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Posted
7 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Our problem is both philosophical and financial. We signed two very good players to to two very large contracts and then reduce the overall budget. You can't have at all. I don't blame the players for taking those big contracts, but what is our overall philosophy? What guides the decisions for this team?

3 players. 4 if you count Vasquez account for roughly 60% of a 130 million dollar payroll.  As things stand now. Not much wiggle room.

Posted

It seems everything changed with the TV fiasco. The Twins added López and extended him to add to the expensive long-term contracts for Buxton and Correa. They had Gray on on 9-digit contract, had Polanco and Kepler on fairly expensive (but competitive deals) and added Vázquez and then came the 2023 trading deadline and 2023 off season.

The Twins have Ober and Ryan at bargain prices compared to their performance and have a ton of guys in the arbitration cycle. All of those guys will make substantially more if they stay healthy and reasonably productive. They certainly should try to be competitive next year since they figure to have an outstanding top three starters. If they start slowly, we may see the move towards Emma and Jenkins, along with other young players. It's a waste of talent from their best position players. 

Posted
1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

I honestly have no idea how this team gets better next year and they weren't good this year.

Usually...that's exactly when you should be talking "rebuild".

This team was 82-80 and just missed the playoffs despite losing Correa and Ryan for months. I know they were bad in September but they were also really good in June.

Posted

We first need to figure out why we went 12-27 down the stretch and not 27-12. 
1. We didn’t have enough MLB non slumpy hitters. Our RISP was horrible most games.

2. We didn’t have enough pitching. 3 rookies in the rotation and gramma’s quilting club sewed together a bullpen of alley cats that couldn’t find a win. 
 

Clubs tear down to build up a farm system, we already have a top5 farm. And it is not just top heavy, its 4 layers deep. 

‘25 is going to be a deep dive into youngsters regardless of FA signings or trades,  Ownership and the FO will be betting on themselves and the farm system.  No tear down, No rebuild, full speed ahead with $132M in salary and 3-6 more rookies debuting. Catching lightning in a bottle or bust in ‘25. 
 

Posted
16 hours ago, GNess said:

 

A rebuild would not be wise.

The Twins have assets which can most certainly result in a postseason berth in 2025 but each comes with caveats and/or question marks.

HIGH END CORE: Correa, Buxton, Lopez, Jax, Duran. ? Can Correa and Buxton stay on the field enough?

YOUNG HITTING TALENT: Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Miranda but all of these 5 have been really up and down. Can they be more up than down? (Might include Julien and Kirilloff here too)

PITCHING PIPELINE: Cleveland has shown that it is possible to keep churning out fairly reliable SP. Twins aren't Cleveland in terms of development, but they do have a nice number of young arms / prospects ready and close to ready: SWR, Festa, Matthews, Raya, Morris etc.

Having said all of that it sure would be nice if they could go out and spend on a Big-Time Bat or a Front-Line Starter. (That doesn't seem likely given self-imposed restrictions.)

 

At this point it's very disappointing that guys like Lewis and Lee aren't considered "High End Core" players ... or is there still hope? 

Posted
16 hours ago, ashbury said:

 the direction he advocates here happens to be mine too.  Don't waste scarce dollars on veterans whose ceiling is "average" when your own talent evaluation says that rookies you use instead of them may stumble at first but then rise to at least that same level of achievement anyway. 

The talent evaluation had better be right, of course, or else the season could be a disaster.  But the talent evaluation has to be right concerning using veterans instead, and we ended up with Manuel Margot who was NOT the backup in CF that was implied when he was traded for, and DeSclafani who was NOT in fact viable as even some kind of mythical #5 in a rotation, and we had a rotating cast of relief arms who did NOT add up to a shutdown bullpen - and we ended up with a team not built for a long run of success.

 

I'm not paying for Star Tribune access so I can't read the article. But I can see the headline and read Nick's synopsis of it and Nick's additional thoughts on it. I'm really not sure why lofty language like "Rebuild" is being used at all. 

1. If I'm allowed one request. I'd probably ask for what you are saying. Please.... please... please... no innings eaters, please no specialists who possess one skill. Take the money you are spending on multiple players of this ilk, combine that money and get one player above this level of player. If this is the point of Patrick Ruesse... sign me up. 

Nick is stating that the Twins can't rebuild. I agree it's a bad idea but can't... is false... they could... they could activate a massive rebuild very quickly.

Trade Lopez, Ober and Ryan. Trade Duran and Jax. The prospect haul would be substantial. We would be in full rebuild mode with Buxton and Correa hanging around. 

I wouldn't do that. My request is yours... not spending money on innings eaters or specialists is all I ask. 

 

Posted

Their "champion vision" is flawed. They'll have $73M invested in 3 players that are suppose to carry this team and 2 of the 3 can't stay on the field. Both have had injury issues their entire careers and can't and never should have been relied on to build around. Maybe Falvey hasn't spent on a "Nolasco" but he has given money to Mahle, DeSlafani, Paddack, and 1 year wonders that aren't any better than a Nolasco. It's going to take the young players in this organization, and a different Manager that shows some confidence in them, to take this team to the next level if they are ever going to be a serious contender, because the veterans Falvey brings in aren't good enough to do it.

I just read an article written by Jim Souhan on a different site and he says the Twins need to bring in a superstar to help this team. Isn't that what Correa is, and was suppose to do? 

Posted
3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We first need to figure out why we went 12-27 down the stretch and not 27-12.
 

It really isn't that hard to figure out, for one they didn't play the white sox, if you get rid of them they were a 70 - 79 team.

Second they had two reliable starting pitchers and even the best pitchers can't be perfect every time.

Third they had one reliable relief pitchers and maybe two others that you kind of felt comfortable with.

Finally,  they have a bunch of mid 20 something players that haven't established if they are every day major league players.

How much of this chances next year is the real question.

Posted

I've got an idea. How about the players we have stay healthy the whole season? I've never seen this team have as many injuries as they've had over the last six years.

Posted

It's not really a "rebuild" if the foundation of your team is essentially already built on young talent ascending to the big league team.  But I think much of the frustration of Twins fans is in the apparent lack of progress of many of these young players and the continued injury problems YOUNG guys seem to have.  Shouldn't those "young bodies" be more limber and less prone to muscle pulls etc...

Is it a flaw in their training regimen ???

I will also beg to differ with Nick on the prospect of trading either Correa or Buxton.  Given a trade to a contending club, I don't think either player would waive their no trade clause.  I don't believe Correa would be traded, but I DO believe the chance exists for Buxton.  

Byron finally played 100 games for the 2nd time in his career and while the batting average was a pleasant surprise and the defense was excellent the power was a little light and face it, his speed in terms of stolen bases has always been a non issue with the Twins given Rocco's aversion to stealing bases.  His salary is a mere $15 million dollars per year.  WE make a big deal about that, but there are a LOT of teams who look at that as a drop in the bucket.  

It may have been back in August that I suggested a possible trade of Buxton to the L.A. Dodgers.  I won't PAY for the Baseball Trade Values tool but I had fun using it while it was free.  As a result, I don't know what "surplus value" various players have but I have to believe that Buxton built back a good deal of his negative value.  The Dodgers need a legit CF.  $15 million a year is nothing to them.  If they would part with one of their young SP's and one of their highly rated minor league catchers who is ready for the big leagues but blocked by Will Smith, I'd make that trade.  

I won't name specific players because I have no idea what would be reasonable based on the BBTV's system.  But I remember how the Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez trade was graded and it strongly favored the Twins. 

I look at Ryan Jeffers 2023 season and see it as an outlier.  If I made this Buxton trade to the Dodgers and got a promising young catcher to pair with Vasquez and a young SP, my next move  would be to turn around and make a deal with Miami centered around Jeffers for a SP like Luzardo or Alcantara.  The deal could be Jeffers and Julien for one of those two SP's and something else.   

Good pitching can keep teams in games night in and night out.  If you PITCH, you will always COMPETE.  We have enough power to score runs and with a new hitting coach coming in (Nelson Cruz? Justin Morneau?) we may finally become better than an atrocious "situational hitting" team.  We have young OF's on the way with Emm-Rod and Walker Jenkins.  We have Wallner and Larnach ascending.  I would dump Buxton's contract with an eye on acquiring more pitching and adding one more reliable bullpen arm to a bullpen with Jax, Duran and Sands and hopefully Alcala and Varland.  

It's not a "rebuild."  It's a "re-tooling."  

 

 

Posted

Ugggggg,

Ooops, I enjoy the article Nick!

There is a solid core of players with more coming.  We have not been able to say that very often as Twins fans.  

The only type of pitcher I would go after is one that slots in at SP2 but has potential to be SP1 or maybe the Ace.

That is NOT an easy find and if you find one, even harder to acquire from another team.

Our staff, somewhere in the Twins Org, should be able to coach up and teach defense.  So someone who under performs in that side of the ball should be coachable to be at LEAST league average.

I do understand the younger players may need more time.  

But there is the Sano Bar, if they are not improving then we need to find alternatives either inhouse or outhouse, (yes I wrote this whole article just to say outhouse 😁).

SWR - had a very good full year
Ryan - I think took the next step in his development
Ober - also took a step, but need to figure out why when he is off he is OFF THE CHARTS off.
Festa: impressed by what he did and how he responded to adversity
Matthews: Holy crap guys, he went from High A to the Majors in one year?  I think he has potential too.

IF: We do need to figure out our 2B and 3B and how fits which spot best.  Then get them reps, coaching and more reps.

OF: We are sitting good, not great, at the OF slots too.  Wallner responded well to his ABYSMAL start and being demoted.  Larnach actually seem to figure somethings out.

Here is where I think we have the dog from Hades 2.0, (this one has four heads), Buxton, C4, Lopez and Duran.  Their performances need to be more even. 

Hitting-wise I think C4 and Bux-Truck did better than expected.  But these injuries...more regular time off?

Lopez - why does it take so long to get on track?
Duran - still young and relief pitchers are very volatile, but identify why the drop in performance.

I had advocated for retaining Sonny.    He was Sonny this year, started a bit rough, ERA 3.84, WHIP: 1.09, 200+Ks more the 9Ks/9Innings.

Would he have made the difference?  Perhaps if he started in place of some of one of our 3-4 rookie pitchers maybe that saves the couple games that could have gotten us to the playoffs.

Long winded, I got to work in the word Outhouse, but the Bottom Line because Stone Cold says so is:

You cannot as either businessman or baseball fan, stay stagnant or cut the payroll.

It needs to go back to the 2023 PLUS the baseball inflation amount.

Invest in the product
ROI will be a better TV deal.

Cheapen the product
ROI will be a terrible TV deal.

Posted
5 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

At this point it's very disappointing that guys like Lewis and Lee aren't considered "High End Core" players ... or is there still hope? 

At this point for Lee? Who has been in professional baseball for three years? Who has half a year of major league experience?

Posted
23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think the Twins are in a position they should "rebuild" right now, but they're not far off from it. I don't expect the team will be competitive next year without a very creative offseason or a highly increased payroll.

Worst case scenario is KC goes to the World Series. Their owner is already lobbying for a new stadium, and he has proven to be unlike the Pohlad's so he's willing to open the wallet wide in a window. It wouldn't surprise me to see KC push to $150MM.

Detroit is large market and I expect their payroll to expand into that 160-180MM range next year.

Cleveland seems to just be competitive regardless.

The AL Central is shaping up to be a very tough division next year. The Twins will have their work cut out for them to make the playoffs. They need guys to stay healthy. An season ending injury to a high performer would be potentially catastrophic.

 

This.  I think the Twins are in a bit of a conundrum.  One the one hand they seem to have quite a few pieces in places for a strong rotation and the lineup, but the health issues are just plaguing them.  The reduction in payroll is not helping at all either.  If Buxton, Correa, and Lewis can't string together healthy seasons in unison, at some point the Twins have to move on, but the contracts unfortunately are albatrosses for both Buxton and Correa in that scenario.   

Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

At this point for Lee? Who has been in professional baseball for three years? Who has half a year of major league experience?

Lee has been asked to play three positions while adjusting two swings to major league pitching. It is unrealistic to think that he will find success after a few games.

Posted
15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

This team was 82-80 and just missed the playoffs despite losing Correa and Ryan for months. I know they were bad in September but they were also really good in June.

I'm not disagreeing with that.  Or championing a rebuild even.  I'm just pointing out how difficult this situation likely is.

At the end of the day their depth and injury issues (which don't appear to be changing) got them from one of hte best teams in baseball to basically a .500 team in a month.  If you don't have money to address those issues, then wouldn't the prudent thing to do be a rebuild?

I guess I'm secretly hoping we'll have more flexibility than we think.  Otherwise my pessimism is going to be hard to shake.

Posted
On 10/6/2024 at 1:03 PM, mikelink45 said:

Our problem is both philosophical and financial. We signed two very good players to to two very large contracts and then reduce the overall budget. You can't have at all. I don't blame the players for taking those big contracts, but what is our overall philosophy? What guides the decisions for this team?

If you’re talking about Buxton as a very large contract then we’re not on the same page. The only player with a very large contract is Correa. Buxton and Pablo are signed to very team friendly contracts and Correa played like a top 5 MVP for 4 months. Those 3 guys aren’t the problem. You say you’re not blaming them but you are. The blame goes to pretty much everyone else but these guys. Stop beating that horse. He’s dead.

Posted

They are not “rebuilding “ but some of the principles are the same. They will be banking on a group of youngish players to come through. I feel comfortable with the rotation. I would trade or sign a lefty reliever that doesn’t have massive splits. I would sign or trade for a righty bat that doesn’t have massive splits, preferably an outfielder. All moves I would make are predicated on two basics: the player has to be an above average fielder without massive splits. I’m done playing the platoon game to the extent we have been. 

Posted
19 hours ago, stringer bell said:

It seems everything changed with the TV fiasco. The Twins added López and extended him to add to the expensive long-term contracts for Buxton and Correa. They had Gray on on 9-digit contract, had Polanco and Kepler on fairly expensive (but competitive deals) and added Vázquez and then came the 2023 trading deadline and 2023 off season.

The Twins have Ober and Ryan at bargain prices compared to their performance and have a ton of guys in the arbitration cycle. All of those guys will make substantially more if they stay healthy and reasonably productive. They certainly should try to be competitive next year since they figure to have an outstanding top three starters. If they start slowly, we may see the move towards Emma and Jenkins, along with other young players. It's a waste of talent from their best position players. 

I’m hoping Jenkins forces his way and he’s not needed as a replacement. I believe Emma is gonna be up the first or second injury if he isn’t injured himself. I don’t think Jenkins comes up until at least August unless he’s absolutely tearing up the minors. If those 2 are doing what they do well Wallner and Larnach better hit all season or they’ll get passed up next. 

Posted
54 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

I’m hoping Jenkins forces his way and he’s not needed as a replacement. I believe Emma is gonna be up the first or second injury if he isn’t injured himself. I don’t think Jenkins comes up until at least August unless he’s absolutely tearing up the minors. If those 2 are doing what they do well Wallner and Larnach better hit all season or they’ll get passed up next. 

Players don't force they way up in MN., They only come up if there is an injury or terrible performance (and even then, it doesn't always happen). I can see Jenkins staying down all year, so they can start him in 2025 and hope for rookie of the year.

Posted

Did anyone actually read the article. Reusse didn't advocate a rebuild. He just said play the youngsters instead of singing some mediocre veterans. Right now the Twins' plan seems to be; hope that Buxton, Correa and Lewis can play 120-130 games effectively, that the youngsters (Lewis, Wallner, Miranda, Ober, Ryan, Lee, Julian, etc., can improve, that the bullpen will remain healthy, and that some minor leagers (Festa, Matthews, Rodriguez, etc., can provide quality depth. The beauty of this plan for the Pohlads is that they don't have to spend any more money and that when the inevitable injuries happen, they can say "Gosh, gee, injuries killed us." 

Posted
16 minutes ago, Morland said:

Did anyone actually read the article. Reusse didn't advocate a rebuild. He just said play the youngsters instead of singing some mediocre veterans. Right now the Twins' plan seems to be; hope that Buxton, Correa and Lewis can play 120-130 games effectively, that the youngsters (Lewis, Wallner, Miranda, Ober, Ryan, Lee, Julian, etc., can improve, that the bullpen will remain healthy, and that some minor leagers (Festa, Matthews, Rodriguez, etc., can provide quality depth. The beauty of this plan for the Pohlads is that they don't have to spend any more money and that when the inevitable injuries happen, they can say "Gosh, gee, injuries killed us." 

If that is what Reusse is saying... Yeah... I agree. 

If they want to bring in players... Go bigger or go home.

Margot Types... Not necessary. 

Posted

Didn't read a word of this article or any of the replies.......just wanted to comment about the Tiger's win just now.

A ball club with a lot of heart.

So much different then watching the hapless, flailing Twins. 

Just really refreshing watching a hungry, motivated group of players not intimated by whomever they are playing that day.

Royce got worn out and tired by playing baseball. What a difficult and taxing job.

Really lost a lot of respect for this team over the season.

Posted

If the Twins can’t add a solid starting pitcher for next year they may as well be rebuilding.

How can they add that starting pitcher?

Add 15-18 million to the budget and identify the right veteran free agent pitcher.

Last December the Royals gave Lugo three years and 45 million and Wacha was two years and 32 million. They did their work and identified two starters that propelled the Royals to the playoffs. these two pitchers likely were viewed by some as innings eaters not of playoff starter caliber. The Royals identified them and signed them early in the free agency window.

Make a Pablo Lopez type trade.

Do the Twins have an established Luis Arraez type player to trade? Budget was not a factor in this decision as the salaries were close for both of these arbitration eligible players.  Willi Castro is not going to get it done on his own although the his salary will be similar to Arraez. It could be Castro plus significant prospect where Castro’s addition makes the budget work. Duran might be a better fit but his salary savings will make it hard to find a budget match in return. 

Make a Sonny Gray type trade

His salary was a bargain at 12 million but the Twins would still need to be willing to add to the budget as well as part with a very good prospect or two.

Make a Jake Odorizzi type trade

Similar to Lopez in that they both were in arbitration and due a Willi Castro level salary. It is different than Lopez in that Odorizzi did not have the same perceived excess value so a less significant prospect would be sent. In order to make the budget work they would need to trade Willi Castro in a different deal for a prospect.

Make a Corbin Burnes type trade

The acquisition cost of trading for a rental is so much lower than a player with 2 or 3 years of control because the excess value is that much lower. They could seek a pitcher with 1 year before free agency but the only comp I see is Framber Valdez. The Astros have two large arb 3 awards coming this winter. Would they move him?

Add to the budget or move a significant player?

They really don’t have a player with both a significant enough salary as well as excess value beyond that salary to trade. The closest is Willi Castro.

I think the only answer is to add to the budget. If they aren’t willing to add to the budget then it is a rebuild whether they call it one or not.

 

Posted
2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Players don't force they way up in MN., They only come up if there is an injury or terrible performance (and even then, it doesn't always happen). I can see Jenkins staying down all year, so they can start him in 2025 and hope for rookie of the year.

Exactly, if Jenkins or Emma are setting the minors on fire Larnach and Wallner better be holding their own. This season is a big one for Falvey and baldelli so hopefully there’s no Joey Gallo’s come June and July.

Posted
On 10/6/2024 at 1:19 PM, bean5302 said:

I don't think the Twins are in a position they should "rebuild" right now, but they're not far off from it. I don't expect the team will be competitive next year without a very creative offseason or a highly increased payroll.

Worst case scenario is KC goes to the World Series. Their owner is already lobbying for a new stadium, and he has proven to be unlike the Pohlad's so he's willing to open the wallet wide in a window. It wouldn't surprise me to see KC push to $150MM.

Detroit is large market and I expect their payroll to expand into that 160-180MM range next year.

Cleveland seems to just be competitive regardless.

The AL Central is shaping up to be a very tough division next year. The Twins will have their work cut out for them to make the playoffs. They need guys to stay healthy. A season ending injury to a high performer would be potentially catastrophic.

 

Detroit’s playoff roster salary total is around $19M. Baez - Maeda - ……Skubal …..along with a couple other arbitration guys will take the ‘25 payroll (as it currently stands) to around $80M……….ownership in Detroit isn’t going to add $80-$100M/yr spending. Doesn’t mean they won’t be pretty good.

KC spending more is likely based on their success. They have better core talent than Detroit.

Cleveland maintain’s their competitiveness year to year. They’ll be good again.

To me, this should be a great impetus for the Pohlad’s to become more aggressive in a very good Division. They don’t want to go backward. I don’t believe they don’t care …. wealthy people are prideful and may not wish to choose to lose money in an operation but I don’t think for a second that the negative press doesn’t wear on the Family. Getting back closer to 2023 payroll is probable, particularly since Lopez & Correa have been under contract for 2 years and the 2025 raises have been a known issue for some time.

Moran - Haedrick - Funderburk …….Blewett - Henriquez - Stewart - Winder (7 guys) are all potential periphery guys for the Pen. Duran - Jax - Varland - Paddack - Topa - Sands are all core guys for 2025 Pen (6 guys). Could be a strength!

9 guys between Ryan - Ober - Lopez - SWR - Festa ………Morris - Matthews - Lewis - Raya.  A stable base to work from and complete enough to free up Paddack & Varland.

Efforts need to be put into lifting the offense!!

Buxton - Correa - Larnach - Wallner are the only 4 guys I have confidence in going forward and at least 3 of those 4 are potentially prone to prolonged droughts……….Lewis - Miranda - Jeffers - Vazquez - Castro are others that one would assume are on the Opening Day roster. That’s 4 open spots based on who may be acquired and who looks good in the Spring. Martin/Kiersey ……..Keaschall/Lee are guys one would look at as internal options. Julien needs tonight up AAA for a bit to get any serious consideration. To me, one FA bat or trade partner bat needs to be brought in to supplement these known options.

Posted
19 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

If the Twins can’t add a solid starting pitcher for next year they may as well be rebuilding.

How can they add that starting pitcher?

Add 15-18 million to the budget and identify the right veteran free agent pitcher.

Last December the Royals gave Lugo three years and 45 million and Wacha was two years and 32 million. They did their work and identified two starters that propelled the Royals to the playoffs. these two pitchers likely were viewed by some as innings eaters not of playoff starter caliber. The Royals identified them and signed them early in the free agency window.

Make a Pablo Lopez type trade.

Do the Twins have an established Luis Arraez type player to trade? Budget was not a factor in this decision as the salaries were close for both of these arbitration eligible players.  Willi Castro is not going to get it done on his own although the his salary will be similar to Arraez. It could be Castro plus significant prospect where Castro’s addition makes the budget work. Duran might be a better fit but his salary savings will make it hard to find a budget match in return. 

Make a Sonny Gray type trade

His salary was a bargain at 12 million but the Twins would still need to be willing to add to the budget as well as part with a very good prospect or two.

Make a Jake Odorizzi type trade

Similar to Lopez in that they both were in arbitration and due a Willi Castro level salary. It is different than Lopez in that Odorizzi did not have the same perceived excess value so a less significant prospect would be sent. In order to make the budget work they would need to trade Willi Castro in a different deal for a prospect.

Make a Corbin Burnes type trade

The acquisition cost of trading for a rental is so much lower than a player with 2 or 3 years of control because the excess value is that much lower. They could seek a pitcher with 1 year before free agency but the only comp I see is Framber Valdez. The Astros have two large arb 3 awards coming this winter. Would they move him?

Add to the budget or move a significant player?

They really don’t have a player with both a significant enough salary as well as excess value beyond that salary to trade. The closest is Willi Castro.

I think the only answer is to add to the budget. If they aren’t willing to add to the budget then it is a rebuild whether they call it one or not.

 

They’re not gonna do any of those things. Pablo, Ober, Ryan, SWR, Festa. Then Matthews, Rya, Lewis and culpepper are the next in line. 

Posted

We have basically the same core that advanced in the '23 postseason all we need to do is the same as this season fill the holes & not continue to make new holes. The CWS had a great young team the problem was that they lacked good veteran leadership w/o it they fell apart. IMO you need great veteran leadership to mentor & stabilize the younger ones. W/o Correa & Buxton for an extended amount of time, we didn't have viable veteran leadership to hold a younger team together & they fell apart.

Although I don't see much change from last year (unless Falvey gets lucky & another team drops a needed pitcher in his lap).

Posted

Enough of the badmouthing/negativity of our twins!!! This was learning experience for our kids! Twins will be better next season!!! Pressure is all on Cleveland/Detroit and KC!!! Can’t wait until next year as twins will comeback with a vengeance!!!

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