Are the Miami Marlins a Perfect Trade Partner for the Minnesota Twins?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins made another signing on Wednesday, and their payroll is well above what many would expect it to be as spring training nears. Has a surprising team emerged as a target to shed salary?

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

It’s hard to imagine a world where the Twins stand pat with their roster after signing Harrison Bader on Wednesday, as they’re nearing $20 million over what ownership’s preferred payroll seemed to be. Even if they have a bit more than we previously believed in terms of flexibility, they need to trim somewhere. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins have a minuscule payroll, and may want to add to their rotation. Is there a fit?

Before things fell through, the Twins reportedly talked with the Padres to shed some salary by moving Christian Vázquez’s contract. After making several additions to the major-league roster recently, they may have to revisit their options to shed salary. The Vázquez ship has likely sailed, and now it may be time to look at options with Chris Paddack.

Paddack had a disappointing season in 2024, his first full one after his second Tommy John surgery. Still, the going rate for a back-end starting pitcher in this landscape is much higher than the $7.25 million he’s owed. A bounce-back season could also be in the cards; we often see such things two years out from Tommy John. The Twins' rotation depth may make Paddack the easiest option to save some money on, and one team could be a fit. 

The Miami Marlins could be looking to add to their rotation. With a pitching staff decimated by injuries in recent seasons, they may simply be looking to add innings to make it through the season. In a marketplace where Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd each get roughly $15 million per year, though, simply going out and signing a free agent may be more of an expense than the Marlins would like, considering they plan to finish in last place. They may, instead, turn to the trade market.

In Paddack, the Marlins can get a rotation candidate to eat at least a few innings. He's shown substantial upside at times in his career, when healthy. Not only could he be acquired cheaply, but they would also have the ability to trade him at the deadline if he returns to form. The Fish would welcome a modest addition to their payroll, considering the MLB Players Association has begun to complain about the payrolls of teams like the Oakland A’s in years past. The Marlins currently project a payroll of just over $43 million, according to Spotrac, and are also already on the union's radar as potential violators of rules about how teams must use proceeds from competitive-balance tax payouts and revenue-sharing receipts.

Will dumping Paddack’s salary make the Twins a better team? Not unless you expect arms like David Festa or Zebby Matthews to be better rotation fillers than Paddack. Unfortunately, it’s possible that the additions of Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader always relied on the Twins' shedding salary. It’s a good bet to say a money-saving tactic is on the horizon. It's also perfectly plausible that both Festa and Matthews will be better than Paddack in 2025, even if that says as much about Paddack as about the young hurlers.

---

Could the Twins and Marlins link again on a low-wattage, salary-dumping trade? Should the Twins even be prioritizing such a move? Let us know below!

View full article

[LewFordLives]

Interesting, but I don't see it. As you said, they're probably not going to be competitive, so why would they take that contract? And he's been anything but an innings eater the last few years. I don't think the Marlins ownership cares what MLB thinks of their payroll.

[Doctor Gast]

Trading Lazardo has made MIA a little short & to protect some of their younger arms & to take off some of the burden they are putting on them. Hope they'd be interested in Paddack, they might be looking for more of a cheaper inning eater.  

[ziggy]

If Paddock returns to his earlier career form the Twins will have a front of the rotation starter pitching in the 5th spot. I know I am biased as I was in Denver in 2023 at the end of the season and he was the best pitcher to pitch in that 3 game series for either team. The Rockies hit nothing off of him, totally dominant.  I'd like him to stay, if he fizzles put him on IR for the rest of the season and move on at seasons end.

[PatPfund]

Or they could trade Bader to shed that mistake. (Or more likely Castro, for whom there might actually be a market.)

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, ziggy said:

If Paddock returns to his earlier career form the Twins will have a front of the rotation starter pitching in the 5th spot. I know I am biased as I was in Denver in 2023 at the end of the season and he was the best pitcher to pitch in that 3 game series for either team. The Rockies hit nothing off of him, totally dominant.  I'd like him to stay, if he fizzles put him on IR for the rest of the season and move on at seasons end.

You mean how he pitched 6 years and two Tommy John surgeries ago?

[stringer bell]

Paddack is worth about what he is getting paid this year, so giving up prospect capital for his services is an overpay. Perhaps Miami thinks they need a more veteran guy to protect their youngish arms and wants to take a flyer on Paddack.

The Sheriff is one of those guys that has been hurting and recovering for most of his career. It's seems he hasn't found a groove since his rookie year. I think he could be better than fifth starter material or a bullpen guy if totally healthy and fully recovered, but it seems he never gets there.

[Vanimal46]

Paddack won’t have to worry about how he looks in a Marlins hat. He’s had a full year of practice wearing that M cap for the Twins. 

[terrydactyls]

What are they trading Paddock for?

[twinstalker]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

What are they trading Paddock for?

A bag of beans, non-magic.  We win!

[twinstalker]

The $20 million you mention.  Not sure that's right or even close, but it does seem they're ready to spend more than we all thought.  I've sort of imagined this scenario: "Hello, potential buyer in the pool of what's  basically guaranteeing us a way out of our self-created mess, what do you think if we added X million to payroll to start the season?"  Enough shrugs from 90%-guaranteed buyers, and you realize you were saving a little money for no real reason.

That is, I think this is a sign they know the sale is coming from one or another.

[Mark G]

Who knows what to expect out of Miami these days?  This is the team that traded a quality pitcher for a batting champion, then a year plus later trades the batting champion for the always treasured "prospects", and now has neither the quality pitcher nor the batting champion, just the prospects.  I guess that is how you go from a wild card team to a 100 game loss team in one quick season.  We might be able to talk this team into something after all.  😏  

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, ziggy said:

If Paddock returns to his earlier career form the Twins will have a front of the rotation starter pitching in the 5th spot. I know I am biased as I was in Denver in 2023 at the end of the season and he was the best pitcher to pitch in that 3 game series for either team. The Rockies hit nothing off of him, totally dominant.  I'd like him to stay, if he fizzles put him on IR for the rest of the season and move on at seasons end.

 I agree, that Paddack would help the team but after signing Bader that pretty much signed the death warrant on a budget cut. IMO Paddack is easier to replace so that makes him the odd man out. Nevertheless, I'd prefer him to stay besides we'd probably only get a lotto ticket in return.

[Doctor Wu]

6 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Paddack won’t have to worry about how he looks in a Marlins hat. He’s had a full year of practice wearing that M cap for the Twins. 

I'm still not accustomed to seeing that new Twins "M" cap. Every time I see it, I do a double take, thinking: which team is this again?

[Blyleven2011]

Teams have to like what players we have , so far no one has been traded  ...

I guess falvey thinks he has a gold mine to sell and the asking price hasn't been met ...

Are the twins going to have a larger payroll or are they still planning on reducing payroll with trades , it's anyone's guess as we are once again left in the dark ...

Maybe the pohlads are looking for love and realized their mistake and are trying to capture the love of fans by raising payroll on there way out ..

[dxpavelka]

If guys like Festa & Matthews are not at least as good as Paddack it might be a LONG next few years in Twinsville.

[Whitey333]

Paddock is in a perfect place for him.  The Twins are well known for acquiring oft injured pitchers.  Who would want Paddock?  Why?  They may have a very hard time finding a taker.  Not even the Marlins.

[Patzky]

7 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

What are they trading Paddock for?

Wasn't addressed at all!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Paddack won’t have to worry about how he looks in a Marlins hat. He’s had a full year of practice wearing that M cap for the Twins. 

We can shut down the comments for this article, we have a winner!

[LambchoP]

I can't imagine we would get any kind of MLB talent other than bench players for Paddack. Maybe we acquire the backup SS that the Twins apparently want? I'd rather add another player or two with Paddack to get Cease or a 1b that can hit.

[stringer bell]

10 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

What are they trading Paddock for?

Salary relief. 

[stringer bell]

I hope Paddack is traded for one reason—that I won’t be needlessly frustrated by people misspelling his last name. 

[TopGunn#22]

The latest Twins moves:  Singing LH Coulomb for the pen and Bader to be the 4th OF leaves the Twins in an interesting position.  They've made a couple signings that will help, at least with OF defense and the pen, but the question remains...are they still looking to cut payroll?  Vasquez? Paddack?

There were a couple interesting trades posted on BBTV that caught my attention.

Trade #1  Trevor Larnach 28 y/o OF 21.7 value and Chris Paddack (2.8) to the KC Royals for 27 y/o 1B Vinnie Pasquantino.  With Bader the 4th OF and E-Rod on the way possibly by mid-season, Vinnie P. would give the Twins a solid and long term 1B.  Willi Castro could be the LH hitting LF.  The Royals have one of the worst OF's in the A.L. Central:  MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfroe.  They could use a guy like Larnach.  After trading Brady Singer this off season the Royals could use a guy like Paddack and the Twins shed $7.5 million in salary.

For all the talk about needing a RH OF bat, Bader brings the defense but not really much bat.

The other trade also involves Larnach, who remains a strong trade chip to balance the roster, especially with the eventual arrivals of E-Rod and Walker Jenkins.  This would be Larnach straight up for 27 y/o Spencer Steer who could play LF, 1B and even some 3B if needed.  

Steer and Pasquantino are each one year younger than Larnach, but they each have values very close to Larnach.  It's just a re-balancing of the Twins roster.   

[old nurse]

Miami has one or two players that are no longer arb or pre arb eligible. There is really no sense in them taking on more than minimum contracts. Their payroll is at 44 million. They are not going to spend up enough to get to revenue sharing status. Spending 60-70 million to get 60-70 million does not make sense.If they are going to take a contract on, the value of the prospects would have to exceed the value of the contract. They, probably have, like most other teams have, a couple of AAA depth pieces to go with the 8 starters listed on their 40 man roster  It would appear this is a develop young player season and hope to get the first pick in the draft sort of year. 

[Danchat]

4 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

If guys like Festa & Matthews are not at least as good as Paddack it might be a LONG next few years in Twinsville.

Festa was already better as a rookie than Paddack, it would be very disappointing if he regresses.

[gman]

6 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Teams have to like what players we have , so far no one has been traded  ...

I guess falvey thinks he has a gold mine to sell and the asking price hasn't been met ...

Are the twins going to have a larger payroll or are they still planning on reducing payroll with trades , it's anyone's guess as we are once again left in the dark ...

Maybe the pohlads are looking for love and realized their mistake and are trying to capture the love of fans by raising payroll on there way out ..

Probably not

[gman]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Paddock is in a perfect place for him.  The Twins are well known for acquiring oft injured pitchers.  Who would want Paddock?  Why?  They may have a very hard time finding a taker.  Not even the Marlins.

We can always hope

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Trade #1  Trevor Larnach 28 y/o OF 21.7 value and Chris Paddack (2.8) to the KC Royals for 27 y/o 1B Vinnie Pasquantino.  With Bader the 4th OF and E-Rod on the way possibly by mid-season, Vinnie P. would give the Twins a solid and long term 1B.  Willi Castro could be the LH hitting LF.  The Royals have one of the worst OF's in the A.L. Central:  MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel and Hunter Renfroe.  They could use a guy like Larnach.  After trading Brady Singer this off season the Royals could use a guy like Paddack and the Twins shed $7.5 million in salary.

For all the talk about needing a RH OF bat, Bader brings the defense but not really much bat.

The other trade also involves Larnach, who remains a strong trade chip to balance the roster, especially with the eventual arrivals of E-Rod and Walker Jenkins.  This would be Larnach straight up for 27 y/o Spencer Steer who could play LF, 1B and even some 3B if needed.

Interesting—One trade is intradivisional and the other would be to reacquire a player the team traded away. I think those facts make each proposal much more unlikely. Steer has been an everyday player for the Reds, but could get crowded out by young talent. Pasquantino seems like a middle of the order guy for KC. 

[TopGunn#22]

Yeah Stringer, I agree.  These were just a couple of interesting trades other people had posted on BBTV.  The deal for Pasquantino could work if the Royals are considering playing Sal Perez at 1B more and let younger guys catch.  Like I said, their OF is pretty punchless.  Larnach would essentially replace Vinnie in the batting order at a different position.

The deal with the Reds gives them a LH bat in the OF.  Steer has more versatility defensively so he probably makes more sense.  But CES is probably terribly undervalued right now due to some injury issues.  (I don't know what BBTV values CES at).  My memory of him in the Twins system is that he was a higher rated hitter than Miranda.  He doesn't just have power, he hit and got on base in the minors.  He could be a cheap option at 1B/DH if the Twins wanted some affordable power.  

There are those on TD who have always questioned the Mahle trade.  Getting one of those guys back might be "karmic."  

[Vanimal46]

8 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm still not accustomed to seeing that new Twins "M" cap. Every time I see it, I do a double take, thinking: which team is this again?

I thought someone already photoshopped the Marlins hat on him to use for this article. The M hat still hasn’t grown on me at all.