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Chris Paddack and the Twins are at a crossroads. The Sheriff has, unfortunately, become a little redundant in this rotation. This town ain’t big enough for the six of them, if you will. Unlike a revolver, a rotation only has room for five. The Twins best get a wiggle on.
Okay, I’ll do my best to refrain from engaging in Old West parlance.
Paddack was acquired in a much-ballyhooed 2022 trade that sent future All-Star Brent Rooker and previous All-Star Taylor Rogers to San Diego. Alongside Paddack, the Twins received Emilio Pagan, a name not brought up around polite company.
The Twins saw something in Paddack, who, as a greenhorn rookie in 2019, threw 140 innings to the tune of a 3.33 ERA (126 ERA+), striking out more than a batter per inning. His performance was lackluster in the 2020 shortened season (4.73 ERA) and didn’t improve in an injury-shortened 2021 (5.07 ERA), though his underlying metrics were far more favorable.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Twins saw something in an injury-plagued player with team control and made a deal for him.
He lasted all of five starts in 2022 prior to his maladies catching up with him, as he went under the knife for his second Tommy John surgery. Upon returning from the apothecary, he pitched in four games between the regular season and the playoffs, all out of the bullpen. In 2024, he opened the season as a rotation arm, making 17 starts before being shut down for the season after July.
Normally, after six full seasons in the league Paddack would have been a free agent. However, the Twins signed him to a three-year, $12.5 million deal ahead of 2022 to pay him approximately $2.5 million per season as he came back from Tommy John and $7.5 for the final year, buying out a year of his free agency. And that’s how we’ve come to the place we are now.
As the team continues to run a budget in the bottom third of the league, that $7.5 million contract looms large. It was a fair gamble at the time, and it’s at a price that Paddack could potentially go for on the open market, but it’s a questionable use of the team’s resources, especially with arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews who could arguably be better options than Paddack for a tenth of the price. The quick ascension of players like Matthews and Andrew Morris, as well as the resurgence of Woods Richardson’s prospect stock probably weren’t foreseen, either.
So, let’s review the options.
Keep Paddack in the Rotation
This is the most straightforward move and the path of least resistance. Paddack could return to his place in the rotation, moving a younger starter out of the pitcher to begin the year. The most likely candidate to lose a spot would probably be Festa, as Woods Richardson has the longer track record, but Festa could be given the nod due to his higher ceiling. Either way, one of the two would be bumped (assuming that Matthews will finally be given a chance to get some Triple-A innings.)
Although both Festa and Woods Richardson have impressed and seem destined for MLB careers, there’s precedent for these Twins to stash depth rotation arms, which are seen as MLB-ready in the minors to begin the year. This year, they had planned on keeping Louie Varland in St. Paul before the announcement that Anthony DeSclafani would not pitch in 2024. (At the time, many saw Varland as having some potential to be a rotation piece, and he had 15 starts under his belt). In 2023, they held Bailey Ober out of the rotation, which was far more egregious.
So the Twins could open the season with a rotation of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Woods Richardson or Festa—with the other being the first line of defense against injury. They’d also have Zebby Matthews on call and other high-minors pitchers like Cory Lewis, Andrew Morris, and Marco Raya if the straits become too dire.
This gambit might be getting too cute by half, and it could be argued that it’s time to hand the rotation over to the kids and reallocate those funds. At the same time, you can never have too much starting pitching depth.
Move Paddack to the Bullpen
What in tarnation? Paddack has a minimal history of bullpen work, coming out of the pen just five times in his MLB career. However, one was incredibly memorable: He recorded seven outs, struck out four, and allowed just one baserunner in Game 4 of the 2023 ALDS against Houston. He returned for the last couple of weeks of the season and pumped up his stuff in shorter bursts, and the stuff played.
It wasn’t all success for him, as he did have an appearance where he gave up three runs in two innings during the regular season, but it was only one of his four outings. Paring down his pitch mix to an upper-90s fastball, a good changeup, and one of his breaking pitches could be a recipe for success one or two innings at a time, and it’s a role he was preparing for if the Twins reached the postseason in 2024. The bullpen may be his best chance at success for the rest of his career.
Verily, he wouldn’t be expected to slot in among the top bullpen arms, at least until the team saw more from him. He’d also probably need some convincing, and if the team is worried about his salary as a starter, they’re definitely going to be wary of paying him $7.5 million to come out of the bullpen.
Trade Paddack
If the Twins don’t see him as worth the (admittedly paltry) sum he’s owed in the rotation or bullpen, the last resort would be to get rid of him. $7.5 million isn’t an unreasonable salary for one year of an up-and-down, injury-plagued pitcher still in his 20s with a bit of promise, but that figure means more to some teams than others.
What could the Twins get for Paddack? Well, probably not a ton. He doesn’t provide much in surplus value, though all teams value players differently, and some teams might be high on Paddack—seeing him as a tweak or a healthy stretch away from being a mid-rotation starter. As it stands, though, fans shouldn’t hold their breath on an exciting prospect package.
The club’s primary objective would probably be to find a team willing to take on Paddack’s salary and then decide amongst returns if there are multiple offers. They could run into another DeSclafani-Jorge Polanco situation in which a player from the other team, such as a first baseman or a right-handed platoon bat, is added to the deal to balance salary.
How do you want to see the Twins handle Chris Paddack in 2025? Tell us in the comments below. Yeehaw.
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