Should Griffin Jax Get Another Shot in the Twins' Starting Rotation?

12 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just came here to say that Reynaldo Lopez, in 2023, pitched in 68 games. Only 6 of those appearances went for more than 1 inning. He then went on to throw 135 really good starter innings in 2024.

Im not certain if Jax could also make the jump. But his stuff and command are better now than in 2021. Id be open to giving it a shot

If the twins were to treat Jax like the Braves treated Lopez, basically a 6 inning 90 pitch pitcher from the start, then I would consider it. I don't believe the Twins would do that, so my answer would be no.

19 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Just came here to say that Reynaldo Lopez, in 2023, pitched in 68 games. Only 6 of those appearances went for more than 1 inning. He then went on to throw 135 really good starter innings in 2024.

Im not certain if Jax could also make the jump. But his stuff and command are better now than in 2021. Id be open to giving it a shot

The idea of Jax going back to a starter's role is intriguing. On one hand, you don't want to mess with a winning formula, due to his dominance in the bullpen this past season. We obviously need more shut-down weapons in the pen. But he's still young and it seems like he has the will and determination to try and tackle a bigger role ... so, why not? 

I guess my thoughts are if the team feels putting him in rotation gives them the best chance to make playoffs in a 162 game season, then look into that.  I do not know if he will be better at starting than any of the others on our list.  Could some of them get moved to pen and do well?  I fully get why Jax would want to, mostly the money.  He is going to be 30 next year, birthday next week, and still will not be FA until his 32 season.  A good year starting, some pen guys did that last year switching back to starters, could fetch him several more millions in his mid-30's.  

I would be willing to give him a shot, but not give him the roll.  Let him fight it out over other guys and see who is better and can go through lineup over 2 times. 

40 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Which makes me still go to a place that this is coming out because they want Jax’s trade value to be that of a starter. If some team will trade for him as if he were a starter, then more would be coming back right?

I’m not sure if the Twins are saying this but if it bumps up his trade value they aren’t going to mind. I don’t like the idea of the Twins giving him another shot at starting but if someone else wants to do it and will pay a premium for that in a trade then I’d move him. I like Jax a lot but with the payroll constraints the FO is working under these are the types of tough decisions that are going to have to be made.

IMO we have no choice but to make Jax happy. Give him some time to adjust & see how it goes. If it doesn't work out then he can go back to the pen. Varland could be in the same boat where he needs to be put in the BP where he can excel until he develops his stuff. When he develops his stuff he could be given a chance, Cody had a nice article on to be proactive on some pitchers to the pen, We'd need to find a way to fill that big hole that Jax'll leave. I think Varland could take that step, It'll be a while before we can count on Canterino or Priellip to fill that role.

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

The idea of Jax going back to a starter's role is intriguing. On one hand, you don't want to mess with a winning formula, due to his dominance in the bullpen this past season. We obviously need more shut-down weapons in the pen. But he's still young and it seems like he has the will and determination to try and tackle a bigger role ... so, why not? 

Give it a shot - can always revert to a BP role.   Varland is an example of a below average starter, but excels in the pen

The key for 2025 is how much better he is than rookie Festa or sophomore Woods-Richardson. If Jax can provide as much value in the rotation as he did in the bullpen AND either of those pitchers would provide 0 WAR, then it's a good move. If Festa and Woods-Richardson would be fine in the 4-5 slots OR Jax can't pitch to a 4.20 RA9 (or better) in the rotation, then it's going to be a downgrade for the team in the short term.

In the long-term, if they can convert Jax to a decent starter they can trade him off for a much bigger haul at the trade deadline or next offseason.

He's seasoned. Festa and Matthews even swr are all good, but blew most of the final games of the season. He's got the pitch mix to be effective so why not? Unless they plan to sign another starter for $15m+ then it's viable.

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: No, because the odds of him having sustained success as a starter aren't all that great, and he has found far more success as a reliever, in ways that look repeatable and sustainable that are most likely not true as a starter. the issue of max effort has come up by many here already, but it's a real issue as an actual starter. you have to pace yourself through the game at least somewhat. Do teams have starters worrying less about that now as they pull guys before they go through the order a 3rd time? Sure, but it's unquestionably harder to maintain velocity deeper into games especially through the grind of a full season. It's one thing to gut through it in april/may and another to be able to summon that velocity in late august. Jax has improved his stuff, which is a point in his favor, but how does that changeup look when guys have already seen it? His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings? Can he throw it enough as a starter? that fastball got a lot better when it went from 92-93 to 96-98 mph too.

he's a real weapon in the bullpen. He struggled mightily as a starter. Yes, he's almost certainly a better pitcher now than he was then, but part of that is because he's throwing so much harder. It would be a huge gamble to see if he can maintain velocity deep in games and be effective as a starter, because you're really not going to know until you've given him 5-6 starts in MLB. Because he's not going to be throwing that deep in spring training even if they have him prepare to start. So you're either taking a the risk and hoping or taking the word of the player (and players are notorious unreliable in their ability to assess whether they can do something or not) that it'll work.

We need him in the bullpen. he's been great in the bullpen. We probably don't need him as a starter. He was bad as a starter. keep him in the bullpen.

I mean, go ahead and have the conversation with him. But I would explain it to him exactly like that: we need you in the bullpen, where you're great. the team needs you there. I think he'll get it.

29 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings?

That is the key, though I don't ever expect Jax to go 7 innings. If he moves to the rotation, he will be a 5-inning pitcher for the first season.

I'm all for it.  After seeing Lopez and Lugo succeed they way they did last year it's not an idea that has no merit.  Jax would never be asked to throw more than 5 innings in a game.  In a way, it would be a lot like having Sonny Gray (with Rocco as the manager).  30 starts, 5 innings per start, 150 innings.  Maybe a few starts don't go 5 innings and he's skipped a couple times throughout the 162 game season and he's at 135-140 innings.  

There is no question he's a completely different pitcher now than in 2019.  Nobody would know how Jax could train to adapt his body to a different role than Jax himself.  And I'm pretty sure there isn't a player on the entire roster who works harder than Griffin Jax.  

Moving him weakens the BP temporarily but has the potential to improve the rotation and open up the possibility of trading one of the SP's for a player who could fill a big weakness.  With the SP talent currently climbing up the minor league levels and having Festa, SWR and Matthews all gaining valuable experience last year this idea has a chance.  Perhaps the Twins deal SWR when his value is at it's highest to plug a current hole in the roster?

Signing a LH RP like Aroldis Chapman who is LH, could close, as well as hold down the 8th inning would help relieve the risk of moving Jax to the rotation.  Having Varland, Prielipp and (dare I hope...) Matt Canterino available to shoulder some of the BP load would also help.

This would be a move not made for just 2025, but also for 2026 and beyond.  As Jax gets more expensive (aka VALUABLE) his trade value also increases. 

I just know that if I had to bet on a guy on the Twins roster working his tail off to get better and succeed in a new role, Griffin Jax would be one guy I wouldn't bet against.   

When healthy, this rotation has 4 solid starters. In this day and age, you need 5 or 6. If Jax can be a $15M mid level starter, we would then have (and must spend) that $15M on 3 very good bullpen arms. That would be a win/win situation.

Otherwise, NO!

In a word....NO.  We've seen him as a starter and it was....not very good.

Teams move a guy to the rotation because of a need. I sense a lack of confidence among a number of people on Twin Daily in the starting pitching. Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson as a top five with Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya working in AAA to prove their worth until needed/called upon seems like a solid collection.

Moving Jax to the rotation might make sense if the Twins trade a starting pitcher. Jax may prefer to start and this may boost his value to teams who are looking at acquiring him in a trade. As is, Jax would not slot in to the current rotation options, certainly not above the top five or six.

The Twins need to be focused on adding several position players. As of today, only three spots in the field are spoken for (SS, CF, RF) with a collection of DH's to distribute around the remaining positions. The largest gain to the pitching staff, by far, would be to improve the defense behind the guys on the mound.

20 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: No, because the odds of him having sustained success as a starter aren't all that great, and he has found far more success as a reliever, in ways that look repeatable and sustainable that are most likely not true as a starter. the issue of max effort has come up by many here already, but it's a real issue as an actual starter. you have to pace yourself through the game at least somewhat. Do teams have starters worrying less about that now as they pull guys before they go through the order a 3rd time? Sure, but it's unquestionably harder to maintain velocity deeper into games especially through the grind of a full season. It's one thing to gut through it in april/may and another to be able to summon that velocity in late august. Jax has improved his stuff, which is a point in his favor, but how does that changeup look when guys have already seen it? His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings? Can he throw it enough as a starter? that fastball got a lot better when it went from 92-93 to 96-98 mph too.

he's a real weapon in the bullpen. He struggled mightily as a starter. Yes, he's almost certainly a better pitcher now than he was then, but part of that is because he's throwing so much harder. It would be a huge gamble to see if he can maintain velocity deep in games and be effective as a starter, because you're really not going to know until you've given him 5-6 starts in MLB. Because he's not going to be throwing that deep in spring training even if they have him prepare to start. So you're either taking a the risk and hoping or taking the word of the player (and players are notorious unreliable in their ability to assess whether they can do something or not) that it'll work.

We need him in the bullpen. he's been great in the bullpen. We probably don't need him as a starter. He was bad as a starter. keep him in the bullpen.

I mean, go ahead and have the conversation with him. But I would explain it to him exactly like that: we need you in the bullpen, where you're great. the team needs you there. I think he'll get it.

Exactly.  If it ain't broke, don't fix it.