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Posted

Congratulations to this year's winner of the Byron Buxton's Injury History MLB Outfielder Fellowship.

Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have agreed to sign center fielder Harrison Bader per Jon Heyman.

Bader adds another useful skill set for the team, bringing in a right-handed hitting veteran outfielder known for his defense and speed.

Bader, 30, was available this late in free agency partially because he held out for a full-time starting opportunity much longer than the market gave him reason to. Coming off a difficult season in which he batted .236/.284/.373 for the Mets, he was never likely to find an everyday job. His 143 games played were a career-high, but in many of those contests, he was a pinch-hitter or a late-game defensive sub; he started only 108 games, all in center field. He hit 12 home runs and stole 17 bases, but the skills didn’t quite match the tools.

As a complementary piece and a fourth outfielder, though, he still has considerable value. When he first came up with the Cardinals, he was one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball. In 2019 and 2021, he was worth 15 and 18 Defensive Runs Saved, respectively. He’s thickly built and has already lost a step out there, such that he’s closer to average in center these days, but he’s still a plus in either corner. He retains above-average speed and a plus arm.

That’s perfect for the Twins, because in addition to being ballast against a Byron Buxton injury, Bader could be a platoon partner for either of Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. He’s a career .249/.315/.461 hitter against left-handed pitchers, so he would provide the same kind of right-handed power the Twins could have gotten from the likes of Randal Grichuk and Ramón Laureano, each of whom signed Tuesday for very similar amounts in other places. Unlike either of them, though, Bader offers that ability to play center field without becoming a glaring problem.

He’s been less reliable against righties. Throughout his career, Bader has been a streaky hitter, struggling against right-handed pitching (.669 career OPS) but occasionally running into enough power to be playable against them, anyway. He also stole 17 bases in 2022, 20 in 2023 and 17 last year, so he brings a speed weapon the team has been lacking, as well. The Twins had a league-low 65 steals in 2024; they need this infusion of sheer athleticism.

Injuries have often limited his production, but in 2024, he managed to stay on the field for a full season. In the past, he’s been sidelined by groin, hamstring, and oblique strains, a hairline fracture in his ribcage, and plantar fasciitis, so the risk is that he’s shelved at the very time when he’s needed to fill in for a downed Buxton. It’s reassuring, though, that he put together his most durable season to date in his most recent one.

The Mets gave Bader 437 plate appearances last year; the Twins can probably offer a little less than that for 2025. This move dramatically raises their floor, because it shields them against either Buxton’s prolonged absence or regression and platoon vulnerability from Larnach or Wallner. He’s a clear upgrade, for this role, over Austin Martin. The only lingering question is whether this move will force the team to cut money elsewhere. If adding Bader is the difference between being able to keep Christian Vázquez or Willi Castro and not being able to, it changes the equation. For now, though, it’s a savvy pickup.

UPDATE: According to Dan Hayes of The Athletic, the deal is worth $6.25 million in total, with incentives that can take it considerably higher.

 

A chunk of that will be pushed out to 2026 as the buyout on that mutual option—a reminder, those are hardly ever exercised by both parties—but this is a substantial investment in Bader by a team still operating under some level of payroll constraint. It's a show of real faith.


Matthew Trueblood contributed to this story. 


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Posted

In the 2023 post-season, Bader was huge for the Yankees. Admittedly, he didn't too much with the Cardinals when they were in the post-season but the Twins have usually lacked 'gamer' types that can rise to the occasion when you least expect it.

Posted
4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The goal shouldn't be to improve on Margot, it should be to avoid putting this type of player on the field.

I have no interest in Austin Martin getting 400 PA, but even his bat is a better option than Bader. 

Martin only out him by a TON last year, no biggie......and he was a rookie, so there is upside.....blech. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The goal shouldn't be to improve on Margot, it should be to avoid putting this type of player on the field.

I have no interest in Austin Martin getting 400 PA, but even his bat is a better option than Bader. 

Disagree. Bader hit 12 HR's and drove in 51 last year despite uninspiring stats. IMO he's a better hitter than Martin, especially against lefties. 

Posted

I like that he brings defense, but he can't hit. He's the move we all knew was coming, right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Larnach and Wallner. But his splits last year were actually reverse, and he wasn't good against either hand. He put up insane numbers against lefties in 2023, but 2022 was reverse as well and bad against both. 2021 was the last year he actually hit well, but his splits were reverse that year, too. 2019, also reverse splits. 2017 and 2018 he was much better against lefties than righties. 

Overall, he hasn't showed he can really hit either hand consistently. 4 of his 7 non-2020 seasons were reverse splits. So, he's a questionable platoon option to start with. He's all glove. And the Twins certainly need more glove. But I'm not excited about this move.

Posted
3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The goal shouldn't be to improve on Margot, it should be to avoid putting this type of player on the field.

I have no interest in Austin Martin getting 400 PA, but even his bat is a better option than Bader. 

Austin Martin sucks. Like proper sucks. Like, zero tool player sucks. 

Who cares if he hits a little bit better when he's also an atrocious fielder? 

Posted
9 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The goal shouldn't be to improve on Margot, it should be to avoid putting this type of player on the field.

I have no interest in Austin Martin getting 400 PA, but even his bat is a better option than Bader. 

Agreed. But, it is what it is until there's new ownership.

Posted
Quote

such that he’s closer to average in center these days

Statcast disagrees, he ranked 95th percentile for range, 86th percentile for arm strength last season. That's better range and an equal arm to Byron Buxton. There will be no drop-off in CF defense on the days Buxton is inevitably unable to play in CF. It might even improve.

13 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Offense is taking a step back and the offense is what was the biggest concern this offseason.

His offense is basically the same as playing Manny Margot, Austin Martin or Michael Helman but his defense is a LOT better. If they pinch-hit for Larnach or Wallner late in the game, they also get to upgrade the defense.

Posted
20 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

2 40 man spots to cut now - who goes?

Makes one think there is a trade in the works that will open up 1 or 2 40 man spots, perhaps plus a DFA. I'm guessing the two spots are presently occupied by some combination of Paddack (traded), Henriquez, Headrick, and Keirsey (DFA since he is now pretty redundant with Bader the backup CF). 

Posted
8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I like that he brings defense, but he can't hit. He's the move we all knew was coming, right-handed hitting outfielder to platoon with Larnach and Wallner. But his splits last year were actually reverse, and he wasn't good against either hand. He put up insane numbers against lefties in 2023, but 2022 was reverse as well and bad against both. 2021 was the last year he actually hit well, but his splits were reverse that year, too. 2019, also reverse splits. 2017 and 2018 he was much better against lefties than righties. 

Overall, he hasn't showed he can really hit either hand consistently. 4 of his 7 non-2020 seasons were reverse splits. So, he's a questionable platoon option to start with. He's all glove. And the Twins certainly need more glove. But I'm not excited about this move.

This looks a lot like the trade for Margot last season. Perhaps we can just wish that signing Bader allows for the Twins to push through and find a decent deal with Preller to bring Cease to the Twins. As is, the team looks close to a 82-86 wins squad at best. I'm losing hope.

Posted

The way I see it Bader can impact a game in several ways, He can enter the game as a pinch runner, or to provide elite defense when closing out a game. Twins can rest Buxton and not lose much, if anything, on defense. He's still capable of hitting one out of the park. It feels like another MAT signing rather than another Margot to me. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This looks a lot like the trade for Margot last season. Perhaps we can just wish that signing Bader allows for the Twins to push through and find a decent deal with Preller to bring Cease to the Twins. As is, the team looks close to a 82-86 wins squad at best. I'm losing hope.

They won 82 games last year and that was with Correa, Lewis and Ryan missing extended periods of time. Admittedly, the first two names aren't going to be confused with Cal Ripken in terms of durability, but the ceiling is higher than 86 wins, IYAM.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

and yet, he outhit Bader last year. 

86 OPS+ vs 87 OPS+ so technically yes Austin Martin was better, and he might very well hit a little bit better this year too. 

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

As for fielding, we are assuming he can't get better?

Yes, Austin Martin is not going to suddenly become a good defender just because he goes from 1,000 innings in the OF to 1,200 innings in the OF.

He wasn't just learning the position as so many here want to claim in order to excuse how terrible he was out there.  

 

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