Should Griffin Jax Get Another Shot in the Twins' Starting Rotation?

[Mark G]

20 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Short answer: No.

Longer answer: No, because the odds of him having sustained success as a starter aren't all that great, and he has found far more success as a reliever, in ways that look repeatable and sustainable that are most likely not true as a starter. the issue of max effort has come up by many here already, but it's a real issue as an actual starter. you have to pace yourself through the game at least somewhat. Do teams have starters worrying less about that now as they pull guys before they go through the order a 3rd time? Sure, but it's unquestionably harder to maintain velocity deeper into games especially through the grind of a full season. It's one thing to gut through it in april/may and another to be able to summon that velocity in late august. Jax has improved his stuff, which is a point in his favor, but how does that changeup look when guys have already seen it? His sweeper is faster and sharper...can he sustain that velocity and spin on it through 5-7 innings? Can he throw it enough as a starter? that fastball got a lot better when it went from 92-93 to 96-98 mph too.

he's a real weapon in the bullpen. He struggled mightily as a starter. Yes, he's almost certainly a better pitcher now than he was then, but part of that is because he's throwing so much harder. It would be a huge gamble to see if he can maintain velocity deep in games and be effective as a starter, because you're really not going to know until you've given him 5-6 starts in MLB. Because he's not going to be throwing that deep in spring training even if they have him prepare to start. So you're either taking a the risk and hoping or taking the word of the player (and players are notorious unreliable in their ability to assess whether they can do something or not) that it'll work.

We need him in the bullpen. he's been great in the bullpen. We probably don't need him as a starter. He was bad as a starter. keep him in the bullpen.

I mean, go ahead and have the conversation with him. But I would explain it to him exactly like that: we need you in the bullpen, where you're great. the team needs you there. I think he'll get it.

Exactly.  If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  

[mluebker]

Spring training is a great place to test out the idea. Meanwhile, it might be good to stop thinking too hard about trading other relievers who have been at least moderately successful.