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Posted

To make the 2025 team better, one of the Twins' starting catching duo is likely to be traded. But which one?

Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Following the collapse of the 2024 Twins, everyone involved--from ownership down--agreed on one thing: the 2025 team will be better. That said, there are two facts that make this endeavor more easily said than done. First, the Twins will face similar payroll constraints to the 2024 season. Second, their in-house players are set to consume virtually all of the budgeted payroll, with no fewer than 13 guys set for raises through arbitration. To square these challenges with Joe Pohlad’s promise of improvement, some tough decisions will need to be made.

One such decision is around the Twins’ catching tandem, as it seems almost certain that one of Ryan Jeffers or Christian Vázquez will be traded to improve the team, through freeing up cash or trading for value. A club paying $36 million to its shortstop, $21 million to its ace starter and $15 million to its center fielder can also pay $15 million for its catchers, but only if they're willing to carry a total payroll in excess of $160 million. Since it looks like the Twins will be at least $25 million shy of that mark, they need to make a move.

The Case for Trading Christian Vázquez
The defense-first Vázquez is entering the final season of his three-year, $30-million free-agent deal. As a backup catcher, he’s been good. Trading him would make sense purely from a cost-cutting angle, as he’s set to be the fourth-highest-paid guy on the team, behind Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton. That’s tough to justify when there are multiple holes on the roster that need filling.

It’s unlikely a team would take his contract on in full, without some other enticement. Baseball Trade Values has him worth -$7.8 million compared to his contract. As a result, moving on would require the Twins to include at least one prospect to even the books. If they can swallow that bitter pill, the newfound flexibility could help the team accomplish any number of free-agent signings. They could add a couple legitimate weapons to the bullpen, sign a real first baseman or DH, or sign a mid-rotation starter with some yellow flags to their name.

Should the Twins trade Vázquez, they would likely need to sign another defensive-minded catcher to a cheap, one-year deal, but there's good depth in that class of backstop on the market this winter.

The Case for Trading Ryan Jeffers
Offense-first Jeffers is hitting arbitration for the second time, and MLB Trade Rumors has him set to earn around $4.7 million. For a typical team with a typical payroll, this would be a drop in the bucket and well worth the expenditure.

For the Twins, having an extra $5 million could translate into a legitimate role player elsewhere on the field--for example, it could be enough to re-sign Carlos Santana. The player they would find instead of Jeffers would almost certainly carry a higher workload than the 218 games and 800 plate appearances Jeffers has amassed over the last two years.

Beyond the payroll re-allocation, Jeffers would carry some real surplus value, too. Baseball Trade Values has him worth $13.1 million beyond his likely arbitration salaries the next two seasons, so he would net legitimate prospects or be a significant piece toward acquiring a contributing major leaguer. He could be bundled with prospects toward a cost-controlled frontline starting pitcher or impact bat. Another benefit to trading him could be the (relative) predictability associated with a less streaky player.

Should the Twins decide to trade Jeffers, they would either need to sign or trade for a bat-first catcher to complement Vázquez, or decide to forego offense from the catcher position and sign a defensively-minded backup catcher on the cheap.

Which option will the Twins take? Which option should they take? Will they focus on cost-cutting, or upside? Prioritize offense, or defense? It likely comes down to the relative offers, and how the front office prioritizes roster construction once the Pohlads issue their payroll edict for the season.


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Posted

The problem with trading either is the FO would need to replace whichever one they traded away.  Say they have to eat $5M of Vazquez's $10M contract to be able to trade him.  Would the FO be able to sign an adequate replacement for less than $5M?  If not, then the trade doesn't make sense.

Same thing with Jeffers.  If they trade his $5M contract away, who replaces him?  What do the Twins do after next season if they trade Jeffers this offseason and Vazquez becomes a free agent?  It doesn't appear the Twins have any catchers developing in the minor leagues.

Unless the Twins can trade the majority of Vazquez's contract away and can get a much cheaper, adequate replacement, then it doesn't make sense to trade either.

Posted

I have no viable answer to this question, but I do wonder what the catcher hierarchy is in the minors.  Is Camargo the only answer to the up next question?  Who else is in the realistic mix for the next two years?  We know that 2025 is the last year for Vasquez regardless of a trade or not.  

If we trade either, we will not have the resources to replace them on a trade or FA market.

Posted

The answer is based on a few factors that the FO should answer.  One, do they expect to extend Jeffers after his 3rd arb year, or let him walk?  Two, how do they feel about organizational depth for next year should the need arise?  If their depth is weak, who can they find in FA? Three, what dot hey value more defense or possible offense, and do they think Jeffers can be consistent on offense?  Finally, what would they get in return for them?  I think both names should be floated out to teams to see what they would give up.  

If no team will take Vasquez without either paying large part of contract, or giving up prospect to dump him, then he gives you little return.  If you add in fact you doubt Jeffers will be extended long term, and your organizational depth is weak, hard to justify giving a guy away.  If you think Jeffers will sign beyond 2026 season, might be worth just dumping Vasquez if cost is low.  However, if Jeffers will walk in two years and he can fetch a better return it would make sense to trade him.

Now, if you want the narrow just 2025 in sight as article seems to take that point of view, you drop Vasquez and hope Jeffers will be more consistent on offense.  Keeping in mind Vaquez has a hell of a run in middle of season hitting too, but rest of year was just terrible. Not sure too many teams will take his money unless you send a better prospect with him. However, I am guessing there is someone you could spend his money on, a pen pitcher or two. 

Posted

I disagree with the premise that it seems almost certain that the Twins will trade one of their catchers. Anything is possible, and this offseason could see a lot of turnover if that's the direction Falvey chooses, but Vazquez isn't the backup catcher because the Twins don't do backup catchers (or backups in general). The most drastic they'll get is 60/40 behind the plate, but they prefer 55/45 or 50/50.

Because of that they need 2 guys they like behind the plate. Trading Vazquez, a prospect, and 5 mil to bring in Vazquez 2.0 for 5 mil means all you did was give away a prospect (they aren't trading a prospect good enough to have a team eat all 10 mil unless Falvey is crazy desperate and Joe should veto that immediately while firing Falvey). Trading away Jeffers for prospects to replace him with Jeffers 2.0 or Vazquez 2.0 for his same salary isn't a move you make when you're feeling the heat. Falvey may not want to blow up the top of his system to save his job this year, but he certainly shouldn't be worried about adding to it when he won't even be here next year if the big club loses again.

I think moving a catcher is actually towards the bottom of the possibility list. Certainly don't see it as "almost certain." Feels more like rearranging deck chairs on the titanic to worry about switching out a catcher for no real 2025 MLB gain.

Posted

Is having Vazquez and Jeffers a luxury the Twins can't afford? If yes, that's the only way I see one traded.

Alternating catchers almost every game sure has worked in keeping them healthy. You would think they would be more fresh and produce more in September because of it. That wasn't the case.

Posted
2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I disagree with the premise that it seems almost certain that the Twins will trade one of their catchers. Anything is possible, and this offseason could see a lot of turnover if that's the direction Falvey chooses, but Vazquez isn't the backup catcher because the Twins don't do backup catchers (or backups in general). The most drastic they'll get is 60/40 behind the plate, but they prefer 55/45 or 50/50.

Because of that they need 2 guys they like behind the plate. Trading Vazquez, a prospect, and 5 mil to bring in Vazquez 2.0 for 5 mil means all you did was give away a prospect (they aren't trading a prospect good enough to have a team eat all 10 mil unless Falvey is crazy desperate and Joe should veto that immediately while firing Falvey). Trading away Jeffers for prospects to replace him with Jeffers 2.0 or Vazquez 2.0 for his same salary isn't a move you make when you're feeling the heat. Falvey may not want to blow up the top of his system to save his job this year, but he certainly shouldn't be worried about adding to it when he won't even be here next year if the big club loses again.

I think moving a catcher is actually towards the bottom of the possibility list. Certainly don't see it as "almost certain." Feels more like rearranging deck chairs on the titanic to worry about switching out a catcher for no real 2025 MLB gain.

Add in too the durability of the pair, knock on wood. 

Posted

They should trade Vazquez because small market teams should always trade old and expensive for younger and cheaper. They won't get anyone to take on all $10M of the contract. My guess is the other team would want the Twins to eat $8M (or take on $8M worth of their bad contracts). For $2M the Twins won't find anyone better than Vazquez on the free agent market. At best this is a sideways move.

Posted

Why did the Twins sign Vazquez in the 1st place? Because Jeffers can't handle primary catching duties. FO's hope after trading away Garver & Rortvedt was that Jeffers could, but he has bombed. Later hoped with the help of Vazquez, Jeffers would grow into it, but he hasn't. After Vazquez leaves, we have nobody to take his place. And I'm afraid Jeffers will flounder again because we have no one in the system that can take up the slack. Going to FA agency again will not be cheap & because we have no one else I'm afraid that the Twins will extend Jeffers with a ridiculous contract because Boras is his agent for an average at best catcher. What should the Twins do?

In the 1st place, they shouldn't have traded Garver & Rortvedt & traded Jeffers instead. Then the contract Vazquez wouldn't have been needed & we would gotten much more for Jeffers in trade to plug more of our holes namely pitching at the time. But that time has passed. We desperately need an above-average catcher for the future. Vazquez is gone after this season & Jeffers has 2 more years. IMO extending Jeffers should be out of the question. Since we signed Vazquez, I've advocated trading Jeffers & pick up 2 very promising young MLB-ready catcher for Vazquez to have 3 years to mentor. 2 years have been wasted but we still have one more year for Vazquez to mentor such a catcher.

I don't see Falvey having vision enough past this offseason so I see the Twins not doing anything & really hurting at catching for many years after Vazquez is gone. Because picking up another decent catcher in FA will not be cheap & I don't see Falvey able to initiate a decent trade for one. 

Posted

I also object to the notion that the Twins must move either one of them. 1] IF you were to move either, with Vazquez on a 1 year deal, why would you EVER trade Jeffers? So you can have ZERO MLB catchers in 2026? 2] IF you paid $4-5M of Vazquez's deal to move him, who replaces him? You'd  better be really like Camargo and believe in him, otherwise, you're back to FA to sign a guy like Vazquez for the $ you just saved, when you already traded the kind of player you'd end up signing to take his place.

Also, where does this idea of a $160M payroll come from that is forcing you to move either catcher? Unless I am grossly misremembering, minus FA already out the door, bringing the rest of th3 existing roster back and paying out the expected arbitration numbers, the Twins would be sitting at almost exactly $135M. 

If anyone is moved, it's Paddack, who's $7M would be more palatable to other teams, and is a possibly solid rotation arm with experience and upside. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Why did the Twins sign Vazquez in the 1st place? Because Jeffers can't handle primary catching duties. FO's hope after trading away Garver & Rortvedt was that Jeffers could, but he has bombed. Later hoped with the help of Vazquez, Jeffers would grow into it, but he hasn't. After Vazquez leaves, we have nobody to take his place. And I'm afraid Jeffers will flounder again because we have no one in the system that can take up the slack. Going to FA agency again will not be cheap & because we have no one else I'm afraid that the Twins will extend Jeffers with a ridiculous contract because Boras is his agent for an average at best catcher. What should the Twins do?

In the 1st place, they shouldn't have traded Garver & Rortvedt & traded Jeffers instead. Then the contract Vazquez wouldn't have been needed & we would gotten much more for Jeffers in trade to plug more of our holes namely pitching at the time. But that time has passed. We desperately need an above-average catcher for the future. Vazquez is gone after this season & Jeffers has 2 more years. IMO extending Jeffers should be out of the question. Since we signed Vazquez, I've advocated trading Jeffers & pick up 2 very promising young MLB-ready catcher for Vazquez to have 3 years to mentor. 2 years have been wasted but we still have one more year for Vazquez to mentor such a catcher.

I don't see Falvey having vision enough past this offseason so I see the Twins not doing anything & really hurting at catching for many years after Vazquez is gone. Because picking up another decent catcher in FA will not be cheap & I don't see Falvey able to initiate a decent trade for one. 

I've never understood this "young guy to mentor" idea as if Vazquez is some secret catcher whisperer that's going to make a young catcher better than he is. He's mentored Jeffers for 2 years and you're ready to move on from him. What evidence do we have that Vazquez would've done some magical work with a young guy not named Jeffers? Because, you know, Jeffers was a young guy for Vazquez to mentor for 3 years.

And shouldn't have traded Garver and Rortvedt so they'd have them instead of Jeffers and Vazquez? You think the catching situation is bad now? Imagine having Garver (who has caught a whopping 67 games since he left) and Rortvedt who has played in 144 total MLB games in the last 3 years. That was the way to go? A DH and a AAAA catcher? Come on. Garver has been hurt so much while not even catching that you wouldn't have even had him and Rortvedt is so bad Tampa is openly talking about needing to add catching this offseason after the Yankees traded him because he wasn't good enough for their team. Your plan would've had the Twins out of viable catchers 3 seasons ago instead of 2026.

Posted
59 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Whether that's Carmargo or somebody they get back for Jeffers it's time to move on.

Carmargo hit .212. in AAA. The games I went to, he seemed to have a weight issue.

Posted

Falvey has drafted exactly 1 legit high round catcher during his tenure, and Ryan Jeffers is just about out of service time now. Khadim Diaw was drafted this season, but he's really an OF masquerading as a catcher 50% of the time. He threw out a miserable 11.5% of base runners looking to advance on him, even in A-ball where good catchers can nab base runners 40 or 50% of the time, and his bat doesn't profile well without adding a lot of power.

With zero semi-reliable high minors catching depth, the Twins aren't exactly in a good spot. This has been talked about multiple times this year, and in an article about the future roster already. The Twins aren't going to have any free agency options cheaper than the net cost of Vazquez.

I suppose the Twins could eat some of Vazquez's contract or wrap a prospect into a trade to get him off the books with the whole contract being shed. That'd put Jair Camargo (who put up a wRC+ 76 season at AAA), as depth and Chris Williams behind him. Not sure if the Twins will move to protect Williams from the rule 5 draft this year since they exposed him last year. Back to back above average years at the plate in AAA along with... passable controlling of the run game make Williams a potential grab for a team somewhere in MLB, but he'll be coming into next year at age 28, but if he's already striking out at an over 30% clip with all of his experience and polish at AAA, you'd have to believe he'll be over 40% at MLB.

Jeffers is the only catcher in the high minors or on the roster who would be likely to generate more than 1.0 WAR at the MLB level. There's just no good way to trade anybody.

Posted
1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Trade Jeffers and bring in a young guy to be mentored by Vasquez.  Whether that's Carmargo or somebody they get back for Jeffers it's time to move on.  Maybe a team who is on the edge of competing for a title would savor Jeffers assuming he can hit like he has shown on occasions more consistently.

The Twins have juuuuuuuuust enough talent on the roster right now to maybe compete for a playoff spot next year if everything goes well. There is definitely no room for losing 2 WAR to save a pittance like $4MM. Your approach would also signal a full rebuild, IMHO.

Side note... what is Vazquez going to mentor? How to be old? How to land a contract you don't deserve? How to be physically "short" so they have an advantage in strike zone because of umpire viewing perspectives? 

Posted
24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I've never understood this "young guy to mentor" idea as if Vazquez is some secret catcher whisperer that's going to make a young catcher better than he is. He's mentored Jeffers for 2 years and you're ready to move on from him. What evidence do we have that Vazquez would've done some magical work with a young guy not named Jeffers? Because, you know, Jeffers was a young guy for Vazquez to mentor for 3 years.

And shouldn't have traded Garver and Rortvedt so they'd have them instead of Jeffers and Vazquez? You think the catching situation is bad now? Imagine having Garver (who has caught a whopping 67 games since he left) and Rortvedt who has played in 144 total MLB games in the last 3 years. That was the way to go? A DH and a AAAA catcher? Come on. Garver has been hurt so much while not even catching that you wouldn't have even had him and Rortvedt is so bad Tampa is openly talking about needing to add catching this offseason after the Yankees traded him because he wasn't good enough for their team. Your plan would've had the Twins out of viable catchers 3 seasons ago instead of 2026.

I chuckle when I see Garver and Rortvedt as who should have stayed to man the position.  Twins who wouldn't pay Garver $MM's in his early 30's to stay healthy and play the position and was actually right in that trade, who doesn't play the position hardly ever wasn't the guy.  

Then there is Rortvedt who couldn't get on the field for the Yankees and then put up these awesome numbers last year with Rays

WAR 0.9 hitting .228 AVG .303 SLG .621 OPS w/ 3HR's and 31 RBI's while committing 9 errors catching and throwing out 16% baserunners.  

Jeffers with WAR 2.1 hitting .226 AVG .432 SLG. .732 OPS w/ 21 HR's and 64 RBI's while committing 6 errors and throwing out 17% baserunners.  

Rort and Jeffers don't light it up on defensive side of things compared to top end of league.  I'll take Jeffers/Vazquez any day of the week as you know what you will get.  Trading either one is the least of my concerns for building a better team when owners won't be spending to do it anyway.

No depth in minors knocking on door. Carmago with a couple drinks of coffee in bigs this year was there as a need not a playing necessity.

Posted
16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

With zero semi-reliable high minors catching depth, the Twins aren't exactly in a good spot. 

Ricardo Olivar is probably the top catching prospect. He has questions about his glove and has only spent 19 games in AA.

Posted

Neither..To answer the topic question. Yeah, yeah, I know his offense has been terrible. Paying half his salary to move him for Jair Camargo likely similar offense and worse defense makes little to no sense. Jeffers? Now? NO. So, it's a loose loose situation. Ride it out..Hopefully Ovilars is ready late 2025 or opening day 2026.

I just don't see this burn it to the stud's mentality from Twins fans. We've had terrible luck with health and growth wise in 2024. Stay the course. Has everyone forgotten 2022?

Posted

What would it take to pry away Harry Ford and/or Dalton Rushing to use along with Vazquez?

The options are not very good as one looks across professional baseball for catchers and the Twins have had some semblance of reasonable luck with the Vazquez/Jeffers tandem. Any move at catcher would be a gamble of sorts but hopefully there are conversations taking place with every team seeking out ways to improve the roster talent.

Posted

Just to clarify myself to some in my statement about keeping Garver & Rortvedt & trading Jeffers.

1.) I've always stressed the necessity of picking up a promising young MLB-ready catching prospect, With the understanding of phasing out Garver as the #1 catcher to Rortvedt while phasing in the new prospect. So it's not comparing present Vazquez/ Jeffers to Garver/ Rortvedt but more like comparing in the past Garver/ Rortvedt/ promising prospect to Jeffers/ Sanchez; present Rortvedt/ Promising prospect/ maybe Garver doing some subbing in a pinch to Vazquez/ Jeffers; future promising prospect/ Rortvedt to Jeffers/ Carmargo.

2.) Under this premise there was no need to pay for an expensive FA (Vazquez) or another expensive FA after he leaves. Jeffers had more trade value than Garver & Rortvedt together, which would give us better options.

I never liked how NYY handled Rortvedt yet he was Gerrit Cole's private catcher. While with TB he has hit much better. TB looking for a 2nd catcher isn't slam on Rortvedt but it's how teams manage these days. 

This ordeal has passed & nothing we can do about it but hopefully learn from our mistakes. And I am very concerned about how little attention is given to drafting & developing our young catchers, Which is the best & cheapest way to produce our catchers.

 

Posted
4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ricardo Olivar is probably the top catching prospect. He has questions about his glove and has only spent 19 games in AA.

I mean, it's natural to expect since Falvey's last true catcher draft pick above round 8 was in 2018.

Rounds 1-10, catcher selections by Falvey
2017 - None
2018 - Ryan Jeffers 2nd round
2018 - Charles Mack 6th round
2018 - Chris Williams 8th round (AAA)
2019 - None
2020 - None
2021 - Noah Cardenas 8th round (AA)
2021 - Patrick Winkel 9th round (AAA)
2022 - None
2023 - None
2024 - Khadim Diaw (A) 3rd round (he's honestly really an OF)

Can't imagine why we're short on catching depth...

Posted
2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Just to clarify myself to some in my statement about keeping Garver & Rortvedt & trading Jeffers.

1.) I've always stressed the necessity of picking up a promising young MLB-ready catching prospect, With the understanding of phasing out Garver as the #1 catcher to Rortvedt while phasing in the new prospect. So it's not comparing present Vazquez/ Jeffers to Garver/ Rortvedt but more like comparing in the past Garver/ Rortvedt/ promising prospect to Jeffers/ Sanchez; present Rortvedt/ Promising prospect/ maybe Garver doing some subbing in a pinch to Vazquez/ Jeffers; future promising prospect/ Rortvedt to Jeffers/ Carmargo.

2.) Under this premise there was no need to pay for an expensive FA (Vazquez) or another expensive FA after he leaves. Jeffers had more trade value than Garver & Rortvedt together, which would give us better options.

I never liked how NYY handled Rortvedt yet he was Gerrit Cole's private catcher. While with TB he has hit much better. TB looking for a 2nd catcher isn't slam on Rortvedt but it's how teams manage these days. 

This ordeal has passed & nothing we can do about it but hopefully learn from our mistakes. And I am very concerned about how little attention is given to drafting & developing our young catchers, Which is the best & cheapest way to produce our catchers.

 

Garver played 54 games in 2022, caught 14. Ben Rortvedt didn't step foot on a major league field in 2022. A promising prospect at catcher is certainly needed, but your past Garver/Rortvedt combo left you 148 games short in 2022. In 2023 Garver played 87 games and caught 27. Rortvedt played 32. They left you 103 games short in 2023. 

Gerrit Cole made 33 starts in 2023. Ben Rortvedt caught him 13 times (of his 32 total games played for NY). Luis Trevino caught him 18 times. Not much of a "private catcher."

The Twins absolutely lack catching depth in their system, and it's a self-made problem because they just don't put any resources into acquiring catchers. But trading Garver and Rortvedt was not a bad decision. And most veteran defense first catchers are not expensive. It's why the Vazquez deal was questioned so much when they signed him. Most go for about 4-6 million for a year or 2. 

Posted

The only reason you trade Jeffers is if you really want to start over completely in 2026 with no returning catchers.  That seems short-sighted at best.  If you could trade Vasquez for something, great; but I don't think that is likely without eating a lot of his salary -- which defeats the point of trying to trade him in the first place.  I also don't think Caimargo is the catcher of the future. 

Why are we rehashing Garver and Rortvedt?  Neither are doing well these days, so moving on from them was an excellent move. 

Posted

Who do you have in mind as a replacement. There are no MLB ready replacements at catcher in the Twins system. It could be much worse, see John Ryan Murphy for an example. 

Posted

They will go with the same tandem next year and Olivar will replace Vasquez in 2026.  It's also possible they spend part of the Vasquez salary on a free agent in 2026.  They have 25.5M coming off the books in 2026.  Vasquez / Paddack / $5M less to Correa and Dobnak.  They will need a good portion of that for arbitration increases but should be able to swing a free agent catcher if Olivar or others don't pan out.

Posted

Jair Camargo was up for 21 games. He was given 7 plate appearances.

Now I understand that Christian Vazquez is the greatest defensive catcher on the planet. However it should be noted that his offensive production was to the tune of .575 OPS over 315 Plate Appearances. 

It cost us 30 million to bring that offensive production to town.

Yet... Camargo got 7 trips to the plate. He wasn't allowed to try and OPS. 576. Spent 21 games on the MLB roster. 

Why do I bring this up. 

We have done a horrible job developing Catching when Vazquez has become irreplicable. 

Acquiring Catching is expensive. 30 million will get you 315 plate appearances. 

 

 

 

Posted
11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I mean, it's natural to expect since Falvey's last true catcher draft pick above round 8 was in 2018.

Rounds 1-10, catcher selections by Falvey
2017 - None
2018 - Ryan Jeffers 2nd round
2018 - Charles Mack 6th round
2018 - Chris Williams 8th round (AAA)
2019 - None
2020 - None
2021 - Noah Cardenas 8th round (AA)
2021 - Patrick Winkel 9th round (AAA)
2022 - None
2023 - None
2024 - Khadim Diaw (A) 3rd round (he's honestly really an OF)

Can't imagine why we're short on catching depth...

This is a good point. I can only surmise it’s one of Falveys rigid philosophies that catching isn’t worth high draft capital. 

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