Make It Official! Twins 5, Phillies 4: Walkoff Win Finishes Homestand in Wild Style

[Theodore Tollefson]

The rubber match between the Twins and Phillies lined up as a rare bullpen game from the Twins rotation, against the stalwart Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Despite the lopsided pitching match-up on paper, this game had it all, with one last back-and-forth battle between the Twins and the best team in baseball to finish off the homestand.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika - USA Today Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Steven Okert 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K (14 pitches, 7 strikes (50% strikes))
Home Runs: Matt Wallner (4) 
Top 3 WPA: Carlos Santana .372, David Festa .180, Max Kepler .136 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Another Rookie Put to the Test 
Following the Twins' loss Tuesday night, the team announced Okert would be on the mound to start Wednesday's game as the opener. The plan was simple enough, on paper: have him face off against Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper in the first, then hand things off to Festa for the next 3-5 innings.

While it sounded easy, the results from Okert were less than ideal. He walked Schwarber to start the game, then gave up a single to Turner. Fortunately, he got Harper to fly out before further damage could occur. But that would be all from Okert, as Festa entered the game with runners on second and third and only one out.

Festa got the Twins out of a crisis by striking out Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh looking. The second inning was the biggest challenge of Festa’s career so far. Nick Castellanos laced a lead-off double to Byron Buxton to start the inning. The slender righty got the next hitter, Bryson Stott, out on a flyout, but walked the next two batters to set up a bases-loaded situation for the Phillies' leadoff man, Schwarber.

Schwarber is one of the three guys in the Phillies lineup Festa did not want to face with the bases loaded, as he’s hitting .300 on the season in these situations. In a second straight show of unflappability, though, he struck out both Schwarber and Turner.

Following the shaky second inning, Festa remained solid through the third and fourth innings, allowing only one runner, on an Alec Bohm double. However, the fun wouldn’t last forever for Festa. With one out in the fifth, Turner avenged himself for the earlier punchout, crushing an 0-1 fastball into the left-field bleachers to tie the game at 1-1. Festa struck out Harper to get the second out, but Bohm was pesky once more, getting another double off him and ending his day.

Despite the situation Festa entered the game with, he pitched a fairly solid 4 1/3 innings against the Phillies, allowing four hits, one run, and two walks. He struck out seven. Considering he entered the game in a jam, the Twins couldn’t ask for much more from Festa, who fared much better than his previous outing in the Majors on Jul. 3. 

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Wallner’s Reawakening Sparks Lineup
The Twins lineup was ice-cold on Tuesday, night and looked the same way the first time through the order on Wednesday. They were 1-for-5 with their first five batters, with only Buxton reaching base on a double in the first. Matt Wallner was the Twins' sixth man up in the order. He had never faced Aaron Nola before in his career, but he only needed one pitch to find what he liked.

Wallner got great extension on a swing and crushed the first pitch he saw from Nola, sending it 441 feet into the right-center field bleachers to give the Twins the first run of the game. However, Wallner’s homer would be the Twins' only significant offensive output until the bottom of the fifth.

The Twins mounted a one-out threat with back-to-back singles from Edouard Julien and Willi Castro, but any hopes of breaking the tie were cut short, as Trevor Larnach grounded into a double play to end the inning. 

The Bullpen After Festa
Caleb Thielbar was the first man out of the bullpen following Festa, taking the bulk of the outing from the Twins bullpen. He struck out the first batter he faced to get the Twins out of the bottom of the fifth, but the Phillies took their opportunities for the lead in the sixth off him. 

Thielbar gave up two singles and a sacrifice bunt to Johan Rojas, to set up runners on second and third for Schwarber. This time, the burly DH delivered, with a two-run single to center field that put the Phillies up 3-1.

The day was over for Thielbar after the sixth, and it was time for Brock Stewart’s first outing for the Twins since May 1. Stewart got his first batter via the strikeout, but walked the second batter and got a force out at second to set things up against Castellanos. No global event of the day was notable enough to power him up for a homer, but Castellanos hit an RBI single that scored Brandon Marsh from second to extend the Phillies' lead to 4-1. Fortunately, Stewart would have the final say against Castellanos, picking him off to end the inning. 

Mounting a Comeback
With two outs in the bottom of the sixth, the Twins were able to wear down Nola and mount a comeback. Carlos Santana got things started with a double, after which Wallner and Jeffers both drew walks to load the bases for Brooks Lee. The rookie battled against Nola, but struck out on a sinker up and away from him to keep the Phillies up 3-1.

This was the fourth time in the series the Twins had the bases loaded against the Phillies and left their runners stranded, but it wasn’t the last time they’d have a chance to make up for the lost opportunities.

With Orion Kerkering on the mound for the Phillies in the seventh, the Twins took the patience approach, drawing two one-out walks to get runners on for Byron Buxton. Buxton got hit by a pitch and loaded the bases for Max Kepler. The right fielder broke the Twins' bad streak of 0-for-4 with the bases loaded and hit into a fielder's choice that scored Castro.

The next at-bat, Santana drilled a bases-clearing double to left field to tie the game 4-4. Lefty Matt Strahm was on the mound to face Santana, and with Wallner due up next, he was pinch-hit for by bench bat extraordinaire Manuel Margot, who entered the game 0-for-23 as a pinch hitter. He extended this hitless drought to 0-for-24, flying out to right field to end the seventh. 

Tense Ending 
As the game entered the bottom of the eighth all tied up, the Twins had only four relievers left to use in their bullpen. Cole Sands retired the minimum on just 15 pitches, leaving himself available for another inning of work if the game remained square. Lee reached on a one-out single, and following a called strike three on Julien for the second out, he advanced to second on the first pitch in Castro’s at-bat. Castro, who’s struggled with runners in scoring position all year, continued those struggles, striking out on a bad pitch low and outside to end the eighth. For the fourth time in five games, the Twins would have to walk things off if they wanted to win the game.

Despite throwing 15 pitches, Sands did not remain in the game for the 9th. Those duties were handed off to Durán once again, to redeem himself from his outing on Tuesday night. 

Fortunately, Durán made up for his mistakes the night before, retiring Schwarber, Turner, and Harper on just 10 pitches. He not only gave himself a new boost of confidence, but (perhaps) juiced up his teammates a bit in the process.

Fortunately for the Twins, luck would be on their side to finish things off in the ninth. Larnach reached to lead things off, when a pitch just brushed his jersey, Austin Martin, who entered the game for Buxton, bunted Larnach over from second to third, and Kepler walked it all off with an RBI infield single to give the Twins a 5-4 win. 

The Twins are now 4-20 against teams with better records than them, as they finish off a massive series win against the Phillies.

What’s Next? 
The Twins are off on Thursday, but will begin a three-game series with the Tigers in Detroit at 5:40 p.m. Pablo Lopez will make the start for the Twins, while the Tigers have yet to announce their starter. 

Postgame Interview 

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

[Editor's Note: A previous version of this piece, published in error, included a reference to the visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Congress today. Some of my changes appear not to have been immediately reflected in the document. I suspect user error and apologize for the inadvertent controversy. At Twins Daily, we embrace and support the expression of free speech, but this lateral reference should not have appeared in the text of this piece for public consumption. Thank you. -MT]

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[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Hell of a win.  Also may take the edge off of absolutely needing a SP at the trade deadline.  Festa definitely looked serviceable today.   Hell of a game heck of a series with a lineup that had a lot of back ups in.  Sounds like Correa and Miranda are getting ready to come back.  We will see the status of Buxton, but he stayed on the basepaths, so likely nothing too serious.  Great job Twins.  

Edit: Even better, X-rays negative for Buxton and it seemed like it was not bothering him at all in the clubhouse.  

[Jocko87]

As expected.

[TheLeviathan]

We'd have won this game if Rocco didn't think Vasquez can play CF and Buxton is a good 2B.

Little known fact: Mosquitos would've been extinct 612 years ago had Rocco not overmanaged their population.

[BH67]

So…a team lacking its three most potent bats faces the most complete team in MLB. The Phillies’ first five batters are their preferred lineup for October. The Twins faced Suarez, Wheeler and Nola, arguably the Phillies’ most durable and consistent starting pitchers.

Castro and Julien made key infield errors. Duran had a baffling 9th inning in the second game. And the Twins still won two out of three.

Santana, Wallner, Ober, SWR and Festa are at the top of my “thank you” list, but this was a team effort, the manager included. For Holy Grail film fans, this was the Black Knight defeating King Arthur, and the amputated arms truly were just a flesh wound.

Let’s enjoy this even if we disagree with the team on platooning, using Margot as a pinch-hitter, or any number of things that could be done better in our minds. These guys are worth celebrating.
 

[MMMordabito]

Congrats to Kepler, as he tied the Twins all-time record for walk-offs.

[Vanimal46]

I had this series circled on my calendar for several weeks. The Twins proved they can hang with the best team in the league without Lewis, Correa, and Miranda. I am way more confident in the team’s outlook the rest of the season now. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I had this series circled on my calendar for several weeks. The Twins proved they can hang with the best team in the league without Lewis, Correa, and Miranda. I am way more confident in the team’s outlook the rest of the season now. 

And although they lost both to Milwaukee, those were such competitive games, could have gone either way. All with the team much less than full strength. Encouraging homestand, for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I was enjoying the win. And don't tell me to move on. If I posted something that was of the opposite viewpoint it would be immediately squashed. 

Yes it would.  Just as this was immediately squashed. It was a technical mistake that never should have made it through editing. 

[CharlieDee]

Love the bunt by Martin in the 9th.  I was shocked Rocco had him do it.

[Joe Schmitt]

To me the interesting thing about these two series that they played 2 of the top 5-6 teams in baseball and they were in every game.  All three losses were in extras or the 9th.  They could easily have swept these five games.  Without three of their best position players.

If those guys come back, and Stewart returns to being a solid member of the bullpen, this is a damned good team.  Damned good.

[Craig Arko]

I presume the next time this slot in the rotation comes up Festa will be the starter, rather than the long relief. Will be fun to see if he builds on this.

Barring a trade or signing, of course. 

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I presume the next time this slot in the rotation comes up Festa will be the starter, rather than the long relief. Will be fun to see if he builds on this.

Barring a trade or signing, of course. 

I like the idea of easing him in with an opener and Festa coming to clean up afterwards. We haven’t really used that strategy since Kohl Stewart and other young players I’m forgetting back in 2018. 

[LiamC]

13 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

If I posted something that was of the opposite viewpoint it would be immediately squashed. 

As this seems to have been as well. Mistakes happen ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Congrats to the Twins!! 2 out of 3 from the MLB-leading Phillies ain’t bad. Excited for our IL reinforcements to return! Also, if Duran pitches like he did today and Stewart returns to his pre-injury effectiveness (I thought he pitched mostly quite well today, with the exception of the walk, and even still was unlucky to give up a run) then I’ll start feeling a bit better about the pen!

[LiamC]

9 minutes ago, CharlieDee said:

Love the bunt by Martin in the 9th.  I was shocked Rocco had him do it.

I was interested to see the win probability of that play! According to MLB’s tracker, the successful sacrifice bunt increased MIN’s win probability from 80.7% to 83.0%.
 

Now I wonder what the swing would be the other way… I’m gonna go look some things up!

[Parfigliano]

Apparently I missed something regarding an earlier version of this post.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Apparently I missed something regarding an earlier version of this post.

All good,  just enjoy the win  😉.   Lots to be happy about. 

[1985Fan]

12 minutes ago, CharlieDee said:

Love the bunt by Martin in the 9th.  I was shocked Rocco had him do it.

Agree. I was shocked as well. Bunting Larnach to 3rd drew the infield in. Forcing their infield in gave Kepler a better chance at walkoff hit. Credit to him that he put the ball in play. 

[Randy Griffith]

All the Hit by Pitches absorbed by Twins hitters, especially from the hands of National League pitchers year after year, need to be addressed by MLB.  Otherwise, the unwritten rules of baseball dictate that we "protect our hitters" by plunking (unintentionally, of course) some of the opposing team's best hitters.  Our marquee players are spending too much time on the Injured List because of opposing pitcher egos.  That said, it was a great series win for the Twins.    

[LiamC]

16 minutes ago, LiamC said:

Now I wonder what the swing would be the other way… I’m gonna go look some things up!

So, I haven’t got a perfect source for the chances of a run scoring from each baseout state, but according to pre-2015 data from Retrosheet I found here https://tangotiger.net/re24.html, it looks like a (very roughly) 60ish% chance that at least one run scores with a runner on 2nd and no outs, 65ish% that a runner scores from 3rd with 1 out, and 40ish% that a runner scores from 2nd with one out. The 60 and 65 would roughly correspond with the win percentages MLB gave (50/50 if game is tied, Twins win if a run scores). Based on those numbers, it seems a sac bunt would have to be successful around 80% of the time to be worth it.

 

I also found an article that asked whether teams should bunt the ghost runner to third in extras (https://theanalyst.com/2023/03/should-mlb-teams-be-bunting-the-ghost-runner-to-third/#:~:text=The%20percentage%20of%20runners%20who,chosen%20to%20cut%20it%20loose.) and it suggested that doing might make sense! “The percentage of runners who have scored from second after a plate appearance with nobody out in innings one through nine is 64.3% when the team attempts to bunt and 58.8% when teams have chosen to cut it loose”.

[Brock Beauchamp]

21 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Apparently I missed something regarding an earlier version of this post.

We were calling you names. 

[Melissa]

I was prepared for a loss when I arrived at Target Field today, to be honest. Facing Nola with Okert et al. and a depleted lineup seemed a tough row to hoe (do we use that cliché in baseball?). We ended up outplaying the Fantastic Phils in the eighth and ninth. Duran was overpowering, and small ball took us home.

I was in section 120 and had a good view of the action. It seems Marsh got fooled on Santana’s long fly to left center that went for a two run double in the 8th. Gleeman has said recently that balls hit there this year seem to just miss going out, perhaps due to the construction of the skyscraper across 5th street alerting wind patterns (?).

[Mike Sixel]

Great job by Rocco and the players! In all five of these games w/o their three best hitters......

Wallner has the highest OPS of any currently playing player, btw.....Tied with Buxton of the healthy players in wrc+....

[Craig Arko]

2 minutes ago, Melissa said:

I was prepared for a loss when I arrived at Target Field today, to be honest. Facing Nola with Okert et al. and a depleted lineup seemed a tough row to hoe (do we use that cliché in baseball?). We ended up outplaying the Fantastic Phils in the eighth and ninth. Duran was overpowering, and small ball took us home.

I was in section 120 and had a good view of the action. It seems Marsh got fooled on Santana’s long fly to left center that went for a two run double in the 8th. Gleeman has said recently that balls hit there this year seem to just miss going out, perhaps due to the construction of the skyscraper across 5th street alerting wind patterns (?).

They’re waiting for the concrete to settle.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I like the idea of easing him in with an opener and Festa coming to clean up afterwards.

The idea is okay but it didn't help him today to come in with runners on base.

[darwin22]

Huge series win for the hometown team today!  

A few observations/thoughts with now only 61 games left:

1.  What happens with Brooks Lee when Miranda is activated?  After an excellent start, Lee has regressed over his last 10 games. Since July 10th, Lee is now in a 5-41 slump (.122 avg) with only 1 EBH. IMO, Lee could benefit from a SHORT reset in SP.

2.  How long of a leash does Julien have?  Very small sample size, I know, but since his recall he's 2-12 with 8K's.  Moreover, his defense leaves a lot to be desired.  Not advocating for Kyle Farmer when he's ready to come off IL, but Julien is not the answer--at least at this point in the season.

3.  With recent IL of Funderburk, Thielbar's continued struggles (season ERA at 6.20) and Okert being less than desirable, I would think that a LHRP has GOT TO BE at the top of the list at the trade deadline.

Now for some more positive comments:

1.  SP upgrade at deadline:  Still think is a priority but not as much as acquiring a good LHRP.  

Festa showed some significant improvement today.  Unsure what happens next time that slot in rotation comes up, but Festa, imo earned another start based on what he did today.

Adding on, in case anyone has missed it:  Varland has put together 2 back to back impressive start for SP. 11.67 IP/ 0 ER/ 4 hits/ 4 BB with 13K's.  Still like him as a bullpen option as its very uncertain to count on Stewart to remain healthy or hoping Topa progresses to the point he can contribute down the stretch.

2.  Don't want to jinx him, but Wallner looks VERY good at the plate recently.  If he can contribute anywhere close to what he did in the second half of 2023--thinks look much better.

3.  Carlos Santana:  Beyond his recent clutch hitting is his stellar play defensively at 1B.  Is it reasonable to start to consider re-signing him for next season?  I say "yes"

4.  Cole Sands:  Like comment on Wallner, I don't want to jinx him, but he's gone from..."OMG they're putting Sands in a close game," to now expecting him to thrive.  In case anyone has missed it--Sands in July has now pitched 10 scoreless IP in July with 13 Ks and 0 walks.  Very impressive and happy for him.  

Time to rest tomorrow and minds right to win a series this weekend against an improved DET team!

 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Huge series win for the hometown team today!  

A few observations/thoughts with now only 61 games left:

1.  What happens with Brooks Lee when Miranda is activated?  After an excellent start, Lee has regressed over his last 10 games. Since July 10th, Lee is now in a 5-41 slump (.122 avg) with only 1 EBH. IMO, Lee could benefit from a SHORT reset in SP.

2.  How long of a leash does Julien have?  Very small sample size, I know, but since his recall he's 2-12 with 8K's.  Moreover, his defense leaves a lot to be desired.  Not advocating for Kyle Farmer when he's ready to come off IL, but Julien is not the answer--at least at this point in the season.

3.  With recent IL of Funderburk, Thielbar's continued struggles (season ERA at 6.20) and Okert being less than desirable, I would think that a LHRP has GOT TO BE at the top of the list at the trade deadline.

Now for some more positive comments:

1.  SP upgrade at deadline:  Still think is a priority but not as much as acquiring a good LHRP.  

Festa showed some significant improvement today.  Unsure what happens next time that slot in rotation comes up, but Festa, imo earned another start based on what he did today.

Adding on, in case anyone has missed it:  Varland has put together 2 back to back impressive start for SP. 11.67 IP/ 0 ER/ 4 hits/ 4 BB with 13K's.  Still like him as a bullpen option as its very uncertain to count on Stewart to remain healthy or hoping Topa progresses to the point he can contribute down the stretch.

2.  Don't want to jinx him, but Wallner looks VERY good at the plate recently.  If he can contribute anywhere close to what he did in the second half of 2023--thinks look much better.

3.  Carlos Santana:  Beyond his recent clutch hitting is his stellar play defensively at 1B.  Is it reasonable to start to consider re-signing him for next season?  I say "yes"

4.  Cole Sands:  Like comment on Wallner, I don't want to jinx him, but he's gone from..."OMG they're putting Sands in a close game," to now expecting him to thrive.  In case anyone has missed it--Sands in July has now pitched 10 scoreless IP in July with 13 Ks and 0 walks.  Very impressive and happy for him.  

Time to rest tomorrow and minds right to win a series this weekend against an improved DET team!

 

 

 

 

 

I'm flabbergasted at Julien. He was the most likely (in my mind) player to play about the same as last year.....Jeffers is also in a slump, but he's still one of the better overall catchers for the year. 

Lee? Bummer of a slump, but when Lewis comes back, I put Lee at SS or 2B. If they want to send someone down, it's got to be Julien. the delta between AAA and MLB is (according to what you read on line) bigger now than ever. I'd just give Lee time right now....

[Doctor Gast]

Great homestand, something to get the fans excited. Maybe it'd motivate the Pohlads to loosen their purses. We can hope. This series with PHIL gives us confidence now that we can compete with the best even when we aren't close to 100%. 

[Patzky]

56 minutes ago, CharlieDee said:

Love the bunt by Martin in the 9th.  I was shocked Rocco had him do it.

He isn't the most talented fella out there but he seems to be involved in key plays quite often considering how little he's used. I hope Buck's ok, however.

[Doctor Gast]

23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

We were calling you names. 

I stuck up for you,  Parfigliano