The Twins Should Swing Big

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins are good. Actually, they are really good, and the American League no longer is. Nobody seems to care, but that shouldn't stop the Twins front office from dangling some of their elite prospects to acquire a pitcher to put them over the top.

 

On the business side of things, the Twins are an absolute mess. Attendance is down, revenue is down, and while the TV contract situation got some encouraging news recently, it still looks horrifying for 2025 and beyond. Ownership has been tone deaf and making self-serving moves and proclamations, with little regard for the front office, team or fans. Like most private equity firms, they focus only on the short term while neglecting consumers and those who manage day to day operations.

What is important to note, however, is how good a job the baseball operations department has been doing the past few years. The farm system is the envy of baseball, the lineup has performed and the pitching has stayed remarkably healthy, even if it hasn’t reached the peaks of effectiveness like in 2023. This team is a dark horse for the pennant, and nobody seems to acknowledge it.

Last year, the Twins made noise in the playoffs, and this year have flown under the radar while maintaining the fourth best record in the American League. The lineup has been a force since mid April, the starting pitching has been serviceable, if rather unlucky, and the bullpen has several pieces it could turn to for the stretch run. Just like in 2023, when perhaps no bullpen could match the firepower of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Louis Varland, Caleb Thielbar, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan.

The top three remain the same, with the potential to add Varland back along with the emergence of Jorge Alcala as a sub 2.00 ERA demon from the right side. Justin Topa also exists, at least in theory.

The rotation could use some top end talent, but that is truly the team’s only flaw. But considering Pablo Lopez’s recent playoff track record, it may be the most minute flaw of any contender. Let’s review:

Baltimore: issues with lineup, rotation and bullpen.

New York Yankees: lineup depth issues, pitching has come back to earth

Seattle: Simply cannot hit

Houston: Patchwork rotation, could still be a threat if Justin Verlander returns strong

Cleveland: Lineup holes, no clear number two starter behind Tanner Bibee, who is not a clear number one.

Kansas City: Kind of like the Yankees with two elite hitters, but Sal Perez is no Aaron Judge and the supporting cast is even worse. Also they have a bad bullpen.

Milwaukee: Christian Yelich’s injury was the last thing they needed. No number two starter.

Philadelphia: Late game bullpen has been a sore spot. Addressed by trading for Carlos Estevez.

Atlanta: No depth. I told you.

LA Dodgers: Pitching issues. Evan Phillips has struggled, Walker Bueller hasn’t looked the same, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is questionable to return this year, and Clayton Kershaw just came back.

 

Some of these holes will be addressed at the deadline, but those acquisitions are an inexact science. Estevez looks like a perfect add for the Phillies, but the man has only pitched for the Rockies and Angels; who knows how he’ll react when presented with real pressure.

The point is that the Twins are in really, truly, great shape. The American League as a whole, is definitely not. There should be a buzz around the Twins but there are two roadblocks with that.

One, Twins fans and media never put the cart before the horse, and the national media has absolutely no idea why the Twins are even in playoff position.

Case in point, I listened to a couple of minutes of Jomboy Media’s Talkin Baseball podcast, where they examined why all the top teams were struggling. Team by team they listed flaws similar to what I mentioned above. When they got to the Twins, Jake Storiale, who suggested last year that the Blue Jays lose on purpose to face the Twins in the playoffs, described the Twins as “ssstruggling..?” Trevor Plouffe then reminded Storiale they just took two of three from the Phillies without their three best hitters.

I don’t blame Storiale, who is more informed on the Twins than most analysts. National baseball media cares about two things: cute stories and counting stats. The Twins were somewhat cute last year, with a bunch of rookies led by Royce Lewis announcing their arrival by breaking sports’ most nefarious curse. But there were no counting stats to be had, with Max Kepler leading the team with 24 home runs and 66 RBI. Lopez and Sonny Gray led the team with eleven wins each, while Jhoan Duran had 27 saves..

This year is more of the same but without the cute narrative. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana lead the team in home runs with 14, tied for 66th in baseball. The RBI lead is a tie between Jeffers, Correa and Santana, at 47, tied for 70th in baseball. Correa has a high batting average, but that seems fleeting with his injury, and if he misses another week of games, he may not qualify for the batting title. On the pitching side, Duran has come back to earth, while Ober and Joe Ryan have respectable but not attention worthy ERAs in the high threes. Lopez will need a monumental second half to get his ERA below four. They do, however, lead the league in strikeout rate as a pitching staff.

Counting stats are fun. We all remember Joe Mauer hitting .365 with 28 homers in 2009. We remember Brad Radke winning 20 games in 1997, and Johan Santana striking out 250 batters on an annual basis with a sub 3.00 ERA.

But even if no one on the team gets to 30 homers, and no starter has an ERA under 3.00, this team could easily be elite in offense and relief pitching. In basketball and football, the currency of trades is draft picks. In baseball, its prospects. Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brooks Lee and Zebby Matthews should all be in play to acquire either Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet. I’d lean towards Skubal with Crochet’s extension demands. Next year is next year, and payroll will likely drop even further. But Kepler and Kyle Farmer will drop off the books, so you should be able to lower payroll a bit and still get two shots at a title with a team that is elite in all three phases of the game.

The team will probably be terrible by 2028. That’s baseball in a small market, so let's go out in a blaze of glory.

 

 

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[CRF]

Very good article. 

[dxpavelka]

Sorry dude but as soon as you wrote that Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee & Matthews should be in play you lost all credibility.  You don't get better when your best players play for other teams.  Or your best prospects.  Some lines can't be crossed. End of story.

 

[Karbo]

If Stewart doesn't turn it around they have a questionable pen at best. As stands right now they have Duran, Jax, Alcala that are reliable with Sands being the biggest surprise so far. That's not going to cut it. They need help!

[Linus]

This FO has made it clear their overall goal is sustainable success. I highly doubt they trade any of our better prospects to take a stab at 2024. The time to add a good starter was last winter and we didn’t. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Rocco was critical to the headline but wasn’t even mentioned in the article

[wabene]

That media disruption dispersion money is nowhere to be seen. It may not make it this year or at all. This seriously limits what this team can/will do at the deadline, hence crickets....

[akmanak]

Lol, decent article but the owners care about one thing and that is money. There will be no significant trades.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Two teams have yet to make a trade. The Twins and the A's. 

Staumont's going to turn into a pumpkin and Stewart should still be on the IL. The bullpen's a glaring weakness at this point - even with Topa nearing a return.

SWR's got a bright future, but relying on him as the 4th starter and Festa / Paddack as the 5th starter in the middle of a pennant race is questionable at best.

The Pohlad's aren't serious about winning. It is what it is. There was every opportunity this season for the Twins to build off the momentum in 2023 and legitimately compete in a year where the American League lacks a truly dominant team.

Barring a miraculous run, the 2024 season will go down as one of the biggest disappointments in recent memory. The pennant was there for the taking and ownership was more concerned about pinching pennies. That's malpractice.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Additional context. I'm sure some will defend the Pohlad's but I can't bring myself to do it when literally every other team in baseball is doing something - whether its contenders shoring up their team for the stretch run or teams trying to rebuild for the future.

 

As noted, Oakland is one of two teams in the league to do exactly nothing thus far. The other is Minnesota. The Twins have spent much of the season in comfortable playoff position and are said to be working with payroll limitations (just as they were in the offseason), but their complete silence on the trade front is nevertheless surprising. Minnesota has been eyeing rental arms for the back of the rotation and could look for another outfield bat or reliever, but thus far the reigning AL Central champs have simply stood pat. They’re 5.5 games back of the division lead — a closeable gap in theory, but so far they’ve watched the Central-leading Guardians add Lane Thomas in a trade with the Nationals and the third-place Royals make multiple veteran acquisitions without doing anything to improve their own club.

[Patzky]

16 minutes ago, wabene said:

That media disruption dispersion money is nowhere to be seen. It may not make it this year or at all. This seriously limits what this team can/will do at the deadline, hence crickets....

Is that Jiminy Cricket (RP)?

[MinnInPa]

47 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Sorry dude but as soon as you wrote that Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee & Matthews should be in play you lost all credibility.  You don't get better when your best players play for other teams.  Or your best prospects.  Some lines can't be crossed. End of story.

 

agreed ...NO to all of these potential trade targets

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with Linus that we should have gone for a top-tier SP last winter. I disapproved of Twins advertising a fire sale (everyone will want a high discount). Gonzales should have been moved in a trade when he was worth more. I wouldn't go all out now by trading valuable prospects for questionable trade targets. There are some redundant high-ranking prospects we could trade but IMO the best deals are gone. My top trade target AJ Puk went off the boards right away who IMO was the best-buy. FO spent all available money this offseason on spots that could have been filled in-house. There are still some LHRPs out there but it'll come at a price. I don't see any reasonable top postseason SP out there now. Although I hate to see the Twins do nothing, I'd prefer that instead of them doing something stupid.

[HoskenPowell]

When they didn't jettison Farmer or Vasquez this winter/spring for more pitching you knew the writing was on the wall.

When they do sell , they will make tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars on the sale.  Yet these skin flint tight arsed owners won't spend diddly to improve this team.

The apple didn't fall one inch away from the original foreclosure specialist.

[Otaknam]

I strongly disagree on the notion of trading Jenkins or Rodriquez, both potential five tool impact players, for a short term starter. And probably not Lee, Mathews or Keaschall as well, though  it wouldn’t surprise me if Keaschall was traded today since infield is a position of depth. Other prospects further down would be OK if it solidifies the rotation. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

When the discussion pivots to trading Jenkins and Rodriguez, its moving the goal posts completely out of the stadium. I don't think anyone condones that especially because there's no one available that would justify such a dramatic trade. However, teams are making moves and they're not trading their top prospects. 

[Whitey333]

I too found the article interesting.  But I kept waiting for the Rocco Baldelli part of the story.  I also keep waiting for a story critiquing the Twins organization.  Not one of those nice, let's not hurt the Twins feelings story.  One thing g I'm not waiting for is the Twins to make any significant additions at the trade deadline.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

nvm

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Sorry dude but as soon as you wrote that Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee & Matthews should be in play you lost all credibility.  You don't get better when your best players play for other teams.  Or your best prospects.  Some lines can't be crossed. End of story.

 

Just because YOU don't like it, doesn't mean it's not credible.

You really think Skubal goes for LESS than one of those guys? He probably goes for two of those kinds of prospects at least.

I'm sure the Twins won't do it, and I'm not sure that I'd be interested, but it's more than a credible take.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Looks like the Twins heard Rocco!

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I wonder what the corresponding move is for Dobnak...

With Festa starting, and after the pen's usage last night, Dobnak makes sense.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Looks like the Twins heard Rocco!

 

Whoppeeeeee!!!

Just like making a trade!!1!

[Dman]

I don't know.  Last night against the Mets the Twins looked like they generally look in the playoffs.  Not much offense and a leaky pen.  That's too ,much to fix in one deadline on a payroll budget.

It looks like SWR might be tiring and need a couple weeks to refresh the arm and who knows what Paddack's status is coming off of TJ.  Festa is still learning at the MLB level and looks shaky.  Things look a bit worse than I thought, but I don't think a deadline addition is gonna fix enough problems to make this team a WS contender.

I think they might need to find a marginal starter or it looks like they might need to reach down for Dobnak and or Boushley for some starts at some point in last few months. Twins need this supposedly great offense to step up.

[strumdatjag]

The Tigers are not going to part with Skubal.    He is the #1 starter that they will build a rotation around.   

[Dman]

Just now, strumdatjag said:

The Tigers are not going to part with Skubal.    He is the #1 starter that they will build a rotation around.   

The just have to make sure they are willing to pay him when he reaches FA to they lose him for nothing.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Just because YOU don't like it, doesn't mean it's not credible.

You really think Skubal goes for LESS than one of those guys? He probably goes for two of those kinds of prospects at least.

I'm sure the Twins won't do it, and I'm not sure that I'd be interested, but it's more than a credible take.

It is not 'more than a credible take'.

The Twins have been pinching pennies for the last 6 months. How is it credible to suggest that they would suddenly do a complete 180 and trade their top prospect(s) for a pitcher that will command a huge raise in the off-season?

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

If the Yankees pick up Flaherty, the Twins should see what the price is for Nestor Cortes. He's been inconsistent for the Yankees but he's not owed much money the rest of the season and the Twins can cut ties after the season if they're concerned about arbitration. He's pitched in high-leverage spots before and a change in scenery might do him some good.

[Karbo]

5 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

The Tigers are not going to part with Skubal.    He is the #1 starter that they will build a rotation around.   

That's what I'm thinking. However, if they got a killer package... who knows?

[Dman]

17 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Looks like the Twins heard Rocco!

 

Given the Twin's were connected to the Rockies, Quantrill I guess that makes sense.  Why go after a guy with 6.4K\9 when you have someone cheaper in the system that might be able to do pretty much the same thing.

I watched Randy the last few games and his stuff still worries me. I don't know if he can keep all those balls on the ground directly to his fielders at the MLB level.  Looks like we are going to find out.

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

It is not 'more than a credible take'.

The Twins have been pinching pennies for the last 6 months. How is it credible to suggest that they would suddenly do a complete 180 and trade their top prospect(s) for a pitcher that will command a huge raise in the off-season?

 

I said that the Twins wouldn't do that trade. I was refuting the posters fairly offensive, and completely wrong take that those kinds of prospects are untouchable. We see these big block buster trades every other year or so with multiple top prospects being moved for a super star player.

And while I agree the Twins won't do this trade, and I'm not sure that I'd want to, in these mega prospect trades, the team getting the prospects loses about 90% of the time.