Should the Twins Consider Trading for Mason Miller?

[Matthew Taylor]

The Oakland Athletics are rumored to be shopping their star, young, flame-throwing reliever, Mason Miller. How interested should the Minnesota Twins be? 

Image courtesy of © Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

 

In the first two months of the young MLB season, A's closer Mason Miller has been one of the most exciting young players in the league. In 26 innings this season, Miller has an ERA of 2.08 with a FIP of 0.85. Yes, a FIP of 0.85. 

Apart from just the results, Miller also has arguably the best stuff of any reliever in baseball, pairing a triple-digit fastball with a devastating slider to create a two-pitch arsenal that is striking out batters at a video game rate of 51.5%. Additionally, Miller leads all relievers in fWAR at 1.4 and is top-10 in Win Probability Added.

With the Oakland Athletics franchise in complete turmoil until they complete their move to Las Vegas, they will be hearing out trade packages this deadline and seeing if now is the time to move their stud reliever, when his trade value will never be higher. 

Should the Twins be interested? This potential move comes with benefits and significant drawbacks that the Twins must carefully weigh.

Miller, with his elite stuff, could elevate the Twins' bullpen from good to great. This kind of bullpen strength is invaluable in the playoffs, where games often hinge on late-inning performances.

Pairing him with Jhoan Duran, who has already proven to be an elite reliever, and the excellent Griffin Jax and (hopefully, soon) Brock Stewart, the Twins could create one of the most formidable late-game bullpens in baseball. Additionally, acquiring a cost-controlled, high-impact player like Miller might be one of the few moves that Twins’ ownership would be willing to sign off on.

We saw this offseason that payroll is a huge point of contention for this ownership group. With the television deal in flux even more now than it was last season, payroll is unlikely to rise. Miller, being a rookie, would be under team control for several years, providing significant value on a minimum contract. The Twins likely won’t be able to be in the market to trade for a veteran like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. simply because they won’t be willing to pay whatever part of his contract is remaining. Miller will be one of the few players that would both provide value and that the Twins would be able to “afford."

However, acquiring Miller will undoubtedly require a substantial package of prospects. According to Ken Rosenthal, a Miller package would need to include  “a young player of comparable ability, or a substantial package of multiple youngsters who could be part of the A's future."

The Twins have a strong farm system, but parting with top-tier talent always carries risk. A deal for Miller would likely need to include two top-100 prospects plus another prospect or two. That's a lot to give up for a reliever.

Historically, relievers do not provide the same level of value as starters or position players. They pitch fewer innings, and their impact, while significant, is limited to specific high-leverage situations. Overpaying for a reliever can be detrimental. The Twins must consider whether the potential upgrade in the bullpen justifies the cost in prospect capital.

There is also the matter of Miller's health record. Prior to this year, he had been used as a starter, but the A's moved him to the bullpen in part because they wanted to see if he could stay healthy for a full year. In his four-year professional career, he's never topped the combined 52 2/3 innings he hit last year in the minors and majors. 

The decision to trade for Miller is not straightforward. On one hand, his addition could transform the Twins' bullpen into one of the most feared units in baseball, giving them a significant edge in the postseason. On the other hand, the cost in prospect capital and the inherent risks associated with relievers make this a gamble that the Twins must consider carefully.

Given the Twins' financial constraints and their current playoff aspirations, Miller represents a unique opportunity to add an impact piece without spending money on it. However, with the prospect capital required and the ridiculous amount of risk involved in acquiring a reliever, it’s not worth it.

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What do you think? Should the Twins make a move for Mason Miller? Leave a comment below and join the conversation!

 

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[Doctor Wu]

You pretty much said it:

the cost in prospect capital and the inherent risks associated with relievers make this a gamble that the Twins must consider carefully.

I would so no to this idea, not only because it would cost the Twins several valuable prospects, but our history of acquiring relief pitchers is mixed to mediocre. A tempting idea, but I wouldn't be too tempted. 

[jimmyc]

Never invest a lot of trade capital in a reliever.

[Whitey333]

I agree.  We should not trade for him.  But I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins made the move.  Why?  Well because he is a pitcher with injury issues.  The Twins seem to love to trade for these types of players then whine when they go down to injury.  Plus they seem to enjoy getting hosed big time when trading prospects for questionable and injured talent.  I'm sure teams like the Reds and Orioles appreciate us lol.   No trade for this guy please.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It’s all about the cost.  If it’s for one of our many not quite there youngish corner guys like Kirilloff or Larnach, maybe. But for more than that or multiple, I say no. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I would advise any FO to read "Moneyball" before trading to Oakland for a reliever. 

[Eris]

A failed starter turned reliever who is lights out for the first half of the season and whom the selling team wants half of the farm. I have seen this before. Oakland will win this trade just like Baltimore did in 2022. 

[Otaknam]

This click bait idea only makes sense if Miller is the missing piece for a serious WORLD series run. But this team has too many lineup holes, and has star quality player like Buxton and Lewis who are injury prone. So they are not a serious playoff contender. Also the management has a history of trading for injury prone pitchers, so there is that.

[Otaknam]

31 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

I agree.  We should not trade for him.  But I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins made the move.  Why?  Well because he is a pitcher with injury issues.  The Twins seem to love to trade for these types of players then whine when they go down to injury.  Plus they seem to enjoy getting hosed big time when trading prospects for questionable and injured talent.  I'm sure teams like the Reds and Orioles appreciate us lol.   No trade for this guy please.

The front office doesn’t whine about trading for injured pitchers. They stay VERY QUIET!

[Karbo]

It would depend on what has to be given up IMO.

[TopGunn#22]

It always comes down to cost.  I will say this...Miller has a power arm that few in baseball can match.  He's not some "one hit wonder" like Javier Lopez was.  He's already pitched 26 innings this year, so he's going to blow past that 52 and 2/3 innings high he set last year.  He's also got 52 K's in 26 innings.  FIFTY TWO !!  That's 2 K's per inning.  Again, the stuff is incredible.

So what would it REALLY cost?  Kirilloff or Larnach aren't getting this deal done.  Maybe one of them could be a throw in but certainly not a centerpiece.  I don't go to Baseball Trade Values anymore because I can't see paying for a site I would visit around the Winter Meetings and MLB Trade Deadline all year long.  But this is an example where a site like that could come in handy.

Would Eddy Julien and Kirilloff/Larnach get it done?  Would Emmanuel Rodriguez straight up get it done?  Or Brooks Lee?  Mason Miller is the real deal and as a rookie,  he'd be a Twin for several years.  With the depth the Twins have in their system, a deal could be done.  At some point there will be a crossroads with Julien/Lee.  At some point, you may not be able to get enough AB's for Jenkins/E-Rod/Gonzalez/Wallner.  The Twins already have issues with Kirilloff/Larnach/Wallner.  With position players you run into log-jams like this.  With a pitcher, you don't.  We could survive a trade of Julien for example with a talent like Brooks Lee, or E-Rod with a Jenkins or Gonzalez (or a Winokour).  Would Jose Miranda be in the mix?  Mason Miller would have an immediate positive impact.  

So what would the deal be?  Julien & Wallner?  Julien & Kirilloff?  Julien & Gonzalez?  I'd do any one of those three to get an arm like Mason Miller.  And consider this:  Miller wouldn't HAVE to remain a closer.  He could be eased into the starting rotation.  Name me 5 guys that have a BETTER arm with better STUFF than this kid.  We've had all sorts of discussions about possibly moving Duran back into a starting role.  Why not Mason Miller? 

I write this more as a counterpoint than as an ironclad endorsement of making a trade.  I wouldn't just discount this idea with zero consideration.  Mason Miller is a heck of a talent.  What would be the cost to make a trade?   

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, jimmyc said:

Never invest a lot of trade capital in a reliever.

Especially one who cant stay healthy.  Some sucker will take him.  Dont be that sucker.

[Fatbat]

Someone will over pay. Hopefully its not our FO. If its a fair deal, go for it!

[stringer bell]

Given the Twins recent history trading for and signing relief pitchers, I’d say no. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

23 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It always comes down to cost.  I will say this...Miller has a power arm that few in baseball can match.  He's not some "one hit wonder" like Javier Lopez was.  He's already pitched 26 innings this year, so he's going to blow past that 52 and 2/3 innings high he set last year.  He's also got 52 K's in 26 innings.  FIFTY TWO !!  That's 2 K's per inning.  Again, the stuff is incredible.

So what would it REALLY cost?  Kirilloff or Larnach aren't getting this deal done.  Maybe one of them could be a throw in but certainly not a centerpiece.  I don't go to Baseball Trade Values anymore because I can't see paying for a site I would visit around the Winter Meetings and MLB Trade Deadline all year long.  But this is an example where a site like that could come in handy.

Would Eddy Julien and Kirilloff/Larnach get it done?  Would Emmanuel Rodriguez straight up get it done?  Or Brooks Lee?  Mason Miller is the real deal and as a rookie,  he'd be a Twin for several years.  With the depth the Twins have in their system, a deal could be done.  At some point there will be a crossroads with Julien/Lee.  At some point, you may not be able to get enough AB's for Jenkins/E-Rod/Gonzalez/Wallner.  The Twins already have issues with Kirilloff/Larnach/Wallner.  With position players you run into log-jams like this.  With a pitcher, you don't.  We could survive a trade of Julien for example with a talent like Brooks Lee, or E-Rod with a Jenkins or Gonzalez (or a Winokour).  Would Jose Miranda be in the mix?  Mason Miller would have an immediate positive impact.  

So what would the deal be?  Julien & Wallner?  Julien & Kirilloff?  Julien & Gonzalez?  I'd do any one of those three to get an arm like Mason Miller.  And consider this:  Miller wouldn't HAVE to remain a closer.  He could be eased into the starting rotation.  Name me 5 guys that have a BETTER arm with better STUFF than this kid.  We've had all sorts of discussions about possibly moving Duran back into a starting role.  Why not Mason Miller? 

I write this more as a counterpoint than as an ironclad endorsement of making a trade.  I wouldn't just discount this idea with zero consideration.  Mason Miller is a heck of a talent.  What would be the cost to make a trade?   

I wasn’t suggesting that Larnach or Kirilloff would get the job done, only that that was as far as I would be willing to go for a relief pitcher in return.  I agree that it will take more but Julien or ERod is a bridge much too far or me. 

[LambchoP]

It all depends on how much we'd have to give up. Keep in mind, he's already injury prone, and young guys throwing 100 plus are most likely going to need tommy John at some point, not to mention to volatility of relievers from year to year. That said ittd be nice to have a cheap closer locked in for a lot of years.

[Patzky]

Throw in Blackburn and let's talk.

[tony&rodney]

Always worth a conversation and phone call. The A's want young players? Gonzalez and Raya enough? It seems like nobody knows what the A's want in any possible trades. Asking cannot hurt.

[Jeff K]

I wouldn't do it for numerous reasons; many already stated.  I think there could be a bidding war (Orioles) and the Twins will have to overpay.  I also don't think Duran would view this as a vote of confidence.  Maybe that shouldn't matter, but you have to consider how moves play in the locker room.  Lastly, the Twins need to consider making moves to improve their hitting first.

[Guest]

I'd prefer the Twins try to copy the A's in finding and developing guys like Miller.  Trading for Miller now is the very definition of buying high, and the antithesis of this FO's strategy for finding relievers (see, B. Stewart).

[Brandon]

If Oakland is trading a rookie reliever for prospects I would go so far as to trade the OF we got from Seattle, Raya, and maybe Cole Sands for Miller tops.  

[ashbury]

60-day IL last year, May to September, with "forearm tightness".  Mild UCL sprain.  Mild, I tell you.  Nope, no red flags there.  None at all.  😀

[IndianaTwin]

Sure, the Twins should consider trading for Mason Miller. 

But I don't think they should consider it after they hear what the asking price is likely to be.

[Mike Sixel]

No. 

[tony&rodney]

We don't know the ask. Right? People on this site want to plug in Brooks Lee at second base and send down Julien. If the Twins think Lee is their future guy at the keystone, that makes Julien expendable. 

Naturally, one should avoid trading prospects like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, and David Festa. It always makes sense to find out what is the required return for a guy like Miller. The Twins missed on another Miller because of excessive caution last offseason. That's fine if the demands are beyond the ability of the Twins level of risk. Just ask and find out, which I guess we never hear even if the phone calls are made and information exchanged.

[Doctor Gast]

9 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It always comes down to cost.  I will say this...Miller has a power arm that few in baseball can match.  He's not some "one hit wonder" like Javier Lopez was.  He's already pitched 26 innings this year, so he's going to blow past that 52 and 2/3 innings high he set last year.  He's also got 52 K's in 26 innings.  FIFTY TWO !!  That's 2 K's per inning.  Again, the stuff is incredible.

So what would it REALLY cost?  Kirilloff or Larnach aren't getting this deal done.  Maybe one of them could be a throw in but certainly not a centerpiece.  I don't go to Baseball Trade Values anymore because I can't see paying for a site I would visit around the Winter Meetings and MLB Trade Deadline all year long.  But this is an example where a site like that could come in handy.

Would Eddy Julien and Kirilloff/Larnach get it done?  Would Emmanuel Rodriguez straight up get it done?  Or Brooks Lee?  Mason Miller is the real deal and as a rookie,  he'd be a Twin for several years.  With the depth the Twins have in their system, a deal could be done.  At some point there will be a crossroads with Julien/Lee.  At some point, you may not be able to get enough AB's for Jenkins/E-Rod/Gonzalez/Wallner.  The Twins already have issues with Kirilloff/Larnach/Wallner.  With position players you run into log-jams like this.  With a pitcher, you don't.  We could survive a trade of Julien for example with a talent like Brooks Lee, or E-Rod with a Jenkins or Gonzalez (or a Winokour).  Would Jose Miranda be in the mix?  Mason Miller would have an immediate positive impact.  

So what would the deal be?  Julien & Wallner?  Julien & Kirilloff?  Julien & Gonzalez?  I'd do any one of those three to get an arm like Mason Miller.  And consider this:  Miller wouldn't HAVE to remain a closer.  He could be eased into the starting rotation.  Name me 5 guys that have a BETTER arm with better STUFF than this kid.  We've had all sorts of discussions about possibly moving Duran back into a starting role.  Why not Mason Miller? 

I write this more as a counterpoint than as an ironclad endorsement of making a trade.  I wouldn't just discount this idea with zero consideration.  Mason Miller is a heck of a talent.  What would be the cost to make a trade?   

I wouldn't do it but. It'd take a lot, for my friends here is a couple examples. Julien straight up plus a throw in according to BTV.

Athletics

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Emmanuel Rodriguez	OF	22.1
Gabriel Gonzalez	OF	11.0
David Festa	SP	8.7
Tanner Schobel	SS	8.0

Total Value: 49.8

49.80

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Mason Miller	RP	47.8

Total Value:

47.80

 

If OAK does sell there'll be a lot of competion so knowing OAK, they'll won't sell unless they get moon. IMO we'll be fine with Duran, Steward, Jax, Varland & Canterino

[SotaSports in NM]

Maybe it's me being closed minded, but I didn't even read the article. It's just a hard no. We don't need him, especially when healthy, and any prospect capital should go to starting pitching or offense. 

[DocBauer]

Relievers are a volatile sort generally speaking. Miller is only a rookie, no matter how good he's looked so far, who's thrown and "proven" himself for all of 26 innings this season. He's had an injury history including some forearm tightness and throws 100mph. 

Hey, I'm intrigued, and he's obviously got a lot of potential. But I'm not spending a lot for a reliever who's a rookie after 26 IP and an injury history. 

Do we already have a Miller type in Varland who might be in the pen come September, and might not ever leave? And then we have Stewart back at some point. Alcala is being used the right way. Add that to Duran and Jax and maybe, just maybe Canterino at some point. I'm only interested if acquiring him involves players outside our top 10. 

[KBJ1]

Much as I'd love to see the Twins get a top reliever, I would have to say NO to this.

Maybe a proven veteran without an injury history ( are there any these days).

Alcala has finally taken the biggest steps in his career the last two weeks. So maybe there is finally a Silver lining to one of our many failed pitching  trades.

But trading top notch Capitol for a 26 inning flash in the pan is asking for trouble, even if the fiscal pricetag is cheap.

[jorgenswest]

44 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

We don't know the ask. Right? People on this site want to plug in Brooks Lee at second base and send down Julien. If the Twins think Lee is their future guy at the keystone, that makes Julien expendable. 

If Julien returns to form and Lee is ready there is space for both.

46 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

It always makes sense to find out what is the required return for a guy like Miller.

Concur.

47 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins missed on another Miller because of excessive caution last offseason.

I will bite. I can’t think of a Miller who was moved last off season that the Twins missed on and could have won the bid. Maybe you are referring to Bryce. I think the Seattle Times reported that DiPoto was not looking to trade Miller or Woo. Sometimes that is smoke but neither guy moved so I am guessing it would have taken a huge overpay.