Should Griffin Jax Get Another Shot in the Twins' Starting Rotation?

[Cody Pirkl]

He's coming off a dominant 2024 season as the anchor of a shaky Twins bullpen. As the offseason ramps up, it sounds like Jax’s role could change. But does it make any sense for the Twins roster?

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

In an otherwise quiet offseason so far, a very impactful bit of Twins speculation dropped on Wednesday, leaving fans to wonder whether they’ll see Griffin Jax closing down games for the team in 2025. Does it make any sense for the team to change his role?

While this isn’t exactly a commitment on the Twins' part to move Jax to the rotation, it is noteworthy, after Jax made it known that he wanted to have another shot at the starting rotation several times in 2024. It makes sense for him, as there’s more money to be found as a solid starting pitcher than even a high-leverage reliever. The Twins should be highly skeptical of how it benefits their roster to make this move, though.

The Minnesota bullpen ranked 9th in the AL with a 4.12 ERA in 2024 and was a big reason for the team’s collapse down the stretch. There’s plenty to like about the returning names, but counting on players like Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, and even Jhoan Durán in 2025 seems like a much riskier bet after watching 2024 play out. While relief pitchers are volatile, Jax appears to be the safest bet of the current group after posting a 2.03 ERA in 71 innings. Moving Jax would leave an enormous hole in the back end of games, and this regime has given us enough evidence to assume they would not be bringing in another reliever of any consequence to bridge the gap.

In regard to the rotation, the Twins' starting pitching is not as much in question, when it comes to high-end talent or depth. Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan are a formidable top three. Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack should have the inside track on the other two spots, assuming they’re both on the Opening Day roster. In addition to David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who debuted in 2024, the team has several exciting young arms expected to open the season in St. Paul, including Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and Andrew Morris. One could argue that the team should be looking to deal pieces away from this group, rather than pulling from other parts of the roster to reinforce it.

When it comes to Jax’s desire to move back to the rotation, it’s hard to blame him. In addition to the financial incentives, he’s done a lot to warrant another opportunity. He posted a 6.37 ERA in his debut, as his two-pitch mix got crushed. In the three years since, he’s developed a repertoire that includes two different fastballs, two breaking balls, and an effective changeup. He has the tools to work through lineups multiple times, theoretically, and it’s easy to see why he would be confident in his ability to work through opposing lineups multiple times. He did force both lefties and righties to respect three or four possible pitch types, which is a key factor for a would-be starter.

Unfortunately, it's not that simple after three years of pitching out of the bullpen. Jax’s assortment of pitches had strong indicators in metrics like Stuff+ and performed exceptionally well, but that was in short bursts where he could give 100% effort on every pitch. There were whispers that Jax preferred not to pitch more than a single inning at a time because of the intensity he summoned to execute that way. He only pitched more than one inning in five of his seventy-two appearances in 2024. He’s conditioned to pitch in short stints at this point. His stuff will decline as he’s stretched back out, and it’s impossible to say to what degree. His career high in innings pitched is 127, coming back in 2019. Injury must also be a concern if he were to build back up. 

In moving Jax to the starting rotation, the Twins would be making a significant gamble. In order to make up for the loss of Jax’s dominance in the bullpen, he would have to be a mid to high-end starting pitcher, especially considering that his innings will likely be limited. Given their current depth chart, the team simply wouldn’t benefit from a middling or back-end starting pitcher. Adding one to the current group would accomplish nothing other than blocking the young arms they already have. 

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• Read more: A Big, Creative Cubs-Twins Trade That Just Might Work for Both Teams

It would be hard to blame the Twins for respecting Jax’s wishes, but it’s hard to imagine taking one of the bright spots from a disastrous 2024 season and completely changing their role. There is a reality where Griffin Jax, the starting pitcher, pays off for the Twins, but given the need for him in the bullpen and the current state of the rotation, it seems like the Twins would be betting against the odds. 

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Should the Twins give Jax a shot at the rotation? Should he remain the anchor of a currently questionable bullpen? Let us know below!

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Just came here to say that Reynaldo Lopez, in 2023, pitched in 68 games. Only 6 of those appearances went for more than 1 inning. He then went on to throw 135 really good starter innings in 2024.

Im not certain if Jax could also make the jump. But his stuff and command are better now than in 2021. Id be open to giving it a shot

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just came here to say that Reynaldo Lopez, in 2023, pitched in 68 games. Only 6 of those appearances went for more than 1 inning. He then went on to throw 135 really good starter innings in 2024.

Im not certain if Jax could also make the jump. But his stuff and command are better now than in 2021. Id be open to giving it a shot

If the twins were to treat Jax like the Braves treated Lopez, basically a 6 inning 90 pitch pitcher from the start, then I would consider it. I don't believe the Twins would do that, so my answer would be no.

[Doctor Wu]

19 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just came here to say that Reynaldo Lopez, in 2023, pitched in 68 games. Only 6 of those appearances went for more than 1 inning. He then went on to throw 135 really good starter innings in 2024.

Im not certain if Jax could also make the jump. But his stuff and command are better now than in 2021. Id be open to giving it a shot

The idea of Jax going back to a starter's role is intriguing. On one hand, you don't want to mess with a winning formula, due to his dominance in the bullpen this past season. We obviously need more shut-down weapons in the pen. But he's still young and it seems like he has the will and determination to try and tackle a bigger role ... so, why not? 

[Cody Pirkl]

41 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just came here to say that Reynaldo Lopez, in 2023, pitched in 68 games. Only 6 of those appearances went for more than 1 inning. He then went on to throw 135 really good starter innings in 2024.

Im not certain if Jax could also make the jump. But his stuff and command are better now than in 2021. Id be open to giving it a shot

There are tons of examples of guys making the transition successfully and Jax certainly could do it. 

In Lopez's specific case though, he blew out and wasn't available to the Braves down the stretch when they needed him most.

[Cory Engelhardt]

22 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

There are tons of examples of guys making the transition successfully and Jax certainly could do it. 

In Lopez's specific case though, he blew out and wasn't available to the Braves down the stretch when they needed him most.

Which makes me still go to a place that this is coming out because they want Jax’s trade value to be that of a starter. If some team will trade for him as if he were a starter, then more would be coming back right?

[Eris]

From Griffin Jax’ perspective, a good starting pitcher is normally worth more than a good relief pitcher. Therefore he should be given that opportunity. 

[Trov]

I guess my thoughts are if the team feels putting him in rotation gives them the best chance to make playoffs in a 162 game season, then look into that.  I do not know if he will be better at starting than any of the others on our list.  Could some of them get moved to pen and do well?  I fully get why Jax would want to, mostly the money.  He is going to be 30 next year, birthday next week, and still will not be FA until his 32 season.  A good year starting, some pen guys did that last year switching back to starters, could fetch him several more millions in his mid-30's.  

I would be willing to give him a shot, but not give him the roll.  Let him fight it out over other guys and see who is better and can go through lineup over 2 times. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

40 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Which makes me still go to a place that this is coming out because they want Jax’s trade value to be that of a starter. If some team will trade for him as if he were a starter, then more would be coming back right?

I’m not sure if the Twins are saying this but if it bumps up his trade value they aren’t going to mind. I don’t like the idea of the Twins giving him another shot at starting but if someone else wants to do it and will pay a premium for that in a trade then I’d move him. I like Jax a lot but with the payroll constraints the FO is working under these are the types of tough decisions that are going to have to be made.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

There is a reason that all major league teams pay good starting pitchers way more than good end of game relievers. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO we have no choice but to make Jax happy. Give him some time to adjust & see how it goes. If it doesn't work out then he can go back to the pen. Varland could be in the same boat where he needs to be put in the BP where he can excel until he develops his stuff. When he develops his stuff he could be given a chance, Cody had a nice article on to be proactive on some pitchers to the pen, We'd need to find a way to fill that big hole that Jax'll leave. I think Varland could take that step, It'll be a while before we can count on Canterino or Priellip to fill that role.

[Cody Pirkl]

36 minutes ago, Eris said:

From Griffin Jax’ perspective, a good starting pitcher is normally worth more than a good relief pitcher. Therefore he should be given that opportunity. 

Seth Lugo had to wait until free agency and change teams to try starting again because moving him didn't work best for the Mets roster. That's how it goes in baseball sometimes, the players don't always get to play the position they want to if it doesn't fit into the teams plans. See Royce Lewis at second base.

[Cody Pirkl]

24 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO we have no choice but to make Jax happy. Give him some time to adjust & see how it goes. If it doesn't work out then he can go back to the pen. Varland could be in the same boat where he needs to be put in the BP where he can excel until he develops his stuff. When he develops his stuff he could be given a chance, Cody had a nice article on to be proactive on some pitchers to the pen, We'd need to find a way to fill that big hole that Jax'll leave. I think Varland could take that step, It'll be a while before we can count on Canterino or Priellip to fill that role.

Id argue the Twins absolutely have a choice here. Jax doesn't have them over a barrel, he's still under team control. 

[Cody Pirkl]

29 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

There is a reason that all major league teams pay good starting pitchers way more than good end of game relievers. 

In a vacuum, yes. Starting pitchers are more valuable than relief pitchers. If Jax were a high end starter, it would blow his value as a high end reliever out of the water. That being said, the odds of any pitcher switching from the bullpen and becoming a high end starter are not high regardless of examples we can cite.

Id argue that if Jax made a switch and became a solid starting pitcher (which would be a great outcome), it would have less impact on this particular roster than if he remained a high end reliever.

[mickster]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

The idea of Jax going back to a starter's role is intriguing. On one hand, you don't want to mess with a winning formula, due to his dominance in the bullpen this past season. We obviously need more shut-down weapons in the pen. But he's still young and it seems like he has the will and determination to try and tackle a bigger role ... so, why not? 

Give it a shot - can always revert to a BP role.   Varland is an example of a below average starter, but excels in the pen

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If Jax goes back to starting, his velocity will drop because you can’t give 100% effort for six innings at a time which will change his effectiveness.  His career high innings pitched totals will be obliterated, which certainly raises the possibility of injury.  He was the best part of a bullpen last year that was a little shaky.  The Twins have pretty solid depth in the starting pitching lineup.  

Why would you move him?  In hopes of finding a unicorn (there are examples, but certainly more failures) that can do this?  Because you think he will move from shutdown reliever to #3 level starter or above when his previous stint was something just north of terrible?  Because he wants to do it without regard for team considerations?  (Please note:  I would also like a pony.)  Because starters make more money than relievers?  Yes, but injured starters who never make it are out of the league and make nothing. 

I’m thinking that we don’t want to ruin something that we have.  YMMV.

 

 

 

[bean5302]

There are two risks to the scenario. One is performance, but the other is injury. Starter, bullpen, starter has been done before. I think the most successful story of that all time is John Smoltz, but Smoltz was a dominant starter who moved the 'pen because of injury recovery.

Jax's velocity is going to drop in the bullpen, probably by about 2mph. His pitches will not be nearly as effective when that happens. It's also fair to wonder whether last year was Jax's career year. As his velo drops, does he become a 3.00 ERA or 3.50 ERA guy or a 4.50 ERA guy is the question from a performance standpoint. Is his preparation still in order for being a rotation guy? How will his 30 year old body react to a workload he's never seen before? Keep in mind, Jax has never pitched more than 120 innings in a year, even back when he was a starter.

There is value to both the Twins and Jax if he can succeed. Some of the questions might be answered with the Twins' other offseason moves like trading a starter or Duran.

[DJL44]

The key for 2025 is how much better he is than rookie Festa or sophomore Woods-Richardson. If Jax can provide as much value in the rotation as he did in the bullpen AND either of those pitchers would provide 0 WAR, then it's a good move. If Festa and Woods-Richardson would be fine in the 4-5 slots OR Jax can't pitch to a 4.20 RA9 (or better) in the rotation, then it's going to be a downgrade for the team in the short term.

In the long-term, if they can convert Jax to a decent starter they can trade him off for a much bigger haul at the trade deadline or next offseason.

[AKTwinsFan]

He's seasoned. Festa and Matthews even swr are all good, but blew most of the final games of the season. He's got the pitch mix to be effective so why not? Unless they plan to sign another starter for $15m+ then it's viable.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Which makes me still go to a place that this is coming out because they want Jax’s trade value to be that of a starter. If some team will trade for him as if he were a starter, then more would be coming back right?

It's coming out because he said he wants to do it. Publicity.

I've changed my mind and now believe they should give it a shot for April. 

[jmlease1]

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: No, because the odds of him having sustained success as a starter aren't all that great, and he has found far more success as a reliever, in ways that look repeatable and sustainable that are most likely not true as a starter. the issue of max effort has come up by many here already, but it's a real issue as an actual starter. you have to pace yourself through the game at least somewhat. Do teams have starters worrying less about that now as they pull guys before they go through the order a 3rd time? Sure, but it's unquestionably harder to maintain velocity deeper into games especially through the grind of a full season. It's one thing to gut through it in april/may and another to be able to summon that velocity in late august. Jax has improved his stuff, which is a point in his favor, but how does that changeup look when guys have already seen it? His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings? Can he throw it enough as a starter? that fastball got a lot better when it went from 92-93 to 96-98 mph too.

he's a real weapon in the bullpen. He struggled mightily as a starter. Yes, he's almost certainly a better pitcher now than he was then, but part of that is because he's throwing so much harder. It would be a huge gamble to see if he can maintain velocity deep in games and be effective as a starter, because you're really not going to know until you've given him 5-6 starts in MLB. Because he's not going to be throwing that deep in spring training even if they have him prepare to start. So you're either taking a the risk and hoping or taking the word of the player (and players are notorious unreliable in their ability to assess whether they can do something or not) that it'll work.

We need him in the bullpen. he's been great in the bullpen. We probably don't need him as a starter. He was bad as a starter. keep him in the bullpen.

I mean, go ahead and have the conversation with him. But I would explain it to him exactly like that: we need you in the bullpen, where you're great. the team needs you there. I think he'll get it.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: No, because the odds of him having sustained success as a starter aren't all that great, and he has found far more success as a reliever, in ways that look repeatable and sustainable that are most likely not true as a starter. the issue of max effort has come up by many here already, but it's a real issue as an actual starter. you have to pace yourself through the game at least somewhat. Do teams have starters worrying less about that now as they pull guys before they go through the order a 3rd time? Sure, but it's unquestionably harder to maintain velocity deeper into games especially through the grind of a full season. It's one thing to gut through it in april/may and another to be able to summon that velocity in late august. Jax has improved his stuff, which is a point in his favor, but how does that changeup look when guys have already seen it? His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings? Can he throw it enough as a starter? that fastball got a lot better when it went from 92-93 to 96-98 mph too.

he's a real weapon in the bullpen. He struggled mightily as a starter. Yes, he's almost certainly a better pitcher now than he was then, but part of that is because he's throwing so much harder. It would be a huge gamble to see if he can maintain velocity deep in games and be effective as a starter, because you're really not going to know until you've given him 5-6 starts in MLB. Because he's not going to be throwing that deep in spring training even if they have him prepare to start. So you're either taking a the risk and hoping or taking the word of the player (and players are notorious unreliable in their ability to assess whether they can do something or not) that it'll work.

We need him in the bullpen. he's been great in the bullpen. We probably don't need him as a starter. He was bad as a starter. keep him in the bullpen.

I mean, go ahead and have the conversation with him. But I would explain it to him exactly like that: we need you in the bullpen, where you're great. the team needs you there. I think he'll get it.

He knows all this. Like any professional athlete, he's a competitor and likely sees this as a challenge. And a way to make waaaaaaay more money. 

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings?

That is the key, though I don't ever expect Jax to go 7 innings. If he moves to the rotation, he will be a 5-inning pitcher for the first season.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm all for it.  After seeing Lopez and Lugo succeed they way they did last year it's not an idea that has no merit.  Jax would never be asked to throw more than 5 innings in a game.  In a way, it would be a lot like having Sonny Gray (with Rocco as the manager).  30 starts, 5 innings per start, 150 innings.  Maybe a few starts don't go 5 innings and he's skipped a couple times throughout the 162 game season and he's at 135-140 innings.  

There is no question he's a completely different pitcher now than in 2019.  Nobody would know how Jax could train to adapt his body to a different role than Jax himself.  And I'm pretty sure there isn't a player on the entire roster who works harder than Griffin Jax.  

Moving him weakens the BP temporarily but has the potential to improve the rotation and open up the possibility of trading one of the SP's for a player who could fill a big weakness.  With the SP talent currently climbing up the minor league levels and having Festa, SWR and Matthews all gaining valuable experience last year this idea has a chance.  Perhaps the Twins deal SWR when his value is at it's highest to plug a current hole in the roster?

Signing a LH RP like Aroldis Chapman who is LH, could close, as well as hold down the 8th inning would help relieve the risk of moving Jax to the rotation.  Having Varland, Prielipp and (dare I hope...) Matt Canterino available to shoulder some of the BP load would also help.

This would be a move not made for just 2025, but also for 2026 and beyond.  As Jax gets more expensive (aka VALUABLE) his trade value also increases. 

I just know that if I had to bet on a guy on the Twins roster working his tail off to get better and succeed in a new role, Griffin Jax would be one guy I wouldn't bet against.   

[Riverbrian]

Radio Audience measurement is a pretty simple formula. Cume X TSL. Cume is how many listeners tune in. TSL is time spent listening... How Long do they listen. 

Pitching measurement is kind of the same in my way of thinking.  

Can you Hang Zeroes (Cume). And how many can you hang (Time spent listening).

If Griffin Jax can hang zeroes and double the amount of innings that he throws. You do it. 

If he can't... He stays in his current role. 

The more innings he can throw... the higher value of the radio station.   

 

[KBJ1]

When healthy, this rotation has 4 solid starters. In this day and age, you need 5 or 6. If Jax can be a $15M mid level starter, we would then have (and must spend) that $15M on 3 very good bullpen arms. That would be a win/win situation.

Otherwise, NO!

[HerbieFan]

In a word....NO.  We've seen him as a starter and it was....not very good.

[tony&rodney]

Teams move a guy to the rotation because of a need. I sense a lack of confidence among a number of people on Twin Daily in the starting pitching. Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson as a top five with Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya working in AAA to prove their worth until needed/called upon seems like a solid collection.

Moving Jax to the rotation might make sense if the Twins trade a starting pitcher. Jax may prefer to start and this may boost his value to teams who are looking at acquiring him in a trade. As is, Jax would not slot in to the current rotation options, certainly not above the top five or six.

The Twins need to be focused on adding several position players. As of today, only three spots in the field are spoken for (SS, CF, RF) with a collection of DH's to distribute around the remaining positions. The largest gain to the pitching staff, by far, would be to improve the defense behind the guys on the mound.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He knows all this. Like any professional athlete, he's a competitor and likely sees this as a challenge. And a way to make waaaaaaay more money. 

He will make way more money as a starter because.....? Give up? It's because starters are more valuable than relievers. Period. Move Jax to STARTER. Tell him now to start getting ready and to get in the best shape of his life. He needs to go to Drive Line, the same training camp he went to last winter, which by the way was where Jax was told why he could be a successful starter, even after taking into consideration that he will lose some velo. His trainer/teacher wrote that Jax's stuff, control and wide variety of good pitches (5) was so good that he can still be successful as a starter and his injuries have been very negligible.  

[DannySD]

Absolutley. It's their best chance of having a dominant rotation. Varland can take his pen spot.