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Following the collapse of the 2024 Twins, everyone involved--from ownership down--agreed on one thing: the 2025 team will be better. That said, there are two facts that make this endeavor more easily said than done. First, the Twins will face similar payroll constraints to the 2024 season. Second, their in-house players are set to consume virtually all of the budgeted payroll, with no fewer than 13 guys set for raises through arbitration. To square these challenges with Joe Pohlad’s promise of improvement, some tough decisions will need to be made.
One such decision is around the Twins’ catching tandem, as it seems almost certain that one of Ryan Jeffers or Christian Vázquez will be traded to improve the team, through freeing up cash or trading for value. A club paying $36 million to its shortstop, $21 million to its ace starter and $15 million to its center fielder can also pay $15 million for its catchers, but only if they're willing to carry a total payroll in excess of $160 million. Since it looks like the Twins will be at least $25 million shy of that mark, they need to make a move.
The Case for Trading Christian Vázquez
The defense-first Vázquez is entering the final season of his three-year, $30-million free-agent deal. As a backup catcher, he’s been good. Trading him would make sense purely from a cost-cutting angle, as he’s set to be the fourth-highest-paid guy on the team, behind Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton. That’s tough to justify when there are multiple holes on the roster that need filling.
It’s unlikely a team would take his contract on in full, without some other enticement. Baseball Trade Values has him worth -$7.8 million compared to his contract. As a result, moving on would require the Twins to include at least one prospect to even the books. If they can swallow that bitter pill, the newfound flexibility could help the team accomplish any number of free-agent signings. They could add a couple legitimate weapons to the bullpen, sign a real first baseman or DH, or sign a mid-rotation starter with some yellow flags to their name.
Should the Twins trade Vázquez, they would likely need to sign another defensive-minded catcher to a cheap, one-year deal, but there's good depth in that class of backstop on the market this winter.
The Case for Trading Ryan Jeffers
Offense-first Jeffers is hitting arbitration for the second time, and MLB Trade Rumors has him set to earn around $4.7 million. For a typical team with a typical payroll, this would be a drop in the bucket and well worth the expenditure.
For the Twins, having an extra $5 million could translate into a legitimate role player elsewhere on the field--for example, it could be enough to re-sign Carlos Santana. The player they would find instead of Jeffers would almost certainly carry a higher workload than the 218 games and 800 plate appearances Jeffers has amassed over the last two years.
Beyond the payroll re-allocation, Jeffers would carry some real surplus value, too. Baseball Trade Values has him worth $13.1 million beyond his likely arbitration salaries the next two seasons, so he would net legitimate prospects or be a significant piece toward acquiring a contributing major leaguer. He could be bundled with prospects toward a cost-controlled frontline starting pitcher or impact bat. Another benefit to trading him could be the (relative) predictability associated with a less streaky player.
Should the Twins decide to trade Jeffers, they would either need to sign or trade for a bat-first catcher to complement Vázquez, or decide to forego offense from the catcher position and sign a defensively-minded backup catcher on the cheap.
Which option will the Twins take? Which option should they take? Will they focus on cost-cutting, or upside? Prioritize offense, or defense? It likely comes down to the relative offers, and how the front office prioritizes roster construction once the Pohlads issue their payroll edict for the season.
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