The Adjustment Behind Trevor Larnach's Power Outage

Throughout the offseason, Trevor Larnach worked to refine his approach at the plate, focusing on making more consistent contact and becoming a more complete offensive contributor. While that adjustment has shown some positive results, it has also coincided with a noticeable shift in his power profile.

Manager Derek Shelton pointed to several hard-hit balls during the Twins' recent road trip as evidence that better results could be on the horizon. However, Larnach's underlying metrics suggest a more significant change may be taking place. Since early May, he has increased his contact rate, but it appears to have come at the expense of the impact that made him one of Minnesota's most dangerous left-handed hitters.

Beginning with the road series against Washington and Cleveland, Larnach posted a .241/.320/.368 slash line, while averaging just 85.2 mph in exit velocity. His contact point has also moved significantly farther out in front of the plate compared to 2025. Ordinarily, hitting the ball out in front gives a player more power, but that hasn't happened for Larnach. Instead, he's become much less likely to drive the ball. 

That trend is particularly noteworthy considering the adjustments he has already made to his swing. Twins Daily reported in 2025 that Larnach had flattened his bat path, reducing his swing angle from 40 degrees to 34°. This season, that figure has dipped again, to 33°. The flatter swing has his contact point sliding forward, as you'd expect given that change in bat path. Now, he has to be early to do any damage—and he's managed to be early even on fastballs, at times.

The clearest example came during his home run against Pittsburgh. Larnach turned on a 98-mph fastball and made contact approximately 40.5 inches in front of his body—an unusually aggressive contact point against that velocity. The result was a home run, but the swing also raised an important question: Is Larnach intentionally moving his contact point forward, even more than the swing change would predict? And if so, how does that square with his apparent efforts to sacrifice power for contact?

The data suggests this may be less about timing and more about approach. In short, Larnach is selling out for the fastball. He's significantly increased the frequency with which he's on time against heaters this year (from 76% in 2025 to 81%), according to new data from Statcast, but because he's working hard to be there, he's also been early more often than ever against both offspeed (67% vs. 53%) and breaking (70% vs. 51%) offerings. His plan gives him a chance to hit fastballs hard, but he hasn't been accurate enough with his barrel to actually produce that result as often as in the past. Here are three images for his 2025 season, showing how often he was horizontally (left) and vertically (right) on or off the barrel for each pitch group type, along with (center) how often he was on time, early or late.

Now, here's the same set of images for 2026.

You can see that he's more on time against fastballs, but he's less likely to have centered the ball well on his barrel, horizontally. That's led to weaker contact against heaters, even though he's actually hit the ball more often.

Despite the decline in power production, there are encouraging signs. Larnach has become considerably more selective at the plate, increasing his walk rate to a career-best 13.7%. He lost that patience for a bit, but has regained it of late.

He's also hitting the ball in the air (and, specifically, both more line drives and more balls in the air to the pull field) more than ever. In many ways, Larnach's evolution reflects a hitter continuing to make adjustments. While the power numbers have suffered, the improved discipline has counterbalanced it, and he's staying afloat so far.

Whether this shift is the result of an organizational emphasis or simply a hitter searching for a more sustainable approach remains unclear. What is evident, however, is that the version of Larnach the Twins are seeing today looks different from the one who generated much of his power a season ago.

Larnach has been open about his struggles, as well as his growth. At the beginning of the season, it was obvious that he was confident in his process and that his commitment to the game was a priority. As he's found out the hard way, that's not enough. Baseball is still gut-wrenchingly hard, and hitting is the hardest part of the game. He's made an adjustment that has sort of worked, but the cost of it has been high. To be a viable, valuable corner outfielder for a team trying to claw its way back into contention in the American League Central, he might need to make another adjustment—another plan, another tweak of the approach that has yielded the results he's achieved so far.