Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base

[Nick Nelson]

At long last, Royce Lewis smashed onto the scene with an unforgettable rookie season, cementing his status by adding a sensational performance in the playoffs. 

The hype train is full steam ahead as Lewis looks to put his health troubles behind him and stay on track as a budding superstar.

Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Third base is a tough position. It has a high offensive standard but also a considerable degree of defensive difficulty, requiring springy athleticism, quick reflexes and a strong arm. Players who can field the position well and produce at the plate – often former shortstops – are highly valued, and represent some of the league's biggest stars, from Jose Ramirez to Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, Manny Machado and beyond. 

Following an arduous journey for their former No. 1 overall pick, the Twins hope they now have a player capable of ranking among these heavyweights. Their true ceiling as a team this year largely hinges on it.

TWINS THIRD BASEMEN AT A GLANCE

Starter: Royce Lewis
Backup: Kyle Farmer
Depth: Willi Castro, José Miranda, Austin Martin
Prospects: Brooks Lee, Danny De Andrade, Tanner Schobel

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 10th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30

THE GOOD
It took a little longer than everyone hoped, but Lewis has finally arrived, looking very much like the franchise centerpiece that Minnesota envisioned when they drafted him first overall seven years ago. Well, maybe not specifically what they envisioned; the ultra-athletic Lewis always flashed star potential, but back when he was a wiry teenage shortstop with blazing speed we might not have pictured him as a buffed up slugger with 40-HR power.

 

Since being drafted, Lewis has lost a bit of his high-end speed while maturing physically and enduring multiple major knee injuries. But he's still pretty fast, and he's added enough power to swap that in as a top-shelf skill. In just 70 big-league games, the 24-year-old has launched 17 home runs (including five grand slams) and slugged .549. That's not including the four postseason bombs that legitimized his breakout on the national stage.

Despite his relatively small sample of play in recent years, Lewis's performance in 2023 was convincing for all who witnessed. MLB Network now has him ranked as a top 100 player in the game. Vegas has him on par with the likes of Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve in terms of MVP odds. The typically conservative FanGraphs system projects a 4-WAR season, which is All-Star level. 

Lewis was solid defensively in his first go at third base, and it should be noted: this really was his first go. Although he played some third in high school, Lewis had barely fielded the position in the minors before being thrust into it full-time as a big-league rookie. With experience under his belt and a full spring to sharpen up, I wouldn't be surprised to see the former shortstop elevate his defensive impact significantly at the hot corner. 

 

THE BAD
Even if he continues to be a great player, and maybe even the team's best player, fans should brace for some level of regression following the ridiculous run we saw from Lewis last year. His .393 wOBA would've ranked ninth among qualified big-leaguers, between Juan Soto and Bryce Harper – an awfully high bar for his first full season. With that said, Lewis's name hardy feels out of place being mentioned alongside those greats, which says a lot. His emphatic showing last year erased almost all doubt regarding his ability.

Availability, on the other hand, remains a question mark. His arrival in the majors was sidetracked by back-to-back ACL tears. Even after making his triumphant return last year, the third baseman was plagued by soft-tissue injuries, to the point where he nearly had to sit out the playoffs.

All signs are positive health-wise in early spring, but the Twins have been conditioned to plan for the possibility of life without Lewis. In the event he becomes unavailable, third base loses much of its luster for the club, with Farmer and Castro as the veteran backups and Lee as the possible solution in a long-term scenario. 

Having a top prospect on deck as a fallback, in the event of another lengthy absence from Lewis, is a pretty good place to be. But as mentioned in the second base preview, expectations for Lee should be kept in check as a rookie.

One wild-card in the deck here is Miranda. He was the team's Opening Day starter at third last year, but now his viability at the position feels very much in question. His defensive chops at third were never considered strong, and last year Miranda looked especially rough before he was shut down, but who knows how much the shoulder injury factored into that. If Lewis gets sidelined early in the season, and Alex Kirilloff and Carlos Santana are holding it down at first, Miranda could get one more chance to step back in at the hot corner.

We'll need to see Miranda get any kind of action defensively this spring before that possibility comes into play, however. He continues to be limited to DH duty for now.

THE BOTTOM LINE
An intermingling of top prospects past and present, with Royce Lewis supplanting José Miranda and diverting the path of Brooks Lee. If Lewis gets sidelined again, Miranda is in the mix with Farmer, Castro and others as a short-term fill-in, with Lee lined up as a longer-term replacement if needed. 

There are contingencies in place should something go amiss with Lewis, but the team's potential really depends on him continuing to feature as the heart of the lineup as he did last season and in the playoffs. Now that he's finally entering a season healthy and experiencing a normal big-league camp, it really feels like the sky is the limit for Lewis and the Twins at third base.

Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base

View full article

[Doctor Gast]

Lewis has turned 3B from a ? to one of our strongest positions. As long as Lewis stays at 3B & away from CF, Lewis will remain in such a good place physically. Farmer should spend most of his time platooning Julien at 2B. Castro should spend most of his time in the OF. Miranda IMO shouldn't be depended upon at 3B. Lewis should have the lion's share at 3B, even with some regression Lewis should be a All-Star, 

[Riverbrian]

Health Please Please Please... with sugar on top. 

Lewis hit the ground running requiring no adjustment to the new level of opponent. Only health has knocked him down. MLB pitching has not. 

With Health... It's my opinion that Lewis will be in the AL MVP conversation. 

I also think highly of Miranda.

I Love the depth we are accumulating. 

[jmlease1]

It'll be really interesting to see where Royce Lewis lands after a full season, and whether or not he can make it through a season injury-free. (he hasn't played anywhere near a full season since 2019, so it's more than fair to be concerned) It's fair to expect a little regression this season...because he was playing at an all-star level last season! There's room for him to still be pretty dang great even if he slips back a little as the league adjusts to him and he has to start adjusting back. But there's a lot to like in his performance from last season: he still took walks and didn't just hack at everything. He got better at 3B as the season went along. The work-ethic and attitude are fantastic.

The depth behind him is good: Farmer and Castro can fill in short-term easily, and Lee is projected to be superior defensively at 3B and his bat certainly looks quality. I think Miranda is not much of an option there any longer; he struggled defensively before and with the lingering shoulder problems it's hard to see him being able to make those throws. 1B seems to be more of his destiny (though it's important to remember that his preferred position is actually 2B, not that he's jumping in front of Julien or Lee there either).

I'm pretty happy to pencil Mr. Grand Slam into the lineup every day at 3B and letting him cook. Getting another 70 games of Royce Lewis on the Twins this season is one of the big areas where they can be better than last season, and I'm frankly just excited for him to get to show his talent. Hoping for good health for a good dude.

[mikelink45]

A nice positive column and the player that has impressed the most.  This is the kind of emergence we expected from Kiriloff.  He truly has the feeling of superstardom.

[wabene]

After the all-star break, they'll have to start sprinkling in reps in left to prepare for the inevitable move in '25.

 

 

Bwaaaahahaha! 😂

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

16 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Although injuries could change things, I thought I saw a Rocco quote saying Miranda is now being viewed as a first baseman and will not get any reps at third base this Spring.  I think that they would look to Castro and Farmer short-term and Brooks Lee as more of a long-term solution should Lewis go down.

With his seemingly lingering shoulder problems, I think this makes sense for 2024. It didn't seem to affect his bat too much early on last year, but the throwing motion was obviously worse and I have to imagine it only made the problem worse for him to be throwing across the diamond. 

[Trov]

I do not understand why we would predict regression when he was always touted as a top prospect and only health is what really kept him back. Sure, he may not hit 4 grand slams every year, in part he may not get that many chances, and teams may start pitching around him in those situations willing to give up 1 run, not the full Bonds treatment, but give him nothing but junk in hopes he starts chasing. 

If we are expecting regression it is only because he did things he never did before, but that does not seem to be the fact. Yes, compared to his very young years the OPS is higher, but that is to be expected from an 18 or 19 year old.  His 2019 season he was hurt much of the year, but in 2022 he put up .940 OPS at AAA and .867 OPS at MLB.  Last year the power was about the same, the main difference in OPS was his OBP.  

The main risk we run into is if he starts to press and chase bad pitches because teams start pitching around him. I am not too worried about that because after he came back from his injury last year, the last 2 months he did better than his first month, which is when they would have started to adjust more to him crushing. 

Sure, he may regress, but to expect it because he was very good seems odd based on his overall history.  He is getting into his prime and could very well get even better.  If he, Buck, CC can all stay healthy and Julien can build off what he did last year the top of this line up will be crazy. 

[jorgenswest]

Maybe some are expecting regression because his statcast xBA, xSLG and xwOBA based on quality of contact were all quite a bit lower than his actuals.

[Eris]

24 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Although injuries could change things, I thought I saw a Rocco quote saying Miranda is now being viewed as a first baseman and will not get any reps at third base this Spring.  I think that they would look to Castro and Farmer short-term and Brooks Lee as more of a long-term solution should Lewis go down.

 

I think this is a correct assessment on the 3B depth chart also the possibility that Correa moves off SS towards the end of his contract. 
 

in addition, Miranda was/is a poor defender at 3B. 

[baul0010]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lewis has turned 3B from a ? to one of our strongest positions. As long as Lewis stays at 3B & away from CF, Lewis will remain in such a good place physically. Farmer should spend most of his time platooning Julien at 2B. Castro should spend most of his time in the OF. Miranda IMO shouldn't be depended upon at 3B. Lewis should have the lion's share at 3B, even with some regression Lewis should be a All-Star, 

I have been rooting for Lewis since the minute he was drafted.  I still think his physical talents are not being utilized at 3rd base.  With his speed and agility, SS and CF make the most sense.  I don't want him back in the outfield again!!!  I would like to see him at 2nd base with Correa at SS.  At least he'd still be up the the middle defensively and we'd eventually have Lee who would be good to excellent at 3rd.  

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

After the all-star break, they'll have to start sprinkling in reps in left to prepare for the inevitable move in '25.

 

 

Bwaaaahahaha! 😂

Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or if you are serious?

I do think they may move him to LF…..  maybe even later this year.

Lewis - Buxton/Castro/Martin - Wallner in OF for ‘25………room for Larnach too!

Lee - CC - Julien/Martin - Kirilloff & maybe Miranda? in IF.

Lewis plays 3B a bunch v. LH pitching until Lee is competent form the right side of the plate.

Castro & Kirilloff & Lewis & Martin could all go back & forth from OF to IF as needed.

To me, LF is less physically demanding than 3B for Lewis & it opens up a spot for Lee’s best worth, along with Julien.

[wabene]

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or if you are serious?

I do think they may move him to LF…..  maybe even later this year.

Lewis - Buxton/Castro/Martin - Wallner in OF for ‘25………room for Larnach too!

Lee - CC - Julien/Martin - Kirilloff & maybe Miranda? in IF.

Lewis plays 3B a bunch v. LH pitching until Lee is competent form the right side of the plate.

Castro & Kirilloff & Lewis & Martin could all go back & forth from OF to IF as needed.

To me, LF is less physically demanding than 3B for Lewis & it opens up a spot for Lee’s best worth, along with Julien.

It's a little tongue in cheek because it's a volatile subject here. I will go on record stating that I don't believe there is more injury risk in the outfield for Lewis. To the point I would say that idea is bunk.

When the dust settles and we see how they all perform, I just want the best players to play where it benefits the team the most. I don't care where they end up as long as it helps us win. 

[RpR]

Without some truly nasty happening, Lewis is the Third Baseman for the next some years.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Maybe some are expecting regression because his statcast xBA, xSLG and xwOBA based on quality of contact were all quite a bit lower than his actuals.

Not really. Early on in the season Lewis was getting lucky, but the way he performed later was the real deal. Lewis hung out at an xwOBA north of .480 for the last 125 or so PA of the season. Ultra elite hitting. As the season progressed, Lewis consistently got better and better.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

It's a little tongue in cheek because it's a volatile subject here. I will go on record stating that I don't believe there is more injury risk in the outfield for Lewis. To the point I would say that idea is bunk.

When the dust settles and we see how they all perform, I just want the best players to play where it benefits the team the most. I don't care where they end up as long as it helps us win. 

I think you are correct about that.  My guess is that part of the trepidation is just Lewis having a little bit of the yips about the outfield since he got hurt there so quickly (and weirdly).  I probably would too until I got used to the idea.   Give it a little time and that flexibility may show itself again — or he may be asked to show it again!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I have a tremendous amount of long term faith in Lewis to become a star, however, like all of last year’s rookie crop, there will likely be some speed bumps along the way — hopefully none of them are injury related and the fans exhibit some patience (!!!) with them.  I think that in time Lewis may get moved off of  third base (or not, and that’s OK too).  I think a lot of whether he gets moved actually depends on Kirilloff.  If Kirilloff displays star level talent at first base, then I think he keeps that spot and Julien stays at second, with Lee becoming the likely third baseman and Lewis going to the outfield.  If Kirilloff doesn’t step forward, then I think Julien is destined for first base, with Lee at second and Lewis at third.  The first situation would be unbelievably great, and the second would be OK as well.  This season will tell a lot about what happens long term.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not really. Early on in the season Lewis was getting lucky, but the way he performed later was the real deal. Lewis hung out at an xwOBA north of .480 for the last 125 or so PA of the season. Ultra elite hitting. As the season progressed, Lewis consistently got better and better.

 

WOW!  That’s a ridiculous level to maintain!   Count me in! 

[D.C Twins]

Royce Lewis has the potential to be the Kirby Puckett equivalent x-factor of this team that gives it a puncher's chance at the WS. (charismatic big game player)

[Mike Sixel]

An exciting starter and good options behind him if there is an injury. What's not to love?

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I have a tremendous amount of long term faith in Lewis to become a star, however, like all of last year’s rookie crop, there will likely be some speed bumps along the way — hopefully none of them are injury related and the fans exhibit some patience (!!!) with them.  I think that in time Lewis may get moved off of  third base (or not, and that’s OK too).  I think a lot of whether he gets moved actually depends on Kirilloff.  If Kirilloff displays star level talent at first base, then I think he keeps that spot and Julien stays at second, with Lee becoming the likely third baseman and Lewis going to the outfield.  If Kirilloff doesn’t step forward, then I think Julien is destined for first base, with Lee at second and Lewis at third.  The first situation would be unbelievably great, and the second would be OK as well.  This season will tell a lot about what happens long term.  

This is exactly the way I see it.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I have a tremendous amount of long term faith in Lewis to become a star, however, like all of last year’s rookie crop, there will likely be some speed bumps along the way — hopefully none of them are injury related and the fans exhibit some patience (!!!) with them.  I think that in time Lewis may get moved off of  third base (or not, and that’s OK too).  I think a lot of whether he gets moved actually depends on Kirilloff.  If Kirilloff displays star level talent at first base, then I think he keeps that spot and Julien stays at second, with Lee becoming the likely third baseman and Lewis going to the outfield.  If Kirilloff doesn’t step forward, then I think Julien is destined for first base, with Lee at second and Lewis at third.  The first situation would be unbelievably great, and the second would be OK as well.  This season will tell a lot about what happens long term.  

I think if Kirilloff shows star talent at 1B and has a big, healthy year it's still far more likely that Julien gets moved to being a primary DH than Lewis gets moved to the OF. Everything the Twins have done and said has them installing Lewis as the every day 3B. Julien had a heck of a year mostly playing 2B and they're still giving Brooks Lee reps there, and likely will give him more time there than at 3B. Kirilloff is more likely to spend time in the OF than Lewis, but fans keep banging away on this "move Lewis to the OF" shtick. 

The only way Lewis is moving off 3B this season is if he gets hurt himself and doesn't play the position, Correa gets hurt and they decide they'd rather have Lewis step back in at SS rather than have Lee try to go there (not sure which way they would go there, but I'm guessing they, like me, would rather not think about it until they need to), or Lewis completely implodes this season.

[DocBauer]

Just a footnote, I think Keaschall should be included as a prospect option at 3B as well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think if Kirilloff shows star talent at 1B and has a big, healthy year it's still far more likely that Julien gets moved to being a primary DH than Lewis gets moved to the OF. Everything the Twins have done and said has them installing Lewis as the every day 3B. Julien had a heck of a year mostly playing 2B and they're still giving Brooks Lee reps there, and likely will give him more time there than at 3B. Kirilloff is more likely to spend time in the OF than Lewis, but fans keep banging away on this "move Lewis to the OF" shtick. 

The only way Lewis is moving off 3B this season is if he gets hurt himself and doesn't play the position, Correa gets hurt and they decide they'd rather have Lewis step back in at SS rather than have Lee try to go there (not sure which way they would go there, but I'm guessing they, like me, would rather not think about it until they need to), or Lewis completely implodes this season.

You might be correct.  For me though, having Lewis in the OF is likely to result in a better, more athletic OF defensively (he’s certainly more athletic than Kirilloff or Julian), while keeping everybody in the mix offensively.  I don’t think Rocco wants a full time DH unless something obvious forces his hand like a Thome or a Big Papi.  He would like to use it as the half day off for key contributors.  I think Buxton’s parking place there at the beginning of last season was one of the reasons for the team’s slow start offensively. 

[jorgenswest]

4 hours ago, Eris said:

I think this is a correct assessment on the 3B depth chart also the possibility that Correa moves off SS towards the end of his contract. 
 

in addition, Miranda was/is a poor defender at 3B. 

I hope Miranda gets time at 3B in AAA. His RAA and DRS were both 0 in 2022. He did poorly last year with the bad shoulder out of spring training.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins might better utilize Lewis’ athleticism in the outfield. I know the front office said last year that he would stay in the infield for 2023. That made sense with the injury return in May with no spring training. The outfield could be thin without him to start 2025.

[Shaitan]

This team has built impressive depth.

[Shaitan]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure if this is tongue in cheek or if you are serious?

I do think they may move him to LF…..  maybe even later this year.

Lewis - Buxton/Castro/Martin - Wallner in OF for ‘25………room for Larnach too!

Lee - CC - Julien/Martin - Kirilloff & maybe Miranda? in IF.

Lewis plays 3B a bunch v. LH pitching until Lee is competent form the right side of the plate.

Castro & Kirilloff & Lewis & Martin could all go back & forth from OF to IF as needed.

To me, LF is less physically demanding than 3B for Lewis & it opens up a spot for Lee’s best worth, along with Julien.

I get the logic, but to me 3B is a defensive position where, if it's working, you don't move the player to a new position until their defense falls off.

[gman]

People seem to be forgetting, but there are super star players at third base. Even a few have made the hall of fame over time. Having a player like Lewis, nail down third base, for the next ten years and playing at an allstar level would be the ultimate we should expect. Leave him there and don't worry about it. We have other players that can be moved to left field or second base or anywhere else for that matter.

[wabene]

3 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Kirilloff is more likely to spend time in the OF than Lewis, but fans keep banging away on this "move Lewis to the OF" shtick. 

Is anyone really pressing the idea of moving Lewis to the outfield? It doesn't seem that way to me. I would say it is the opposite, that there are people banging away against him ever moving there. Many because they believe he would somehow be more apt to be injured there. I'm simply suggesting that it may be a good solution if all the cards fall a certain way. I'm open to it if it makes the most sense. I am against moving Julien or any player to full time DH. A guy like Nelson Cruz would be worth losing the roster flexibility, but he was special.