Twins Offseason Decision Point: What's Next for Chris Paddack?

[Fatbat]

He will be given every chance to be the #4 SP.  he produced like a #3 in 11 games in ‘24.  He may be  sent to the pen in july/aug but then he might have a 3,2 era and 1.2 whip and ride his way to a contract extension.  He might be lights out as a 6/7th inning shutdown RP. Lord knows we need 2 of those guys! 
He will not be traded cause we never have enough pitching. 
Note to JPohlad,  spend some of your $$$$ to right size your business. 

[Doctor Wu]

I see the  Twins keeping Paddack and not trading him, at least not until the summer deadline. I think he still has more value as a starter, but if he can become some sort of "lights out" bullpen piece I'd be up for that too. In any case, this idea of trading him doesn't seem to be the best move, especially with his value relatively low. I can't imagine that we'd get more than a minor league piece, and a very minor one, if we attempted to trade him this winter. As others have pointed out, he's still relatively young and seems like he has a lot of prove. Give him the chance. 

[Doctor Gast]

I was dead set against the Rogers, Rooker/ Paddack, Pagan trade. In '22 we desperately needed a strong BP. extending Rogers on a reasonable contract made perfect sense. but FO out-smarted us by picking up a promising young SP & a RP they could turn into a closer together with Duffy. Everybody knew Paddack's arm was going to fall off but that didn't stop them from showcasing him & Pagan. We wasted our money on them in '22. Paddack wasn't going to be around long enough to show any gain (only loss) so they extended him with a generous contract. Paddack's hype was he was going to  fill the Gray hole in innings & production (that didn't happen).  Falvey is more concerned about looking good than the good of the team.

That said, we won't get anything for him in trade, FO will still want to see more in return from him & we still need veteran depth in the rotation. So IMO he'll stay here in the rotation until he can't.

[rv78]

Yeah, maybe they can find another injury prone player to flip him for.

[laloesch]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

$7.5MM isn't too much.

$37MM (Correa) + $22MM (Lopez) + $15MM (Buxton) + $10MM (Vazquez) + $7.5MM (Paddack) = $92MM is too much if you have a $130MM total payroll and 21 other active roster positions to fill. The structure of Correa's contract was designed with the expectation the Pohlad's would continue to be committed to the spending plan. The Pohlad's clearly went Crazy Ivan on the plan and now Correa's contract structure is creating a huge problem. At least this year is truly the toughest pinch year. Correa drops $5MM next year, Vazquez & Paddack drop off the books, though depth is becoming a real big concern for the Twins.

Ain't that the truth.  They did go Crazy Ivan and I'm sure Correa is not happy about it.  He was probably sold a bill of goods on what the Twin's plans were going forward.  

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If they think he can hold up for an entire season and be dominant in the bullpen that's what they should do with him. If Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala (in 1 inning stints only), and Topa can form the core of a Cleveland level bullpen that should be their move. Add 1 lefty or Varland (or Stewart when he's actually healthy) and a long guy and win games with your pen instead of having Paddack start 15 mediocre to bad games and get hurt. If him and Sands (and/or Varland) can each be 2 inning guys twice a week you can shorten some starts for the young guys while letting Lopez, Ober, and Ryan go 6 more often than not and have a really nice pitching staff.

The problem is the Twins will clutch their pearls at the idea of paying a reliever 7.5 mil. But the Twins have the makings of an absolute monster pen if Paddack can be dominant there. That's how I'd do it. Duran for saves, Jax for the 8th, and an army of flame throwers for the 6th (when needed) and 7th. Teams better score in the first 5 or the game is over. No more Jay Jackson types. Give me Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala, Topa, Varland and a long guy (Winder?) to start the year. And, yes, I know those are all righties. I don't care about lefties in the pen if all my righties are shutdown guys.

I pretty much agree…….as we all know a lefty would be handy but an effective righty is better than a trophy lefty.

Henriquez has 4 pitches - longer guy potential. Really though, if all 8 guys can pitch, a long guy isn’t really necessary.

Canterino is probably #20 on Pen depth but with health, he could help. Obviously, Stewart - Headrick - healthy Moran are all depth options…….. a sharp Funderburk is a maybe. I saw a handful of times and heard Morneau comment that “Blewett can pitch” and how did he become a hidden September call-up? 

Bottom line is including Paddack in Pen offsets the need to go find an “experienced reliever” in free agency (& spend most of $7.5M on a ?? arm) Pen could be a real strength with the additions of Varland - Topa - Stewart - Paddack from the jump in April. Tempting to ease Stewart back in June maybe to keep innings down?

[tony&rodney]

Can someone explain why the preference for Paddack but not Dobnak? While I don't actually prefer either, it seems that MLB batters prefer to face Paddack. I know Falvey has high hopes for Paddack but am curious to read a reasoned response(not just a thumb down)  about why Paddack is a fair option for the Twins in 2025.

[Riverbrian]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If they think he can hold up for an entire season and be dominant in the bullpen that's what they should do with him. If Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala (in 1 inning stints only), and Topa can form the core of a Cleveland level bullpen that should be their move. Add 1 lefty or Varland (or Stewart when he's actually healthy) and a long guy and win games with your pen instead of having Paddack start 15 mediocre to bad games and get hurt. If him and Sands (and/or Varland) can each be 2 inning guys twice a week you can shorten some starts for the young guys while letting Lopez, Ober, and Ryan go 6 more often than not and have a really nice pitching staff.

The problem is the Twins will clutch their pearls at the idea of paying a reliever 7.5 mil. But the Twins have the makings of an absolute monster pen if Paddack can be dominant there. That's how I'd do it. Duran for saves, Jax for the 8th, and an army of flame throwers for the 6th (when needed) and 7th. Teams better score in the first 5 or the game is over. No more Jay Jackson types. Give me Duran, Jax, Sands, Paddack, Alcala, Topa, Varland and a long guy (Winder?) to start the year. And, yes, I know those are all righties. I don't care about lefties in the pen if all my righties are shutdown guys.

I'm with ya all the way... with one rather large exception. 

I haven't given up on Paddack as a starter yet. 

Yeah I know... that's my opinion and therefore cross to bear. I hadn't given up on Varland as a starter either but now I'm ready to put Varland in the pen. 

I think the Twins on paper have the makings of a top of the league bullpen without Paddack.

A top of the pile left hander with Gas like Tanner Scott or Chapman would be the perfect addition in my opinion. Sign someone like that... The Bullpen is good to go. They can always throw Paddack into the pen later in the year if a hole develops and the starter thing isn't working out.   

With Paddack... I just think the guy has stuff and I'm not ready to give up on that stuff as a starter. We will need the depth. 

[Otaknam]

My guess is they keep Paddock in the rotation for depth and see what happens, if they are willing to pay the salary. They can move him to the bullpen if necessary to try to get some value from the trade, which was another mistake by the front office. Acquiring injured starters is their signature move. The best hope for the team is to have a couple of the young guys to become number three starters and develop similarly to Ober. But I don’t see any top of the rotation guys yet. Maybe Raya if they ever let him pitcher more than four innngs. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Can someone explain why the preference for Paddack but not Dobnak? While I don't actually prefer either, it seems that MLB batters prefer to face Paddack. I know Falvey has high hopes for Paddack but am curious to read a reasoned response(not just a thumb down)  about why Paddack is a fair option for the Twins in 2025.

If you're just looking at 2024, MLB batters preferred to face Dobnak. Dobnak K% was 15.6 compared to Paddack's 20.6. Dobnak's BB% was 11.1 compared to Paddack's 5.5. Insanely small sample size, but Dobnak wasn't good in his 9.2 innings pitched last year.

I don't want either in the rotation, but Paddack has the better stuff and coming out of the pen could be a real weapon, I think.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm with ya all the way... with one rather large exception. 

I haven't given up on Paddack as a starter yet. 

Yeah I know... that's my opinion and therefore cross to bear. I hadn't given up on Varland as a starter either but now I'm ready to put Varland in the pen. 

I think the Twins on paper have the makings of a top of the league bullpen without Paddack.

A top of the pile left hander with Gas like Tanner Scott or Chapman would be the perfect addition in my opinion. Sign someone like that... The Bullpen is good to go. They can always throw Paddack into the pen later in the year if a hole develops and the starter thing isn't working out.   

With Paddack... I just think the guy has stuff and I'm not ready to give up on that stuff as a starter. We will need the depth. 

I don't disagree on him having stuff and he was good in most of his starts last year. I just don't think he can hold up. If he is Stewart in the pen and can't hold up there either then just get as many starts out of him as you can. But if he could throw the entire season out of the pen and get you 70-90 innings that way I'd prefer that over 15 starts and a 60-day IL trip.

They do/should have enough good arms in the pen to start the year so I am not totally against not putting him there, but I think it's time to lean on the kids in the rotation. They're going to need them moving forward and it's time to start getting them experience. Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR and a fight between Festa and Zebby with the other taking the #6 spot in St Paul would be my plan. But I certainly don't think Festa and Zebby both in St Paul with Paddack in the 5 spot is outrageous. Morris, Raya, and Lewis all starting the year at AAA gives me more hope for the youngsters to start taking over. But having all 5 of those guys in St Paul isn't a bad place to be with Paddack in Minneapolis. I just want to turn the games into 5 inning games whenever one of those guys start. And I think Paddack, Varland, and Sands as 2 inning monsters once or twice a week each makes it pretty realistic that the Twins could say the game is over if they have the lead after 5 most nights.

As odd as it feels to say right now, I think there's real reason to expect the Twins pitching to be very good in 2025. The offense on the other hand...I have some real concerns.

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't disagree on him having stuff and he was good in most of his starts last year. I just don't think he can hold up. If he is Stewart in the pen and can't hold up there either then just get as many starts out of him as you can. But if he could throw the entire season out of the pen and get you 70-90 innings that way I'd prefer that over 15 starts and a 60-day IL trip.

They do/should have enough good arms in the pen to start the year so I am not totally against not putting him there, but I think it's time to lean on the kids in the rotation. They're going to need them moving forward and it's time to start getting them experience. Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR and a fight between Festa and Zebby with the other taking the #6 spot in St Paul would be my plan. But I certainly don't think Festa and Zebby both in St Paul with Paddack in the 5 spot is outrageous. Morris, Raya, and Lewis all starting the year at AAA gives me more hope for the youngsters to start taking over. But having all 5 of those guys in St Paul isn't a bad place to be with Paddack in Minneapolis. I just want to turn the games into 5 inning games whenever one of those guys start. And I think Paddack, Varland, and Sands as 2 inning monsters once or twice a week each makes it pretty realistic that the Twins could say the game is over if they have the lead after 5 most nights.

As odd as it feels to say right now, I think there's real reason to expect the Twins pitching to be very good in 2025. The offense on the other hand...I have some real concerns.

I'm with ya. 

We are not going to sign a top end starter so the youngsters are key and I am really excited about the bullpen as it stands. Just want that left handed dude to bring it home. If they can't land the top left handed dude... just don't Okert into that hole. Stay with the right handers. 

Yep... offense is what we need and I'm just praying that they stop trying to fill the offensive spaces with specialists so we got a chance to improve the offense.  

 

[DJL44]

45 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm with ya. 

We are not going to sign a top end starter so the youngsters are key and I am really excited about the bullpen as it stands. Just want that left handed dude to bring it home. If they can't land the top left handed dude... just don't Okert into that hole. Stay with the right handers. 

Yep... offense is what we need and I'm just praying that they stop trying to fill the offensive spaces with specialists so we got a chance to improve the offense.  

They need defense as much as they need offense. Better defense improves the rotation AND the bullpen. I am with you regarding no specialists. They can't have bench players who are lousy at defense and only hit lefthanded pitching well. Rocco will pinch hit for his LH starter in the 3rd inning and the hitting and defense will suffer for the rest of the game.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

If you're just looking at 2024, MLB batters preferred to face Dobnak. Dobnak K% was 15.6 compared to Paddack's 20.6. Dobnak's BB% was 11.1 compared to Paddack's 5.5. Insanely small sample size, but Dobnak wasn't good in his 9.2 innings pitched last year.

I don't want either in the rotation, but Paddack has the better stuff and coming out of the pen could be a real weapon, I think.

Thank you. I appreciate the response and agree with using Paddack in the bullpen, but prefer a trade.

It would be hard to see a repeat of using veterans with less talent again. Festa has talent.

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They need defense as much as they need offense. Better defense improves the rotation AND the bullpen. 

To me, this is important. We saw ball after ball slide through the infield or land in the outfield repeatedly because of below average defense. Even Buxton and Correa, due to injuries, were less than their former selves. The offense is a problem for sure, but rolling again with the same poor defense just puts the team in a hole unless those bats are top three in runs scored in MLB.

Falvey has his work cut out for him.

[jmlease1]

Paddack is a tough one. The contract is more than reasonable, but we're no longer living with a reasonable payroll. I'd love to see Paddack shift to a bullpen role as a bridge reliever, expected to go 2 innings every 3-4 days; I think he could be successful in that role and it would support the team well any time a starter came out before the 6th (and occasionally other times as well). There's a real need on this team for a long reliever, not as a mop-up guy who eats innings a couple times a month when the game implodes, but someone they expect to be able to pitch to any part of a lineup and be effective 1 time through or so.

That 5 inning start from any of the rotation guys works a lot better if you have a Paddack coming in for 2+ right after to get you to the Duran/Jax/Alcala/Stewart group, and makes it easier to run with SWR & Festa in the rotation.

I expect that Paddack is in the rotation, though. I think they'll want to run with him over Festa and will try to claw their value back through starts. Unless he gets traded in a salary dump (more than possible with our parsimonious ownership), although I have to wonder if that's going to be harder to do with other teams facing a haircut on their local tv rights?

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Unless he gets traded in a salary dump (more than possible with our parsimonious ownership), although I have to wonder if that's going to be harder to do with other teams facing a haircut on their local tv rights?

It will be hard to dump salary with 16 teams looking at unsettled TV money. One suggestion I had for trading Paddack was to find a team who needs to use him as a starter and deal him for a veteran reliever on that team who makes half his salary. That is a better use of resources than putting Paddack in the bullpen.

Veteran for slightly cheaper veteran will get them under the $130M and could get them the players they need to fill the holes on the roster.

[LA Vikes Fan]

7 hours ago, Fatbat said:

He will be given every chance to be the #4 SP.  he produced like a #3 in 11 games in ‘24.  He may be  sent to the pen in july/aug but then he might have a 3,2 era and 1.2 whip and ride his way to a contract extension.  He might be lights out as a 6/7th inning shutdown RP. Lord knows we need 2 of those guys! 
He will not be traded cause we never have enough pitching. 
Note to JPohlad,  spend some of your $$$$ to right size your business. 

Guys. I think this one is pretty easy. Every team needs at least 7 starters a season, most need 9-10. With Paddack we have 7 counting Festa and Matthews, both of whom are likely to start at AAA. Varland proved this year that he is a relief pitcher, not a starter. There simply are very few decent starting pitchers out there one can get for $7.5 million and to get one, you have to take a major risk on  someone knowing that at best you're throwing away your money on a mediocre innings eater and it's usually worse. Every now and then you see a Flaherty, but not very often. 

I really think this is a no-brainer. Start the season with Paddack in the rotation. Hope you can get 100 – 120 starting innings out of him with an ERA under 4.25. That means probably two trips to the IL during the course of the season. He can always be moved to the bullpen if he is ineffective but there's no reason to start him there. Festa and Matthews start in AAA and are up in that order for the inevitable injury or ineffectiveness of one of the starting five. We can also hope that guys just now hitting the AAA level like Raya, Lewis or Morris would be additional depth and show enough to get an opportunity in 2025 at the MLB level. What you don't do is deprive yourself of someone who showed he can at least be an average starter at the MLB level by making him a middle reliever or trading him for not very much.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't disagree on him having stuff and he was good in most of his starts last year. I just don't think he can hold up. If he is Stewart in the pen and can't hold up there either then just get as many starts out of him as you can. But if he could throw the entire season out of the pen and get you 70-90 innings that way I'd prefer that over 15 starts and a 60-day IL trip.

They do/should have enough good arms in the pen to start the year so I am not totally against not putting him there, but I think it's time to lean on the kids in the rotation. They're going to need them moving forward and it's time to start getting them experience. Ryan, Lopez, Ober, SWR and a fight between Festa and Zebby with the other taking the #6 spot in St Paul would be my plan. But I certainly don't think Festa and Zebby both in St Paul with Paddack in the 5 spot is outrageous. Morris, Raya, and Lewis all starting the year at AAA gives me more hope for the youngsters to start taking over. But having all 5 of those guys in St Paul isn't a bad place to be with Paddack in Minneapolis. I just want to turn the games into 5 inning games whenever one of those guys start. And I think Paddack, Varland, and Sands as 2 inning monsters once or twice a week each makes it pretty realistic that the Twins could say the game is over if they have the lead after 5 most nights.

As odd as it feels to say right now, I think there's real reason to expect the Twins pitching to be very good in 2025. The offense on the other hand...I have some real concerns.

I think part of leaning on the kids in the rotation is having someone else around to help manage their innings.  SWR probably can pitch a full year but Festa, Zebby etc are more likely 120 inning guys.

Paddack is my guy for that, for at least the first few months. Then we see what happens.

[Rosterman]

I'd be happy to keep him as the rotation alternative going into the season and hope we get 15-or-so starts out of his arm, with average or above results and enough that he looks appetizing to another team to absorb half-the-contract and be traded, opening a rotation spot for the remainder of the season for Festa/Matthews or any oher "rookies" to get their feet wet.

[chpettit19]

28 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think part of leaning on the kids in the rotation is having someone else around to help manage their innings.  SWR probably can pitch a full year but Festa, Zebby etc are more likely 120 inning guys.

Paddack is my guy for that, for at least the first few months. Then we see what happens.

It will be interesting to see how they manage their innings. Zebby is a big boy and I'd like to think he can do 140 innings next year. But I'd bet we see a lot of quick hook complaints early next year whether those guys are in AAA or with the Twins.

I actually like the collection of arms they have. Their hurdle is going to be managing workloads for everyone while putting them in the best roles for them to succeed. I don't like the typical long reliever role of sitting around for 2 weeks before coming in during a blowout. Think it's a waste of a roster spot. But if you can get 2 or 3 guys in your pen that can go 2 innings every 4 days you can really manage your entire staff pretty well. Or at least in my head you can. I think Paddack has a role on this team. It's just a question of what that role is.

[David Maro]

Why is it that people want to keep dead arm pitchers taking up valuable roster spots.This team needs pitchers who can pitch not waiting around to see if and when they can pitch.With limited payroll like everyone keeps reminding us about how about paying pitchers who pitch not just stand around in the dugout.We also have way to many players doing the same thing.This team should be blowing things up and going a different direction.

[Mike Sixel]

When did paddack last pitch 100 innings? 2021.... Why does anyone think he's going to be healthy this year?

[Jocko87]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It will be interesting to see how they manage their innings. Zebby is a big boy and I'd like to think he can do 140 innings next year. But I'd bet we see a lot of quick hook complaints early next year whether those guys are in AAA or with the Twins.

I actually like the collection of arms they have. Their hurdle is going to be managing workloads for everyone while putting them in the best roles for them to succeed. I don't like the typical long reliever role of sitting around for 2 weeks before coming in during a blowout. Think it's a waste of a roster spot. But if you can get 2 or 3 guys in your pen that can go 2 innings every 4 days you can really manage your entire staff pretty well. Or at least in my head you can. I think Paddack has a role on this team. It's just a question of what that role is.

Ober was a big guy too and they took it slow.  Zebby would be making a huge jump to get to 140, I think everyone would be delighted with that number.

I like the arms too.  Arguing over the 5th starter before a single move has been made is a good thing. So many years wondering who the number two guy is. That gives them options, which is what they need for a 7 month season.

If Festa or Zebby tears up St Paul, it's a good problem to have.  There's a lot of innings to cover.

[tony&rodney]

56 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

SWR probably can pitch a full year but Festa, Zebby etc are more likely 120 inning guys.

You are likely correct that Falvey wants Paddack to be a starting pitcher. However, it should be at least noteworthy that all of Festa, Matthews, and Morris have already pitched beyond 120 innings and could easily go past 150 innings in 2025. Paddack hasn't gone past 120 IP since 2019 and it seems very unlikely he makes 100 innings again as he did in 2021.

He might be a decent reliever eventually. In any event, this will be Falvey's decision.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

Ober was a big guy too and they took it slow.  Zebby would be making a huge jump to get to 140, I think everyone would be delighted with that number.

I like the arms too.  Arguing over the 5th starter before a single move has been made is a good thing. So many years wondering who the number two guy is. That gives them options, which is what they need for a 7 month season.

If Festa or Zebby tears up St Paul, it's a good problem to have.  There's a lot of innings to cover.

Zebby threw 134.2 innings this year. 97 in the minors and 37.2 for the Twins. He should be able to 160 this year, but if he's in the majors all, or most of the, year I'd lower it to a 140 goal. Should be more than doable.

They have come a long ways from the Shoemaker, Happ, etc. days. And that is very nice to see.

[Jocko87]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You are likely correct that Falvey wants Paddack to be a starting pitcher. However, it should be at least noteworthy that all of Festa, Matthews, and Morris have already pitched beyond 120 innings and could easily go past 150 innings in 2025. Paddack hasn't gone past 120 IP since 2019 and it seems very unlikely he makes 100 innings again as he did in 2021.

He might be a decent reliever eventually. In any event, this will be Falvey's decision.

 

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Zebby threw 134.2 innings this year. 97 in the minors and 37.2 for the Twins. He should be able to 160 this year, but if he's in the majors all, or most of the, year I'd lower it to a 140 goal. Should be more than doable.

They have come a long ways from the Shoemaker, Happ, etc. days. And that is very nice to see.

 

I read it wrong, too many levels in one year.  I had both of them closer to 110.  Ober was also making a much larger jump than they would be either way. 

It doesn't change my opinion much, other than to be more comfortable with the arms in house. 

[sun]

I agree with using Paddock as a combo starter - long reliever. Too many Twins pitchers have setback games to where the Twins require an early hook for the pitcher. I have no problem having a rotation of 6 starters. Perhaps that could save some arms for later in the season. There's too many arms being lost late in the season.  It's better to keep Paddock around & give him & others some extra rest between games. If he needs to come out of the pen then he comes out of the pen. But we need more of our starting pitchers to last all season. We paid him to get fixed, next it will be time for him to pay us back.  I hope he can handle it & improve even more.

[David Maro]

No one is talking about Ryan here or any where in regards to if or when he will be back.Until he is on the mound actually throwing pitches,he is still a question mark.So at this point in time the starting 5 are the same as they ended the season with.Why is this organization so against having a LH starter.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

No one is talking about Ryan here or any where in regards to if or when he will be back.Until he is on the mound actually throwing pitches,he is still a question mark.So at this point in time the starting 5 are the same as they ended the season with.Why is this organization so against having a LH starter.

They've drafted LH starters, they keep getting hurt. Also, I'm not sure it matters at all. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

No one is talking about Ryan here or any where in regards to if or when he will be back. Until he is on the mound actually throwing pitches, he is still a question mark. So at this point in time the starting 5 are the same as they ended the season with. Why is this organization so against having a LH starter.

You still have to do some projections, and there have been no indicators that Ryan won't be ready for spring training that we've seen. And Paddack was close to returning in a relief role; he just wasn't going to be able to get stretched out in time to start. Since they don't have any games to pitch in right now, you don't need to base the projected rotation on who is 100% right now.

I don't think the Twins are opposed at all to a LH starter. They've got one developing in AAA in Nowlin and another in AA in Macleod. They're not as high on the rotation prospect lists because other guys are pitching better, not because the Twins are against LH starters.