It's Time to Start Worrying About Dasan Hill

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Malamut Photography (photo of Dasan Hill)

The Minnesota Twins entered the 2026 season without a clear-cut, consensus top-100 pitching prospect anywhere in the organization. That isn't necessarily a criticism of the system. They have several intriguing arms throughout the minors, but none carried the kind of national attention typically associated with elite pitching prospects. The hope, however, was that Dasan Hill would eventually become that guy.

After a breakout 2025 campaign that saw him post an ERA in the low 3.00s while striking out 31% of the hitters he faced, Hill looked like one of the most exciting young pitchers in the organization. At 6-foot-5 with a power left-handed arsenal and swing-and-miss stuff, the upside was obvious. If everything clicked, there was a path for Hill to develop into a future frontline starter.

Unfortunately, this season has brought far more questions than answers. Through 33 innings with High-A Cedar Rapids, Hill owns a 6.82 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. He's allowed 34 hits and struck out an impressive 53 batters, but those strikeouts have largely been offset by 30 walks.

That's where the real concern lies: the command issues are becoming impossible to ignore. Hill's stuff is still gross, there's no denying that. In fact, the bat-missing ability that made him so intriguing in the first place is still very much present. After posting a 31% strikeout rate last season, he's actually increased that number to 33% in 2026.

That's an elite figure. But when you're not locating, it doesn't really matter how good the stuff is. Hill's walk rate currently sits at an absurd 18.6%, and he's essentially handing out a free pass nearly every inning he takes the mound. That simply isn't going to work at higher levels of professional baseball, and opposing hitters have clearly figured that out.

One of the most telling statistics in Hill's profile this season is his swing rate. Opposing batters are offering at just 40% of the pitches he throws. That's an absurdly low number, especially when considering the quality of his arsenal.

For comparison, Taj Bradley (who has been dealing with command issues of his own this season) has a swing rate of 46%. A lot of his misses aren’t remotely close, either, and Hill is still significantly lower than that. Hitters have essentially adjusted their approach. They're forcing Hill to prove he can throw strikes consistently before offering at anything. And until he demonstrates that ability, there's little reason for opposing lineups to become more aggressive.

What's even more concerning is that this problem has gotten worse as the season has progressed. Over his last four starts, Hill has issued 14 walks in just 8 1/3 innings. Even if you remove the worst outing from that stretch — the appearance in which he walked six batters while recording only two outs — he's still averaging roughly a walk per inning.

At this point, the lackluster command can no longer be written off as early-season rust. We're more than two months into the season, and this has become a very legitimate problem. And that's especially frustrating, because despite the ugly ERA and the alarming walk totals, there are still plenty of things he's doing well.

For starters, he's generating ground balls at an extremely strong rate and doing an excellent job limiting extra-base damage. Opponents haven't been consistently squaring him up, which is important context when evaluating a pitcher whose surface-level numbers look this rough.

There's also a significant amount of bad luck mixed into the equation. Hill currently owns a .427 batting average on balls in play, which is an outrageously high number. While pitchers certainly have some influence over BABIP, a mark that extreme is not sustainable, even with the worse defense generally played in the minors. Eventually, that number is going to come down, and when it does, his hit totals should improve considerably. 

Hill will keep missing bats, too. Which means this entire conversation really comes back to one thing: the walks. If he can reduce the free passes and throw strikes more consistently, many of the other issues could begin correcting themselves rather quickly. The problem, of course, is that command isn't something pitchers simply decide to improve overnight, and this isn't exactly a new issue. Ever since the Twins selected Hill in the 2024 draft, command has been the biggest question surrounding his profile. The stuff has always been outstanding, but the ability to consistently locate within the strike zone has remained a work in progress.

That's why these struggles are particularly concerning. This isn't a pitcher who suddenly lost command after years of throwing strikes. This is an existing weakness that has gotten even worse.

The Twins were hoping he would take a major step this year toward becoming a future ace. Instead, he's spent the first two months raising serious questions about whether he'll be able to stick as a starter long term.

Regardless of how much upside is in there, pitchers eventually have to throw strikes; that’s why they’re “pitchers” and not “throwers.” And until Dasan Hill gets that piece under control, he's likely going to remain stuck in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

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[Ricky Vaughn]

He's still only 20 years old. Don't know if it still holds but the consensuses wisdom used to be that left handed pitchers generally take longer to develop. 

[jmlease1]

Eh. He's 20 years old in High A. Development is not linear, and the only reason to "worry" is because he got hyped a little too much too fast based on on some nifty peripherals and good work in 2025 in Ft. Myers.

Maybe this stretch of struggles will be the best thing for him as he'll stop being looked at as too high a prospect based on projection and can go back to just being a developmental arm with promise.

It hasn't been a good season at all for him, but we're supposed to worry about less than half a season in High A for a dude who's 20? Maybe I'll worry in October.

[um_stevenel]

If other teams have taken note not to swing and it’s become more obvious as the season progresses, it doesn’t sound like the command has necessarily worsened, just that the walks have (until, as the author noted, he shows he can throw strikes consistently). So I don’t take the struggles as a worry per se. What would be the bigger worry is if he’s seeing the results and not learning that it’s an imperative thing to improve on. In that regard, the sooner he has these struggles, the better for his long term outlook. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Worrying doesn’t occur for a 20 year old.   He’s going to (and needs to) take some lumps before he becomes the best version of himself.  How well he continues to learn and adjust is the important thing here.  

[Old Twins Hat]

Great, another thing to worry about in regards to the Twins. 

He's over the hill.

How about we just give up on this team, this player, and the whole organization?

Don't watch them, post on this site, or even consider baseball as a possible thing.

Less stress that way.

[jkcarew]

If we should worry about Hill, then we should be giving up on Soto. It’s June 11 and we’re sitting at 1 inning pitched…and holding (yet again).
 

I don’t think either is true quite yet, but if we use the term worried, I’m infinitely more so regarding Soto than I am Hill.

[HeresWaldo]

I have a hard time worrying about a guy this young with this much stuff, especially since we know he was pitching through a minor finger injury. This is a good piece, not trying to denigrate it, but let's see what the next 50-100 innings (and for that matter his first 50 IP next year after he's had an off-season to work on stuff) look like before we panic. 

The way I look at it is this: would I be happy if he was a prospect in another system and the Twins traded something meaningful to get him in return? For me the answer is still an easy yes, at least for now.