Manuel Margot Is the Right Fit for Minnesota's Needs and Budget

[Theodore Tollefson]

Manuel Margot is the final addition to the Twins roster, but how well does he fit both in his role as the fourth outfielder and his cost?

Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Payroll. It’s been the topic of endless discussion for Twins fans this offseason and now it appears to be locked in for Opening Day 2024. 

Manuel Margot was the last addition to round out the Twins' needs for the coming season: a right-handed hitting outfielder who can platoon at each outfield position. The best part of the deal for the Twins front office though? The Twins will only have to pay Margot $4 million of the $10 million he’s owed in 2024 and are free of the $2 million buyout in his contract. 

This final addition puts the Twins payroll for Opening Day at approximately $129 million, down $26 million from the franchise record-high payroll of $155 million in 2023. 

The Twins were never shy about their payroll going down this season, the main source – as they claimed – being the loss of revenue from their TV deal with Diamond Sports. They are back with Diamond again in 2024 but the amount of money they receive in this one-year deal is unknown. 

What is known is the Twins' self-imposed budget is in full effect. Twins owner Joe Pohlad doubled down last week in an interview with WCCO Radio's Jason DeRusha. 

“We're not going to go out and spend $30 million on a player right now," Pohlad said to DeRusha. "So, the players that are out there right that a bunch of fans are talking about, we're not in the market for those players. But there are players that can have a positive impact on our team that Derek, I'm sure, is looking at. I'm not involved in those so I'm not going to say this player or that player."

And Derek Falvey did deliver in finding a player the front office believes will positively impact their team. Margot arrived in camp from the Dodgers Spring Training in Arizona faster than any player has made the journey before according to Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. 

“I’ve never seen someone make the Phoenix to Fort Myers trip that quick,” he said to beat reporters in Florida on Tuesday. 

 

The more positive upside with Margot on paper is the Twins front office will only have to pay a portion of his $10 million owed this season, and it’s within the budget. The $4 million the Twins will be covering in Margot this season freed up the exact amount the Dodgers resigned one of their own alumni the Twins had conversations with this off-season; Kiké Hernández. 

Just days before the trade the Twins were listed as a finalist for Hernández in his free agency pursuit. Hernández is still considered a super-utility defender, playing over 20 games at shortstop, second base, and center field in 2023. 

His offensive numbers on the other hand have been in decline for the last two seasons going from a 108 OPS+ with the Red Sox in 2021 to a 75 OPS+ in 2022 and 74 OPS+ in 2023. 

Hernández has no true defensive home and his offensive promise did not fit in as well with the Twins' needs as it does the Dodgers. Margot, on the other hand, fills their needs and platoon roles much better than Hernández could. While both have a combined OPS+ below league average over the last three seasons, Margot’s sits at a 97 OPS+ compared to Hernández 87 OPS+.

The results speak for themselves between Margot and Hernández at the plate and with the plethora of infield prospects currently in the Twins system, Hernández’s playing time would have been much more limited than it will be with the Dodgers this year. 

Margot is the Twins fourth outfielder to start the 2024 season. He will likely see starts in center field at least once every series pending the health of Byron Buxton to start the season. 

So far Buxton is looking as healthy as he’s ever been in Spring Training over the last five years, offeirng reason to believe Margot will not see too many starts in center to start the year. Margot will certainly come in as a late-game defensive replacement as needed between Buxton and Matt Wallner in left field. 

While the addition of Margot does fall under Twins fans' criticism of ownership and the phrase, “Cheap Pohlads,” his playing caliber is not equal to the cheapness of his salary. He’s a player worth $12 million that the Twins essentially only have to pay a third of. 

The criticisms will still be heard throughout the year but Margot’s role and highest ceiling of performance can quiet down the conversations of payroll that remained at the forefront of the Twins offseason. 

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Where do you stand on the Manuel Margot acquisition? Is he a solid budget-friendly pickup or do you wish the Twins would've invested more to address this need? Share your thoughts in the comments!

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[awmonahan]

I think he's a great fit as a 4th OF, given his versatility, clubhouse presence, and that he hits lefties. Ideally, we wouldn't give up prospects for a 4th OF. I'm not Miller's greatest fan, but he had value. But, a player like Margot could have been gotten for cash. 

[GKuehl]

At this price, Margot is as good of a player as we could have hoped to get. It's nice to have a genuine alternative for when Buxton inevitably (and sadly) hits the IL so we don't have to turn to WIlli Castro as our every day Centerfielder. I was hoping to sign Duvall, but I'm guessing he was out of our price range, plus he isn't a viable CF'er any longer, so he likely would only have been an option in the Corner OF spots and DH. 

Plus, with the prospect swap, it feels like we didn't give up much if anything for Margot -- there's a strong case that Doncon is a better prospect than Noah Miller. 

[Eris]

Which Margot are we getting, the 2021 version with 13 DRS or the 2023 version with below average defense and below average offensive. If it is the 2023 version, then no thank you. 

[stringer bell]

Is Margot booked to back up Buxton 100% of the time? Willi Castro brought a lot of value to the team last year and I wonder if a day off for Buxton might mean a day in center for Willi sometimes, especially if he has a platoon advantage over Margot. 

 

[Karbo]

I'm just not ready to drink this kool-aid yet. I would have rather seen Martin or one of the other kids up. We could have kept Miller, who I believe will be a gold or even platinum glove SS when he figures out the hitting side, rather than a 1 year rental.

[Doctor Gast]

I was an advocate to get Margot when he was good, less expensive & we really needed him. Now he's not the same OFer that he was, more expensive although TB is flipping most of the tab and Buck is healthier than he has been for years, Castro is a very capable Buxton sub with Martin waiting in the wings with all his talents & others. I think everybody here knows where I stand on Miller. Doncon is a Sano-type SS, who's a liability defensively wherever he plays so he'll end up at 1B/ DH & he'll be developed into a strike-out machine. He'll add to our large glut. Miller is an undeveloped contact hitter who happens to be the minor league GG. IMO there's no comparison, Miller is by far more valuable & LAD is not dumb they can see it, and that's why they targeted him.

I like Margot but not at the expense of Miller.

[wombat28]

I read last week in a national report the tv money is only $8 million less than the previous year, yet payroll is $26 million less? 

[Schmoeman5]

Miller. He will go down as the greatest glove at SS. If Jeffers were the guy traded. It would be jubilation. Even if the Twins got Roseboro in return.

[Fatbat]

The FO should get an A for the assignment of getting the best 4th OF available for such a low price.  Even tho Miller will be missed, Doncon may lessen that blow if he ever makes it to the show. In a offseason when the FO could have simply sold the farm to have immediate impact, they have actually made it stronger….and improved the varsity!  Margo is arguably the best 4th OF we have had in forever.  Now lets play some ball!!!⚾️

[darin617]

Just wait and see what MAT signs for. If it is close to the 4M Margot will be paid I will not be happy.

[akmanak]

Not much really stands out about this player. Bats average, defense is average, weaker arm and average speed. 

Well at least the Twins justified making a splash in FA with this pickup. 

[mikelink45]

Not ready to buy into the optimism of this article.  I hope you are right, but all the reflections in TD are based on hope rather than fact.  Let's see.  I was content with Castro as backup and Martin behind him.

Margot is a one year player if I understand his contract.  Next year he will be too expensive so is it worth it to hold back on development of a player like Martin?

[Brandon]

The keys for Margot to be considered a success here is a positive impact on defense and a .750+ OPS against left handed pitchers.  Being a solid base runner helps too.  Hopefully his knee has healed and he is back to being that above average defender of the OF we need.  
 

On a side note the payroll is at 129 million.  The range was 125-140 million.  I wonder if the Twins are drawing well and needed a starting pitcher for the playoffs if the Twins would make a trade and be willing to add up to 10-11 million in payroll for that starter.  More likely for 1/3 of a season the starter we acquire would likely be in the 5-9 million in salary remaining but it seems we do have the payroll space to add if a) it’s needed and b) the attendance and revenue say we are on track to hit the goals.  We did pick up more prospects this offseason to allow that to happen.  

[Brandon]

3 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Not ready to buy into the optimism of this article.  I hope you are right, but all the reflections in TD are based on hope rather than fact.  Let's see.  I was content with Castro as backup and Martin behind him.

Margot is a one year player if I understand his contract.  Next year he will be too expensive so is it worth it to hold back on development of a player like Martin?

If Margot has a big year say .800 OPS and 8 defensive runs saved then we could pick up his option and trade him for a prospect.

[DJL44]

Noah Miller = Nick Ahmed.

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was an advocate to get Margot when he was good, less expensive & we really needed him. Now he's not the same OFer that he was, more expensive although TB is flipping most of the tab and Buck is healthier than he has been for years, Castro is a very capable Buxton sub with Martin waiting in the wings with all his talents & others. I think everybody here knows where I stand on Miller. Miller is an undeveloped contact hitter who happens to be the minor league GG. IMO there's no comparison, Miller is by far more valuable & LAD is not dumb they can see it, and that's why they targeted him.

 

So the Dodgers can foresee the future. And the Twins FO isn't good at evaluating some talent but they are good at evaluating others. You're putting emotional attachment above all else.  I'll be honest. I haven't seen Miller. If he's as great as what you're claiming. Then you'd be right. Have you seen Doncon? Sano type? Sano was Sanos worst enemy. I think the Twins should hire you to evaluate talent.

[DaveW44]

He is a step up from Kyle Garlick. A big giant step. 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So the Dodgers can foresee the future. And the Twins FO isn't good at evaluating some talent but they are good at evaluating others. You're putting emotional attachment above all else.  I'll be honest. I haven't seen Miller. If he's as great as what you're claiming. Then you'd be right. Have you seen Doncon? Sano type? Sano was Sanos worst enemy. I think the Twins should hire you to evaluate talent.

Good evaluators can look at a player & see the future. Twins only look at big bats That's who they draft (Rooker, Sabato, Cavaco, Larnach etc.), their development is focused on how many HRs they squeeze out of every player and sign worthless FAs like Gallo.

Doncon, I read his scouting report. Twins made Sano their "moonshot" poster child, All that fame went to his head. Their focus was to have Sano hit his 500' moonshots. That focused swing killed him as a hitter.

People like to put the "emotional attachment" label on me, but that doesn't fly. Because I place value on defense up the middle & you favor the Twins view that big bats solve everything. Sure, I'd like a GG SS with a big bat (depending on how prolific his SO rate is) but any competitive team knows that gloves trump bats up the middle. cOF, 1B/ DH yeah sure bats trump gloves. People accused me of being emotional attached to Polanco. No it was just a bad trade because we didn't filled any needs & we lost a lot. But if we traded Polanco in combination with other players for Harry Ford (C/ SEA) I'd be 100% in, This emotional attachment is just a ploy to make me look irrational. I'm not into social media so I'm not persuaded by people who have agendas. I observe, put pieces together and make a reasonable assumption. that's very rational.

I think the Twins should hire you to evaluate talent.       It won't do any good because they'll give away all those who I give high marks to.

[D.C Twins]

I think that 'Budget' in the title of an article has officially replaced 'Buxton Health' as the biggest click bait to rile up the TD faithful :)

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, darin617 said:

Just wait and see what MAT signs for. If it is close to the 4M Margot will be paid I will not be happy.

Watching that as well but rumor is that the Twins made offers that were likely a bit higher.  If he doesn't sign somewhere until someone needs an injury fill in it changes what the value would be.  He's more than $4m either way. 

But also, Margot is a $10m player, at least by his contract and Fangraphs as a $10m average for his career.  I've started thinking of this payroll as $143m rather than $129m.  With $14m being paid by other teams the assembled players are still $143m worth of cash.  It could also be looked at as the Twins spending $14m worth of prospects to get their cash number down.  Still a $143m roster. Maybe its cope but that makes the decline from last year about on par with the rest of the league.

I really like the Margot fit for this roster.  If Martin or someone beats the door down, he's a great trade chip again at $4m.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Is Margot booked to back up Buxton 100% of the time? Willi Castro brought a lot of value to the team last year and I wonder if a day off for Buxton might mean a day in center for Willi sometimes, especially if he has a platoon advantage over Margot. 

 

To me, Margot is the 5th outfielder. ….Buxton has good reverse splits v. RH pitching but Castro will see CF at least 60 games if not 90, IMO. Buxton, to stay healthy, has to be at DH fairly regularly. Margot in LF v. LH pitching makes perfect sense…….that’s 45 starts or so right there. Another 35 starts or so in CF & that’s half the schedule.

From above, not sure in what universe Margot is a late inning defensive replacement for Byron Buxton in CF………maybe if Buxton just hit an inside the park HR?

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

If Margot has a big year say .800 OPS and 8 defensive runs saved then we could pick up his option and trade him for a prospect.

He has posted an OPS north of .700 once in his career, and that was seven seasons ago.  

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

From above, not sure in what universe Margot is a late inning defensive replacement for Byron Buxton in CF………maybe if Buxton just hit an inside the park HR?

We could certainly see it in a blow out. No need to use up Buxton reps in low leverage innings. Having someone who isn't a train wreck in center makes it much easier to get Buck off his feet from time to time.

Cheers to the offense getting Buck some rest.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He has posted an OPS north of .700 once in his career, and that was seven seasons ago.  

He will be platooned mostly this year.  You are better served looking at his stats vs left handed pitchers.  

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Good evaluators can look at a player & see the future. Twins only look at big bats That's who they draft (Rooker, Sabato, Cavaco, Larnach etc.), their development is focused on how many HRs they squeeze out of every player and sign worthless FAs like Gallo.

Doncon, I read his scouting report. Twins made Sano their "moonshot" poster child, All that fame went to his head. Their focus was to have Sano hit his 500' moonshots. That focused swing killed him as a hitter.

People like to put the "emotional attachment" label on me, but that doesn't fly. Because I place value on defense up the middle & you favor the Twins view that big bats solve everything. Sure, I'd like a GG SS with a big bat (depending on how prolific his SO rate is) but any competitive team knows that gloves trump bats up the middle. cOF, 1B/ DH yeah sure bats trump gloves. People accused me of being emotional attached to Polanco. No it was just a bad trade because we didn't filled any needs & we lost a lot. But if we traded Polanco in combination with other players for Harry Ford (C/ SEA) I'd be 100% in, This emotional attachment is just a ploy to make me look irrational. I'm not into social media so I'm not persuaded by people who have agendas. I observe, put pieces together and make a reasonable assumption. that's very rational.

I think the Twins should hire you to evaluate talent.       It won't do any good because they'll give away all those who I give high marks to.

I'm NOT and never will be a champion of Homeruns or nothing. I love guys like Arreaz.  High OBP guys who will get on and score runs. Sure the homers are great. But when you see hitter after hitter on dead pull and struggling to put balls in play it IS frustrating.  But that doesn't mean Miller is  ever going to be a high OBP type guy either. Maybe his glove does play right now. So if his glove plays, where do you put him?  Move Carlos to 3rd and Lewis to 2nd or maybe a corner OF spot.  Tell me your plan for 2024 with this roster and include Noah Miller as your starting SS. 

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Noah Miller = Nick Ahmed.

Noah Miller = A poor hitting Nick Punto and 

[specialiststeve]

Very solid move. Needed a quality 4th OF that was a right hand bat. Folks want to make this so emotional.. LOL 

4 Mil for a quality 4th OF is a good deal. Plenty of season and injuries for the AAA guys to get their cup of coffee. 

As far as the Minor leaguers involved.. Miller has a great glove but NO bat. TON of those in the minors.. Doncon has a MUCH higher ceiling with his bat and if he hits and has a respectable glove he has a shot at the show.. Miller .. not so much. 

Smart move.. not earth shattering but will help .. 

[KirbyDome89]

28 minutes ago, Brandon said:

He will be platooned mostly this year.  You are better served looking at his stats vs left handed pitchers.  

Not if he's CF insurance. 

[Doctor Gast]

23 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I'm NOT and never will be a champion of Homeruns or nothing. I love guys like Arreaz.  High OBP guys who will get on and score runs. Sure the homers are great. But when you see hitter after hitter on dead pull and struggling to put balls in play it IS frustrating.  But that doesn't mean Miller is  ever going to be a high OBP type guy either. Maybe his glove does play right now. So if his glove plays, where do you put him?  Move Carlos to 3rd and Lewis to 2nd or maybe a corner OF spot.  Tell me your plan for 2024 with this roster and include Noah Miller as your starting SS. 

I wouldn't mind a line-up full of Arraez-type hitters. Miller was drafted as a high-contact hitter, what I heard from a Dodger site that they expect to increase Miller's already good walk percentage & develop that high-contact hitter. Miller is still young there is no rush to bring him up. But when he's ready & hitting(maybe '26 or later), Correa would be ready to move to 3rd, Lee at 2B. At that time we'd have to decide if Lewis could be transitioned to the OF. It's good to keep your options open.  But I'm not confident that the Twins could develop him into a contact hitter so maybe it's for the best. but sad.