Why Aren’t the Minnesota Twins Giving DaShawn Keirsey Jr. a Chance?

[Cody Christie]

Byron Buxton’s injury has put added pressure on Austin Martin and Manuel Margot to perform in center field. So, why aren’t the Twins given DaShawn Kiersey Jr. a chance in the outfield?

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson (photo of DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.)

As the Minnesota Twins continue their pursuit of a division title, fans and analysts alike have begun to wonder about the future of certain players within the organization. One name that has surfaced in these discussions is DaShawn Keirsey Jr., a talented outfielder currently playing in the Twins' minor league system. Despite his promise and potential, Keirsey has not yet received a call-up to the major league roster. This begs the question: why aren't the Twins giving Keirsey a chance?

1. Current Roster Outfield Depth
The Twins' outfield is crowded, with established players like Manuel Margot, Max Kepler, and Matt Wallner and emerging talents such as Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin. The team also has Byron Buxton, a former Gold Glove winner, returning from injury and still a part of the outfield equation. This depth means new players have limited opportunities to break into the lineup.

2. Performance and Development Needs
Keirsey has shown promise in the minor leagues, but the Twins might feel he needs more time to develop his skills fully. His performance at Double-A and Triple-A has been solid over the last two years, but not necessarily eye-popping compared to other prospects within the organization. He posted a .821 OPS in 130 games last season and has raised that to .847 this year at Triple-A. The Twins may want more consistency from Keirsey, particularly at the plate, before promoting him to the big leagues. With the team in contention for the AL Central title, the Twins might prefer to rely on experienced players who have already proven themselves at the major league level.

3. Focus on Playoff Contention
As the Twins aim to secure a playoff spot, the team’s primary focus is on winning now. This often leads to a preference for veteran players or those who have previously played at the major league level and have demonstrated an ability to perform under pressure. The Twins might be hesitant to bring in an untested rookie like Keirsey in the middle of a pennant race, opting instead for players with a track record in high-stakes situations.

4. 40-Man Roster Considerations
Adding Keirsey to the major league roster would require a spot on the 40-man roster, a valuable and limited resource. The Twins must be strategic about using these spots, especially as they approach the offseason when decisions about protecting players from the Rule 5 draft come into play. Last winter, the Twins left Keirsey unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft and no teams selected him. Committing a roster spot to Keirsey could mean losing another player they value or someone who is more immediately ready to contribute.

While Keirsey might not be getting his shot right now, his time could still come. Continued strong performance in the minors, particularly in areas the Twins prioritize, like on-base percentage and defensive reliability, could force the team's hand. Additionally, if the Twins face injuries or other roster challenges, Keirsey might find himself in the big leagues sooner than expected. For now, however, the Twins are taking a cautious approach, balancing the development of their young players with the immediate needs of a team in contention.

Will Keirsey make his debut in 2024? Does he have a long-term role with the club? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Patzky]

Methinks you answered your own question!

[LewFordLives]

I can see him being added to the 40-man after the season ends. Presumably Kepler and Margot won't be back, which would create an opportunity for an outfielder.

[Doctor Wu]

18 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Methinks you answered your own question!

Exactly. Keirsey is having a very good season in AAA and is worthy of a look, but right now it's a numbers game, and the 40-man roster issue, as noted, is also a big reason. Even with Buxton on the IL, Martin and Margot are handling things reasonably well. plus the other called up outfielders like Larnach and Wallner are producing very well. So, unless another injury happens, I doubt we'll see Keirsey called up anytime soon.

[miracleb]

Keirsey was my choice over Margot to start the year.  Hitting might have been close to the same (as Margot,) but better outfield, better speed on the bases (pitch running,) and a heck of a lot cheaper!

 

[stringer bell]

41 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

I can see him being added to the 40-man after the season ends. Presumably Kepler and Margot won't be back, which would create an opportunity for an outfielder.

Why add him? He wasn't claimed last year and he's a year older. I don't know if the Twins will be able to keep Keirsey at AAA or if he can become a minor league free agent. I would assume that if he can become a free agent, he'll look for a better opportunity. 

[Blyleven2011]

Alot of past post on keirsey Jr  have said he's to old to be considered a prospect  , if he's still in the minors , that makes him a prospect  , maybe not a top prospect   , there have always been  players that have climb the ladder in the minors  and made the show on their late 30' or early 30's ....

If you look at his professional career  you will notice  alot of injuries disrupted  his early development  , but since he has been healthy for over 2 years , his development has been steady and it's worthy of a look see in the majors ...

He may not get a look see as a twin but he'll get his shot with a rebuilding or non-contender next year barring injury ...

WHY DO WE HOLD ON TO SOME GOOD PLAYERS IF WE'RE NOT GOING TO PLAY THEM IN THE MAJORS  ...

We let them walk for nothing when we could trade them when their value in high ...

The kid ( keirsey Jr) has promise just like arraez did when he wasn't considered a high  prospect and look how that turned out  ... 

[Fatbat]

He seems to be the next guy up behind a healthy Erod. Barring injuries this season, you wont see Kiersey Jr in MLB.  ‘25 he will get his shot if he is healthy and productive.

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

I think it's no more complicated than he hits lefthanded and making room for him meant removing an outfielder (Margot or Martin) that hits righthanded. 

[Rufus]

Looking at the 40 man roster it is possible that 10 to 11 spots will open up.  The question is who will they protect and what free agents will they sign?

[Stew]

Where does he play . Too many outfielders. Next year he will be up. Or if we  have more injuries.

[LambchoP]

Hopefully we protect him and give him a shot next year. Kepler, Margot and maybe Kiriloff won't be here next year... If he's not a part of the teams plans I'm sure they could have gotten something for him at the deadline with the numbers he's putting up 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

I think it's no more complicated than he hits lefthanded and making room for him meant removing an outfielder (Margot or Martin) that hits righthanded. 

Came here to say that.  Major omission from the article.  He's got CF skills but not stellar, and the Twins have always placed an emphasis on left-handed outfield bats.  So he's got Kepler, Wallner, Larnach in front of him, and which one of those do you drop just to give a rookie a chance?

If CF is the place for him in Buxton's absence, you'd have days where you're writing a lineup with 3 lefties in the outfield and the other one potentially at DH, putting additional strain on the platooning system when the opposing manager uses every lefty at his disposal in the pen - and yes Keirsey has typical platoon splits against LH pitching the past couple of years, like most players.

The fact Margot is on the roster is practically irrelevant to Keirsey.  Making a general observation about outfield depth only scratched the surface.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Came here to say that.  Major omission from the article.  He's got CF skills but not stellar, and the Twins have always placed an emphasis on left-handed outfield bats.  So he's got Kepler, Wallner, Larnach in front of him, and which one of those do you drop just to give a rookie a chance?

If CF is the place for him in Buxton's absence, you'd have days where you're writing a lineup with 3 lefties in the outfield (and the other one probably at DH), putting additional strain on the platooning system (and yes Keirsey has typical platoon splits against LH pitching, like most players).

The fact Margot is on the roster is practically irrelevant to Keirsey.

His OPS against righties is .867 this year. It's .801 against lefties. In only 5 fewer PAs than all Twins lefties have verse lefties combined this year. That doesn't mean the Twins would ever let him hit against lefties in the majors, but he doesn't have much platoon split at all this year.

Agree that Margot isn't taking his spot. Not because he should be irrelevant, but because they prefer to carry Farmer and Margot types who have horrid platoon splits against 75% of the league instead of just getting the best players.

I'm not sure Keirsey is good enough to play in the majors. He's older and not destroying AAA, instead is just doing really well. But I can't imagine he's a significantly worse all around player than Margot. Margot may be a -1 WAR player this year (currently -.7 bWAR). Him being on the roster is somewhat relevant to everyone. Carrying a negative WAR player for 144 PAs against lefties (to this point) is a bold strategy I'll never understand. And the Twins are carrying 2 (Farmer only has 75 PAs against them, actually). I'd say those roster spots effect everyone if the Twins are going to be obsessed with this platoon thing to the extent that they're willing to carry multiple worse than replacement level players for 300 total PAs against lefties.

[Doctor Gast]

SPs have much higher pressure in the postseason push than positional players, So why is it OK to bring up younger rookies Festa & Matthews to compete & not the older Keirsey? The priority was to get RHHs to face LHPs but during the season we had RHHs sit against LHPs & we didn't have enough LHHs to face the great majority of RHPs, we had RHH Martin (CF) to face RHPs far too often. 

Agreed that the 40-man roster spot is very valuable so why give one to Margot? Spend more money on an inferior product? Keirsey may not be eye-popping but he happens to be very good at hitting, power, fielding at premium position & base-running what more can you ask for? What can you say about Margot? He's ok against an occasional LHP. Margot is gone next year, we gain nothing from his playing time. While Keirsey's MLB experience could be very valuable as far his value even if he doesn't stay for the long term. LHH CFers are a premium, he's well worth the investment.

It would have been much better if we did not spend millions on Margot & blocked playing time for more deserving prospects. We needed another LHH in the line-up & CF sub in the OF especially when Castro was designated in the INF. I'm afraid that the most opportune time to call up Keirsey has passed, the return of Lee followed by Buxton, Correa will reduce his need & greatly reduce the needed time to get familiar with the MLB. Keirsey has very good potential, it's a shame that the Twins wouldn't trust his talents. An organization that can't trust its developmental process is sad especially when the economical situation calls for it.

 

[ashbury]

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

His OPS against righties is .867 this year. It's .801 against lefties. In only 5 fewer PAs than all Twins lefties have verse lefties combined this year. That doesn't mean the Twins would ever let him hit against lefties in the majors, but he doesn't have much platoon split at all this year.

Platoon splits fluctuate from year to year.  There's a visible split for him in 2024, even if you dismiss it as "not much".  Last year in AA the split was even larger.  Based on two years of data*, I'm reluctant to forecast he won't have a typical lefty's split differential if he were called up.  (Lefties have bigger splits than righties, on average, which I've never seen discussed but would be an interesting topic for another thread.)

Quote

I'm not sure Keirsey is good enough to play in the majors. He's older and not destroying AAA, instead is just doing really well.

I share this concern, actually.  This rule of thumb I use, of treating each level of baseball as ".100 harder" than the one below it for OPS, but young players gain .100 of OPS skill each year until 25, has me skeptical of OPS in the .800s at AAA being a likelihood of excellence in the majors - more likely an earmark of "he could contribute."  Subtract .100 from his .801 OPS against lefties this year, and now you're down in Margot territory, where the latter does have success in the same "he could contribute" department as well.  Add to that a concern that maybe we're seeing Keirsey's "career year" unfolding right now at age 27, and it seems like a risky move to replace Margot with Keirsey.  Subtract .100 from his numbers against righties, and he doesn't stack up well enough versus the guys in the majors to push one of them out either.

The one thing that keeps me optimistic, but uncertain, is his skill in CF.  As near as I can tell, he has CF skills, but probably not off-the-charts like Buxton (or MAT last year), and his arm in particular is only so-so for the position.  (Kind of like how I pigeonhole Austin Martin actually, except that Martin's ability to play 2B seems to be sufficient for the FO.)  That's not quite enough to offset the concerns about his bat.  But, if I'm underestimating his defense by even a little, then the AAA hitting numbers (adjusted for the majors) look like they do play.  For roster construction I treat "has CF skills" totally separate from "corner outfield."

All in all, I remain intrigued by giving Keirsey a chance, but am prepared for him to end up being another Jake Cave (an analogy offered by others at the site at times).

 

* In fairness, Keirsey's 2022 showed a mild reverse-split, OPS .717 vs .746, and ditto the year before that, .730 vs .742.  It doesn't change my view very much, partly because recent results matter more to me, ditto performance at higher levels in the minors.  But it certainly is part of his overall portfolio.  I would take a good scout's opinion from his eye-test over anything I can muster by sifting through the stats - on just about any player.  And that might be the actual final nail in the coffin, if the Twins' internal talent evaluators aren't telling the FO, "you gotta promote this guy."

[bean5302]

Keirsey didn't hit in AA in 2022. He didn't hit in AAA in 2023. Prior to the IL trip, Keirsey was raking, but there were signs of unsustainability with the highest BABIP of any sample size over 3 games (.370 BABIP), the highest ISO, the highest BB rate, etc. Everything was going his way, and then it all evaporated. Just looks like a flash in the pan to me, and probably to the Twins. He'd been struggling at the plate for 200 plate appearances after he returned from the IL on 6/22. His defensive metrics suggest he'll be adequate at CF, but certainly not a plus fielder at the MLB level.

Basically, Keirsey probably isn't as good as Austin Martin, and on top of that, he bats left handed. Even with his couple big games recently, since Keirsey returned from the IL on 6/22
.272/.339/.431 OPS .770 wRC+ 99 in the International League.
as of 3 days ago...
.257/.327/.388 OPS .715 wRC+ 86 BABIP .326

as of his first 199 PA after return through 8/17 one week ago?
.249/.317/.367 OPS .684 wRC+ 78 BABIP .310

If a player doesn't force their way onto an MLB roster by age 25, the chances they'll be a significant contributor in their career is low. Keirsey is already 27...

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If a player doesn't force their way onto an MLB roster by age 25, the chances they'll be a significant contributor in their career is low. Keirsey is already 27...

I don't think Keirsey will be a starter but he's probably worth having for the AAA shuttle, especially when Byron Buxton is the team's starting CF. Someone mentioned Jake Cave and that might be fair. Jake Cave has played over 500 games in MLB. I don't think they have added him because they want to use all 3 of his option years 2025-27 as a 15th or 16th position player on the roster.

[sun]

It seems like he hindered his own chances for promotion by getting injured which has nothing to do with his age. That & his left hand bat led the FO to put him on the back burner. It's not like the FO had a crystal ball when it planned for this season. If there's an injury to a left hand batting OF'er then maybe he'll get the call.  Right now he's just a square peg. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think Keirsey will be a starter but he's probably worth having for the AAA shuttle, especially when Byron Buxton is the team's starting CF. Someone mentioned Jake Cave and that might be fair. Jake Cave has played over 500 games in MLB. I don't think they have added him because they want to use all 3 of his option years 2025-27 as a 15th or 16th position player on the roster.

While I hope you're right that Keirsey can provide some IL backup relief for Buxton, I actually think it's probably a tall call to hope he'll be serviceable at the MLB level. I view Keirsey as more likely a slower version of Andrew Stevenson.

Cave is being undersold here. He made the big show at age 25 after having never had a single season at any level of below average plate production, including AAA at age 23 for NY. Cave had back to back seasons where he projected as a serviceable every day player for the Twins putting up 1.0 (1.6 WAR at 150G) and 1.1 (2.3 WAR at 150G) WAR in 2018-2019. That's consistent with the value Trevor Larnach has produced in his 2 best seasons.

[harmlessharmon]

I just finished watching the Twins/Cards game today.  Manuel "the rally killer" Margot is so unclutch.  Sure Julien blew it in the ninth, but watching Margot not come through for the 398th time this season is getting beyond frustrating.  When I saw him in the lineup today, I predicted almost exactly what would happen.  The good teams knew to steer clear of him after 2023.

[Doctor Gast]

Keirsey is a true CFer, Cave wasn't much good in CF. Bats might be similar. 

[RpR]

9 hours ago, miracleb said:

Keirsey was my choice over Margot to start the year.  Hitting might have been close to the same (as Margot,) but better outfield, better speed on the bases (pitch running,) and a heck of a lot cheaper!

 

Stevenson did very well in AAA last year but the Majors found all his weak spots.

[S Bart]

If Kepler's injury is validated, Keirsey will probably be added to the roster. It is amazing how many rookies have passed through the team during the last two years. I have followed the Twins since the mid-60's and can never recall this many appearing on the roster.

[cmoss84]

Yunior Severino. 

Switcher hitter. The question is...can he field a ground ball at 2B? 

[mikelink45]

As someone who posts - bring up Keirsey almost everyday - there is not one reason in the post that makes me change my mantra. 

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Yunior Severino. 

Switcher hitter. The question is...can he field a ground ball at 2B? 

He's worse at 2B than Julien.

[saviking]

Because he's another left-handed bat

[miracleb]

On 8/25/2024 at 5:58 PM, RpR said:

Stevenson did very well in AAA last year but the Majors found all his weak spots.

 

• Yeah...but we already knew Margot's weak spots....and most are weaker than Keirsey's......

[twinstalker]

I just skimmed so forgive...

I think this could signify they like Keirsey as a 5th OF (Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Keirsey) in 2025, but bringing him up this year could lead to losing him.  At the end of the season (or whenever earlier they know they won't have to expose him by dropping him off the 40) they can place him on the 40 and protect him from Rule V or six-year minor league free agency.  If for some reason they don't have room to put him on the 40 after the season, I think they'll be disappointed, but it's not going to keep them up at nights.