3 True Lies From the Twins Offseason

[Cody Christie]

Twins fans’ morale should be near an all-time high entering the 2024 campaign. Instead, the club spread what can be perceived as true lies this winter that will impact the organization beyond the current season.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers earlier this week, which is typically a time for fans to get excited about the upcoming season. Teams try to build support throughout the winter by hosting events like Twins Fest and Winter Caravan, where leaders from the team can answer questions from fans and the media. The Twins have tried to spin different storylines this winter and direct the narrative surrounding the team. Unfortunately, those quotes looked like the truth at the time and have morphed into lies, whether intentional or not.

True Lie 1: There will be no blackouts in 2024
Current impact: The Twins are back on Bally Sports North for the 2024 season, which means fans will be limited in how they can consume the team’s games. Cory Provus, the team’s new television announcer, and others in the organization told fans that blackouts were going away. However, those statements were made before Amazon made a deal with Diamond Sports, BSN’s parent company, to save them from bankruptcy. The Twins decided to return to BSN for one more season because of an estimated $30-40 million being paid to the team. Fans hoping for easier access to television broadcasts, especially streaming, are left searching for other options for one more year.

Future impact: The Twins are among a group of teams who will be television free agents next winter. MLB has a few options with these clubs if they package them together as one group of 12-15 clubs. They can offer television and streaming rights to a larger company like Amazon or Apple to broadcast through their platforms. Another option is for MLB to take over the broadcasts for these teams, which is something teams like the Colorado Rockies are doing this year. Overall, there should be more access to Twins games in 2025, but there are no guarantees in a quickly changing television landscape. 

True Lie 2: The Twins must cut payroll.
Current impact: Minnesota’s front office was very forthcoming at the start of the offseason that the team’s payroll would be dropping. Fans were told it was necessary because the team expected to lose significant revenue due to the lack of a television contract. Last year, the Twins earned $54 million in television revenue, dropping the payroll from $159 million to around $124 million. Minnesota received an influx of revenue with their one-year renewal with Diamond Sports, but there are no signs the team is about to embark on a spending spree. It seems likely for the team to add one more right-handed outfield bat, which should keep the payroll under $130 million for 2024. 

Future impact: If asked about the payroll, the Twins would likely point to the young players on the roster and say there would be a natural decline in payroll. Many of those players have yet to hit arbitration, which means they are making close to the minimum salary. Starting next year, Pablo Lopez sees his contract rise from $8.25 million to $21.75 million. There will also be a slough of players eligible for arbitration for the first time, including Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Duran. The Twins roster will get expensive in a hurry, and those issues will only be further magnified if ownership continues to limit spending.

True Lie 3: The front office is attempting to improve the team.
Current impact: Every contending team enters the offseason hoping to make improvements to their roster. This proposition was difficult for the Twins because of the organization’s self-imposed payroll limits. The team also lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, two starters who recently finished runner-up for the Cy Young. Derek Falvey was clear at the Winter Meetings that the Twins would attempt to trade some of their veteran players, with Jorge Polanco being the lone casualty at this point. Minnesota turned him into a fifth starter, a late-inning reliever, and two prospects. Strictly on value, the Twins did well in this trade, but it’s easy to argue that the current roster is worse than last year.

Future impact: The front office will always make moves where the Twins acquire more value. The Polanco trade is just one example of this type of swap. On the eve of the 2022 season, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers, the team’s closer, and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. It was a move that made sense from a value perspective, but the timing of the trade seemed suboptimal for clubhouse morale. Unless the payroll situation drastically changes, the front office must continue making value trades, even if it hurts the current roster. Expensive veterans must be shed, especially when a large chunk of the team’s payroll is tied to Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Pablo Lopez. Dropping payroll by $30 million will make any team worse unless the team’s young core takes massive strides forward in 2024.

On the surface, the Twins weren't trying to lie to fans, but that is the perception with the way the situations above have transpired in recent months. Some fans were already wary about the team’s historical spending record, and those worries have been multiplied this winter. Minnesota is still the odds-on favorite to win the AL Central, but it’s tough to be optimistic about how the offseason played out.

Which true lie is the most disheartening? How does each area impact the team in the long term? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

I think a wait and see attitude is the best course to take at this time. I'm sure the FO is looking to see what is available and at what price, so we wait. Like many others, at this time I just don't see our starters as WS contenders, but that too can change. Last spring I never thought Ober would pitch as well as he did (and stayed healthy) so things can change. Its a long season!

[tony&rodney]

I'll bite. MLB is poorly run IMHO, which leaves teams like the Twins scrambling for media deals. Sinclair/Diamond Sports/Bally are all shaky corporations that have avenues to guarantee their money and flee to bankruptcy when profits drop. Finding a better long term deal through all mediums was and is the better long term play. Maybe someone from the NBA can help, although they also jumped in the sack with Bally. Whatever. The Twins not being available via television in too large of numbers cannot be a good thing for building rapport with a younger audience or their fans in general. Tough deal all around.

A cut in payroll was to be expected (BAM $). How much was/is up for debate. Other than possibly Lourdes Gurriel Jr., I cannot think of too many players who would have improved the team coming aboard via free agency. This position comes from a belief that the Twins are not going to sign pitchers to high dollar, multiple year contracts from the FA bin. If they were, Yamamoto would have been the guy but clearly, no question,  he was going to the Dodgers all along. 

Falvey was likely sending and reading texts all winter. The Twins wanted to add a strong pitcher with years of control. So did/does everyone else. There seemed to be two problems from my guesses. The ask from other teams made Falvey (Twins) uncomfortable would have been the major issue. Secondly, the Twins seemed intent on making a trade before Spring Training. Of course this is pure speculation. By waiting the price for Polanco would have risen quite a bit, but that is a gamble that seemed worthwhile. The Twins decided exactly where they could act and added a back end starter, a mid inning bullpen piece, and two lower level prospects of some promise. Plus, as Falvey stated, Santana was added from the Polanco money. Thus, I would say the Twins tried to improve the team. Did they improve. We will know that answer at a later date.

All speculation on any budget for the team next year will be put on hold pending a large leap in attendance,  the excessive bounty from winning the 2024 World Series and a new, favorable media deal.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

For quite a few years I have been extremely optimistic heading into Spring Training and the season.  Understanding the constraints the FO has worked under, it always felt like the Twins were either working to improve or actually improving.  Signings and trades made in an effort to improve the team.

This is the first time in a long time I am absolutely disgusted by the way the offseason was handled.  Coming off a team that had World Series hopes in 2023 and potential WS expectations heading into 2024, the Admin used the TV contract situation to cut payroll knowing full well they would be getting most, if not all of that back before the season started.  Then pocketing that money when it came in, despite promising to use a percentage of income for player payroll.  This team is easily 5-7 games worse this year in a division that is the worst in baseball.

We all know the Pohlads are directing the FO on the finances, so the FO gets somewhat of a pass on this, but this whole situation smells of 2000-era contraction garbage.  This is one fan the team will have to work harder to appease this year.  

[Nashvilletwin]

Sorry Cody - I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree with much of it.

First, you make is sound like the Twins’ ownership and FO are nefarious, duplicitous actors.  That’s a pretty harsh take, even in this day and age where everything one reads is essentially a lie.  
 

The TV deal has been in flux for quite a while and the organization never held the right cards to be able to drive their preferred deal. 

The team has been very transparent about their payroll targets and a) as you point out, the roster costs are going up next year and b) this year is not done yet (perhaps there is some cash awaiting to be spent at the deadline).

You cannot categorically say this projected lineup is worse than last year’s at this time. A healthy Buxton on its own might make this team better.  There is no question our bullpen is significantly better and deeper. The jury is still out on how Paddock and DeSclafani will perform vs. Gray and Maeda, and Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland should all be better than where they were expected to be at this time last year.  Sure, we lost the oft injured fan favorite in Polanco, but Julien and Wallner are way better than Larnach and Miranda.  And let’s not forget how much better Jeffers is now. Last year’s season was saved by those three players.

Let’s just see how it goes before condemning the team’s leadership this off-season.  

 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

For quite a few years I have been extremely optimistic heading into Spring Training and the season.  Understanding the constraints the FO has worked under, it always felt like the Twins were either working to improve or actually improving.  Signings and trades made in an effort to improve the team.

This is the first time in a long time I am absolutely disgusted by the way the offseason was handled.  Coming off a team that had World Series hopes in 2023 and potential WS expectations heading into 2024, the Admin used the TV contract situation to cut payroll knowing full well they would be getting most, if not all of that back before the season started.  Then pocketing that money when it came in, despite promising to use a percentage of income for player payroll.  This team is easily 5-7 games worse this year in a division that is the worst in baseball.

We all know the Pohlads are directing the FO on the finances, so the FO gets somewhat of a pass on this, but this whole situation smells of 2000-era contraction garbage.  This is one fan the team will have to work harder to appease this year.  

FDG, I personally am on the complete other side of the fence on your take.  I respect it, but I disagree.  I’m quite excited about where this team is headed this season, way more than last season when the team was filled with a bunch of “one and dones”.  We will be better than competitive, we have one of the top five projected pitching staffs in the majors (when were we last able to say that), and we get to see a bunch of young, exciting talent.  The team will be good and the entertainment value high. 

[Karbo]

49 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sorry Cody - I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree with much of it.

First, you make is sound like the Twins’ ownership and FO are nefarious, duplicitous actors.  That’s a pretty harsh take, even in this day and age where everything one reads is essentially a lie.  
 

The TV deal has been in flux for quite a while and the organization never held the right cards to be able to drive their preferred deal. 

The team has been very transparent about their payroll targets and a) as you point out, the roster costs are going up next year and b) this year is not done yet (perhaps there is some cash awaiting to be spent at the deadline).

You cannot categorically say this projected lineup is worse than last year’s at this time. A healthy Buxton on its own might make this team better.  There is no question our bullpen is significantly better and deeper. The jury is still out on how Paddock and DeSclafani will perform vs. Gray and Maeda, and Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland should all be better than where they were expected to be at this time last year.  Sure, we lost the oft injured fan favorite in Polanco, but Julien and Wallner are way better than Larnach and Miranda.  And let’s not forget how much better Jeffers is now. Last year’s season was saved by those three players.

Let’s just see how it goes before condemning the team’s leadership this off-season.  

 

I hope you're right about the pen. I agree its deeper, but the skeptic in me wonders if some of these guys had a "career" year. not much history for guys in the 30's.

[IndianaTwin]

39 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sorry Cody - I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree with much of it.

First, you make is sound like the Twins’ ownership and FO are nefarious, duplicitous actors.  That’s a pretty harsh take, even in this day and age where everything one reads is essentially a lie.  
 

The TV deal has been in flux for quite a while and the organization never held the right cards to be able to drive their preferred deal. 

The team has been very transparent about their payroll targets and a) as you point out, the roster costs are going up next year and b) this year is not done yet (perhaps there is some cash awaiting to be spent at the deadline).

You cannot categorically say this projected lineup is worse than last year’s at this time. A healthy Buxton on its own might make this team better.  There is no question our bullpen is significantly better and deeper. The jury is still out on how Paddock and DeSclafani will perform vs. Gray and Maeda, and Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland should all be better than where they were expected to be at this time last year.  Sure, we lost the oft injured fan favorite in Polanco, but Julien and Wallner are way better than Larnach and Miranda.  And let’s not forget how much better Jeffers is now. Last year’s season was saved by those three players.

Let’s just see how it goes before condemning the team’s leadership this off-season.  

 

Amen, @Nashvilletwin. 

All offseason, many have been honked off that the Twins stated last fall that the payroll was going down. As armchair accountants, many of us have claimed that it didn't need to, blah, blah, blah, without truly having an understanding of their finances and where they are going in years to come.

It may or may not have needed to go down. I don't know about that, but I generally trust people who have more information over those who have less. But if they were going to choose to have it go down, it makes total sense to name that to the public in advance. It's a truism of public relations that you want to be transparent when presenting bad news. 

Look at it another way, folks. If they hadn't announced that spending would be down, the natural assumption on TD is likely that it's going to increase. If it was $159M last year, folks here would be assuming that this year would be $165M or more. Can you imagine how freaked people would be at this point if they were expecting $165M and we ended up where we are now?

 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

People want the flashy moves, I get it. Would have been nice for the Twins to win the off-season. Instead, they flew under the radar and built one of the better bullpens in baseball. IYAM, this team on paper, might be better suited for a run in October especially if Ryan and Ober take the next step in their development.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Also, this team has a handful of players - Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Ryan, Ober - where if they each hit their ceiling whether its 2024 or 2025, you're looking at one of the most talented rosters in baseball. 

I said this is another thread and I'll repeat it here. I know health is the gargantuan IF, but IF Buxton, Correa and Lewis are healthy and playing up to expectations, how many teams have that kind of talent in their everyday lineup. 

[nicksaviking]

I agree the Twins TV deal was an absolute disaster. How they didn't see it coming that they'd get played like a puppet is embarrassing.

However, lies 2 and 3 don't track for me. Increasing the payroll to improve the team after that fiasco a couple weeks ago seems like an oxymoron. You don't improve the team, now or especially in the future, just by spending money on free agents the rest of the league is showing to be tepid on. There were only a few good free agents who would have helped this team and they were already gone, even if money was freed up, the only improvement was coming from within the organization or via trade.

[jorgenswest]

I needed to look up true lie. It seems like it would have better to simply lie.

Would they have sold more tickets without telling us that the budget would be cut? Lie about the budget and sell more tickets.

Would they have not signed Farmer or Santana if they didn’t think they were trying to improve the team? Adding short side platoon players or old 5th starters don’t move the needle towards improvement. Really lie and say you couldn’t get any players to sign and go with the inexpensive players.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

16 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

I said this is another thread and I'll repeat it here. I know health is the gargantuan IF, but IF Buxton, Correa and Lewis are healthy and playing up to expectations, how many teams have that kind of talent in their everyday lineup. 

I think most playoff type teams have the equivalent of those 3.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

It is a shame we (I) get so worked up over the lack of off season acquisitions,  when we (I) really don't have enough facts regarding why the FO does what it does. I wish he Twins FO could convince me  that it was being completely transparent, however sometimes rumors and quotes and interviews are used as negotiation tactics to  try to get closer to a figure, or a trade, which both sides can agree on. Puffery comes into play also. It is a fine line between what is acceptable puffery and what is not acceptable puffery and what are just downright lies. We've all done it. When we tell an auto salesman we can't go that high, but we  really will, or we decline an insurance settlement offer  and say we can't take less than X amount to settle, when we really will. It is called the art of negotiation. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

#1 - It may be a lie in the end, but with how vociferous Cory Provus was at the time they announced there wouldn't be blackouts I am convinced they believed that to be true. They didn't see Amazon bailing out Diamond Sports, so if they weren't going to be locked into the same contract they wouldn't have blackouts. I think the worst part of this reality is that they ended up with a pretty good TV deal (we assume) and still cut payroll, which is #2. 

#3 - Unless you are saying the Front Office is responsible for payroll cuts/restriction, I don't know how you can blame then for not "attempting to improve the team." I think it's at least arguable that the team was improved after the Polanco trade. I also think calling Maeda a "recent Cy Young runner up" is a bit of a stretch. He'd be the 5th starter on this team. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

31 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I think most playoff type teams have the equivalent of those 3.

Going with that premise then, the Twins are a playoff team and as we saw last year with Texas and Arizona, anything can happen.

Some of the handwringing, you'd think the Twins have Terry Jorgensen and Scott Stahoviak at the corner infield spots and JT Bruett in center.

[tony&rodney]

When comparing the 2023 and 2024 Twins, one can only look at the beginning of the year. Compare the squads of Opening Day then and OD now. It is nonsense to compare the best of the 2023 Twins, which was the team late in the year to the pure speculation of what the 2024 team may do. Be patient and wait to make that comparison - say November.

I picked the Twins, in a recent poll on TD, to win 85 games in this coming season and win the AL Central. Think plus or minus five games. I did pick the Twins for 87 wins in mid February. Last season I think I picked the Twins to win the AL Central with 83 victories (again, plus or minus five).

Straight beginning of the year is a little early because changes could happen ..... but I will pick the 2024 team.

Catching - + for '24; 1B - + for '24, 2B - + for '24 (Polanco was hurt), 3B - + for '24, SS - same, OF - + for '24.

SP - Lopez, Ober, and Ryan - + for '24, Maeda vs Paddack is a wash, Gray is a big + for '23. Pen - + for '24. 

Minor league potential call ups is a big + for '23. 

This is merely start of the year comparisons and even that is too soon to do. 2024 is better if we just go position by position from last year at this time versus right now. It is old school hands on the bat, kick the bat, and pick your team. 

I believe Falvey sees the 2024 Twins as improved as well. I certainly question a few things but I do think he worked to improve the team in his viewpoint.

[chpettit19]

I think the first 2 lies are tied to the same, mishandled situation...the TV contract. They didn't think they were going back to Ballys. They didn't think it was even going to be an option because they were going to fold up shop after 2024. So they were expecting to jump on the MLB streaming situation as the 4th option and were just waiting for that to all be finalized and see what kind of money that could produce, knowing it'd likely be significantly less. So they tried to balance the "we're cutting payroll" news with "but there won't be any blackouts!" news, but in the end it turned out they cut payroll and continued with the blackouts. That's where my frustrations come in the most. I believe they planned their payroll around the idea that they wouldn't be getting much, if any, TV money this year. But they are. And that didn't change their payroll plan. That's frustrating. And incredibly poorly handled messaging, if you ask me. You're not improving your viewership base, in fact you openly admit that it's likely going to be worse this year than last year as more people have "cut the cord," but you also hurt yourself by announcing a payroll decrease and tying it to the idea of expanded viewing options. Just horribly done, in my opinion.

As for lie 3, I think it's actually true. The FO, as we speak about it, is trying to improve the team. The FO we talk about is the baseball ops department, and they're trying to improve the team within the limitations provided by the ownership/business department. The ownership/business department side isn't looking to improve the team, they're looking to improve profits. They have a desire to maximize profits in the near-term instead of working to improve them in the long-term. They could've decided to say "no" to Ballys and gone with the less lucrative "no blackouts" option to help grow their fanbase. Instead they went for the option with more money involved and set themselves up for Dave St Pete to again question why fans don't seem to be as supportive as he expected. Hopefully he throws in another "we're not tone deaf" like he did in his Athletic interview last week.

So, really, all 3 came down to the TV deal and how they chose to handle that. But "lie" 3 really isn't a lie unless you're talking about the business department and not baseball ops department. Because when you're this deep into a baseball ops gig like Falvine is you don't have the luxury of not trying to improve the team. Not many people in those positions feel confident enough in their job status to pitch a step back in year 7 after an ALDS appearance.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

When comparing the 2023 and 2024 Twins, one can only look at the beginning of the year. Compare the squads of Opening Day then and OD now. It is nonsense to compare the best of the 2023 Twins, which was the team late in the year to the pure speculation of what the 2024 team may do. Be patient and wait to make that comparison - say November.

I picked the Twins, in a recent poll on TD, to win 85 games in this coming season and win the AL Central. Think plus or minus five games. I did pick the Twins for 87 wins in mid February. Last season I think I picked the Twins to win the AL Central with 83 victories (again, plus or minus five).

Straight beginning of the year is a little early because changes could happen ..... but I will pick the 2024 team.

Catching - + for '24; 1B - + for '24, 2B - + for '24 (Polanco was hurt), 3B - + for '24, SS - same, OF - + for '24.

SP - Lopez, Ober, and Ryan - + for '24, Maeda vs Paddack is a wash, Gray is a big + for '23. Pen - + for '24. 

Minor league potential call ups is a big + for '23. 

This is merely start of the year comparisons and even that is too soon to do. 2024 is better if we just go position by position from last year at this time versus right now. It is old school hands on the bat, kick the bat, and pick your team. 

I believe Falvey sees the 2024 Twins as improved as well. I certainly question a few things but I do think he worked to improve the team in his viewpoint.

Why can we only look at the beginning of the year? Why can't I compare the roster on the last day of the season to the roster today? I sure hope that's what the FO is doing. I hope they're looking at how the season ended and the roster they had at that time and are/have been trying to improve upon that.

I don't get why they'd look at their expectations for Jeffers, for example, going into 2023 and use that to decide if they've improved their chances of winning a world series in 2024 while ignoring what actually took place in 2023. I think it's nonsense to compare opening days when talking about if this team is likely to be better or worse than last year. The goal shouldn't be to improve on the OD 2023 roster for 2024, it should be to improve upon the last day 2023 roster for 2024.

[Drtwins]

The lie that is most disheartening imo is #2, the Twins must cut payroll. I only think it's a partial lie though as they knew the TV deal would be worse than 2023. The issue is they were going to end up with some type of TV deal, so to say they had to cut enough to make up for no TV never made sense. I do understand the argument that the Twins have a lot of good young talent so the extra money might not be needed. 

I believe the Twins were hopeful that numbers 1 and 3 are/would be true. Of course they don't want blackouts and the GM isn't going to intentionally make trades to make the team worse. Even if you believe the Polanco trade might make the team worse this year it will hopefully make the team improved in future years.

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

You cannot categorically say this projected lineup is worse than last year’s at this time. A healthy Buxton on its own might make this team better.  There is no question our bullpen is significantly better and deeper. The jury is still out on how Paddock and DeSclafani will perform vs. Gray and Maeda, and Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland should all be better than where they were expected to be at this time last year.  Sure, we lost the oft injured fan favorite in Polanco, but Julien and Wallner are way better than Larnach and Miranda.  And let’s not forget how much better Jeffers is now. Last year’s season was saved by those three players.

I love the optimism here, but to think every Twins player is going to be better than last year is ridiculous. You are basically saying Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are all going to have career years? And the guy with glass legs is going to get back to his 2017 form. There will likely be just as many players that pull a Miranda or Gordon as there will that have career years like Ober, Lopez, and Jeffers did last year. 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Why can we only look at the beginning of the year? Why can't I compare the roster on the last day of the season to the roster today? I sure hope that's what the FO is doing. I hope they're looking at how the season ended and the roster they had at that time and are/have been trying to improve upon that.

I don't get why they'd look at their expectations for Jeffers, for example, going into 2023 and use that to decide if they've improved their chances of winning a world series in 2024 while ignoring what actually took place in 2023. I think it's nonsense to compare opening days when talking about if this team is likely to be better or worse than last year. The goal shouldn't be to improve on the OD 2023 roster for 2024, it should be to improve upon the last day 2023 roster for 2024.

Well, you can and I have. Certainly the Twins have also been looking at where to get better. The problem with looking at the end of '23 and now is that how or what any specific player will do now is speculation. We know what the team did in September and October last year. Nobody knows how anyone will do this year yet.

So, maybe i need to do this more carefully. How would you, the Twins, or anyone choose to see it?

I would take Vazquez/Jeffers now vs end of year (eoy) V/J because Vazquez will be better and Jeffers should hold his own. 1B - i take AK/CS vs. the injured AK/DS eoy duo. 2B is tough. I take '23 Jorge but am a believer in Julien. RL eoy is a wash with RL now, we hope. Carlos is better now without the PF. Tough to know anything about LF, but Wallner has room for improvement and should have worked to address some weaknesses in the offseason. Tough to take Max now over eoy, but possible, so a wash. I'll take Buck now in CF. Bullpen might favor '23 with Varland there, but it is close. The current bullpen has depth. I believe Pablo eoy was peak, so that is a high bar. I still believe he will be good this year. I see all of Ryan, Ober, and Varland as being better which gives the edge to the '24 staff. 

Your points about wanting to improve are valid but many were wanting to compare the teams. If you did a comparison, would you say the team rostered now is better than the version that ended the year? Despite some very specific disappointments regarding potential trades that never could be pulled off, I'm saying this team is better.

[Doctor Gast]

I applaud you, Cody. I think the one when they said they weren't taking any prospects' deals on any of the salary dump players was that the deals needed to directly respond to our needs. I applauded the FO for making the correct stand but whenever they make the correct stand you can count on them to change it, Which they did about a week later. They traded Polanco for 2 unnecessary prospects & 2 older vets, 1- RP & 1- 5th SP, positions we had covered in-house & positions that we could easily add to. We definitely got worse & when the Kool-Aid wears off everybody will regret this trade.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Well, you can and I have. Certainly the Twins have also been looking at where to get better. The problem with looking at the end of '23 and now is that how or what any specific player will do now is speculation. We know what the team did in September and October last year. Nobody knows how anyone will do this year yet.

So, maybe i need to do this more carefully. How would you, the Twins, or anyone choose to see it?

I would take Vazquez/Jeffers now vs end of year (eoy) V/J because Vazquez will be better and Jeffers should hold his own. 1B - i take AK/CS vs. the injured AK/DS eoy duo. 2B is tough. I take '23 Jorge but am a believer in Julien. RL eoy is a wash with RL now, we hope. Carlos is better now without the PF. Tough to know anything about LF, but Wallner has room for improvement and should have worked to address some weaknesses in the offseason. Tough to take Max now over eoy, but possible, so a wash. I'll take Buck now in CF. Bullpen might favor '23 with Varland there, but it is close. The current bullpen has depth. I believe Pablo eoy was peak, so that is a high bar. I still believe he will be good this year. I see all of Ryan, Ober, and Varland as being better which gives the edge to the '24 staff. 

Your points about wanting to improve are valid but many were wanting to compare the teams. If you did a comparison, would you say the team rostered now is better than the version that ended the year? Despite some very specific disappointments regarding potential trades that never could be pulled off, I'm saying this team is better.

I think projecting how they'll do is the FO's job, and what we all try to do here playing armchair GM. No, I'd say the team rostered now is about the same as the team rostered end of year. I think the losses of 2023 Polanco, Gray, Maeda, Solano, MAT, and Pagan are not compensated for by the addition of 2024 DeSclafani, Santana, and a bunch of relievers almost nobody had heard of until they came here. That isn't to say that bringing those guys back would've replaced their 2023 performances, but I don't believe the contributions they made have been replaced. And I don't think every young player will improve so any improvements are simply making up for the loss of those other guys. 

I don't see a ton of improvement opportunities for Julien and Wallner offensively. So, at best, they're a wash for me, with a decent chance of being worse. Improvements from them over a full season would make them both borderline MVP candidates. I don't think that's likely. Same thing with Lewis, but I could see him actually being a borderline MVP candidate in a full year. I do expect Correa to be better than end of year Correa. I expect Martin, Lee, et al to debut this year, but I don't see any 2024 difference makers in there (I know that's not a popular take around here). I don't think the chances our 26/27/28 year old starters take sizeable steps forward is as likely as many others seem to. Could it happen? Of course. But is it likely? No. 

Buxton is the ultimate wildcard. He could make this roster better all on his own simply by playing 130+ games in CF. But I'm not willing to bet on that. I love to hear he's feeling great now, but, other than 2023, he's always "feeling great" at the start of spring. So I'm just not willing to bet on his health anymore. Although I fully acknowledge a healthy Buxton would be an absolute season changer.

I can definitely see why people are excited. There is more talent here than what we're used to for sure. And I'm excited, too. But there's also very real concerns all over the roster. I can see a path to 95 wins and a deep playoff push. But I can just as easily see a path to 75 wins and the Twins basically switching spots with Cleveland from last year when their young core couldn't reproduce their performances. I think the offense has a gaping Polanco sized hole in it. 

I think the likelihood of improvements amongst the "young" players (pitchers or hitters) is pretty equally balanced with regression from others in that same group. So I think they're a wash. I think any Correa improvement is balanced out with the loss of Polanco. And I think the Ober, Ryan, Varland improvements are balanced by the loss of Gray and likely some regression in that same trio as well. I think they moved some pieces around and ended up with basically the same talent level. And that's disappointing coming off an ALDS appearance and being paired with a payroll slashing.

[Major League Ready]

The financial speculation is so often misconstrued that I took a moment to calculate the amount of reduction based on normal business practices.  Here is how the math works.  Some assumptions are necessary.  They are as follows.

Payroll was 50% of revenue in 2023.   Therefore revenue was $310M.  We know this would be quite high without the BAM money but looks about right with it.  The next assumption is that TV revenue only goes down by $15M and the BAM revenue of $30M.   I assumed a 12% profit and backed into operating costs which include every other employee, piece of equipment, travel, offices, etc.   I have only seen a couple of articles every that attempted to define operating cost as a percentage of revenue but those articles pegged the percentage at 30-35%.  I have backed into this calculation based on Forbes and other articles a number of times and the number has always come out close to the same for the Twins.   Of course it would be likely to be less for the highest revenue teams.

The numbers reflect a scenario where the team makes less profit but the same percentage.  The idea is to show what level of payroll would be required to maintain not the same amount of profit but the same net percentage which is generally how profit levels are targeted in any business. These numbers/calculations will illustrate why you can't simply reduce payroll by 50% of the revenue reduction.
 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think I would probably put it more as an epic PR failure on their part than as a “lie” per se.  I’m reasonably sure that they fully believed that the next step in the TV situation was going to allow them to control the blackout situation.  When suddenly Bally was back at the table and no one else seemed to be stepping up with real $$, they pivoted back to the old deal, which meant blackouts.  The situation changed from their expectations, and it turned out they had guessed wrong.  

The Twins payroll cut was also handled poorly.  They were trying to pass the buck (pun intended) to the TV deal as the culprit.  The reality is that they are looking at some real increases next year and adding a multi-year big contract to a free agent would have added to the base of contracts that they would have to deal with in the future.  We are all happy right now that the big talent on this team is young and cheap, but they won’t be young forever, not to mention the fact that we probably want to lock up a couple to an extension, which will further accelerate the payroll. It also seems somewhat likely that they were out over their skis a bit last year in payroll with the addition of the C4 money.   I don’t love it, but they didn’t really level with the fan base on why the payroll cut was coming.  PR failure number two.

The third point I would just say that I don’t agree.  You can try to make a trade all you want, but if you aren’t willing to part with the talent on your side to get the talent that you want, then you can’t make a deal.  I’m guessing that the Polanco trade was like that.  They wanted an upper end starting pitcher, but Polanco wasn’t enough.  However, instead of walking away, the teams pivoted to another type of deal that gained the Twins some value and got the Mariners the player that they wanted.  It seems likely the Twins didn’t want to part with some of the team’s young talent, and that is understandable.  It also won’t get the trade done.  I would also say that the moves that have been made with regard to the bullpen are a smart pivot from trying and failing to get a high end starter.  They just invested less than $10M in their bullpen and may have built an extremely strong weapon.  It may not be sexy, but I would call that trying to make your team better.  

Maybe I’m naive.  Maybe I’m a fool.  Possibly.  But I just think that scenarios sometimes change, even when you are in the middle of them, and that makes you re-think what your position is in response.  We may not like it.  In fact, they may not like it either.  But reality has a way of jumping up and biting us sometimes.  

[miller761]

Payroll had to go down this year because it is going to increase by at least 20-25 million next year. Good business plans always are somewhat proactive when it comes to costs.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, miller761 said:

Payroll had to go down this year because it is going to increase by at least 20-25 million next year. Good business plans always are somewhat proactive when it comes to costs.

How is it increasing by at least 20-25 million next year?

[tony&rodney]

37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think projecting how they'll do is the FO's job, and what we all try to do here playing armchair GM. No, I'd say the team rostered now is about the same as the team rostered end of year. I think the losses of 2023 Polanco, Gray, Maeda, Solano, MAT, and Pagan are not compensated for by the addition of 2024 DeSclafani, Santana, and a bunch of relievers almost nobody had heard of until they came here. That isn't to say that bringing those guys back would've replaced their 2023 performances, but I don't believe the contributions they made have been replaced. And I don't think every young player will improve so any improvements are simply making up for the loss of those other guys. 

I don't see a ton of improvement opportunities for Julien and Wallner offensively. So, at best, they're a wash for me, with a decent chance of being worse. Improvements from them over a full season would make them both borderline MVP candidates. I don't think that's likely. Same thing with Lewis, but I could see him actually being a borderline MVP candidate in a full year. I do expect Correa to be better than end of year Correa. I expect Martin, Lee, et al to debut this year, but I don't see any 2024 difference makers in there (I know that's not a popular take around here). I don't think the chances our 26/27/28 year old starters take sizeable steps forward is as likely as many others seem to. Could it happen? Of course. But is it likely? No. 

Buxton is the ultimate wildcard. He could make this roster better all on his own simply by playing 130+ games in CF. But I'm not willing to bet on that. I love to hear he's feeling great now, but, other than 2023, he's always "feeling great" at the start of spring. So I'm just not willing to bet on his health anymore. Although I fully acknowledge a healthy Buxton would be an absolute season changer.

I can definitely see why people are excited. There is more talent here than what we're used to for sure. And I'm excited, too. But there's also very real concerns all over the roster. I can see a path to 95 wins and a deep playoff push. But I can just as easily see a path to 75 wins and the Twins basically switching spots with Cleveland from last year when their young core couldn't reproduce their performances. I think the offense has a gaping Polanco sized hole in it. 

I think the likelihood of improvements amongst the "young" players (pitchers or hitters) is pretty equally balanced with regression from others in that same group. So I think they're a wash. I think any Correa improvement is balanced out with the loss of Polanco. And I think the Ober, Ryan, Varland improvements are balanced by the loss of Gray and likely some regression in that same trio as well. I think they moved some pieces around and ended up with basically the same talent level. And that's disappointing coming off an ALDS appearance and being paired with a payroll slashing.

I cannot really disagree with any of the thoughts you are putting down above. However, how the team will do, up or down, is pure speculation. This is why I don't like the comparisons. One we know, the other, just guessing. Naturally, every team will look at ways to improve from the end of the year to the beginning of the next, but the team in Ft. Myers is always going to be different from the team on the field when the weather turns cold in September. 

I have not been too charmed with the front office at all this offseason, yet it is a little pessimistic to say that the pitchers and others will regress when they are only entering the years when they should be at their best. Still, like anyone, you could be correct. Basically, the comparison is made, as you said, by the front office yet all of it is a guess until the season plays out. I'm sticking with my model and 85 wins, which is two more than I predicted last year. Variations give the model a plus or minus five. Take the over.

[Craig Arko]

The ‘No blackouts’ thing is a real stinger for so many people. That’s one where it would have been so much better to say nothing until the ink dried.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I cannot really disagree with any of the thoughts you are putting down above. However, how the team will do, up or down, is pure speculation. This is why I don't like the comparisons. One we know, the other, just guessing. Naturally, every team will look at ways to improve from the end of the year to the beginning of the next, but the team in Ft. Myers is always going to be different from the team on the field when the weather turns cold in September. 

I have not been too charmed with the front office at all this offseason, yet it is a little pessimistic to say that the pitchers and others will regress when they are only entering the years when they should be at their best. Still, like anyone, you could be correct. Basically, the comparison is made, as you said, by the front office yet all of it is a guess until the season plays out. I'm sticking with my model and 85 wins, which is two more than I predicted last year. Variations give the model a plus or minus five. Take the over.

It is 100% speculation. But that's all we can do at this point when talking about how good we think the team is, and judging how we feel they did this offseason. It doesn't mean anything, but it's what we all do when building our expectations for the season. We do our best to guess what the likelihood is of each outcome this season.

I put my guess in that 85 win range, too. 84-88 is kind of my thought in general for the most likely outcome this year. I don't think it's pessimistic to suggest some players will regress. I think it's realistic. More young players go backwards than go forwards. Matt Wallner had a 139 OPS+ last year. Julien was 130. Lewis 150. I'd say I'm being a realist to suggest that at least 1 of those guys takes a step backwards from those numbers over the course of a full season when the league will come at them with very specific game plans to exploit their weaknesses. It's time for them to make adjustments to the adjustments. That is not an easy task, and I don't think it's too crazy to suggest that isn't a smooth process. I certainly hope everyone gets better, but that just isn't very likely. No matter what ages they're at.