What are the Twins’ Toughest Arbitration Decisions?

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have 14 players eligible for arbitration this winter. Some decisions are much easier to make than others. Here are the team’s most challenging decisions among arbitration-eligible players.

Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball’s arbitration process has some aspects that can make the process confusing for the casual fan. Players become eligible for arbitration after completing almost least three years of service time but before the six years necessary to qualify for free agency. Players accumulate service time by spending time on their organization’s 26-man roster or big-league injured list. The player must reach 172 days to reach one full year of service.

Earlier this week, MLB Trade Rumors released its annual list of projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. The site uses a formula (developed by Matt Swartz) to compare and analyze players based on similar player types in previous arbitration cases. The totals below might be off compared to what the player actually receives in the arbitration process, but they should give a general overview of the decisions facing the Twins. 

The Twins have some easy decisions when it comes to arbitration. Some of the easy decisions include Bailey Ober ($4.3 million), Griffin Jax ($2.6 million), Joe Ryan ($3.8 million), Royce Lewis ($2.3 million), Trevor Larnach ($2.1 million), and Ryan Jeffers ($4.7 million). Those millions start to add up quickly, and the ownership group seems unlikely to alter the team’s payroll limitations for 2025. It’s expected that the Twins will have a payroll of around $130 million for the second consecutive season after cutting that amount by $30 million last winter. 

So, what arbitration decisions will be the toughest for the Twins?

Willi Castro, UTL
Projected Salary: $6.2 million
Castro was a first-time All-Star in 2024, and versatility became his calling card. He made 27 or more appearances in center field, left field, second base, third base, and shortstop. An argument could be made that he was the team’s MVP through the season’s midway point. According to FanGraphs, he has been worth $44.6 million to the Twins during his two seasons with the club. That might make it an easy decision to offer him arbitration. However, a team searching for more payroll flexibility, like the Twins, might decide to allow a cheaper player to fill Castro’s role next year. 

Jhoan Durán, RP
Projected Salary: $3.7 million
Duran’s decrease in velocity was a storyline throughout the 2024 season, including stretches where he was less effective. Minnesota’s current front office regime has avoided spending money on bullpen arms. This season, Caleb Thielbar was the team’s highest-paid reliever at $3.225 million. The Twins struggled to find reliable bullpen arms for the 2024 season, so it seems ludicrous to not bring Duran back for under $4 million. There’s a chance that the Twins might believe his struggles are signs of more significant issues that aren’t worth a gamble. Relievers tend to burn out quickly, especially those throwing triple digits regularly. 

Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF
Projected Salary: $1.8 million
Kirilloff struggled mightily during the 2024 campaign by hitting .201/.270/.384 (.653) with a 81 OPS+ in 57 games. The Twins have demoted Kirilloff in four consecutive seasons as he has tried to gain traction as a big-league regular. He’s battled through multiple wrist surgeries along with shoulder and back issues that have greatly impacted his performance. Kirilloff is entering his age-27 season and has played below a replacement-level player. The Twins have other options at first base and corner outfield that can produce at a higher level. It might make sense for the Twins to part ways with their former first-round pick. 

 

Justin Topa, RP
Projected Salary: $1.7 million
The Twins acquired Topa as part of the Jorge Polanco trade, and they hoped he’d provide the team with another late-inning bullpen option. Unfortunately, he suffered a knee injury during spring training that kept him off the field until late September. He made three scoreless appearances for the Twins, but the team had already fallen out of the playoff race. His long-term health will be the most significant factor in whether or not the Twins offer him arbitration. Minnesota’s bullpen struggled to find high-leverage options, so Topa could be a steal at under $2 million for 2025. 

Twins management is fortunate to have developed so many players who are performing at a high level during their arbitration-eligible seasons. But those performances can get increasingly expensive as players move towards free agency. With last year's budget cut expected to stay in place for 2025, some difficult decisions may need to be made. 

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Should the Twins offer arbitration to the above players? Is there anyone else who should be added to the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion.  

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[DJL44]

I expect all of these players to be tendered a contract. Some might get traded.

[Blyleven2011]

Castro has great value as a super utility player , I see his salary to high for the payroll so he will be traded and replaced with younger and cheaper players , the FO has no choice  if they are to keep the payroll around 130 million ...

Others have earned a raise , others have not  , it's what to do with the have not that the FO needs to do with them  ....

[Ricky Vaughn]

I agree with Blyleven2011, Castro will be signed and then traded.

[Jim wyllie]

I say trade Castro and kirilloff if possible.   Then keep the rest, and maybe listen to offers for larnach too.

[LambchoP]

I think Castro could be traded since they can replace his utility status with a cheaper Austin Martin. Kiriloff I think is done for,but they might give him one last chance this year if he's healthy. Duran and Topa are no trainers, we need all the pitching we can get. 

[Whitey333]

It's time to move on from Kiriloff.  Castro is getting too expensive for this organization.  But don't put too much stock on Fangraphs.  No way he's been worth even close to 44 mill the past two years.  Fangraphs always seems to over hype everything past reality.  The Twins are a mess right now.  Falvey and Rocco are locked at the hip. I suspect the Twins are looking at another 4th place finish in 2025.  Perhaps it's time to see if all these can't miss prospects can play.  They need to play full time.  Calling up prospects to only play half a game due to the strict platoon system kills their development.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Would another team trade for Durán and a $3.7M (or so) salary? If the answer is a relatively clear yes (and I think it is), then he's not a tough arbitration decision.

They'll pay him, and if they really think they can't afford either the "luxury" of a closer at that price or the risk of decline, then they'll look to trade him, and I expect some team would offer real value if Durán were available.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The only truly tough decision here is Castro.  He's a terrific player and probably worth the money he will be paid, but he may have priced himself out of the Twins' plans.  Topa is a bit of a who knows.  He has proven to be a good reliever in the past, but couldn't pitch at all this year for the Twins (yet somehow will get a raise?!?).  I can easily justify either way with him.  The Twins, who have access to all of his medicals, should have a better picture than I do.

The others. . . Kiriloff - DFA, we have several players in whom I have more faith to play first base/DH.  Duran - Not offering him arbitration would be baseball malpractice. Practically EVERY team in baseball would pay him $4M to be in their bullpen.

All of that said, with these and other players, there will be some trades this winter. 

[gman]

When Kirilloff is injured, the Twins have several players who can out hit him. When Kirilloff is healthy, I think only Lewis could out hit him, if he is healthy. So I would resign him easily. Castro has several possible replacements currently on the 40 man roster, so I would look to trade him.

Everybody else gets resigned and no free agents from other organizations are signed this  off season. Except for possibly a reliever.

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I think Castro could be traded since they can replace his utility status with a cheaper Austin Martin. Kiriloff I think is done for,but they might give him one last chance this year if he's healthy. Duran and Topa are no trainers, we need all the pitching we can get. 

Martin cannot play SS, 3B or RF like Castro. For that matter he can't play any position defensively as well as Castro. The utility guy is supposed to be on the team to catch the ball. I wouldn't use Martin as a defensive replacement for any position player on the team. The Twins need MORE defense, not less.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don’t agree with having Topa on this list. He isn’t at all a difficult decision if he is healthy

[Brandon]

The Twins are replacing Farmers 6 million with Castro’s 6 million so no need to trade him as we still have his 3 million from this season to carry forward for payroll next year.  

Killeroff is the big question mark.  I think he’s gone but the potential for value is still there and if the Twins could get him at 1.7 million  or even the 1.8 million projected it’s close enough to the league minimum that he’s worth one last gamble.  

Topa is the big question on the pitching staff but he too is close enough to the league minimum that he should be worth the risk.  
 

How is Duran even a question?  He’ll be back next year now the following year could be interesting…..🤔 

I imagine the Twins will push for Topa and Killeroff to sign before the tender date and if not their risk of being cut loose goes up.

[KirbyDome89]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Martin cannot play SS, 3B or RF like Castro. For that matter he can't play any position defensively as well as Castro. The utility guy is supposed to be on the team to catch the ball. I wouldn't use Martin as a defensive replacement for any position player on the team. The Twins need MORE defense, not less.

Castro was a below average defender at every position this season expect 3B, where he was just average. I'm not arguing that Martin looked particularly good defensively (he didn't) but most of Castro's value is his versatility not his actual defensive prowess. 

[ashbury]

It sickens me that it's even a discussion, due to right-sizing of the payroll.  In a better environment, just negotiate with them all and sign them for what you can, and let the arbitrator do their job on the rest.  Trade whoever doesn't quite fit your plans for next spring's roster.  Kirilloff is the only one I'd even think twice about tendering a contract offer.

Instead we're down to debating whether a modestly paid utility player is too rich for our blood.

I'm just about out.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

The Twins are replacing Farmers 6 million with Castro’s 6 million so no need to trade him as we still have his 3 million from this season to carry forward for payroll next year.  

Killeroff is the big question mark.  I think he’s gone but the potential for value is still there and if the Twins could get him at 1.7 million  or even the 1.8 million projected it’s close enough to the league minimum that he’s worth one last gamble.  

Topa is the big question on the pitching staff but he too is close enough to the league minimum that he should be worth the risk.  
 

How is Duran even a question?  He’ll be back next year now the following year could be interesting…..🤔 

I imagine the Twins will push for Topa and Killeroff to sign before the tender date and if not their risk of being cut loose goes up.

I think Kirilloff burnt goodwill when TC said you're sent down and he responded "am not I'm injured"

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

I think Kirilloff burnt goodwill when TC said you're sent down and he responded "am not I'm injured"

I agree.  I just wonder if the Twins will look the other way if they think he can produce with the bat for 400 AB in a season for the 1.8 million at a 115+ OPS rate next season.  If they think he can he will be signed for 1B saving 4 million.  If not he may be gone.  I agree with Nick that it is something to consider.  I give him a 50/50 odds.

[Linus]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

It sickens me that it's even a discussion, due to right-sizing of the payroll.  In a better environment just negotiate with them all and sign them for what you can, and let the arbitrator do their job on the rest.  Trade whoever doesn't quite fit your plans for next spring's roster.  Kirilloff is the only one I'd even think twice about.

Instead we're down to debating whether a modestly paid utility player is too rich for our blood.

I'm just about out.

This is where I’m at. These numbers are chicken feed in MLB. If you can’t pay a useful player like Castro $6 million just sell the team. 

[old nurse]

Any of these players could be traded if there was a decent return. For Topa and Kirilllof  the question would be does any team other than the Twins trade for oft injured players? Kirilloff may be offered the minimum with incentives and if he doesn’t take the offer he would be released. One decent season in 4 injury filled years should not make him more than a minimum contract

they traded for Topa, he is not going anywhere unless it is a great offer

If somebody offers a 5-10 type for Duran they would probably trade him. I don’t know how extensive of a pst season physical they get. Checking out the UCL should be something that is done. Velocity drops are the first sign of a problem.

Does the FO think that Lee and Martin showed enough that they could replace Castro? That would determine if they keep Castro. They still have to find a rh bat. Castro could be the swap

[Reptevia]

I suspect all the players up in the air will be traded or DFA’d. Payroll will be closer to $100M. Maybe…

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Castro was a below average defender at every position this season expect 3B, where he was just average. I'm not arguing that Martin looked particularly good defensively (he didn't) but most of Castro's value is his versatility not his actual defensive prowess. 

Castro was a below average CF. Martin was the worst CF in MLB. There's a big gap between them.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Reptevia said:

I suspect all the players up in the air will be traded or DFA’d. Payroll will be closer to $100M. Maybe…

If they are all let go, who goes on the 40-man roster? If they drop three or four players in order to pay major league minimum they are giving up before the season starts. 

[stringer bell]

6 hours ago, ashbury said:

It sickens me that it's even a discussion, due to right-sizing of the payroll.  In a better environment just negotiate with them all and sign them for what you can, and let the arbitrator do their job on the rest.  Trade whoever doesn't quite fit your plans for next spring's roster.  Kirilloff is the only one I'd even think twice about.

Instead we're down to debating whether a modestly paid utility player is too rich for our blood.

I'm just about out.

It makes it hard to be a fan. A year ago and even at midseason, it seemed like there was a chance to win this year and a pretty good immediate future. Now the club is voluntarily tying one hand behind their back. 

[twinfan]

I don't see Kiriloff, Castro (at that price), Larnach or Jeffers being with the Twins next season. However all are relatively cheap but so is management. Maybe Larnach if they can play him regularly which they can't. Jeffers has some value in a trade if we have another 2 catchers to play. I know nothing about Topa.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, twinfan said:

I don't see Kiriloff, Castro (at that price), Larnach or Jeffers being with the Twins next season. However all are relatively cheap but so is management. Maybe Larnach if they can play him regularly which they can't. Jeffers has some value in a trade if we have another 2 catchers to play. I know nothing about Topa.

We don't have any other catchers. Vazquez is the 4th worst hitter with 600+ PA in all of MLB over the past two years. Camargo had a wRC+ 76 performance in AAA last year. Probably be worse than Vazquez projecting that, to be honest.

Jeffers is going nowhere.

[jmlease1]

Kirilloff is the toughest one, because he's getting more expensive, hasn't produced, and is constantly injured. The cost seems marginal, but factored against production it's not that small of a number.

Castro is very interesting, but I feel confident that he gets tendered. I do think there's a real chance that he gets dealt; he's a player with actual trade value and I'm sure Twins management would like to drop his salary slot considering the self-imposed payroll limitations the dumb ownership has placed on the club.

Unless you're convinced that Topa won't be healthy again next season, then he's easily worth bringing back.

I'm baffled that anyone thinks that Duran is even a question. He's still a great reliever with elite capability to shorten games and the price isn't outrageous at all. He will get offered arbitration. Period.

[Doctor Wu]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Jeffers is going nowhere.

You got that right. And let's just hope he doesn't land on the IL next season either. Vasquez is a good backup but not sure if anyone from AAA can step up or not. 

[AKTwinsFan]

They need some new veteran bats. So hopefully Falvey is already working on that. Look at what the Royals did. I think foremost is bringing in some good hitting and base running coaches. Maybe replace Maki. 

[chpettit19]

I think the big question with all of them is who are their replacements? Ownership may not care about winning, but I promise you Falvey and Rocco do. Their jobs are on the line. Or, at least, should be. They aren't going to be given financial resources to improve the team, but they can't let it go backwards if they want to stay in MN.

There's no replacement for Duran so I'd think he's a pretty easy decision. They traded for Topa because of the extra control so I doubt he's going anywhere. Kiriloff and Castro comes down to whether or not they'll trust rookies. They haven't shown much willingness at all to open a season with a rookie on their opening day roster. Lee is the only one I remember as even being talked about as a possibility. If they aren't going to trust rookies the replacement for those 2 would be more flawed veterans. How flawed do the veterans have to be to sign them to a combined 7 or 8 million? Santana for 5 and a utility type for 3? A different veteran for 7 and Martin for darn near minimum? 

The pitchers seem like easy decisions, but the hitters are a tougher call depending on their willingness to go young to start a season.

[Fatbat]

Castro may be tendered a multi year contract.  He isn’t exactly replaceable until another young guy puts up numbers better than him.  AK is a prime bounce back candidate and mid season trade. 
Duran and Topa are both needed in the bullpen and deserve to make a few $M and they need to produce accordingly.