Brewers 3, Twins 2: Rally Runs Short for Minnesota

Box Score
SP: Louie Varland - 4.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (89 pitches, 52 strikes, 11 whiffs 12.4%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Margot -.152, Santana -.151, Varland -.115

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Louie Comes Out Strong
There were bound to be plenty of eyes on Louie Varland for his first start of the season. With Anthony DeSclafani out for the year, it was the Concordia-St. Paul product who was inserted into the rotation. After transitioning to the bullpen last season and showing triple-digit heat, working as a starter again might have been a hard sell. He came out firing in the first inning. After he dotted a 98-mph fastball to Sal Frelick and froze him for the strikeout, it was clear the velocity was still going to play.

Brandishing a new cutter, Varland couldn’t get the bottom of the zone to stretch against Christian Yelich in the first, but worked around a walk to William Contreras, anyway. The tweaks to his arsenal have been a talking point throughout spring training, and watching them on display while it counts was the big takeaway today.

Jake Bauers stepped in for the second inning, and Varland dotted a cutter on the corner to send him down looking. The Brewers had a bit of BABIP luck thereafter, stringing together four singles, of which three were hit softly, but the youngster Jackson Chourio put Milwaukee on the board by driving in Brice Turang. The velocity remained at 96 mph or higher, and it looks like Varland will have plenty of gas to remain working as a starter.

Lineup Limps Out
Through the first three innings, the Minnesota Twins lineup looked lifeless. Despite facing a very hittable starter in Jakob Junis, they managed just a single hit and struck out four times. Rocco Baldelli’s group continued to attack early, and they rarely made Junis work. He threw just 31 pitches, of which 25 were strikes, and Minnesota had nothing to show for it.

After an 11-0 drubbing on Sunday in Kansas City, there might have been a bit of anxiety building near the bat rack. Since the injury to Royce Lewis on Opening Day, the lineup has lacked the same spark. With Varland leaving a 96 mph fastball on a 3-2 count middle-middle to Christian Yelich, the Twins found themselves in a 2-0 hole.

That wasn’t the only trouble for Minnesota in the third. Varland made a fool of Turang with an induced sword on a curveball for strike two, but the Brewers infielder got revenge later in the at-bat. Going with an up-and-out fastball, he flipped it to left fielder Matt Wallner and drove in Rhys Hoskins to make it a 3-0 game. The 3-2 pitch against Oliver Dunn looked like it could have been strike three and ended the inning, but home plate umpire Clint Vondrak didn’t agree.

Wallner Gets it Going
After striking out in his first at bat, Matt Wallner stepped in following a Carlos Correa walk to load the bases. After missing on a strike two pitch, and taking time to induce a jaunt behind home plate, he made contact on the next pitch. Alex Kirilloff was able to scamper home from third base, and Chourio’s throw trying to nail Byron Buxton at third was off line.

Unfortunately Carlos Santana wasn’t able to bring in any of the additional baserunners, and Minnesota ended the inning plating just one and leaving a pair. With the lifeless nature of the lineup for the first three innings, it was good to see Kirilloff and Buxton reach on a pair of singles. Junis dealt with a shoulder injury at the end of spring training, and his time on the mound may not be long, so there was some pressure to score before they lost their chance to attack him.

Wallner needs to find a way to parlay contact into some success as he dealt with a tough spring, Although he trended more positively towards the end, fruitless at-bats mounted, and his strikeout tendencies reared their heads. Through his first seven at-bats in 2024, he has struck out five times.

Bullpen Time Comes Early
After the Brewers turned to Elvis Peguero for the 5th inning, Minnesota responded with a reliever of their own in the bottom half. Jorge Alcalá came on to relieve Varland after his 89 pitches of work. With the Twins having serious question marks in the rotation, it remains to be seen how often Baldelli will need to lean on his bullpen group. For right now, those arms are depleted as well, and that can’t be something that Minnesota lets snowball early in the season.

Minnesota will need relievers to provide multiple innings out of the bullpen, and Alcala was ticketed for that role on Tuesday. After the group pitched a whole bunch of innings on Sunday, they were going to need to cover at least four in game one against Milwaukee.

Coming out for the 6th inning, Buxton was nearly taken out by a racing sausage. Fortunately, he avoided injury, but that wiener should certainly be watching its back. Alcalá again walked the leadoff hitter, and Turang advanced to second base on a steal. Getting Sal Frelick to pop out was great, but he couldn’t get Contreras after starting with two strikes. Turang swiped third on the 3-2 pitch and the Brewers had runners on the corners.

A showdown with Yelich wasn’t what anyone should have wanted, but Alcalá got another lazy pop up to Willi Castro. His 39 pitches might be the most he’ll throw all season, but it was encouraging to see the flamethrowing reliever still at 97-mph late in his outing. He will need to hone in the command though, as just 21 strikes is not an ideal ratio.

Mix and Match
The Twins, still down by three runs, needed to respond, and looked to do so in the 7th inning. After Correa walked, the Brewers responded by bringing in Hoby Milner against Wallner. Baldelli countered by putting Manuel Margot into the game, and he immediately drew a walk. Santana advanced the runners on a ground out the Willy Adames nearly booted, and then Contreras booted a Castro nubber to load the bases.

After struggling to start last season with the bases loaded, it was on Vázquez to come through and even the ledger today. He lifted a fly ball in the gap to Yelich, scoring Correa and bringing Minnesota within one. Kyle Farmer then came off the bench to replace Edouard Julien, and he had the opportunity to tie things up with a base hit. Milner went up and in to get Farmer on the corner, and the Twins remained down one while they stretched.

Jay Jackson came on and worked the bottom of the 7th for the Twins. A Bauers walk put a runner on for Milwaukee, but as he did against Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals, Vázquez brandished his cannon and nailed the Milwaukee baserunner trying to grab an extra 90 feet. Hoskins stared at strike three, and it was on to the 8th.

With Devin Williams out to start the year, it was Abner Uribe with his eyes on a save for the Brewers. He grabbed two of them against the New York Mets in his first two outings this season, but did allow a home run in one of those contests. Correa opened the 9th inning with a leadoff walk, and Austin Martin took his spot at first base to utilize his speed.

Unfortunately, Margot grounded into a double play, started by Hoskins, and Minnesota was down to their final out. The decision not to challenge the play was a curious one, as it looked like Margot may have beat the throw and the game was on the line. Santana grounded out to Turang and Minnesota’s record moved to even.

The lineup will certainly need to do more of the heavy lifting than they have he past couple of games, and working a split tomorrow with Milwaukee could provide some good vibes for the season opening road trip before the team heads hom.

What’s Next? 
The Minnesota Twins turn to Chris Paddack, as he makes his first appearance of the 2024 season. Opposed by the Brewers Joe Ross, Minnesota and Milwaukee will conclude their short two-game set before the Twins venture to Target Field for the first time in 2024.

Postgame Interviews

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