Brewers 3, Twins 2: Rally Runs Short for Minnesota

[Ted Schwerzler]

Louie Varland toed the rubber for his first start of the 2024 season Tuesday afternoon. Although it was something of an abbreviated outing, the Twins pitcher left his team in position to win. Rocco Baldelli's offense remained largely lifeless, though, and fell to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Box Score
SP: Louie Varland - 4.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (89 pitches, 52 strikes, 11 whiffs 12.4%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Margot -.152, Santana -.151, Varland -.115

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Louie Comes Out Strong
There were bound to be plenty of eyes on Louie Varland for his first start of the season. With Anthony DeSclafani out for the year, it was the Concordia-St. Paul product who was inserted into the rotation. After transitioning to the bullpen last season and showing triple-digit heat, working as a starter again might have been a hard sell. He came out firing in the first inning. After he dotted a 98-mph fastball to Sal Frelick and froze him for the strikeout, it was clear the velocity was still going to play.

Brandishing a new cutter, Varland couldn’t get the bottom of the zone to stretch against Christian Yelich in the first, but worked around a walk to William Contreras, anyway. The tweaks to his arsenal have been a talking point throughout spring training, and watching them on display while it counts was the big takeaway today.

Jake Bauers stepped in for the second inning, and Varland dotted a cutter on the corner to send him down looking. The Brewers had a bit of BABIP luck thereafter, stringing together four singles, of which three were hit softly, but the youngster Jackson Chourio put Milwaukee on the board by driving in Brice Turang. The velocity remained at 96 mph or higher, and it looks like Varland will have plenty of gas to remain working as a starter.

Lineup Limps Out
Through the first three innings, the Minnesota Twins lineup looked lifeless. Despite facing a very hittable starter in Jakob Junis, they managed just a single hit and struck out four times. Rocco Baldelli’s group continued to attack early, and they rarely made Junis work. He threw just 31 pitches, of which 25 were strikes, and Minnesota had nothing to show for it.

After an 11-0 drubbing on Sunday in Kansas City, there might have been a bit of anxiety building near the bat rack. Since the injury to Royce Lewis on Opening Day, the lineup has lacked the same spark. With Varland leaving a 96 mph fastball on a 3-2 count middle-middle to Christian Yelich, the Twins found themselves in a 2-0 hole.

That wasn’t the only trouble for Minnesota in the third. Varland made a fool of Turang with an induced sword on a curveball for strike two, but the Brewers infielder got revenge later in the at-bat. Going with an up-and-out fastball, he flipped it to left fielder Matt Wallner and drove in Rhys Hoskins to make it a 3-0 game. The 3-2 pitch against Oliver Dunn looked like it could have been strike three and ended the inning, but home plate umpire Clint Vondrak didn’t agree.

Wallner Gets it Going
After striking out in his first at bat, Matt Wallner stepped in following a Carlos Correa walk to load the bases. After missing on a strike two pitch, and taking time to induce a jaunt behind home plate, he made contact on the next pitch. Alex Kirilloff was able to scamper home from third base, and Chourio’s throw trying to nail Byron Buxton at third was off line.

Unfortunately Carlos Santana wasn’t able to bring in any of the additional baserunners, and Minnesota ended the inning plating just one and leaving a pair. With the lifeless nature of the lineup for the first three innings, it was good to see Kirilloff and Buxton reach on a pair of singles. Junis dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of spring training, and his time on the mound may not be long, so there was some pressure to score before they lost their chance to attack him.

Wallner needs to find a way to parlay contact into some success as he dealt with a tough spring, Although he trended more positively towards the end, fruitless at-bats mounted, and his strikeout tendencies reared their heads. Through his first seven at-bats in 2024, he has struck out five times.

Bullpen Time Comes Early
After the Brewers turned to Elvis Peguero for the 5th inning, Minnesota responded with a reliever of their own in the bottom half. Jorge Alcalá came on to relieve Varland after his 89 pitches of work. With the Twins having serious question marks in the rotation, it remains to be seen how often Baldelli will need to lean on his bullpen group. For right now, those arms are depleted as well, and that can’t be something that Minnesota lets snowball early in the season.

Minnesota will need relievers to provide multiple innings out of the bullpen, and Alcala was ticketed for that role on Tuesday. After the group pitched a whole bunch of innings on Sunday, they were going to need to cover at least four in game one against Milwaukee.

Coming out for the 6th inning, Buxton was nearly taken out by a racing sausage. Fortunately, he avoided injury, but that wiener should certainly be watching its back. Alcalá again walked the leadoff hitter, and Turang advanced to second base on a steal. Getting Sal Frelick to pop out was great, but he couldn’t get Contreras after starting with two strikes. Turang swiped third on the 3-2 pitch and the Brewers had runners on the corners.

A showdown with Yelich wasn’t what anyone should have wanted, but Alcalá got another lazy pop up to Willi Castro. His 39 pitches might be the most he’ll throw all season, but it was encouraging to see the flamethrowing reliever still at 97-mph late in his outing. He will need to hone in the command though, as just 21 strikes is not an ideal ratio.

Mix and Match
The Twins, still down by three runs, needed to respond, and looked to do so in the 7th inning. After Correa walked, the Brewers responded by bringing in Hoby Milner against Wallner. Baldelli countered by putting Manuel Margot into the game, and he immediately drew a walk. Santana advanced the runners on a ground out the Willy Adames nearly booted, and then Contreras booted a Castro nubber to load the bases.

After struggling to start last season with the bases loaded, it was on Vázquez to come through and even the ledger today. He lifted a fly ball in the gap to Yelich, scoring Correa and bringing Minnesota within one. Kyle Farmer then came off the bench to replace Edouard Julien, and he had the opportunity to tie things up with a base hit. Milner went up and in to get Farmer on the corner, and the Twins remained down one while they stretched.

Jay Jackson came on and worked the bottom of the 7th for the Twins. A Bauers walk put a runner on for Milwaukee, but as he did against Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals, Vázquez brandished his cannon and nailed the Milwaukee baserunner trying to grab an extra 90 feet. Hoskins stared at strike three, and it was on to the 8th.

With Devin Williams out to start the year, it was Abner Uribe with his eyes on a save for the Brewers. He grabbed two of them against the New York Mets in his first two outings this season, but did allow a home run in one of those contests. Correa opened the 9th inning with a leadoff walk, and Austin Martin took his spot at first base to utilize his speed.

Unfortunately, Margot grounded into a double play, started by Hoskins, and Minnesota was down to their final out. The decision not to challenge the play was a curious one, as it looked like Margot may have beat the throw and the game was on the line. Santana grounded out to Turang and Minnesota’s record moved to even.

The lineup will certainly need to do more of the heavy lifting than they have he past couple of games, and working a split tomorrow with Milwaukee could provide some good vibes for the season opening road trip before the team heads hom.

What’s Next? 
The Minnesota Twins turn to Chris Paddack, as he makes his first appearance of the 2024 season. Opposed by the Brewers Joe Ross, Minnesota and Milwaukee will conclude their short two-game set before the Twins venture to Target Field for the first time in 2024.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[Peter]

Only 4 games into season-I hope I’m wrong but thus is shaping up to be a loooong season of losing. 3 hits isn’t going to win any games-also losing Sonny/Kenta is going to bite them in ass. Without Royce we are screwed!!! Need to bounce back in worse way tomorrow as well on home stand. 

[USAFChief]

I certainly love seeing Manny Margot up instead of Wallner in the 9th.

LEAVE THE BETTER HITTERS IN THE GAME INSTEAD OF PHing IN THE MIDDLE INNINGS.

[mikelink45]

Could Varland have gone further?  I don't know - just asking.

Do we have to have Lewis to get this lineup going?  If so we are in bad shape. 

[Hashim]

Our offense is completely toothless without Lewis. It would have been better to use the money they spent on Margot+Santana on better offensive players like J.D Martinez or Rhys Hoskins. 

[Aggies7]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Could Varland have gone further?  I don't know - just asking.

Do we have to have Lewis to get this lineup going?  If so we are in bad shape. 

I thought the Duran injury was bad…the Lewis injury could be a catastrophe. The bullpen looks solid enough where maybe they can cover his loss. But The offense is punchless.

[Aggies7]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Could Varland have gone further?  I don't know - just asking.

Do we have to have Lewis to get this lineup going?  If so we are in bad shape. 

I think he was approaching 90 pitches through 4. I think he was done. The guy goes max effort on every pitch. You know, like a reliever 

[Mike Sixel]

It's four games....

[Shaitan]

4-0 would be nice, but .500 on the road isn't bad y'all.

[RpR]

How the record looks after facing the Dodgers, Tigers and Orioles the next few weeks, will say much about how this team may do.

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Could Varland have gone further?  I don't know - just asking.

Do we have to have Lewis to get this lineup going?  If so we are in bad shape. 

89 pitches in 4 innings, 8 baserunners. I think pulling him was the right move. 

[jkcarew]

Buxton swinging it pretty good. Unfortunately, he’s not getting the ball in the air. In the past…in the stretches where he’s making hard contact…the HR’s have come in numbers. It’s a problem he’s never had.

Still, it’s only a problem because nobody else is hitting much of anything. Hate to say it, but I don’t think this lineup is going to win many games by spraying singles and doubles all over the place.

And I don’t think we can just ride the starting pitching, either. Power needs to kick in.

[Ted Schwerzler]

31 minutes ago, Peter said:

Only 4 games into season-I hope I’m wrong but thus is shaping up to be a loooong season of losing. 3 hits isn’t going to win any games-also losing Sonny/Kenta is going to bite them in ass. Without Royce we are screwed!!! Need to bounce back in worse way tomorrow as well on home stand. 

It's four games in. You're overthinking it.

Sonny is hurt and Kenta looks terrible. Wouldn't want either of them right now.

[Ted Schwerzler]

30 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Could Varland have gone further?  I don't know - just asking.

89 pitches with spotty results is hardly a quick hook

[Aggies7]

Just now, jkcarew said:

Buxton swinging it pretty good. Unfortunately, he’s not getting the ball in the air. In the past…in the stretches where he’s making hard contact…the HR’s have come in numbers. It’s a problem he’s never had.

Still, it’s only a problem because nobody else is hitting much of anything. Hate to say it, but I don’t think this lineup is going to win many games by spraying singles and doubles all over the place.

And I don’t think we can just ride the starting pitching, either. Power needs to kick in.

Maybe Lopez can pitch every other day like Christy Matthewson. Would help 

[Aggies7]

3 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

It's four games in. You're overthinking it.

Sonny is hurt and Kenta looks terrible. Wouldn't want either of them right now.

Not that either of those guys or anyone else WOULD for sure be here now, but I sure as heck would take Sonny in the rotation right now. I’d even take him with the injury.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Not that either of those guys or anyone else WOULD for sure be here now, but I sure as heck would take Sonny in the rotation right now. I’d even take him with the injury.

They were never re-signing Sonny for three years at that price. 

I thought Santana and Margot were mistakes, and nothing has changed my mind. Losing an elite player like Lewis is tough, especially with Lee hurt. 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Maybe Lopez can pitch every other day like Christy Matthewson. Would help 

Lopez and Ryan, or else we be die'n.

[Ted Schwerzler]

11 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Not that either of those guys or anyone else WOULD for sure be here now, but I sure as heck would take Sonny in the rotation right now. I’d even take him with the injury.

Not at the money he got paid. It's happening at 34. I don't want to see how it's happening at 36 or 37.

Someone else, yes.

[Aggies7]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They were never re-signing Sonny for three years at that price. 

I thought Santana and Margot were mistakes, and nothing has changed my mind. Losing an elite player like Lewis is tough, especially with Lee hurt. 

I know, but I’d still want him over 4/5s of our other starters..

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

4-0 would be nice, but .500 on the road isn't bad y'all.

Guarantee they won't finish this road trip. 500. 

Guar-own-tee!

[Aggies7]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Lopez and Ryan, or else we be die'n.

Lopez, Ryan and start cryin’

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

I know, but I’d still want him over 4/5s of our other starters..

I guess I'm just not going to get upset they didn't do something everyone knew they wouldn't do. I'd rather have a lot of players they didn't acquire, but I only second guess the realistic stuff.  Ymmv, of course. 

[Aggies7]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I guess I'm just not going to get upset they didn't do something everyone knew they wouldn't do. I'd rather have a lot of players they didn't acquire, but I only second guess the realistic stuff.  Ymmv, of course. 

Me too

[Patzky]

44 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I certainly love seeing Manny Margot up instead of Wallner in the 9th.

LEAVE THE BETTER HITTERS IN THE GAME INSTEAD OF PHing IN THE MIDDLE INNINGS.

Gonna say this all spring . Paging Donnie Barrels.

[Hubie29]

Have to realize also we were facing Cy Singer and Cy Junis.  Seriously though, yes I think it's going to be a lean offensive year. 

[rv78]

So Varland pitched today, Paddack tomorrow. That gives Pablo 6 days rest. My guess....the ONLY reason...... it is more important for him to pitch opening day in Minnesota than it is to win a game in Milwaukee. It amounts to more games being thrown away by the Manager. No reason why Lopez couldn't have pitched today or tomorrow improving the chances to win those games, but evidently it's not important. Sorry, but I don't agree with this kind of logic. Is there something wrong with using your best players as often as you can? Even an Ace Pitcher isn't important enough for Rocco to use when he can. Poor managing again. 

[jorgenswest]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I certainly love seeing Manny Margot up instead of Wallner in the 9th.

LEAVE THE BETTER HITTERS IN THE GAME INSTEAD OF PHing IN THE MIDDLE INNINGS.

Is it 3-1 in the 9th without Margot getting the walk that moved the runner into scoring position? Maybe. Does that spot in the order bat in the 9th without getting in base in the 7th? The 7th down 3-1 is not the middle innings to me. Unlike the 6th here is no guarantee it will get another at bat.

I probably unfairly quoted Chief here because I don’t really disagree but…

I don’t find myself frustrated with that move in the 7th. I am frustrated by the lack of everyday hitters on the roster and the over abundance of short side bats. The adds this winter all short sided platoon bats in Farmer, Santana and Margot who rank 6th, 7th and 8th (tied with our injured starter who will never pitch in a Twins uniform). It is horrible roster construction and right handed starters will be a challenge all year. Later in the game opposing managers can neutralize this left handed bats in one inning and the option will be either to concede that inning or pull out your left handed platoon hitter who you might need in the 9th.

To me this is the opposite of flexibility. Flexibility is players who can hit pitchers from both sides. Nelson Cruz gave them the flexibility on a more options on the bench because there was never a need to remove him. When you DH a batter like Margot or Kirilloff that is not flexibility. It is devoting two guys to the DH spot in that game. It is the same for 2B or LF and now there are no options in the bench. There was a need for another everyday hitter entering the off season that was only magnified by the loss of Polanco. Opposing managers must love facing rosters like the one we have constructed.

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, rv78 said:

So Varland pitched today, Paddack tomorrow. That gives Pablo 6 days rest. My guess....the ONLY reason...... it is more important for him to pitch opening day in Minnesota than it is to win a game in Milwaukee. It amounts to more games being thrown away by the Manager. No reason why Lopez couldn't have pitched today or tomorrow improving the chances to win those games, but evidently it's not important. Sorry, but I don't agree with this kind of logic. NIs there something wrong with using your best players as often as you can? Even an Ace Pitcher isn't important enough for Rocco to use when he can. Poor managing again. 

It's been their MO since this front office got here to use the extra rest at the beginning of the year. You're talking about maybe one or two more starts the entire year.... Maybe

[jkcarew]

So Varland is #4 and Paddack is #5?

Or did Rocco make up his mind that he was going to use all five (even though he wouldn’t have “needed” to) on this pass as a ‘tryout’ for the 4th spot going forward?