Dodgers 4, Twins 2: Resurgent Ober and Buxton's Heroics Not Enough Against Dodgers

[Hans Birkeland]

After being dinked and dunked to death by the scrappy Guardians, the Minnesota Twins had the bad fortune of facing a team with real hitting talent and a high payroll to boot. While Bailey Ober was very effective, the offense was again (largely) sleepwalking through the game, and this time, the bullpen didn't bail them out.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (68 Pitches, 43 Strikes, 63.2%)
Home Runs: Manuel Margot (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jay Jackson (-.286), Carlos Correa (-.130), Ryan Jeffers (-.093)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

After a weekend of ruminating about strikeout totals and Bailey Ober tipping his pitches, the Twins had to shake off any lingering doubts about themselves, because the most star-powered roster in baseball rolled into town. The LA Dodgers boast a lineup of three MVPs and future Hall of Famers at the top; perhaps the best all-around catcher in baseball, in Will Smith; the power of Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernández; and some young star potential in James Outman and Gavin Lux, for good measure. Taylor Trammell also plays for them.

The Twins turned to Ober, who had just given up eight earned runs to the Royals. They featured a lineup averaging three runs per game in the early going. They started José Miranda at third base, and no one is quite sure why, since Twins officials have publicly labeled Miranda as a first baseman and DH. He didn't look bad, though, taking some good at-bats while not being a factor defensively.

The day started disturbingly, as Mookie Betts took a pitch in the zone that was called ball four (that evened out with Betts on the short end of several calls later on). Shohei Ohtani then scorched a double over Byron Buxton's head, and Freddie Freeman hit a sacrifice fly to one of the deepest parts of the park, on which Buxton made an incredible play (more to come on that). Surprisingly, Ober settled down from there, retiring the next two hitters fairly easily, showing a nice changeup and cutter, with his fastball showing a bit of arm-side run. In fact, he retired the next nine hitters following Ohtani's double, with very little hard contact.

James Paxton was on the mound for the Dodgers, and looked okay at first. Twins fans might remember the "Big Maple" from his outing in Game One of the 2019 ALDS, in which he briefly gave the Twins hope with a fairly shaky start. Today, he gave up a single to Manuel Margot, who was curiously put in the leadoff spot, and then had Carlos Correa and Ryan Jeffers just miss hittable fastballs before striking out Buxton on an elevated heater.

He, too, cruised through the second inning, but he ran into some trouble at a surprising point in the Twins lineup. He walked Austin Martin and then served up a no-doubt home run to Margot, perhaps revitalized by facing the team that gave up on him in favor of Enrique Hernández just a few weeks ago. It was a hanging slider from Paxton that came across as a cutter via Statcast. Regardless, he didn't throw the pitch again.

Ober danced around some trouble in the fourth, including two singles and a walk, but looked in control regardless. He used his new cutter much more often than his slider and got a lot of weak contact with it, including striking out Betts with it to end his outing. It's worth noting that Ober had one of his best starts against the Dodgers in LA last year, going six innings and not allowing a run until Michael A. Taylor dropped a fly ball in Ober's final inning.

The Twins started letting Paxton off the hook following Margot's home run, making outs early in counts that resulted in some quick innings. Ober also had an efficient outing, but was removed after the fifth at 68 pitches. The reasoning was that lefties Ohtani and Freeman were due up, but my counterpoint is that it doesn't really matter who you throw against those two, as Steven Okert isn't making them adjust their approach or anything.

Three soft hits later and the game was tied. It stayed that way for a while, thanks to this catch.

The Twins were not able to add on, however, and that is not a sustainable strategy against the Dodgers. Jay Jackson came in to pitch the seventh, and hung two sliders for homers, one to Outman for the lead and then Ohtani for the insurance.

The Good:
Ober was at his best, locating his pitches and avoiding barrels with his three and a half pitch mix.

Buxton made a classic Buxton grab up against the wall in right center in the first. He then made a heady play tagging up to second base in the fourth by reading left fielder Trammell's throw. perfectly It seemed like a normal play but I don't think I've seen it in my 25 years watching baseball.

Then he made the aforementioned, even better play as Okert struggled in the sixth.

Margot was among the most worried-about of all Twins hitters going into the game. Was he cooked? Maybe not; he is now one of the Twins leaders in OPS.

The Bad:
Twins Twitter will surely love the decision to pull Ober for Okert to start the sixth. I don't hate the move if it's Caleb Thielbar coming in, but I just don't think a guy we traded out-of-options Nick Gordon for is the matchup you want against Ohtani and Freeman.

The righty bats looked a little better, but overall didn't do much against Paxton. The last 18 Twins were retired.

The Twins bullpen, which had been the team's saving grace thus far, finally showed some cracks, with Okert and Jackson put into much higher-leverage roles than anyone would have anticipated a month ago.

What’s Next: Louie Varland (0-1, 6.75 ERA) goes against the Dodger's third biggest off-season pickup, Tyler Glasnow (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Glasnow is prone to a bad start here or there, but his stuff is electric and could pose a huge problem as the Twins try to get off the mat in the early going.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Funderburk	39	0	0	0	13	52
Alcalá	0	0	25	0	0	25
Sands	22	0	0	0	0	22
Jackson	0	0	20	0	22	42
Okert	0	0	0	0	16	16
Jax	0	0	0	0	21	21
Stewart	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[Jocko87]

Man, that was a quick wrap up post.  Almost like, no faith.  

Rewarded. 

[RocRedWing]

I know it's still April, but can we at least make the losses entertaining?

[Schmoeman5]

Rocco commenting on the Dodgers tying it up after pulling Ober. His comments were that the hardest hit ball was the one caught by Buxton. True. But they got hits on balls put in play. Wow! Runs can be scored without the long ball. What a marvelous concept.

[jkcarew]

31 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Rocco commenting on the Dodgers tying it up after pulling Ober. His comments were that the hardest hit ball was the one caught by Buxton. True. But they got hits on balls put in play. Wow! Runs can be scored without the long ball. What a marvelous concept.

The Dodgers struck out 12 times in this game.

The Twins struck out 7 times.

Yes…we seem inept offensively every game…but in reality, it’s not too many K’s EVERY game. I’d definitely live with 7 K’s per game…but no matter how many K’s, the RiSP issue is showing up…as is the power outage. Been out-homered in basically every game this year. Tonight was no different in that regard.

[jkcarew]

And just like that, Margot has the 3rd highest OPS on the club.
Even though it’s early, that’s a bad, bad thing.

The good news?: only 0-2 today with RiSP!

[darwin22]

Its getting late early.

Offense is putrid---averaging less than 3 runs per game.  

RISP:  Got to be worst team in MLB

Rotation has been average at best.

Lack of arms in bullpen is starting to show.

Other than that, things are awesome.

 

 

[Aggies7]

36 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The Dodgers struck out 12 times in this game.

The Twins struck out 7 times.

Yes…we seem inept offensively every game…but in reality, it’s not too many K’s EVERY game. I’d definitely live with 7 K’s per game…but no matter how many K’s, the RiSP issue is showing up…as is the power outage. Been out-homered in basically every game this year. Tonight was no different in that regard.

Twins have been out homered 12-4 so far. Kind of amazing it’s only at -8 considering they’re dead last in homers hit. By 3

[darwin22]

29th in MLB with 23 runs scored in 8 games

Oakland (3-7) and Rockies (2-8) both with more runs scored.

Only 1-9 White Sox are worse with 16 runs.

[BsuNemo]

Out analytic'd ourselves again... Cuz okert is better than a focused ober right? Ober has never gotten a lefty out? This is the same offense we saw last year until Lewis showed up. No adjustments in approach. We haven't hit well since Rowson left and those that do hit well in the minors haven't translated at all (outside of Lewis) at the major league level. Little growth and lots of regression. We again start the year unwatchable. Hopefully as the weather heats up we figure something out. 

[h2oface]

3 hours ago, darwin22 said:

29th in MLB with 23 runs scored in 8 games

Oakland (3-7) and Rockies (2-8) both with more runs scored.

Only 1-9 White Sox are worse with 16 runs.

But...... like last year, you will hear from the player's themselves, how they are actually way better and there is soooooo much talent in the locker room! 😇

Even the Astros have a worse record (4-7) so far. It is pretty early to throw in the towel, don't you think?

That Buxton catch was something else. And he didn't break. Awesome.

The Padres were down 8-0 going into the bottom of the 6th. Only 12 more outs and they could go home. But they didn't give up and won, 9-8! I hope our guys saw those highlights.

[D.C Twins]

"Bailey really did his job today. He threw the ball very well."

Yes Rocco....he did....right up until you pulled him after 60 some pitches in 5 innings for an injury limited bullpen with predictable results.

I will give Rocco credit for remembering that Martin was on his roster today though!

[USAFChief]

Among the other questionable manager decisions, don't forget burning Jax with a 2 run deficit. 

 

[mikelink45]

As I see the twins batting averages, it is frustrating when I see that steer was the national League player of the week. 

Let's hope those bats can warm up quickly and turn this around.

[Fezig]

Rocco. 

[CRF]

Pulling Ober was absolutely the wrong move...and it bit us on the butt right away. I don't like very many of the moves that Baldelli makes, and his decisions tend to backfire a lot more than they work. We're going to be in the soup once LA leaves town and we go on the road to Det and Balt. We could be out of the race by the end of April. 

[Doctor Gast]

Except for the overall poor offense again, it was a good game. Great to see Buck making those plays out there. LAD got lucky with some scrub hits against Okert. Even though Okert didn't give up much LAD took what he gave them & not SO. More playing time Martin sees on the MLB level, quicker he'll get settled in & contribute more to the offense .

[Peter]

Get ready for over 90 losses and last place finish😡🤮💩🤬👎

[Riverbrian]

Ober pulled after 68 pitches. Of course he was. I'm willing to bet this move at that time was planned before the game started. The only question was if Ober made it that far... which he did by pitching very well. 

Ohtani and Freeman hit back to back in the order and it was the third time through the order. That was when the left hander was coming in... Ober could have been throwing a no-hitter and he was coming out. 

Rocco is left right fixated. 

BTW... Dave Roberts is also left right fixated. Roberts and the Dodgers have always been a platoon heavy team. However... did anyone notice the difference. The Dodgers started 6 left handed hitters against Ober. The Twins threw two left handed pitchers in relief and Dave Roberts only pinch hit once and it happened IN THE NINTH when Taylor hit for Trammell. (Taylor hitting for Taylor).  

The game was close all along yet Gavin Lux was allowed to face a left hander in the 6th inning. Yes... he struck out but he wasn't yanked early in the game like Rocco will do to our young left handed hitters. 

Rojas entered the game for Lux as a defensive replacement in the 8th. 

I am not anti-platoon but I am saying that Rocco and the Twins have taken it to a new level. So... locked into the left right that there are no surprises. The moves are predictable. 

So Yeah... of course Ober was coming out in that spot.  

[Karbo]

On paper pulling Ober when they did was the right move. But games are not played on paper! Why not let Ober pitch to Ohtani with a lefty warming. If he gets hit pull him then. I'm a firm believer in the stats, but also let that gut feeling (which I'm not sure if Robot Rocco has) play out sometimes. Ohtani is a force, no matter which hand you throw with. Roll the dice with the starter sometimes. It would for sure help build their confidence!

[Whitey333]

As always Baldelli makes questionable moves.  Like pulling Ober after 5 innings and only 68 pitches plus he was rolling.  Especially since the bullpen has already been overworked.  The platoon pinch hitting is fun.  Margot got 2 of the three hits including a homerun but was pinch hit for by that Wallner who has a propensity to strike out.  So he struck out.  The article blames in part the soft hits the dodgers got and poor home plate umpiring again.  The pitching, with all the injuries, has done remarkably well.  The offense is in its usual I don't care it's early season mode.  This team doesn't have any fire.  As normal they say games in April don't matter.  Well maybe the fans realize it too.  Only 15,000 showed up to see the mighty Dodgers.  Great job Twins.  Let's make Tuesday no doz night.  All fans receive the caffeine pills to try to stay awake.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

 This team doesn't have any fire.  As normal they say games in April don't matter.

I disagree agree Wallner showed fire complaining about the called third strike that was IMO a strike. Swing the darn bat!

[jmlease1]

At least it was nice to see Buxton making a diving catch and immediately bounce up like nothing had happened. I'm so happy to see him playing healthy.

The offense disappoints right now, and outside of Royce being on the IL they're pretty healthy, so no excuses. They're just not playing well enough. 2 runs or less in 5 of the last 6 is not going to win very many games.

Jackson may have a good slider, but if he flings it in the heart of the zone, he's going to get punished. He was way too middle-middle for success.

[rv78]

I get lambasted on this site every time I mention how BAD Rocco is, yet almost every post here is a comment on his poor managing. Nothing will change until the Front Office, the Manager and his coaches are gone. Don't like his platoon to death style? Too bad. Don't like his pull a starter before 3 times facing a certain player?, Too bad. Don't like him burning up his closer in a 2 run deficit game? Too bad. Don't like him throwing games away? Too bad. Now why the Twins can't hit? Because they trade away HITTERS and try to win with BOMBERS, washed up veterans and replacement level backup types that other teams let go. Good job FO.

[EGFTShaw]

LA (Evil Empire West) Dodgers Broadcasters:

"A healthy Buxton, a gift to baseball"
This is my take away from these early games.

Plus, I'll take Ober's response to a horrible game with a solid start along with AK-19 hitting.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 hours ago, h2oface said:

Even the Astros have a worse record (4-7) so far. It is pretty early to throw in the towel, don't you think?

It is way to early, but the Astros did Play Texas, NYY and Blue Jays, Not two teams from the Central division. The Astros do have 16 doubles and 16 homers and the Twins have 10 and 4. Seems like less for them to worry about and just have their bullpen do better and start playing some worse teams. As opposed to the Twins, correct?

 

[MinnInPa]

Twins don't have real problems other than not being able to hit Right handed Pitchers or left handed Pitchers.. other than that looking great.   SMH

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

I get lambasted on this site every time I mention how BAD Rocco is, yet almost every post here is a comment on his poor managing. Nothing will change until the Front Office, the Manager and his coaches are gone. Don't like his platoon to death style? Too bad. Don't like his pull a starter before 3 times facing a certain player?, Too bad. Don't like him burning up his closer in a 2 run deficit game? Too bad. Don't like him throwing games away? Too bad. Now why the Twins can't hit? Because they trade away HITTERS and try to win with BOMBERS, washed up veterans and replacement level backup types that other teams let go. Good job FO.

well, most of the people complaining about his "bad managing" here are the ones that already agreed with you before the season started about him as a manager.

but you are correct: nothing will change unless the front office goes as well. I'm not advocating for that, just stating a fact. Rocco's in-game decisions are part of an overall organizational philosophy.

I don't really blame the manager for the fact that we only have 2 hitters with an OPS+ over 100 right now. I don't blame Rocco for the fact that Wallner, Julien, Jeffers, Kepler, Castro, Santana, and Vazquez have all been bad at the plate so far this season: I blame the players for that. They've been bad on offense, and as a result we're 3-5 when we could easily be 5-3.

I assume the "we trade away hitters" comment is another Arraez lament? (he's off to slow start too, BTW) If we hadn't made that move we wouldn't have our ace, and Lopez has a nifty 135 ERA+ and we'd be in trouble without him. If ownership hadn't cut the payroll like they did, we might have gotten better reinforcements. That said, Margot is now putting up a 142 OPS+, because it doesn't take a lot to turn around a small sample size. (and he's certainly not a "bomber" even if he did hit a HR yesterday)

[MinnInPa]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I disagree agree Wallner showed fire complaining about the called third strike that was IMO a strike. Swing the darn bat!

way way too many Twins go down looking ....swing the **&^%$$### bat !!!!!

[Ricky Vaughn]

Changed the channel to the basketball game the minute Rocco pulled Ober. Knew what was about to happen.