Is Matt Wallner Still a Viable MLB Bat?

[Cody Schoenmann]

How long should the Minnesota Twins' leash be with their homegrown, local, 26-year-old, power-hitting sophomore corner outfielder?

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, Twins outfielder Matt Wallner impressed everyone in his third stint in MLB, hitting .636/.714/1.000 with seven hits, one home run, and one double, a .364 Isolated Power (ISO), 0% strikeout rate, and 366 wRC+ over 14 plate appearances from May 23-28. Wallner's breakout was short-lived, though, as the team optioned the red-hot power-hitting corner outfielder to Triple-A St. Paul to activate fellow left-handed hitting outfielder Max Kepler off the 10-day injured list. The Forest Lake native spent two more months at Triple-A before returning to MLB in mid-July. The then-25-year-old would get rewarded with his first extended look with the parent club.

Wallner didn't skip a beat, hitting .250/.351/.563 with eight hits, three home runs, one double, a .313 ISO, and 151 wRC+ over 38 plate appearances. Wallner's strikeout rate did jump to 35.1% in his return to the majors. Still, with the young outfielder producing at a 51% better than league-average clip, the Twins were understandably forgiving of the young outfielder's tendency to swing and miss. Wallner continued to hit well over the next two weeks, posting a 141 wRC+ and hitting three home runs (including a walk-off homer off Arizona Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald) in 35 plate appearances.

Wallner excelled, and began to look like a potential fixture in the Twins lineup for seasons to come. Then, he endured his first real test in "The Show." After his heroic walk-off home run against Arizona, the burly slugger hit .175/.299/.404 with 10 hits over 67 plate appearances. Despite continuing to manufacture an alarming 35.8% strikeout rate while watching his wRC+ drop to a below-league-average 97, Wallner continued hitting for power, smashing three more long balls over this stretch. Luckily for the Twins and Wallner, his skid quickly resided, and he hit .284/.411/.514 with 21 hits, four home runs, five doubles, a .230 ISO, a slightly more manageable 31.1% strikeout rate, and a well-above-average 157 wRC+. 

Wallner appeared to get his groove back just in time for his first postseason appearance. Alas: baseball makes fools of believers. Between the Wild Card Series against the Toronto Blue Jays and the ALDS against the Houston Astros, Wallner netted zero hits, three walks, and struck out eight times over 12 plate appearances. Being effectively non-present in the Twins' first extended playoff run in over 19 years, Wallner likely entered the offseason with a bitter taste in his mouth and a desire to show why he became one of the main contributors to what was arguably the best rookie class in Twins history. Unfortunately, he has yet to alleviate that wistful feeling three weeks into the 2024 season.

In his first 31 plate appearances, Wallner is hitting .083/.258/.250 with two hits, one double, one home run, a 51.6% strikeout rate, and a 60 wRC+. Looking at Wallner's stat line, the one silver lining is the one home run. However, that home run came off a 61 MPH slider from Detroit Tigers utility infielder Zach McKinstry. Wallner's striking out in over half his plate appearances has led those who follow the team to compare him to former Twins strikeout-prone left-handed hitting outfielder Joey Gallo. However, hitting a home run off a position player is the icing on the cake. Now, I don't mean to be unabashedly rude to Wallner, and the comparisons to Gallo are likely premature and unfair (right?), but the 26-year-old looks uncompetitive at the plate and a shell of the force he was as a rookie last season.

With Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Royce Lewis, and Brooks Lee on the 10-day injured list and fellow left-handed hitting corner outfielder Trevor Larnach still on a rehab assignment for a turf toe diagnosis that sidelined to begin the season, the Twins have a finite number of MLB-caliber position players available to them. Yunior Severino and Emmanuel Rodriguez are the only other players on the 40-man roster the Twins could promote to the parent club. Although promoting Rodríguez to the majors is tempting, he needs to continue developing in the minors for now. Severino cannot play the outfield, and his 36.1% strikeout rate at St. Paul doesn't bode well for the 24-year-old to string together more productive at-bats than Wallner in the majors. 

Kepler's stint on the 10-day IL and Wallner's inability to produce at the plate have forced the Twins to rely primarily on Manuel Margot and Austin Martin in the corner outfield. Although the contact-skilled righties have filled in adequately, the Twins lack pop out of two positions expected to be primary sources of power entering the season. With Larnach nearing a return from his rehab assignment, the Twins could have a natural one-for-one replacement for Wallner if he continues to put together uncompetitive at-bats. Needing to demote Wallner to Triple-A less than one month into the season would mark a new level of uncertainty about the value of a player who was almost a cornerstone coming into spring training. However, the Minnesota native's lackluster performance could leave the club's decision-makers no choice. 

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[AWOLNATION_11]

I'd see about signing Brandon Belt at this point.  With Kirilloff logging OF time and Santana at 1B, there are DH reps. 

[chpettit19]

Wallner has a massive hole covering the entire inner third of the plate, but especially down and in. He can't hit those pitches. And once you get him focused on trying to hit those inner third pitches you drop something soft down and away and he's finished. Houston did their scouting before the ALDS against the Twins and showed the world how you get him out. This season has just been pitcher after pitcher saying "it's coming inner third, hit it if you can" over and over and he can't hit it. The league adjusted. He's miles away from adjusting back. From the sounds of it he knew this would be a problem and spent the offseason putting in work to try to close that hole. It hasn't worked. AAA is probably the place for him the second Larnach or Lee or anyone is ready.

[Dman]

There was always noise in Wallner's numbers last season.  The level of competition dropped off for the Twins the last half of last year and his tendencies at the MLB level were more of an unknown. I think pitchers know how to better work him now.

No one seems to work harder than Wallner in the batting cage, but for a guy who supposedly spends a lot of time there you would think his K rate would be better.  That being said Wallner has been a slow starter before.  Let's give him some time to work through things before demoting him two weeks into the season.

[Kenny Powers]

I mean...even with a very slow start to this season, he still holds a .813 career OPS at the MLB level.  Granted, it's only 295 ABs.  But, my point is you have to give some of these young guys a little leash.  He's only had 25 ABs so far this season.  Once he gets to 100 ABs, then maybe I'll start to worry more.  But as of now, literally a couple good games will completely turnaround his stats, so - not a big deal IMO.  Buxton, Kepler, Farmer, Santana, Castro all need to get their bats going too.

[Riverbrian]

Yes he is still a viable major league bat... his kind of power doesn't grow on trees... just not at the moment. 

He may have to go down to find himself if he doesn't start figuring it out... much like Miranda last season. I'd say not yet but maybe at the end of the month if he doesn't start putting more balls in play by the time May rolls around.  

17 K's in 33 PA's is a real bad start for a player with options remaining. We don't have to tolerate it if it continues. 

Just not yet in my opinion.  

[danielp19653]

I put Wallner in the same spot as Miranda at this point, they should be in AAA until they prove again they shouldn't be. Neither plays defense well enough to make up for hitting slumps and neither has been anywhere close to consistent enough to think they should be playing on a team that isn't planning on finishing last in a division. Obviously injuries have made it where those decisions have mostly been taken away as we need bodies, but unless they get hot before some IL time ends I don't see a reason to stick with either.

[Doctor Gast]

Wallner has the raw tools to be an all-star. But the Twins only focused on trying to squeeze out a few more HRs while ignoring working on his defense & ability to make contact. Twins broadcasted very loudly that they were doubling down on the "all or nothing" approach & the league pitching was well prepared for them. The approach that helped kill Sano's career

Year	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	OPS
2024 Regular Season	33	6	9	0	1	0	.273	.385	.718

What I noticed is that Sano has 0 HRs & decent BA & OBP. That shows me that LAA has focused entirely on Sano's problem of not making contact & got away from hitting HRs. 

[NotAboutWinning]

Earlier today the Strib had an article on Wallner being demoted and Larnach called up. Now the link isn't working. Anyone else see anything about this?

[Road trip]

 

4 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

I mean...even with a very slow start to this season, he still holds a .813 career OPS at the MLB level.  Granted, it's only 295 ABs.  But, my point is you have to give some of these young guys a little leash.  He's only had 25 ABs so far this season.  Once he gets to 100 ABs, then maybe I'll start to worry more.  But as of now, literally a couple good games will completely turnaround his stats, so - not a big deal IMO.  Buxton, Kepler, Farmer, Santana, Castro all need to get their bats going too.

The important part is bolded.  Wallner has been very bad, in the smallest of small sample sizes.  His playing time has been very irregular at best which probably hasn't helped his timing.  Two at bats here, one at bat there.  He might need a AAA trip to get right, but it is way to early to question his potential to adjust.

On the other hand, Rocco is playing the 38 year old Carlos Santana for a full game EVERY SINGLE DAY.  Wallner's OPS is .513, which is bad.  In twice as many plate appearances Santana is at .378, a number that many pitchers could achieve when they were allowed to hit.  Santana is done.  Dumped by the Royals, Pirates, Mariners, and Brewers, everyone in the league knew it, but our genius front office on a tight budget gave him $5 million when they could have just resigned Solano for a fraction of that cost. 

Wallner is one of many problems in the Twins offense.  Unfortunately he is nowhere near the top problem.

[Peter]

Need to send him down to st Paul to get his swing/confidence back-

[MABB1959]

Half of the line-up should be sent down or on the bench!  Is there really no one in AAA close to ready?  If that is the case it is going to be a bad few seasons.

[Bamboo Bat]

The clickbait title of this article is ridiculous. The body is more reasonable. Also saw that Larnach is coming up & considering how lost Wallner looks, it's the right decision. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

27 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

I mean...even with a very slow start to this season, he still holds a .813 career OPS at the MLB level.  Granted, it's only 295 ABs.  But, my point is you have to give some of these young guys a little leash.  He's only had 25 ABs so far this season.  Once he gets to 100 ABs, then maybe I'll start to worry more.  But as of now, literally a couple good games will completely turnaround his stats, so - not a big deal IMO.  Buxton, Kepler, Farmer, Santana, Castro all need to get their bats going too.

Agreed.  The sample size is too small to mean very much at this point.  Give him another month or so to straighten himself out.  There are several other players who also need to fix things for the Twins to realize their potential.  Unfortunately between injuries and ineffectiveness, there isn’t really anyone in St. Paul that would be much help at this point.  

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Has the Larnach transaction been confirmed? 

As for Wallner, the book is out on him. It happens. Up to him to make the necessary adjustments. Why those adjustments aren't being made, we know the answer.

[Patzky]

42 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Earlier today the Strib had an article on Wallner being demoted and Larnach called up. Now the link isn't working. Anyone else see anything about this?

Last I looked Larnach was looking for his first hit as well. Be careful what you wish for..

[CRF]

He's not the only guy doing zero at the plate. He's got plenty of company. Are you going to send the whole damn team to StP? I wouldn't give up on Wallner yet. If they keep yanking him in and out of the lineup, he's never going to adjust and figure it out. Sometimes, you just have to let these young guys take their lumps and learn what they need to do to stay in the majors. We're less than three weeks into the season, give it some time. 

[Whitey333]

At least Larnach has some proven decent major league results.  Wallner?  Not so much.  The Twins really screw up with some of their younger talent.  I feel bad for guys like Wàllner and Larnach.  Wallner looks totally lost at the plate right now

[Azviking101]

Amazing how he can look the way he did last year after getting coached up by the AAA staff and then look like this after a full offseason with the MLB staff

dump Popkins and co and you have your fix 

[Azviking101]

18 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

At least Larnach has some proven decent major league results.  Wallner?  Not so much.  The Twins really screw up with some of their younger talent.  I feel bad for guys like Wàllner and Larnach.  Wallner looks totally lost at the plate right now

What stats are you looking at? Wallner has a career ops over .800 and was incredible last year 

Larnach doesn't even have a .700 ops

It’s obviously Wallner has been ruined to start the season by the coaching staff. 

[bean5302]

I'm a big fan of Wallner and I think he has what it takes to be a force at the plate over the long haul, but I think he's lost his confidence. He's had some real BS calls go against him, and he was already struggling to begin with. He honestly looks like a bit like a deer in the headlights sometimes at this point, unable to make decisions.

Many good MLB hitters have holes at the plate (I mean, if you're not named Barry Bonds or Mike Trout). Wallner's had 33 pretty sporadic plate appearances thanks to Rocco Baldelli, Platoon Mastermind, but Wallner's issues stretch back into Spring Training. Wallner stands practically over the top of the plate, which is great for HBP fueled OBP, but lousy for him being able to drive inside pitches.

He's missed on a few balls right down the middle, which is not typical for him. That's stuff he always swung at and always punished last year. I'm not sure if he can just back off the friggen plate by 2" and make the inside pitches more into heart of the plate pitches, but I can't imagine it could hurt him.

MLB won't wait for him to get his head back on straight and get the short memory skill he needs to acquire, and Baldelli doesn't have any faith in him so he's between a rock and a hard place.

[big dog]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Wallner has the raw tools to be an all-star. But the Twins only focused on trying to squeeze out a few more HRs while ignoring working on his defense & ability to make contact. Twins broadcasted very loudly that they were doubling down on the "all or nothing" approach & the league pitching was well prepared for them. The approach that helped kill Sano's career

Year	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	OPS
2024 Regular Season	33	6	9	0	1	0	.273	.385	.718

What I noticed is that Sano has 0 HRs & decent BA & OBP. That shows me that LAA has focused entirely on Sano's problem of not making contact & got away from hitting HRs. 

If you want to believe anything from this sample size, let's also note Sano has struck out in 36% of his plate appearances. That's the second-highest rate of his career. I'd say efforts to fix the "not making contact" part aren't working, although he does seem to have gotten away from hitting HRs.

I'd still take Wallner.

[Azviking101]

21 minutes ago, CRF said:

He's not the only guy doing zero at the plate. He's got plenty of company. Are you going to send the whole damn team to StP? I wouldn't give up on Wallner yet. If they keep yanking him in and out of the lineup, he's never going to adjust and figure it out. Sometimes, you just have to let these young guys take their lumps and learn what they need to do to stay in the majors. We're less than three weeks into the season, give it some time. 

Thank you. Everyone keeps focusing on one or two guys when everybody save for 2 or 3 guys looks awful. Seems pretty easy to me to blame the coaching staff for the preparation and direction

[Linus]

And we are excited about Larnach taking his place?  Not me. At this point I would put Martin in left and see if he can provide a little spark. 

[farmerguychris]

Sure he's still a viable MLB bat - but like probably most good hitters, the league is throwing him things he has trouble with - as they should.  Send him down and work on improving his weaknesses.  When he has that done, bring him back up and we'll certainly find a spot for him.  Seems pretty straightforward to me.  Now if he was out of options, whole different question.

[mikelink45]

Let's not make moves too quickly.  Larnach has been tried over and over and found wanting.  He is hitting 182 in the minors and some think he should be brought up?  How many ABs did Kelly say were needed to truly measure a players skills?  

Santana is much more of a problem and our clean up hitter Farmer is not going well.  Castro and Buxton are not hitting and Margot has not been exciting.  

Why are we singling out Wallner at this time?  

[Schmoeman5]

42 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Last I looked Larnach was looking for his first hit as well. Be careful what you wish for..

Really? His 1st hit where?

[Schmoeman5]

18 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Let's not make moves too quickly.  Larnach has been tried over and over and found wanting.  He is hitting 182 in the minors and some think he should be brought up?  How many ABs did Kelly say were needed to truly measure a players skills?  

Santana is much more of a problem and our clean up hitter Farmer is not going well.  Castro and Buxton are not hitting and Margot has not been exciting.  

Why are we singling out Wallner at this time?  

They aren't singling out Wallner. He has options. No competition in spring training. How's that working out?

[FlyingFinn]

Yes, Wallner is a viable bat. But look at his minor league career, at his first 50 AB's each year. Except for one year, he is a slow starter. Would we be okay if he doesn't hit great in his first 50 AB's (he's far from great right now). He heats up with the weather.

Because of his poor ST numbers, I even pondered if the Twins should start him out with the Saints and most on TD thought I was nuts. I do think he needs to go to the Saints but bring him back up when he heats up (and works on his weak area as others have stated).

[Beast]

He’s a viable MLB bat the same way Gallo is a viable MLB bat.  Most here wanted Gallo banished from the team, but believe Wallner to be a potential fixture for years to come.  That doesn’t compute.  Matt Wallner is the bad version (not the MVP candidate version) of Gallo with less defensive acumen/flexibility.  There will be some highs at the plate where he hits some HRs in bunches, but they are short lived.  The lows are about as bad as it gets as a professional hitter and can absolutely derail the lineup.

Oh, and getting lucky and catching the Blue Jays playing like dog crap in a play in series before getting our butts removed, gift wrapped, and handed to us by Houston in the actual playoffs is an “extended playoff run?”