Which Non-Tendered Free Agent Outfielder Can Be of Most Help to Twins?

[Adam Friedman]

Bryan de la Cruz, Austin Hays, and Dylan Carlson were all non-tendered by their respective clubs last month. In the right role, though, each has the potential to help a Twins team on a tight winter budget.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

This offseason, the Twins have a familiar hole to fill: a right-handed-hitting outfielder. Currently, the only right-handed outfielders projected on the Opening Day roster are Byron Buxton and Austin Martin, the latter of whom was a lousy defender and an underpowered hitter last season. Despite the departure of Max Kepler, they still have the left side of the plate covered by outfielders, with Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Willi Castro (who is best from the left side and in left field). They have even more lefties coming in, such as Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins.

In recent years, they've filled the right-handed fourth outfielder gig in various low-wattage ways. Those signings all have produced against lefties at just about an acceptable level, and there's no reason to expect them to make a big splash for the role now. Can any of the name-brand non-tendered, right-handed outfielders provide stability in 2025?

Bryan De La Cruz: 
2024 stats: .233/.271/.384; 77 wRC+, -1.2 fWAR, MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Projection: $4MM
Given the poor performance and substantial arbitration projection, it's only a mild surprise that the Pirates non-tendered Bryan De La Cruz. The 27-year-old corner outfielder and DH is coming off the worst season of his four-year career, never having previously lit the league on fire.

Even though the Pirates are cheaper than the Twins, they likely would have tendered him a contract around the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projection if they had thought they could trade him at that figure. After all, they just traded for him from Miami at the trade deadline in late July. He can only play the corner outfield (poorly) and doesn't hit the ball particularly hard for a player of that profile, which is why he will likely be available at the Twins' price point.

His struggles in 2024 were primarily against righties, however, and he was about average against lefties. As long as Castro and/or Martin can cover center field as backups to Buxton until Rodriguez or Jenkins are ready, De La Cruz's skill set could do the job for the Twins. However, as we saw previously with Kyle Garlick and Manuel Margot, this role seems good on paper, but all too often, a right-handed platoon bat will be forced to face righties, and it will be a problem for the team.

The other place where there may be potential is that back in 2022, he had fantastic underlying metrics. He had a high hard-hit rate and barrel rate, translating to a 90th-percentile xwOBA that year. Even this season, he showed the ability to drive the ball relatively consistently—until being traded to the Pirates, when everything collapsed.

Team Org	PA	Chase%	ZSw-Chase	InZoneWhiff%	PHiA/SW	100+/Sw	LaunchAng	90thExitVel	Hit95+%	Well Hit LA	Sweet Spot EV	BABIP	Barrel%	wOBA	SAEV
MIA	454	32.1%	44.0%	21.9%	2.8%	7.9%	13.8	104.3	43.3%	18.9	94.5	.297	22.8%	.303	89.9
PIT	168	34.1%	38.2%	24.2%	1.5%	6.2%	11.1	103	36.0%	15.3	92.1	.269	18.9%	.222	87.7

The Twins could find a real bargain here, if they can get De La Cruz back to what seemed to be working as recently as early in 2024. More likely, though, he would be a poor signing, with his limitations overshadowing his upside in the field and at the plate.

Dylan Carlson: 
2024 stats: .209/.287/.277; 67 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR, MLBTR Arbitration Projection: $2.7MM
Carlson's 2024 stats make him look like another bottom-of-the-barrel pickup, not much different than De La Cruz, but he is much more intriguing overall. He hasn't been serviceable since 2022, dealing with nagging injuries throughout 2023 and really struggling in 2024, but there may be some upside with the 26-year-old.

He has a great prospect pedigree. Just four years ago, Carlson was a top-20 prospect in baseball. Additionally, he was a really good defensive centerfielder as recently as 2022, and has been passable in that spot even since then. Carlson could bring much-needed insurance in case of a Buxton injury, while also being a quality option against lefties.

The former Cardinal and Ray carries a 122 wRC+ against lefties in his career, despite struggling against all pitchers in 2024. If the Twins can turn him around, he would likely carry a high but not astronomical strikeout rate, a solid walk rate, a prorated platoon share of 30 doubles, and around 20 long balls. Providing that as a fourth outfielder capable of replacing Castro and Martin as Buxton's understudy would be massive for the Twins. Even if they can't get him back quite to that point, he could still be a contributor at around $3 million (or lower), so he may be a worthwhile reclamation project.

Austin Hays: 
2024 stats: .255/.303/.396; 98 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR, MLBTR Arbitration Projection: $6.4MM
Hays (a 2023 All-Star) is the best of this bunch at the plate, but is also certain to be the most expensive. He's been a very reliable player over his career and is coming off just a slightly below-average 2024—playing in Baltimore and then being traded to Philadelphia. 

Were it not for a kidney infection that derailed him in the second half, Heys would probably have been tendered a contract by the Phillies. His stint with them left a sour taste for everyone, so they cut him loose, but he may still be too expensive for the Twins. Even if they can afford him, his defense is a drawback worth considering. He played no games in center field this season, and went from an excellent left fielder to a bad one. Entering his age-29 season, it's hard to see this turning around. If Hays can't cover for Buxton in center, he's certainly less valuable than he might have been a couple of years ago, when he did moonlight in center and was solid in each corner.

Assuming his restored health holds, Hays provides the best bat of this group. Despite struggling by his standards, Hays crushed lefties in 2024 and has been very good against them throughout his career. The Twins may also see an opportunity to get more out of his bat in a new ballpark. Baltimore has been extremely deep in left field for the last few years, and adjusting his approach to hit more fly balls to left field (outs in front of Walltimore, but home runs at Target Field) could make Hays an impact player available cheaply.

Signing other teams' unwanted players is not the optimal way to build a roster, but Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll need to be creative with the payroll limitations imposed upon them by ownership. It's hard to imagine the Twins signing De La Cruz, with all his faults, but it's easy to foresee them trying to get either Hays or Carlson back on track. Both outfielders could provide stability and some upside to a team with a high floor. Do you want the Twins to take a shot on any of these three right-handed bats?

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[miracleb]

Hard pass on all three.  DaShawn Keirsey can hit just as poorly as these three guys but has a better glove and baserunning skills.  De La Cruz: "left fielder AND   DH."   LOL!  (when they are "listed" as DH-ing.......it means they are not very good in the field.)   :-)

 

[Old Crow]

Kind of like going to a junk yard to replace a 2nd car.

[TopGunn#22]

Was it just an oversight not to list what the potential cost of Hays would be?  It's a pretty important factoid when your dealing with a "Pohlad right-sized budget."  Certainly De La Cruz is out of any consideration.  There is just nothing about him to get excited about.  Certainly not at 4 million.  Not even at $1 million.

Hays and Carlson are a different story.  Hays has the bat and prior to 2024 was a pretty good defensive LF.  Depending on cost, he would be at the top of the list and I think the Twins should give him heavy consideration.  Especially with Larnach already penciled in and E-Rod probably up by the All Star break, Hays is that RH OF bat the Twins have been looking for since they let Rooker get away.  

Carlson's defense alone makes him interesting, especially his ability to play a very good CF.  He just can't hit.  Could the Twins fix him?  That's the $64 dollar question, because of the three, he's the best overall defensive OF and the most affordable (which is terribly important to the current ownership).  If he could hit just enough, he makes sense as a 4th OF.  

Because I'd like to see Keirsey get a chance, I'd go for Hays (depending on what he would cost) because Keirsey would be Buxton's backup and Hays would cover LF/RF.  Having a guy that can play INF and OF like Willi Castro makes it easier to end up having 2 OF on your bench with a backup catcher.  

[Otaknam]

Carlson at the right price might be worth a shot. Keirsey deserves a shot, but he bats left handed and the team needs another right handed outfielder. Martin doesn’t hit enough and is playing out of position. 

[Reptevia]

They are all too expensive. 

[OvertheHill]

Carlson could be the new Margot I guess. At least he’d be able to play CF when needed. 

[Blyleven2011]

How to build a roster cheap ...

Develop within and let the prospects play  , can't be any worse than a collection of dumpster diving players ...

Where are all these drafted  shortstops that are very athletic and bat right handed ,  if the twins could be alittle more instrumental with these players in the minors and find a position they are comfortable playing  instead of making them uncomfortable  when they get to MLB  and then moving them to a position they have no experience at  ...

Develop your players in the minors to a different position if they are blocked  at the major league level  , we just seem to lack creativity in that department , we shouldn't have a lack of righthanded bats  ...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I feel like this is the usual story of the dumpster dive.  One player hasn't ever been good, one was sort of OK at one point in his career, and one has been at least OK but will come with a high price tag.  To me the only real option here for the Twins (if there is one and if we really want one) is Dylan Carlson.  He had one good year, one OK year, and some not much -- kinda reminds me of Max Kepler!  (OK, that was a little mean, but. . .  ?)

[CRF]

No thanks. 

[JD-TWINS]

49 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Was it just an oversight not to list what the potential cost of Hays would be?  It's a pretty important factoid when your dealing with a "Pohlad right-sized budget."  Certainly De La Cruz is out of any consideration.  There is just nothing about him to get excited about.  Certainly not at 4 million.  Not even at $1 million.

Hays and Carlson are a different story.  Hays has the bat and prior to 2024 was a pretty good defensive LF.  Depending on cost, he would be at the top of the list and I think the Twins should give him heavy consideration.  Especially with Larnach already penciled in and E-Rod probably up by the All Star break, Hays is that RH OF bat the Twins have been looking for since they let Rooker get away.  

Carlson's defense alone makes him interesting, especially his ability to play a very good CF.  He just can't hit.  Could the Twins fix him?  That's the $64 dollar question, because of the three, he's the best overall defensive OF and the most affordable (which is terribly important to the current ownership).  If he could hit just enough, he makes sense as a 4th OF.  

Because I'd like to see Keirsey get a chance, I'd go for Hays (depending on what he would cost) because Keirsey would be Buxton's backup and Hays would cover LF/RF.  Having a guy that can play INF and OF like Willi Castro makes it easier to end up having 2 OF on your bench with a backup catcher.  

To me, it looks pretty clear that Hays would come in around $6.4M in ‘25, per the post above.

His capabilities shown in ‘24 would lead one to stick with the “hard pass” comment from another here. Keep Castro, as he is just as good of an outfielder with capabilities to play 3 spots in the infield. Same cost. Right handed Castro doesn’t fit the bill but Hays doesn’t appear to be a good move w/o a bunch of risk. Better off using youth and rotating them for opportunities with their available options.

Can live with Martin’s OF production and defense if they upgrade at 1B!

[gman]

Sounds like a waste of time and roster space.  I much prefer Martin, Eeles and Holland get their shots in the outfield.

[DJL44]

D) Ramon Laureano

[Jeff K]

No, nyet, nunca!

[mikelink45]

Why?  We have minor leaguers and players on the roster than can be as good as these three.  No reason to stay in the scrapheap business.  

I keep thinking about left/right and all the Twins hitting coaches at all levels.  Can't we develop more skill at left/left right/right batting?

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, gman said:

Sounds like a waste of time and roster space.  I much prefer Martin, Eeles and Holland get their shots in the outfield.

The best bat is Hays but $6.4M is the same price that many complained about Castro's. IMO there's no comparison. Everybody here are saying the same thing that I was going to say. I'll just add stop looking for another expensive Margot that nobody wants to pay for, like last season, while the best solution is in-house. (RH) Buxton we have (LH) Keirsey, to cover the corners we have (BH) Castro & (RH) Martin. We have (RH) Martin, Helman & Keaschal that we can rotate from AAA to MLB, to cover the few LHPs that we face. Again I'll say I'd rather have no action than a bad action. Last offseason I'd rather them do nothing than the actions they did do.

[DocBauer]

Not picking on Adam directly and his OP, but I get weary of every other roster idea mentioning the Twins need a RH OF who can play CF. Why? Since Buxton is RH and 75% of all pitchers are RH, having a LH CF option is actually a good thing. Because Larnach and Wallner are LH? A backup CF isn't in direct competition with either of them, and does nothing to help with a platoon situation if Buxton is out.

OK...sorry...that's been really bugging me.

Keirsey and Helman are both solid CF options behind Buxton. Keirsey probably a little better from what I hear and read, and they are different player types, both potentially valuable. Sorry Martin fans, but what I saw last season puts him clearly behind those 2 currently. Rodriguez will be ready at some point in 2025 with good health. Keirsey and Helman should battle it out for the opening day #2 CF option, even though both can play elsewhere/everywhere.

As to the OP, hard NO to DeLaCruz. MILD interest in Carlson. But former top 20 prospect or not, did he ever hit RH pitching in the minors? Because he sure hasn't hit RH arms at the ML level, or really hit at all for that matter. I'd be interested in Hays if the Twins end up with enough $ to offer him around $6M, but I don't think they'll be able to.

While i haven't done a "you are the GM" as of this time, my eyes are set on Randal Grichuk for $4-5M or Ramon Laureano for around $3-4M.

Grichuk can play the corners and has a higher career OPS than Hays against BOTH LH AND RH pitchers. At 33yo...actually coming off a solid season...I don't think he gets the big deal he wants. He might be a perfect fit foe the Twibs and 350 AB.

Laureano can help in CF without having to be the primary option there. He's not a slugger, but he's got power and can steal a base here and there. He's also got a career OPS of .727 against RH pitching. (.802 against LH).

Both of these guys are every bit as good and probably better than the 3 names mentioned in the OP. And they would/should be in the middle ground $ wise between Hays and the other two. 

So no thank you. I'm grabbing Grichuk or Laureano, and I might offer Laureano a 2yr deal.

[Trov]

Hays is intriguing to me.  He would never had been non-tendered had he not had the kidney issue.  If that is behind him I think a team will get him a on a make good 1 year deal and could show that he is an above average OF.  Should we sign him, that I am on the fence on, but for the right price he would be worth a flier.  

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Keirsey and Helman are both solid CF options behind Buxton.

They're both marginal CF options behind Buxton. Neither one seems to have the bat of an  MLB OF.

[chpettit19]

No thanks to these 3 and any of the other 1 year vet deals with the goal of finding a league average bat who isn't a complete disaster in CF. Give me Emmanuel Rodriguez on the opening day roster with Keirsey in AAA ready to fill in as needed. Or if Emma "skipping" AAA is too much for you put Keirsey on the opening day roster and give Emma a month in AAA to make yourself feel better about things. But take the upside.

Stop shooting for average and being shocked that the team maxes out at 84 wins and first round playoff exits. Stop seeking out players who need to be put in ideal situations to succeed and being shocked when those ideal situations aren't easily found on a regular basis over 162 games and are really hard to manufacture in the playoffs. Yes, Correa is expensive and most prospects (even the top ones) fail, but here's a news flash: you need Correa and top prospects to win. Emma may fall flat on his face. Just like Carlson did. Carlson is who he is. Why in the world would you sign a failed prospect who's best hope is that he's a solid defender and bad bat instead of just using your internal solid defender who still has the chance of being better than a bad bat? Even if Emma is just an average bat you've already improved upon the Carlson signing because he's every bit the defender Carlson is. For cheaper. Shoot, Keirsey can defend and be a bad bat for cheaper.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

No thanks to these 3 and any of the other 1 year vet deals with the goal of finding a league average bat who isn't a complete disaster in CF. Give me Emmanuel Rodriguez on the opening day roster with Keirsey in AAA ready to fill in as needed. Or if Emma "skipping" AAA is too much for you put Keirsey on the opening day roster and give Emma a month in AAA to make yourself feel better about things. But take the upside.

They will need Rodriguez, Keirsey AND another OF bat to get through 2025. Right now, the DH slot is wide open and the 4th outfielder is AAA caliber.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not sure why we are discussing these three specifically.  Your 4th OF typically brings one strong skill and is lacking in others, hence 4th OF.  There is no Robbie Grossman or Billy Hamilton here.  At best, they match what the Twins have in AAA and would be more expensive.  Kind of a non-starter discussion. 

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If we had to choose one of these three I'd go with Carlson for his defensive flexibility.

Which brings me to a question that has been bugging me... why do the Twins ALWAYS seem to be needing a RH'd outfielder?  Are they adverse to drafting and developing a true RH'ed starter?  Do they always draft for LH'ed hitting due to facing more RH'ed pitching?  Martin was acquired but he is light-hitting.  Where are all the drafted RH'ed outfielders?

They had one. There was just an article posted on him a couple days ago

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They will need Rodriguez, Keirsey AND another OF bat to get through 2025. Right now, the DH slot is wide open and the 4th outfielder is AAA caliber.

All the more reason not to plug one of these guys in for $5 mil. Plug Rodriguez in to LF, put Larnach in the DH spot and Keaschall is your other OF bat for 2025. Or Castro is. Or Martin is. Or Eeles is. Or Helman is. Or Jenkins is. Or any random guy of the same talent level of these 3 that you can pick up at the trade deadline for a PTBNL or cash is. Or any random waiver pickup is.

The Twins have no money. If they maneuver things around to bring in somebody of this caliber what is the point? How much better is Dylan Carlson than Dashawn Keirsey? Carlson and his -1.2 bWAR and 61 OPS+ really the answer? The 47 OPS+ he had with StL for the first half of the year (59 games) really something we're convinced Keirsey can't do for league minimum so we need to spend millions on Carlson?

De La Cruz is an awful defender. Absolutely terrible. And he's had back to back below average years with the bat after having been a league average bat in his first full year. He's Manuel Margot without the extreme splits so you don't even get the way above average bat against lefties. 

Austin Hays is interesting. If you're going to sign one of these guys he's the one you sign. He's the only one even worth discussing. You can probably expect league average production with the bat out of him. He's not a very good defender but has a big arm. He's probably Kepler's bat but not his glove. He'll at least be a positive player instead of a negative like those other 2, though.

I just don't get why people want more Margot, Farmer, Gallo, Luplow, Garlick types, though. What is the point? These guys get the Twins no closer to playoff success than they are today. None. Not even a little. How sturdy do people want this floor? They've built the floor. It's sturdy enough. Can we start working on raising the ceiling?

[Jim wyllie]

Definite pass on all 3 and I would also like to point out that this past season martin actually made a really good play on a deep fly ball to center when buxton was hurt.  So is defense isn't bad he just hasn't had consistent playing time at one position 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

No thanks to these 3 and any of the other 1 year vet deals with the goal of finding a league average bat who isn't a complete disaster in CF. Give me Emmanuel Rodriguez on the opening day roster with Keirsey in AAA ready to fill in as needed. Or if Emma "skipping" AAA is too much for you put Keirsey on the opening day roster and give Emma a month in AAA to make yourself feel better about things. But take the upside.

Stop shooting for average and being shocked that the team maxes out at 84 wins and first round playoff exits. Stop seeking out players who need to be put in ideal situations to succeed and being shocked when those ideal situations aren't easily found on a regular basis over 162 games and are really hard to manufacture in the playoffs. Yes, Correa is expensive and most prospects (even the top ones) fail, but here's a news flash: you need Correa and top prospects to win. Emma may fall flat on his face. Just like Carlson did. Carlson is who he is. Why in the world would you sign a failed prospect who's best hope is that he's a solid defender and bad bat instead of just using your internal solid defender who still has the chance of being better than a bad bat? Even if Emma is just an average bat you've already improved upon the Carlson signing because he's every bit the defender Carlson is. For cheaper. Shoot, Keirsey can defend and be a bad bat for cheaper.

CH, Your view is my view exactly. 

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

All the more reason not to plug one of these guys in for $5 mil. Plug Rodriguez in to LF, put Larnach in the DH spot and Keaschall is your other OF bat for 2025. Or Castro is. Or Martin is. Or Eeles is. Or Helman is. Or Jenkins is. Or any random guy of the same talent level of these 3 that you can pick up at the trade deadline for a PTBNL or cash is. Or any random waiver pickup is.

Keaschall is quite likely to suck if sent directly to MLB in 2025. We already know Martin sucks. Eeles can't play CF. They need to get another outfielder who is BETTER than those guys. I agree that two of the three guys listed in this article also suck. That doesn't mean they should go into the season depending on Double-A talent.

14 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

Definite pass on all 3 and I would also like to point out that this past season martin actually made a really good play on a deep fly ball to center when buxton was hurt.  So is defense isn't bad he just hasn't had consistent playing time at one position 

Nearly every outfielder in MLB made one really good play last season. Making one good play does not make a player a good defender.

[Sjoski]

4 hours ago, Old Crow said:

Kind of like going to a junk yard to replace a 2nd car

Well said. Reminds me of:

What do the Minnesota Vikings and a car in the junk yard have in common?

Neither one has a title.

[chpettit19]

53 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Keaschall is quite likely to suck if sent directly to MLB in 2025. We already know Martin sucks. Eeles can't play CF. They need to get another outfielder who is BETTER than those guys. I agree that two of the three guys listed in this article also suck. That doesn't mean they should go into the season depending on Double-A talent.

Nearly every outfielder in MLB made one really good play last season. Making one good play does not make a player a good defender.

Keaschall isn't going to start the 2025 season in MLB, but he can be the extra bat you mentioned, unless you think they need another bat OFer on the opening day roster in which case we just simply disagree on that since they'll have Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Rodriguez, Castro, and Martin in my scenario with Keirsey and Helman at AAA. Keaschall can start in AA and still be part of the MLB solution in 2025 as the 9th OFer. 10th if you're willing to play Eeles in LF. Austin Martin had a better OPS+ than either Carlson or De La Cruz in 2024. Only Carlson from this list can play CF so I'm not sure why that criterion automatically eliminates Eeles. And since the only guy from this article who doesn't suck can't play CF I really don't get why the criteria would eliminate Eeles. Not sure where I've said they should depend on AA talent anywhere.

Who are the Twins going to sign for 3-5 million after clearing money by trading away current MLB talent that are going to be significantly better than the in-house guys? Nobody on this list meets the level of "significantly better." Who are they going to bring in for no real money that is significantly better? And if it's somebody who's going to actually cost real money or real trade value how are they getting the money or who are they trading? 

[nicksaviking]

If you need these guys to play, then you aren't playing for anything meaningful in 2025 anyway. I just don't understand the point unless the point is to put on a façade of activity.