ended by injury before it really go going. I thought he was going to be the best of all I've listed. 

[stringer bell]

6 hours ago, Pdxtwins said:

Whose spot is he taking on the 40 man roster? 

The Twins DFA'd Brent Headrick before the France deal was announced, but presumably because they were going to be adding France to the 40-man. They lost Headrick to the Yankees. 

[Road trip]

4 hours ago, Bodie said:

You're correct.  We wouldn't be having this discussion. 

If Miranda played 1B regularly we would gladly welcome ANY competent 1B to man the position!

Absolute.butcher on defense, seemingly ignored because he isn't as truly horrendous as Julien...

Jim Thome had more of a reason to bring a glove in his last season than either Miranda or (even more so!) Julien do!

If you think Miranda is bad with the glove...

Season	Age	Team	Lg	Pos	G	GS	CG	Inn	Ch	PO	A	E	DP	Fld%	lgFld%	Rtot	Rtot/yr	Rdrs	Rdrs/yr	RF/9	lgRF9	RF/G	lgRFG

1B (3 Yrs)				1B	92	81	70	698.0	632	594	35	3	51	.995	.994	0	0	-6	-10	8.11	8.23	6.84	8.11

..you are really gonna hate France.  He's a statue. 

Season	Age	Team	Lg	Pos	G	GS	CG	Inn	Ch	PO	A	E	DP	Fld%	lgFld%	Rtot	Rtot/yr	Rdrs	Rdrs/yr	RF/9	lgRF9	RF/G	lgRFG

1B (6 Yrs)				1B	530	507	475	4501.1	3892	3535	347	10	342	.997	.994	-16	-4	-7	-2	7.76	8.14	7.32	8.01

France has to hit to have value.  He really should be a DH, but I'm very skeptical that he will hit enough to fill that role.

 

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I share your wishes. I'd like to share the differences between Miranda & France. Miranda was coming off a shoulder surgery, while serviceable Miranda racked, Miranda should have been fixed at 1B/ DH to accommodate his recovery, he was moved off. at the end of the season, Miranda was unserviceable. France had a bruised heel. France was fixed at 1B/ DH & given a chance to recover, yet he never raked. If Miranda was fixed at 1B/ DH, like he should have been, we wouldn't be having this discussion. There is a difference between playing hurt & recovering 100% from a surgery.

I don't think putting Miranda at first base would have guaranteed health or productivity and more than it would have for Alex Kirilloff. Some guys get injured a lot and others are durable. This is where France is more similar to Carlos Santana than he is to José Miranda. Prior to the heel injury, France had been quite the iron man for the Mariners, as Santana has been wherever he's played. Miranda has faded in two seasons and and had another lost at least in part due to injury, so although he's four years older, France would project to be much more likely to play a complete season. 

[LambchoP]

While I obviously would have liked someone much better, im fine with the deal. As long as he doesn't take at bats away from Miranda or anyone else that is outhitting him, he can play a capable first base and if he does struggle badly, they don't stick with him for way too long like they did with Margot.

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, EPEZRider said:

Hopefully, he doesn't turn out to be Manuel Margot 2.0.

Only if they use him as a PH

[Blyleven2011]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

"We do have to wonder, too, whether this amounts to an important schism between Baldelli and the front office. There's no way for an executive to more clearly send the message that a player is fungible than by signing them to a rare, uniquely low-ceiling and team-friendly contract. For Baldelli to signal an expectation of plugging in such a player every day creates some unavoidable cognitive dissonance. How much of this problem, over the years, has been about the front office—and how much has been Baldelli cleaving too tightly to veterans, perhaps using his own influence to fight off Falvey's efforts to move out non-producers? Is this a source of real or potential friction between the skipper and his bosses?"

I don't think there is any schism. For years Falvey makes these deals & Baldelli showcases them. From Happ to Gallo to Margot. These have been a few failures that Baldelli tries to showcase. I've been against all of them from the beginning. I could be wrong about Falvey but my gut feeling tells me otherwise. In France's case, I hope he does work out & help at DH & secondary 1Bman. But making him sole 1Bman is going way too far. France had his time at 1Bman & he's been bad. It's time for Baldelli to do the best for the team & let Miranda finally get the chance to get better at 1B & stay healthy. It's time to put our own players ahead these outhouse veterans instead of these other guys chance after chance after chance & not our own guys. If you want to produce good chemistry among our capable guys you give them every opportunity. Competition is fine but naming France as the sole 1Bman doesn't sound like competition to me. It sounds like the same old, same old.

Especially since the games haven't even started  , Rocco projects France to be playing alot , I hope that means spring training only as he has a non guaranteed contract to prove ...

Defensive metrics say Miranda is better at firstbase and we know Miranda has good bat control and can hit lefties and righties ...

We never get straight answers , so I guess I'm going to be an ass and assume France gets the most reps at firstbase in spring training and he's going to be platoon during the season if he qualifies for a 26 man roster...

We just don't need veterans like gallo , Margot or France taking away playing time from a player that could have a future if given the opportunity ....

We raised the payroll , but did we raise the talent  ??? 

Coloumbe was needed às a lefthanded relief roll , Bader as defense but we could have gone in house  , France was an unusual signing and not really needed ,  because hes a veteran doesn't qualify him for a roster spot ...

[old nurse]

They signed him because if he can hit he hits both handed pitching and no platoon split. I would expect a positive response out of Baldelli otherwise there would be no reason to sign him. Even if they cut him, there is not a great risk. The win is that France gets a chance.. 

 

once again I would like to thank Twins Daily for crashing once and reloading once in the time I took me to post the above lines 

[D.C Twins]

"After France couldn’t find a job all offseason and 29 other teams declined to guarantee him a deal, the Twins see him as a near-everyday player."

 

GUT. PUNCH.  

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins have Larnach, Lee and Wallner as bat-first first round draft choices on their roster. Add in Lewis who right now seems like much more of a hitter than defender or exciting base runner and it is kind of strange that no one has developed into a slugging first baseman. In my comment here is the recent production of the farm system. I suppose you could add Miranda too. It's substandard IMHO because none of these guys has developed into an elite player as of yet. As a fan, it seems guys are always on the verge of becoming really good players (All-Stars who maybe get MVP votes) but they don't make it. Another high draft choice, Alex Kirilloff, had his career ended by injury before it really go going. I thought he was going to be the best of all I've listed. 

The number of home grown Twins isn't horrible. 7 offensive players projected to break camp with us that were drafted and developed by this front office. 7 is actually kind of impressive compared to other teams. 

However... As you astutely point out. The Elite player is missing from the offensive side and it's the elite player with years of control that every team in the world wants. Lewis was the 1st pick overall... injuries have probably held him back... We have high hopes for him but we should have high hopes because he was the 1st pick overall. Wallner, Larnach and Julien development have been capped (self imposed) to requiring a right handed compliment and the roster filling space this requires to compliment them. Jeffers and MIranda are decent enough to be better than that roster filler... and of course Lee... who we have those high hopes attached that go with a top ten overall pick but ???    

Then if you look around the league. Projected 2025 Opening day Rosters: 

Cleveland 16 Pre-Arb Players

Milwaukee 15 Pre-Arb Players

Tampa 15-Pre-Arb Players

Detroit 13 Pre-Arb Players

Royals 12 Pre-Arb Players

Astros 12 Pre-Arb Players

Jays 10 Pre-Arb Players

Twins 8 Pre-Arb Players

These are teams that won games last year.

You start to realize that development is not where it needs to be amidst budget constraints. Budget constraints amidst significant financial commitment to 2nd tier roster filler.

You stop and think about Milwaukee and... you gotta ask... What is going on in Minnesota. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins DFA'd Brent Headrick before the France deal was announced, but presumably because they were going to be adding France to the 40-man. They lost Headrick to the Yankees. 

Yeah, I'm not sure Headrick will pan out, but I wouldn't have traded him straight up for the ghost of Ty France.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I keep posting this because it seems we either don’t care or are unaware.  The Twins farm system has produced precious little for quite a long time.  It’s a big underlying problem.

The Twins had to make a significant philosophy shift after 2020. The team had success with the bomba squad and their drafts reflected the plan to keep it that way with big corner bats and questionable defensive positions. Then when the league deadened the ball and the 2020 results were lackluster, the organization changed both the plan for the MLB roster and the draft picks. So from 2021 onward, most of the bats were contact guys who played up the middle and a LOT of pitchers. We haven't had time to see the guys from this new philosophy much, only because they're too young. And they've traded the only two bats they drafted in the top six rounds from 2021.

[Finlander]

You could argue that we really haven't developed a permanent answer positionally at either 2B or 3B either. It seems to be drafting the bat first, then see where they can field, if at all. Royce Lewis hasn't shown yet that he can beat either Miranda or Lee at 3B. I wouldn't risk his knees turning double plays at 2B - so I guess I'd like him as a 1B candidate. We have no clue who will be even adequate at 2B. It seems like Keashall and Eels should have some opportunity to compete for infield consideration this spring, at least to push the so called incumbents.

To answer the article, I don't see France as a "risk" per se, at $1M. He's around to push the incumbent, likely Miranda. What Baldelli says about France may just be an addition to that push - I see his statement as encouraging and motivational to Miranda, rather than threatening. In the meantime, if France finds his swing, maybe we have a useful power righty bat, PH, DH, and PT 1B for a few weeks, and he becomes an additional trade chip this summer.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins had to make a significant philosophy shift after 2020. The team had success with the bomba squad and their drafts reflected the plan to keep it that way with big corner bats and questionable defensive positions. Then when the league deadened the ball and the 2020 results were lackluster, the organization changed both the plan for the MLB roster and the draft picks. So from 2021 onward, most of the bats were contact guys who played up the middle and a LOT of pitchers. We haven't had time to see the guys from this new philosophy much, only because they're too young. And they've traded the only two bats they drafted in the top six rounds from 2021.

Respectfully disagree.  It’s been 9 years and they were in charge of their drafting philosophy and who they traded.  The guys that have made it to the bigs are poor defenders and don’t run well, and some aren’t proven with the bat.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Linus said:

Respectfully disagree.  It’s been 9 years and they were in charge of their drafting philosophy and who they traded.  The guys that have made it to the bigs are poor defenders and don’t run well, and some aren’t proven with the bat.

Except it's been six.... Unless you expect guys to play in the majors within two years of being drafted. 

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, Linus said:

Respectfully disagree.  It’s been 9 years and they were in charge of their drafting philosophy and who they traded.  The guys that have made it to the bigs are poor defenders and don’t run well, and some aren’t proven with the bat.

Yeah, the 'bomba squad' drafted replacement guys. They stopped drafting those types of players, but based on 2019, it's understandable they wanted more Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario types.

I don't get your nine year comment, it's been four years. Look at their drafts prior to 2021 and after. They drafted completely different styles of hitters before and after. Obviously the prior 2021 players were less likely to produce, as their 2019 counterparts on the MLB roster ALSO stopped producing due to the change in the game.

[Danchat]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The bigger issue right now is that the Twins have absolutely nothing in the way of 1B prospects in the minors.  They continue to patch that position because they do not have great options there.  I understand and accept the argument for Miranda, but who is after him on the organizational depth chart?  A bunch of guys being forced into that role?

Here's what Fangraphs has:

Basically nothing at 1B...

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Here's what Fangraphs has:

Basically nothing at 1B...

This is why, IMO, Larnach should be the 1B......but that ship does not appear to ever be likely to sail. 

Their best prospects are all OF...all of them.....unless Keashcell becomes a 1B.