Make It Official! Twins 8, Mets 3: What This Team's Capable Of

[Theodore Tollefson]

The Mets outscored the Twins 17-2 over the first two games of their series in New York this week. On getaway day, the better team took its righteous revenge.
 

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Pablo López: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K (103 pitches, 66 strikes (64% strikes))
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (13), Matt Wallner (6) 
Top 3 WPA: Royce Lewis .100, Trevor Larnach .099, Byron Buxton .096

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Racking Up Runs in the Third
The Twins offense had been mostly absent in the first two games against the Mets, supplying only two runs in 18 innings. Fortunately, the bats woke up against Luis Severino Wednesday afternoon. It all kicked off with a solo home run from Byron Buxton in the second inning. Carlos Santana and Ryan Jeffers followed Buxton in the batting order, and both of them drew walks to try and get a rally going. Unfortunately, Brooks Lee grounded into a double play to end the frame, but unlike other days, the Twins would make up for the lost opportunity later. 

The top of the third was all about passing the baton to the next guy in the order. Austin Martin, Trevor Larnach, and Max Kepler hit back-to-back-to-back singles to start the inning, and put the Twins back in the lead 3-2. Royce Lewis kept things going, hitting an RBI double that scored Kepler, and Matt Wallner crushed a two-run homer, extending the lead 6-2. 

The six runs in the second and third combined were more than the Twins had scored since the fourth inning of their 5-0 victory over Detroit. 

López’s Composure Continues
Pablo López made his 22nd start of the year for the Twins on Wednesday. The first inning started out scary, as Francisco Lindor crushed a 97-MPH fastball to left field, but Larnach reached up for a catch that prevented Lindor from extra bases to start the game. López walked J.D. Martinez with two outs, but then got Pete Alonso on a groundout to avoid further damage. 

The second inning was the only portion of López’s start where the Mets got the better of him. With the Twins holding a 1-0 lead thanks to Buxton’s homer, Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil hit a bloop infield single over the head of Lewis at third. Then came red-hot third baseman Mark Vientos, who crushed a two-run homer off López to right field to give the Mets a 2-1 lead. 

Following the two-run shot from Vientos, however, López would go on to dominate over the next five innings, allowing only three baserunners on two walks and a hit and tallying six of his seven strikeouts.

This marks López’s fourth consecutive start of allowing two runs or fewer. The ace is dealing again. 

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The Dobnak Report
It took a few injuries, 267 ⅔ innings of work across 69 minor-league games and a grand total of 1,062 days, but Randy Dobank finally made his return to a major-league mound with the Twins in the eighth inning of Wednesday’s game. Dobnak retired the first batter he faced, Tyrone Taylor, on a slider that Taylor hit to Lewis for a groundout. Lindor was up next and hit a single up the middle, but Dobnak was able to bounce back and strike out Ben Gamel.

Unfortunately, Dobnak then did his least favorite thing on the mound: he allowed a walk to Martinez. But he got out of the inning unscathed, retiring Alonso on a groundout to Lee at short, and completed his first full inning of work in the majors in nearly three years.

Dobnak would not return for the ninth, as Jhoan Durán closed this one out, but the former undrafted free agent's scoreless frame brought his MLB career ERA down from 4.94 to 4.90. 

Other Notes
Kepler left the game in the bottom of the fifth, following an odd strikeout in the top of the fourth where he landed in front of home plate as he struck out swinging and was then hit in the back of the head by a throw from Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez, who threw out Lee attempting to steal second.

Kepler remained in the game for an inning but was taken out for precaution. It was later announced Kepler was removed due to a head injury on that throw, with more details to come on concussion tests and protocol.

The Twins hitters also keep getting hit by at least one pitch per game, of late. This afternoon, it was Buxton leading off the top of the eighth. He was nailed by an 83.7 MPH sinker from Phil Maton and gave the Twins their MLB-leading 75th hit-by-pitch on the season. 

What’s Next?
The Twins are off on Thursday but will return home for a quick three-game series against the Chicago White Sox this weekend. Joe Ryan will start for the Twins against Davis Martin of the White Sox, who will be making his first start in MLB since 2022. 
 

Postgame Interview 
Coming soon.

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[TFRazor]

With our luck, if you'd have asked me which twins player would strikeout swinging, then get thwacked in the head by a throw from the catcher, I'd assume it was either buck or lewis. That would quickly lead to a multiple week stay on the IL. Hopefully that teutonic noggin is ok.

[Doctor Gast]

Great game & great to have Dobber back.

[BH67]

Eighteen hours from "the sky is falling" to gleeful celebration. I'm used to that here, and so be it. A wise man once said that wisdom was proven right by its actions. After 107 games, there's been plenty enough wisdom shown to remain calm during a two-day power outage. And Pablo Lopez is rounding into the late-season form he showed a year ago alongside a dominant Bailey Ober. "Spahn and Sain," etc.

My biggest concern after this series is bullpen depth, which beyond Duran, Jax, Alcala and Sands runs a high risk for failure. Here's hoping Brock Stewart gets sufficient time to rest and recapture two miles per hour with better placement. And Varland, Festa and Dobnak may be part of the October pitching staff. Calamitatis et miseriae to more than a few here but not yet justified.

I remain happy that a team running at 70 percent of capability since the All-Star break is roughly .500 against some very good teams. The Twins will not last long or even get to October without better health and a deeper bullpen. But the wisdom shown to date justifies optimism, and perhaps more chicken soup with rally sausage.

[tony&rodney]

This game is a microcosm of how the Twins need to win. Good pitching supported by defense and an offense initially led by one of the veterans. Today it was Buck. Players like Buxton, Correa, Kepler, Santana, Margot, and Vazquez need help though. Today we saw how Larnach, Wallner, Lee, Lewis, and Martin contributed. This is how the Twins can win. Good game to travel home.

[UhhOK]

 Note: Lee was not thrown out after Kepler was plunked in the head. He was called out by the ump saying that Kepler interfered with the throw. Complete garbage BTW. That call could have major ramifications if catchers pick up on this tactic as batters walk across the plate after striking out. 

[darwin22]

Good W to finish road trip and to see bats finally wake up this afternoon.

Hopefully our players don't "assume" a sweep or series win against the White Sox as their due eventually to get a win to snap their brutal losing (17 game) streak.

Frustrating to see Stewart regression back to IL.  Missed his performance last night.  Did he have awful command?  Was his velocity down?  Definitely a RP we need down the stretch.  

Wondering how soon we might see Topa promoted from SP? Very short sample size as he's only made 2 appearances (2 scoreless IP) since being moved from Fort Myers to the Saints.

Difficult to count on him (or Stewart) at this point to be counted on to help our top 4 RPs, but since the front office FAILED miserably to acquire talent at the trade deadline, they are the main 2 that feasibly could deliver key IP over the last 2 months.

[TheLeviathan]

We'd have won this game if Rocco had traded for Cliff Lee yesterday.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

We'd have won this game if Rocco had traded for Cliff Lee yesterday.

Price was too high, Twins weren't one player from winning (I mean, good thing M&M didn't get hurt right after the team didn't add pitching), etc.....

[Craig Arko]

It will be good to get Correa back into the mix.

[BH67]

17 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Good W to finish road trip and to see bats finally wake up this afternoon.

Hopefully our players don't "assume" a sweep or series win against the White Sox as their due eventually to get a win to snap their brutal losing (17 game) streak.

Frustrating to see Stewart regression back to IL.  Missed his performance last night.  Did he have awful command?  Was his velocity down?  Definitely a RP we need down the stretch.  

Wondering how soon we might see Topa promoted from SP? Very short sample size as he's only made 2 appearances (2 scoreless IP) since being moved from Fort Myers to the Saints.

Difficult to count on him (or Stewart) at this point to be counted on to help our top 4 RPs, but since the front office FAILED miserably to acquire talent at the trade deadline, they are the main 2 that feasibly could deliver key IP over the last 2 months.

Three of the Marlins' top 12 prospects per MLB just arrived in a trade for a relief pitcher who will be a free agent at season's end. If the Padres had to spend that much to get Tanner Scott, the market price for a difference maker for the Twins' playoff run was prohibitive.

Falvine must make some prudent offseason trades given the surplus of talent now in the farm system. I'm skeptical that a fully healthy Twins team would marginally improve enough to justify such a price now.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, UhhOK said:

 Note: Lee was not thrown out after Kepler was plunked in the head. He was called out by the ump saying that Kepler interfered with the throw. Complete garbage BTW. That call could have major ramifications if catchers pick up on this tactic as batters walk across the plate after striking out. 

The way you have described it sounds like the umpire got it 100% correct. If the batter is out of the box and the catcher's throw had a reasonable chance to get the runner then the runner should be out due to Kepler's interference.

I watched the play

The umpire was 100% correct.

[Parfigliano]

Note to Kepler.....dont walk across the plate when the catcher has the ball and said ball is still in play

[tony&rodney]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The way you have described it sounds like the umpire got it 100% correct. If the batter is out of the box and the catcher's throw had a reasonable chance to get the runner then the runner should be out due to Kepler's interference.

I watched the play

The umpire was 100% correct.

I saw the play too and thank you for putting the video on for those who did not see the play.

The call is a judgment call, which means it was totally up to the umpire. I wouldn't argue too much on this as a manager or listen at length as an umpire, but the call could have gone the other way too. Either way, the umpire is right.

There was a somewhat more controversial call just a few minutes ago in the SEA-BOS game. Same deal, umpire ruled interference.

[UhhOK]

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The way you have described it sounds like the umpire got it 100% correct. If the batter is out of the box and the catcher's throw had a reasonable chance to get the runner then the runner should be out due to Kepler's interference.

I watched the play

The umpire was 100% correct.

How is Kepler supposed to know that the catcher is going to chuck the ball to 2nd from his knees when no one is stealing a base?  Plouffe thought it was ridiculous. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 minutes ago, UhhOK said:

How is Kepler supposed to know that the catcher is going to chuck the ball to 2nd from his knees when no one is stealing a base?  Plouffe thought it was ridiculous. 

Plouffe a homer?! No way!

[UhhOK]

I don’t know. Total delayed reaction from the catcher. Threw his hands up right away knowing what he was trying to do. Bigger homers than plouffe on the broadcast. 

[USAFChief]

52 minutes ago, UhhOK said:

How is Kepler supposed to know that the catcher is going to chuck the ball to 2nd from his knees when no one is stealing a base?  Plouffe thought it was ridiculous. 

It doesn't matter if Kepler knows or not. That's not relevant. Did Kepler interfere witha fielder making a play?

It's a judgement call. I'd have called it a dead ball, but I can understand the umpires judgement being different than mine.

 

[h2oface]

First catchers try to cheat by pretending a pitch is what it is not, and now throwing purposely at the retired batter when nobody is trying to steal. And at his head, no less (and umpire allows it and even rewards the behavior!) No scruples. 
 

Nice to get at least one in the win column in NYC. 
 

Is it just me, or do you notice that Duran is way too hittable these days, too?

[Parfigliano]

32 minutes ago, h2oface said:

First catchers try to cheat by pretending a pitch is what it is not, and now throwing purposely and the retired batter when nobody is trying to steal. And at his head, no less (and umpire allows it and even rewards the behavior!) No scruples. 
 

Nice to get at least one in the win column in NYC. 
 

Is it just me, or do you notice that Duran is way to hittable these days, too?

So far Duran is a lesser version of last year

[bean5302]

I thought we might finally stop hearing the writers of this site declaring Pablo Lopez "Ace" despite him never achieving full season results close to earning that title. As his ERA eclipsed 5.00 through the first half, the hype was just bottled up temporarily, and I was mistaken. A couple good starts, and the old ace moniker quickly gets dragged out of the cellar. I should have learned from the Byron Buxton MVP stuff I had to read for 9 years.

Nice to see the Twins avoid the sweep and stay 2 games up on Boston to avoid falling out of the playoffs. I'm glad Lopez pitched well, and I hope he can continue to outperform his abilities to give the Twins their best shot at making, and even advancing in the playoffs.

[dxpavelka]

All that without the benefit of a major deadline deal.  Whodathunkit?

 

[Doctor Gast]

I wasn't able to watch the game but as I went through the wrap-up, I made an observation. Luis Severino is a great SP just as good if not better against the Twins than the prior 2 LHPs. The key to the game was the 3rd inning which started with Martin. Up to this point, the Twins had been pretty flat against NYM & was behind. Martin could have struck out but he didn't, he could have stayed at 1B but he didn't, At 2B he scored easily on a single to LF. Fired-up Larnach stole 2B which also set up another run etc. etc etc. As I've said before Martin is a spark plug, if Martin struck out things would remain flat & nothing would have changed & Twins would probably lose the game. Martin has played sporadically & only against tough RHPs which is tough for any RHH player much less a rookie who is learning a new position on a MLB level. As a rookie he should be given only opportunities which help him advance in the MLB, which has not happened. Martin has had a tough row to hoe & he hasn't given up. Martin is a MLBer capable to impact this team with spectacular defensive plays, good ABs & spectacular base-running. Martin is worthy of our patience. He'll eventually settle in the MLB & stand out.

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I thought we might finally stop hearing the writers of this site declaring Pablo Lopez "Ace" despite him never achieving full season results close to earning that title. As his ERA eclipsed 5.00 through the first half, the hype was just bottled up temporarily, and I was mistaken. A couple good starts, and the old ace moniker quickly gets dragged out of the cellar. I should have learned from the Byron Buxton MVP stuff I had to read for 9 years.

Nice to see the Twins avoid the sweep and stay 2 games up on Boston to avoid falling out of the playoffs. I'm glad Lopez pitched well, and I hope he can continue to outperform his abilities to give the Twins their best shot at making, and even advancing in the playoffs.

Just because Lopez is outperforming YOUR expectation of his abilities doesn't mean he, the team or others in the fans base set the bar for him as low.  Many of us have faith in his ability perform at the level that landed him as the Cy Young runner up last year.

[jmlease1]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I thought we might finally stop hearing the writers of this site declaring Pablo Lopez "Ace" despite him never achieving full season results close to earning that title. As his ERA eclipsed 5.00 through the first half, the hype was just bottled up temporarily, and I was mistaken. A couple good starts, and the old ace moniker quickly gets dragged out of the cellar. I should have learned from the Byron Buxton MVP stuff I had to read for 9 years.

Nice to see the Twins avoid the sweep and stay 2 games up on Boston to avoid falling out of the playoffs. I'm glad Lopez pitched well, and I hope he can continue to outperform his abilities to give the Twins their best shot at making, and even advancing in the playoffs.

"I can't believe Twins fans would consider Pablo Lopez an ace after a season when he was a deserving all-star and finished 7th in Cy Young voting!"

Look, "ace" is a seriously undefined label that has a wide-range for people. Some people consider a #1 starter an ace, others only consider one of the top ten pitchers in the league to be an ace. Some people just look at dominance. Some people look at a guy that would be a top pitcher on most teams in the league who could pitch Game 1 of a playoff series and you'd be happy about that while the team you're facing would not to be an ace. Pablo meets a lot of these categories, even if he's struggled more at times this season than last year. (and looking at his FIP, he's probably been a little unlucky this year too)

But it's hardly crazy for Twins fans to look at Pablo Lopez and think of him as the team's ace.

[Whitey333]

Glad the Twins wone.  That was a nice game.  The previous two were awful.  I guess we are to be happy winning 1 of 3 games against a good team.  Twins are 23-32 against teams with winning records.  Good thing is we can take that one game win streak and parlay that into a 4 game win streak with a sweep of the lowly White Sox at home this weekend.  

[UhhOK]

17 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Note to Kepler.....dont walk across the plate when the catcher has the ball and said ball is still in play

Happens many times every single game. Watch every LH strikeout by a visiting team player. 

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Plouffe a homer?! No way!

106 Total

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, BH67 said:

Eighteen hours from "the sky is falling" to gleeful celebration. I'm used to that here, and so be it. A wise man once said that wisdom was proven right by its actions. After 107 games, there's been plenty enough wisdom shown to remain calm during a two-day power outage. And Pablo Lopez is rounding into the late-season form he showed a year ago alongside a dominant Bailey Ober. "Spahn and Sain," etc.

My biggest concern after this series is bullpen depth, which beyond Duran, Jax, Alcala and Sands runs a high risk for failure. Here's hoping Brock Stewart gets sufficient time to rest and recapture two miles per hour with better placement. And Varland, Festa and Dobnak may be part of the October pitching staff. Calamitatis et miseriae to more than a few here but not yet justified.

I remain happy that a team running at 70 percent of capability since the All-Star break is roughly .500 against some very good teams. The Twins will not last long or even get to October without better health and a deeper bullpen. But the wisdom shown to date justifies optimism, and perhaps more chicken soup with rally sausage.

Team loses 45% of the time,  so the sky is falling regularly……..am wondering additionally about Paddack for late September-October in the Pen, any updates on his health?

An aside - any Correa health updates?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

Glad the Twins wone.  That was a nice game.  The previous two were awful.  I guess we are to be happy winning 1 of 3 games against a good team.  Twins are 23-32 against teams with winning records.  Good thing is we can take that one game win streak and parlay that into a 4 game win streak with a sweep of the lowly White Sox at home this weekend.  

Road split of 6 games - not bad thing. Need some momentum build this weekend - agreed!