Twins Offseason Decision Point: What's Next for Chris Paddack?

[Greggory Masterson]

As the Sheriff prepares to ride once again, will it be into the Twin Cities? And will he be confined to the stables?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Chris Paddack and the Twins are at a crossroads. The Sheriff has, unfortunately, become a little redundant in this rotation. This town ain’t big enough for the six of them, if you will. Unlike a revolver, a rotation only has room for five. The Twins best get a wiggle on.

Okay, I’ll do my best to refrain from engaging in Old West parlance.

Paddack was acquired in a much-ballyhooed 2022 trade that sent future All-Star Brent Rooker and previous All-Star Taylor Rogers to San Diego. Alongside Paddack, the Twins received Emilio Pagan, a name not brought up around polite company.

The Twins saw something in Paddack, who, as a greenhorn rookie in 2019, threw 140 innings to the tune of a 3.33 ERA (126 ERA+), striking out more than a batter per inning. His performance was lackluster in the 2020 shortened season (4.73 ERA) and didn’t improve in an injury-shortened 2021 (5.07 ERA), though his underlying metrics were far more favorable.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Twins saw something in an injury-plagued player with team control and made a deal for him.

He lasted all of five starts in 2022 prior to his maladies catching up with him, as he went under the knife for his second Tommy John surgery. Upon returning from the apothecary, he pitched in four games between the regular season and the playoffs, all out of the bullpen. In 2024, he opened the season as a rotation arm, making 17 starts before being shut down for the season after July.

Normally, after six full seasons in the league Paddack would have been a free agent. However, the Twins signed him to a three-year, $12.5 million deal ahead of 2022 to pay him approximately $2.5 million per season as he came back from Tommy John and $7.5 for the final year, buying out a year of his free agency. And that’s how we’ve come to the place we are now.

As the team continues to run a budget in the bottom third of the league, that $7.5 million contract looms large. It was a fair gamble at the time, and it’s at a price that Paddack could potentially go for on the open market, but it’s a questionable use of the team’s resources, especially with arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews who could arguably be better options than Paddack for a tenth of the price. The quick ascension of players like Matthews and Andrew Morris, as well as the resurgence of Woods Richardson’s prospect stock probably weren’t foreseen, either.

So, let’s review the options.

Keep Paddack in the Rotation
This is the most straightforward move and the path of least resistance. Paddack could return to his place in the rotation, moving a younger starter out of the pitcher to begin the year. The most likely candidate to lose a spot would probably be Festa, as Woods Richardson has the longer track record, but Festa could be given the nod due to his higher ceiling. Either way, one of the two would be bumped (assuming that Matthews will finally be given a chance to get some Triple-A innings.)

Although both Festa and Woods Richardson have impressed and seem destined for MLB careers, there’s precedent for these Twins to stash depth rotation arms, which are seen as MLB-ready in the minors to begin the year. This year, they had planned on keeping Louie Varland in St. Paul before the announcement that Anthony DeSclafani would not pitch in 2024. (At the time, many saw Varland as having some potential to be a rotation piece, and he had 15 starts under his belt). In 2023, they held Bailey Ober out of the rotation, which was far more egregious.

So the Twins could open the season with a rotation of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Woods Richardson or Festa—with the other being the first line of defense against injury. They’d also have Zebby Matthews on call and other high-minors pitchers like Cory Lewis, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya if the straits become too dire.

This gambit might be getting too cute by half, and it could be argued that it’s time to hand the rotation over to the kids and reallocate those funds. At the same time, you can never have too much starting pitching depth.

Move Paddack to the Bullpen
What in tarnation? Paddack has a minimal history of bullpen work, coming out of the pen just five times in his MLB career. However, one was incredibly memorable: He recorded seven outs, struck out four, and allowed just one baserunner in Game 4 of the 2023 ALDS against Houston. He returned for the last couple of weeks of the season and pumped up his stuff in shorter bursts, and the stuff played.

It wasn’t all success for him, as he did have an appearance where he gave up three runs in two innings during the regular season, but it was only one of his four outings. Paring down his pitch mix to an upper-90s fastball, a good changeup, and one of his breaking pitches could be a recipe for success one or two innings at a time, and it’s a role he was preparing for if the Twins reached the postseason in 2024. The bullpen may be his best chance at success for the rest of his career.

Verily, he wouldn’t be expected to slot in among the top bullpen arms, at least until the team saw more from him. He’d also probably need some convincing, and if the team is worried about his salary as a starter, they’re definitely going to be wary of paying him $7.5 million to come out of the bullpen.

Trade Paddack
If the Twins don’t see him as worth the (admittedly paltry) sum he’s owed in the rotation or bullpen, the last resort would be to get rid of him. $7.5 million isn’t an unreasonable salary for one year of an up-and-down, injury-plagued pitcher still in his 20s with a bit of promise, but that figure means more to some teams than others.

What could the Twins get for Paddack? Well, probably not a ton. He doesn’t provide much in surplus value, though all teams value players differently, and some teams might be high on Paddack—seeing him as a tweak or a healthy stretch away from being a mid-rotation starter. As it stands, though, fans shouldn’t hold their breath on an exciting prospect package.

The club’s primary objective would probably be to find a team willing to take on Paddack’s salary and then decide amongst returns if there are multiple offers. They could run into another DeSclafani-Jorge Polanco situation in which a player from the other team, such as a first baseman or a right-handed platoon bat, is added to the deal to balance salary.

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How do you want to see the Twins handle Chris Paddack in 2025? Tell us in the comments below. Yeehaw.

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[DJL44]

They could also do a combination of the above. Keep Paddack until the trade deadline and deal him before he inevitably wears down at the end of the season.

[Twodogs]

Did it really seem like the Twins had enough pitching this season?  

[Craig Arko]

If he’s not traded he’ll be in the rotation. I also expect Irvin will be competing for one of the spots.

[Whitey333]

He's not worth keeping.  Dump him.  I'd rather see our young prospects get big league time than these often injured veterans.

 

[Badgolfer34]

Move him to the bullpen, if he pan’s out . Trade him at the deadline 

[LambchoP]

You can never have too much pitching. Twins will need depth as injuries pile up. If we can trade him for any kind of pitching prospects and or salary relief, we need to use that money on pitching anyways. He's probably more valuable to us in the bullpen than a starter, but 7.5 million is too much to pay for a reliever. 

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

If he’s not traded he’ll be in the rotation. I also expect Irvin will be competing for one of the spots.

Irvin is a free agent. >3 years of service time and not on the 40 man roster.

[Craig Arko]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Irvin is a free agent. >3 years of service time and not on the 40 man roster.

They may still tender him a contract, on the assumption he’ll come cheap. I’m not saying this is a great idea, but it’s consistent with how they do things.

[chpettit19]

If they think he can hold up for an entire season and be dominant in the bullpen that's what they should do with him. If Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala (in 1 inning stints only), and Topa can form the core of a Cleveland level bullpen that should be their move. Add 1 lefty or Varland (or Stewart when he's actually healthy) and a long guy and win games with your pen instead of having Paddack start 15 mediocre to bad games and get hurt. If him and Sands (and/or Varland) can each be 2 inning guys twice a week you can shorten some starts for the young guys while letting Lopez, Ober, and Ryan go 6 more often than not and have a really nice pitching staff.

The problem is the Twins will clutch their pearls at the idea of paying a reliever 7.5 mil. But the Twins have the makings of an absolute monster pen if Paddack can be dominant there. That's how I'd do it. Duran for saves, Jax for the 8th, and an army of flame throwers for the 6th (when needed) and 7th. Teams better score in the first 5 or the game is over. No more Jay Jackson types. Give me Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala, Topa, Varland and a long guy (Winder?) to start the year. And, yes, I know those are all righties. I don't care about lefties in the pen if all my righties are shutdown guys.

[gman]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If they think he can hold up for an entire season and be dominant in the bullpen that's what they should do with him. If Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala (in 1 inning stints only), and Topa can form the core of a Cleveland level bullpen that should be their move. Add 1 lefty or Varland (or Stewart when he's actually healthy) and a long guy and win games with your pen instead of having Paddack start 15 mediocre to bad games and get hurt. If him and Sands (and/or Varland) can each be 2 inning guys twice a week you can shorten some starts for the young guys while letting Lopez, Ober, and Ryan go 6 more often than not and have a really nice pitching staff.

The problem is the Twins will clutch their pearls at the idea of paying a reliever 7.5 mil. But the Twins have the makings of an absolute monster pen if Paddack can be dominant there. That's how I'd do it. Duran for saves, Jax for the 8th, and an army of flame throwers for the 6th (when needed) and 7th. Teams better score in the first 5 or the game is over. No more Jay Jackson types. Give me Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala, Topa, Varland and a long guy (Winder?) to start the year. And, yes, I know those are all righties. I don't care about lefties in the pen if all my righties are shutdown guys.

I agree with this pitching staff structure. I think that Hendrick and or Moran can be included as lefty options for the staff. Although Moran may be spending a month or two to start the season at St Paul.

[Brandon]

Why not start the season in the rotation for Paddack to give Woods-Richardson a chance to prove he can repeat last season.  Then move Paddack to the pen if no other injuries in the rotation and Festa or Mathew’s or Morris are dominating AAA. Depth is your friend.  Paddack is going to be more valuable to the Twins at 7.5 million than he would be in a trade.  More than likely.  

[bean5302]

Paddack is $7.5MM.
Jax & Duran are going to be $7MMish.
Does anybody truly believe Falvey would roll out a $20MM+ bullpen?

Paddack will be traded or in the rotation. Given Paddack hasn't turned in a single decent season since his rookie campaign 6 years ago and he's $7.5MM, I'd have to say the trade market for him is going to be rough. I think the Twins will have to eat a big portion of his salary, and then you have a rotation thin on depth with no money to fix it.

60% Paddack in the rotation
40% Twins eat some money or throw in a prospect (or draft pick like with Hughes) to get Paddack off the roster.

[LewFordLives]

I'm sure the Twins would love to have him hold down a rotation spot, but I'm not sure that he can.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm hoping bullpen or traded to free up money for a hitter 

[Linus]

Again that we are talking about $7.5 million being too much is sad. If you really want to win next year you put him in the rotation and see what happens. I suspect he Twins will trade him for a lottery ticket to dump the salary. 

[Mike Sixel]

He's never healthy. Please don't try him as a starter. 

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

If he’s not traded he’ll be in the rotation. I also expect Irvin will be competing for one of the spots.

Irvin elected free agency after being outrighted to St Paul.  The Twins are at liberty to compete for his services, of course, but at this point he's just one of a thousand possibilities.

/ oops, ninja'd by DJL44

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They could also do a combination of the above. Keep Paddack until the trade deadline and deal him before he inevitably wears down at the end of the season.

That's threading quite a needle, hanging on to a guy you consider an injury risk and expecting him to remain healthy enough for someone else to want to trade for him at exactly the right moment four months into a six month season before he suddenly goes kablooey. 

He's just about as likely to go full DeSclafani on us.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

Again that we are talking about $7.5 million being too much is sad. If you really want to win next year you put him in the rotation and see what happens. I suspect he Twins will trade him for a lottery ticket to dump the salary. 

$7.5MM isn't too much.

$37MM (Correa) + $22MM (Lopez) + $15MM (Buxton) + $10MM (Vazquez) + $7.5MM (Paddack) = $92MM is too much if you have a $130MM total payroll and 21 other active roster positions to fill. The structure of Correa's contract was designed with the expectation the Pohlad's would continue to be committed to the spending plan. The Pohlad's clearly went Crazy Ivan on the plan and now Correa's contract structure is creating a huge problem. At least this year is truly the toughest pinch year. Correa drops $5MM next year, Vazquez & Paddack drop off the books, though depth is becoming a real big concern for the Twins.

[Brandon]

In Paddack’s 17 starts he gave up 3 earned runs or less 11 times.  He gave up 4 or 5 runs 4 times and 2 blow outs of 7 and 9 earned runs given up.  
 

I think he is more effective than not.  The question with him in the rotation is how many innings can he throw in a game on a regular basis?  Can he get between 5 and 6 innings next season.  He didn’t last season.  
 

He will be worth his salary if he hits atleast 110-120 innings next season.  The other benefit of keeping Paddack is Ober and Ryan start getting expensive after next season Festa or whoever the new starter will be will have an extra year of waiting for arbitration which helps us keep a Ryan or Ober longer.

[DocBauer]

Paddack didn't last the season and didn't have a particularly good season at that. However, he'll only be 29yo next season, and further "built up" and further removed from his last surgery, there's some upside still there. And to be fair, as @Brandonppointed out, he had some good appearances in 2024. $7.4M is not a lot to pay a SP.

The Twins like depth, almost to the point of detriment at times, and Paddock provides that. What if SWR regresses? (I don't think he will). What if someone gets hurt in ST? Paddack provides insurance instead of being "forced" to make room for a rookie starter, and St Paul is brimming with options.

But I've said for a few weeks now that I think it's 50/50 he's moved elsewhere despite some positives to keeping him. Another team could be very interested in a $7M SP with experience and upside, maybe even as a mid season flip if their season doesn't go right.

There's a couple holes currently on the roster, LHRP, 1B, RH OF, in which there aren't obvious answers at this time. Paddack's salary won't go a long way to fill any of those spots, but it sure could help. And sooner or later, when you have this many young arms ready, or nearly ready, you have to trust in them.

I still say it's 50/50 he's moved. If he is, I wonder if it's for a prospect and to free up $, OR, is there any chance he brings back that LH pen arm, or that RH OF that's needed?

I can see him having success in the pen. And if the Twins simply can't find a taker, or they have to buy down his deal so far it doesn't offer any real net gain, then they probably keep him. At that point, the $ is spent. So maybe he can be convinced that a pen move is the best thing for his health, and his career. It would take a hard sell as I think he's convinced he's a starter. But after so many surgeries and injuries, maybe he's ready? That's too much $ for that kind of role, but, if the money is on the books already, I can see him thriving in the pen. 

But I think the Twins pay him to be in the pen only as a last result. They either target him for the rotation, or they move him.

[tony&rodney]

Looking purely at their projected skills levels, Paddack doesn't cut it in the starting rotation ahead of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Festa, or Woods Richardson. Personally,  I would put Matthews and Morris ahead of Paddack as well. Paddack could be a decent option in long relief, but one has to wonder whether the Twins are willing to make that decision or if Paddack would be content in the bullpen. Our opinions are worthless though as compared to MLB front office folks. . How do other teams evaluate the talent of the Twins players? Falvey should be pushing that envelope in hopes of improving the fortunes of the team for 2025. If Paddack is capable of being a #4 or #5 starting pitcher in the major leagues, there will be a trade market for him at $7.5 million.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

That's threading quite a needle, hanging on to a guy you consider an injury risk and expecting him to remain healthy enough for someone else to want to trade for him at exactly the right moment four months into a six month season before he suddenly goes kablooey. 

He's just about as likely to go full DeSclafani on us.

True, but.

It's the only way to get any value out of the player.  He's too valuable to just dump, especially for the Twins. I dont totally mind the idea of the whole year in the bullpen but it would signal they don't believe he can start which sends the wrong signal to the trade market.

Someone is going to have to Keuchel innings somewhere. 

If he looks OK at the deadline, deal him. If he looks great, ride him. If he really struggles, off to the bullpen.  If he gets injured, call the insurance agent.

He starts the year in the rotation simply as the only option that makes sense. The money is spent. Don't cut off options until you are required.

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

True, but.

It's the only way to get any value out of the player.  He's too valuable to just dump, especially for the Twins. I dont totally mind the idea of the whole year in the bullpen but it would signal they don't believe he can start which sends the wrong signal to the trade market.

Someone is going to have to Keuchel innings somewhere. 

If he looks OK at the deadline, deal him. If he looks great, ride him. If he really struggles, off to the bullpen.  If he gets injured, call the insurance agent.

He starts the year in the rotation simply as the only option that makes sense. The money is spent. Don't cut off options until you are required.

I don't disagree that different scenarios could play out and the FO needs to be ready to handle each and every one of them.

I just prefer to plan on success except when in a rebuild phase.  Trade value at the deadline means little to me during off-season planning.  If the team tanks but certain pieces like Paddack were productive, by all means, pivot and sell him (and other expiring contracts, etc).  A good FO can do that on nearly a moment's notice, based on whatever standard talent evaluation methods they have.  It's a tactic, not a guiding strategy.

What I wrote in response to DJL44 was basically that if Paddack is going well then the team has a higher chance of going well too, and if the team is in sell mode at the deadline then the odds are higher that Paddack has flamed out again.  Not that he is key to the rotation, but I still see only a thin sliver of scenarios where he's trade bait.  However, for off-season planning purposes it's fair to at least acknowledge that in such a scenario, his contract is modest enough that he's not certain to be untradable - he's not Kyle Farmer, where even the player himself expressed surprise he was kept at the price he cost.

I don't like trading away pitching. But if there's a reasonable chance that other in-house options will perform as well as the unpredictable Paddack, I might trade him simply because his is an expiring contract going into 2025.  If he fails, he fails.  If he does well, it's only for a season and that's not part of building a sustainable winner.  Only if 2025 is a go-for-it year and Paddack is a key to that effort would I feel differently   IOW he's not Sonny Gray, either.

[tony&rodney]

29 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

 

He starts the year in the rotation simply as the only option that makes sense.

What about Dobnak? He makes more money than Festa, Woods Richardson, and Matthews as well. 

If Paddack is clearly better than all of Festa, Woods Richardson, Matthews, and Morris he gets a rotation spot. If he isn't, he doesn't. Unless we are suggesting that the strategy for next year is to build deadline trade value and not win games. Are we? Otherwise, it only makes sense to use the best starters if the goal is to win games. Paddack hasn't done anything at all to show he is superior to the others. He needs to earn it and that is the only reasonably way to determine who makes up the starting rotation. Right now, I would say that all of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Woods Richardson have earned their starting slots next season if they are healthy and on the team. The last spot should be an open competition. The Twins have enough problems without  handing out unearned roster positions.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

What about Dobnak? He makes more money than Festa, Woods Richardson, and Matthews as well. 

If Paddack is clearly better than all of Festa, Woods Richardson, Matthews, and Morris he gets a rotation spot. If he isn't, he doesn't. Unless we are suggesting that the strategy for next year is to build deadline trade value and not win games. Are we? Otherwise, it only makes sense to use the best starters if the goal is to win games. Paddack hasn't done anything at all to show he is superior to the others. He needs to earn it and that is the only reasonably way to determine who makes up the starting rotation. Right now, I would say that all of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, and Woods Richardson have earned their starting slots next season if they are healthy and on the team. The last spot should be an open competition. The Twins have enough problems without  handing out unearned roster positions.

If his arm hasn't fallen off at the end of spring training he makes the team, we can assume.

It's a pretty simple 2+2 to know that players without options are higher on the depth chart.  He earned the spot when he earned the 7.5m contract.

With there being no such thing as too much pitching, we should assume they will handle this the same as almost every other veteran vs rookie situation.

Festa et al will be on an Ober build up plan anyway, someone will have to eat the innings they can't. It will take 7-8 starters at a minimum.

Chris Paddack, barring his arm falling off, or crazy trade, will be in the starting rotation breaking camp.  He could end up in the bullpen anywhere from 1 to 6 months from then.

We are not building a playoff roster at this time.  The priorities are different.

Thank you for coming to my Ted talk.

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

If his arm hasn't fallen off at the end of spring training he makes the team, we can assume.

It's a pretty simple 2+2 to know that players without options are higher on the depth chart.  He earned the spot when he earned the 7.5m contract.

With there being no such thing as too much pitching, we should assume they will handle this the same as almost every other veteran vs rookie situation.

Festa et al will be on an Ober build up plan anyway, someone will have to eat the innings they can't. It will take 7-8 starters at a minimum.

Chris Paddack, barring his arm falling off, or crazy trade, will be in the starting rotation breaking camp.  He could end up in the bullpen anywhere from 1 to 6 months from then.

We are not building a playoff roster at this time.  The priorities are different.

Thank you for coming to my Ted talk.

.... except Paddack has done nothing to earn the contract.

What somehow gets lost is that Paddack has been totally mediocre since 2019, very hittable. Now, Falvey may decide that Paddack must be one of the starting pitchers next season since he traded for him but it is a real stretch to expect much from him.

Sure, options exist for all of Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews, Morris, and Raya. Wallner and Lewis have options too. The Twins need to make an attempt to win in 2025 and put their best players on the field whenever possible.

I liked what I saw when watching Paddack in 2019 but he has never been the same. There may be possibilities for him as a relief pitcher, but it is doubtful the Twins choose that path. I do think some team will see his $7.5 million contract as acceptable for a #5 pitcher, making a trade the best option for the Twins.

 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

.... except Paddack has done nothing to earn the contract.

What somehow gets lost is that Paddack has been totally mediocre since 2019, very hittable. Now, Falvey may decide that Paddack must be one of the starting pitchers next season since he traded for him but it is a real stretch to expect much from him.

Sure, options exist for all of Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews, Morris, and Raya. Wallner and Lewis have options too. The Twins need to make an attempt to win in 2025 and put their best players on the field whenever possible.

I liked what I saw when watching Paddack in 2019 but he has never been the same. There may be possibilities for him as a relief pitcher, but it is doubtful the Twins choose that path. I do think some team will see his $7.5 million contract as acceptable for a #5 pitcher, making a trade the best option for the Twins.

 

The contract was earned before he signed it, kinda the only way it works.

Just guess how much he was worth this year per Fangraphs estimations?  When he was a no good, lousy, injured, tired, bad cowboy hat wearing, mediocre, hittable so and so?

$8.3M.  For his 1.0 fWAR.  $8.3m in a season when nothing went right coming back from injury.

We have some sort of weird warped idea of what pitching actually costs.  It won't take much to be worth his salary next year.  He is one of their best players, you don't have to like it.  Again, a regular season grind is different than a postseason stack.

He starts, period.  They control him for another year and owe it to him and the team to use him to the most advantage possible.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

The contract was earned before he signed it, kinda the only way it works.

Just guess how much he was worth this year per Fangraphs estimations?  When he was a no good, lousy, injured, tired, bad cowboy hat wearing, mediocre, hittable so and so?

$8.3M.  For his 1.0 fWAR.  $8.3m in a season when nothing went right coming back from injury.

We have some sort of weird warped idea of what pitching actually costs.  It won't take much to be worth his salary next year.  He is one of their best players, you don't have to like it.  Again, a regular season grind is different than a postseason stack.

He starts, period.  They control him for another year and owe it to him and the team to use him to the most advantage possible.

Paddack basically ran into the same deal as Dobnak. They get similar results from different styles. For five years now, Paddack gives up more hits than innings and does not reach a strikeout per inning. He has been injured and mediocre when well enough to pitch.

I took a beating last winter on Twins Daily because I was wishful for 100-120 innings as a ceiling from Paddack, whereas the overwhelming consensus was 120-150 innings. These looks forward, including my guesses last winter, are all just are own thoughts. My basis is my observation and you have your thoughts as well. There is nothing to say that Paddack cannot be a decent starting pitcher. I hope he does well. I just don't see it and gifting him a spot unless he clearly earns it in Spring Training portends a losing look. I get that veterans often get preference but hasn't done anything worth noting in five years. Perhaps Kyle Farmer best exemplifies your stance that a veteran gets the position and playing time. 

I guess we disagree about the skill level and worth of Chris Paddack for the 2025 Twins. My expectation is that he is traded for anything or as a part of a larger deal, but I hope you are correct and Paddack is successful for the Twins.