BREAKING: Twins Agree to One-Year Deal With Outfielder Harrison Bader

[USAFChief]

Personally, I find WAR dubious at best.  Both flavors, although if forced to choose I'd use bWAR over fWAR.

 

But it's interesting none of those pooh-poohing this signing bring up WAR, where Bader was between 1.5 and 2 WAR better than Martin in 2024, depending on version. 

Many of thise same folks throw around WAR regularly...when it suits their arguments. 

[gmwannabe]

Falvey must have assured the Pohlad's that he would either trade Vasquez or Paddock to pay for Bader.

[bean5302]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Prior to last year, Margot was a better hitter than Bader pretty much every season. This guy cannot hit. His OPS has been under .660 each of the last three seasons.

Not really. wRC+
Bader vs. Margot from first significant playing time season for both players (2018)
2018 = 107 vs. 90
2019 = 82 vs. 84
2020 = 114 vs. 94
2021 = 108 vs. 94
2022 = 84 vs. 104
2023 = 68 vs. 92
2024 = 85 vs. 79

Margot couldn't hit, he was rapidly declining defensively partially due to losing his speed. Bader was at least still good defensively last year. I'd expect a wRC+ 85ish year from Bader and very good defense in center field, where he should still be able to play.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yikes.

Trade Paddack and Vazquez while using this up to 8 mil to give Alonso or Bregman the Correa Special 3 year deal with 2 opt outs.

Up to 8.25 mil for Bader?! They've played broke all winter but are now pushing the payroll over 140? Either trade(s) are coming (Paddack, Vazquez, and/or Castro), the front office wasted the entire offseason playing broke for no reason, or an announcement about new ownership is coming soon because they've already greenlit more spending.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have a really good player to step in and play centerfield. His name is Emmanuel Rodriguez and he can play LF or RF too as his regular gig. Seems like the Twins do not believe in EmRod and they might as well trade him to give him an opportunity elsewhere. Maybe a prospect for prospect deal. ... Milwaukee, Kansas City, Pittsburgh.

I am confident that Rodriguez, if he can stay healthy, can beat out Austin Martin and get 300 plate appearances as the first outfielder called up from AAA. It's perfectly fine for him to bounce between AAA and MLB this season. If he proves that he can play ball, then they could pretty easily trade Bader at the deadline.

[NYCTK]

Some of you guys are hilarious. Acting like 6.25 million is sending the pohlads to the poor house. 

Falvey improved the team and instead the fans are worried about where else they could have spent those marginal dollars. 

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Personally, I find WAR dubious at best.  Both flavors, although if forced to choose I'd use bWAR over fWAR.

 

But it's interesting none of those pooh-poohing this signing bring up WAR, where Bader was between 1.5 and 2 WAR better than Martin in 2024, depending on version. 

Many of thise same folks throw around WAR regularly...when it suits their arguments. 

I'd guess the anti-Bader crowd has a large overlap with the anti-WAR crowd. I'm in that Venn Diagram at least.

If you can't find good players, give me players you can option or have no qualms DFA'ing. I don't want bad players, that this team will never cut, clogging up the roster all year. Again.

[amjgt]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I feared this type of signing just as I fear Falvey getting fleeced in a trade. Will the other shoe drop?

The Twins have a really good player to step in and play centerfield. His name is Emmanuel Rodriguez and he can play LF or RF too as his regular gig. Seems like the Twins do not believe in EmRod and they might as well trade him to give him an opportunity elsewhere. Maybe a prospect for prospect deal. ... Milwaukee, Kansas City, Pittsburgh.

I think most of us are really excited for the eventual arrival of Emma, but he has 197 career plate appearances above high A.

None of us would be shocked if he's trying to knock down the door into the majors this year, but it is FAR FAR FAR more likely that he's just not ready for the majors yet

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Personally, I find WAR dubious at best.  Both flavors, although if forced to choose I'd use bWAR over fWAR.

But it's interesting none of those pooh-poohing this signing bring up WAR, where Bader was between 1.5 and 2 WAR better than Martin in 2024, depending on version. 

Many of thise same folks throw around WAR regularly...when it suits their arguments. 

If given a choice between Bader and Martin in the outfield, I choose Bader 147 times out of 10.

[bean5302]

For the people losing their minds over payroll, this must be really stressful as the narrative of cheap ownership is being eroded. The Twins were projected near $140MM as the offseason commenced, and now they're into the mid $140s.

This is Falvey-esque in terms of how things are coming about. Collect a whole bunch of 1 WAR types for depth and versatility rather than spend the budget on a couple highly valuable players.

It's the front office holding the team back, not the ownership IMHO.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Some of you guys are hilarious. Acting like 6.25 million is sending the pohlads to the poor house. 

Falvey improved the team and instead the fans are worried about where else they could have spent those marginal dollars. 

Getting upset about signing a competent CF backup for $6m is silly.

But there is reason to be wary when it's entirely possible that $6m will come at the expense of shipping out Paddack or Vazquez.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I am confident that Rodriguez, if he can stay healthy, can beat out Austin Martin and get 300 plate appearances as the first outfielder called up from AAA. It's perfectly fine for him to bounce between AAA and MLB this season. If he proves that he can play ball, then they could pretty easily trade Bader at the deadline.

I don't think anything in their history suggests they would actually trade Bader at the deadline. That's my concern. They kept Gallo all season. They kept Margot and Farmer all season. They don't move on from their position player vets. If they were run like a "normal" team who moved on from vets when they should I'd agree you laid out a reasonable plan there. But they don't operate that way and I don't know why we would believe they'd actually move Bader at any point during the season.

[mnfireman]

Signing a left-handed RP and a right-handed OF check a couple boxes, but also leads me to believe the team might be close to acquiring Cease. The team needs to open up 2 spots on the 40-man, and some sort of 3 for Cease and a minor leaguer(?) could be close and would fill the 40-man without trying to sneak somebody through waivers. I think it is depending on MN being able to SD off of Ryan/Ober and onto one of Zebby/SWR/Festa (hoping not Festa).

[NYCTK]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Getting upset about signing a competent CF backup for $6m is silly.

But there is reason to be wary when it's entirely possible that $6m will come at the expense of shipping out Paddack or Vazquez.

Entirely depends on what they would receive back. Considering they're both overpaid, I don't see anyone actually taking them. Paddack, maybe, but with nothing of substance in return. 

Bader is paid entirely fairly at 6.25 M. This very morning I pegged his market at 5-7.5. 

[karcherd]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Getting upset about signing a competent CF backup for $6m is silly.

But there is reason to be wary when it's entirely possible that $6m will come at the expense of shipping out Paddack or Vazquez.

Except he will be not be a backup, he will have over 400 AB's regardless of performance.  That is the issue and he will block players with a higher ceiling.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Entirely depends on what they would receive back. Considering they're both overpaid, I don't see anyone actually taking them. Paddack, maybe, but with nothing of substance in return. 

Bader is paid entirely fairly at 6.25 M. This very morning I pegged his market at 5-7.5. 

I think Paddack has surplus value at $7.5m. If he even has the smallest chance of starting 20+ games, that's a steal once you look at what some guys have been getting this offseason.

Would you rather have Scherzer at $15.5m or Paddack at $7.5m? I might choose Paddack, it's close.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, karcherd said:

Except he will be not be a backup, he will have over 400 AB's regardless of performance.  That is the issue and he will block players with a higher ceiling.

Maybe. Cross that bridge when we come to it. As of right now, he is blocking absolutely no one.

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think anything in their history suggests they would actually trade Bader at the deadline. That's my concern. They kept Gallo all season. They kept Margot and Farmer all season. They don't move on from their position player vets. If they were run like a "normal" team who moved on from vets when they should I'd agree you laid out a reasonable plan there. But they don't operate that way and I don't know why we would believe they'd actually move Bader at any point during the season.

So you should hope they never, ever sign a free agent. Can't imagine how devastated you must have been yesterday at an equally fair market signing to add a valuable player to the roster. 

[amjgt]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think anything in their history suggests they would actually trade Bader at the deadline. That's my concern. They kept Gallo all season. They kept Margot and Farmer all season. They don't move on from their position player vets. If they were run like a "normal" team who moved on from vets when they should I'd agree you laid out a reasonable plan there. But they don't operate that way and I don't know why we would believe they'd actually move Bader at any point during the season.

Those three had zero value at the trade deadline.

They moved Nelson Cruz at the deadline because he had value.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, karcherd said:

Except he will be not be a backup, he will have over 400 AB's regardless of performance.  That is the issue and he will block players with a higher ceiling.

Well, that's less the fault of Bader and more the fault of the player made of glass. 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, karcherd said:

Except he will be not be a backup, he will have over 400 AB's regardless of performance.  That is the issue and he will block players with a higher ceiling.

Who is he blocking? DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.?

[bean5302]

Just now, amjgt said:

Those three had zero value at the trade deadline.

They moved Nelson Cruz at the deadline because he had value.

Sure, if there's value, the Twins might move Bader at the deadline... and if they're also out of playoff contention.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Getting upset about signing a competent CF backup for $6m is silly.

But there is reason to be wary when it's entirely possible that $6m will come at the expense of shipping out Paddack or Vazquez.

But in what way is he competent? Certainly not with the bat?

Because that leads to the next question:  Is he really going to be a backup? History says he's going to get more PA than Buxton. Just give the PAs to the young guys. Maybe you'll get lucky. There is no pot of gold to be had with Bader though. Playing to the floor instead of the ceiling is what kills this team every single season. 

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

29 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Which is why I didn't care for them to sign any free agents. They didn't have to sign guys just to sign guys.

And MAT was not good in 2023. He had a 35% K rate and a .278 OBP. I know many people didn't notice at the time, but he was a huge offensive black hole. It made zero sense why Joey Gallo was such a dog but people were singing MATs praises. They were the SAME player.

MAT stole bases, played excellent defense at a premium position, and was healthy the entire year.

Joey Gallo did not steal bases, did not play a premium position, and was not available every day.

That’s why people loved MAT- he provided lots of value to the team, even though his bat was not good at all. That’s why there should be reason to be excited about Bader- he provides value to the Twins, even though he’s likely going to have a wOBA below .300.

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think Paddack has surplus value at $7.5m. If he even has the smallest chance of starting 20+ games, that's a steal once you look at what some guys have been getting this offseason.

Would you rather have Scherzer at $15.5m or Paddack at $7.5m? I might choose Paddack, it's close.

Probably Scherzer, but I think there is value to signing a HOFer aside from what they do on the field. You're still offering the chance for young fans to see Max Scherzer. 

Ain't no one caring if it's Paddack bump day. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Except he will be not be a backup, he will have over 400 AB's regardless of performance.  That is the issue and he will block players with a higher ceiling.

Well, there's a strong possibility we'll see Bader PHing for Wallner in the 5th, so i agree he's going to get lots of playing time. More than just time in CF 

But Rocco would be doing the same with Martin, so the problem lies there, not with Bader.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Some of you guys are hilarious. Acting like 6.25 million is sending the pohlads to the poor house. 

Falvey improved the team and instead the fans are worried about where else they could have spent those marginal dollars. 

Nobody is acting like 6.25 mil is sending the Pohlads anywhere. Yes, I am "worried about" where they spend their money. They're now, in my opinion, spending $23.75 mil on 3 players that don't move the needle on winning as many baseball games as possible in 2025. This isn't a new stance for me, or others, on this. I'd much rather have 1 guy for $24 mil than 3 guys. It's not just the 6.25 allocated to Bader, it's the $23.75 allocated to Paddack, Vazquez, and Bader instead of someone like Bregman or Alonso who are actual needle movers.

It's floor vs ceiling. Those 3 help maintain the floor while providing 0 help on the ceiling. I don't care about the floor anymore, I want ceiling. If they have had mid-140s worth of payroll available to them from the very beginning of the offseason I think this has been a complete failure of an offseason. Give me Ha-Seong Kim instead of Bader and Paddack. They had far more avenues of team improvement open to them if this is where they knew the payroll could be all offseason. Falvey improved the team compared to what it was yesterday, maybe. But he didn't improve it over what it could have been overall with the money they apparently have available to spend.

[Mike Sixel]

36 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yikes.

Well, now we know for sure he's on the team all year. yay.

[Major League Ready]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think anything in their history suggests they would actually trade Bader at the deadline. That's my concern. They kept Gallo all season. They kept Margot and Farmer all season. They don't move on from their position player vets. If they were run like a "normal" team who moved on from vets when they should I'd agree you laid out a reasonable plan there. But they don't operate that way and I don't know why we would believe they'd actually move Bader at any point during the season.

Were Gallo, Margot, and Farmer tradeable?  I just can't imagine there was any demand for those players but of course that's just my perception.  

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Well, there's a strong possibility we'll see Bader PHing for Wallner in the 5th, so i agree he's going to get lots of playing time. More than just time in CF 

But Rocco would be doing the same with Martin, so the problem lies there, not with Bader.

#FireRocco