Do the Twins Have Baseball’s Best Bullpen?

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins turned the page on 2023, they had a handful of areas well situated for 2024. With the offseason coming to a close and the bullpen looking to be sorted out, what was a solid group last year has taken another step forward.

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Since Derek Falvey took over as Minnesota’s president of baseball operations, he has only deviated once when spending money on relief help. Minnesota has stuck to one-year deals with relievers in almost all cases, and some of their greatest success stories have been diamonds in the rough.

Rocco Baldelli was able to use Brock Stewart in high-leverage situations a year ago after he was out of the majors since 2019. The tale could have repeat itself in 2024 with Justin Topa replicating his 2023, and the continued emergence of Kody Funderburk playing out. Also, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar are stories of internal development.

By many metrics, the Twins bullpen was largely average a season ago. They checked in 21st in fWAR and 15th in DRA-. The group did post the 9th-best K/9 in the sport, and their walk rate was the 12th-best. The high-leverage arms used in late innings were the highlight, and while the bottom of the group rotated through, success stories like Emilio Pagán also provided some depth. This season Fangraphs projects the unit for the third-highest reliever output by fWAR.

After dealing Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, arguably the best current player Minnesota got back was reliever Justin Topa. The addition brings another late-blooming rookie, and similar to Thielbar, Topa found success in his early 30s. As a rookie last season, he posted a 2.61 ERA and backed it up with a 3.15 FIP. His 8.0 K/9 was an impressive mark, and considering he’s a ground ball savant, allowing just an 8.0 H/9 worked nicely as well.

Baldelli doesn’t need to cycle Topa in with the late arms like Durán, Jax, Thielbar, or Stewart, but he gets an opportunity to shorten the game when a starting arm goes little more than five. That collection around Topa has also taken a big step forward, assuming a level of health for the season ahead. We haven’t seen Jorge Alcalá put it all together yet, but the makings of a good relief arm have been there for a while. If he can blossom alongside an upside play like Josh Staumont, the bullpen takes another step forward.

Topa and Staumont aren't the only relief additions for Minnesota either. A major league contract for Jay Jackson puts him in the mix, and despite having bounced around since making a debut in 2015, he figured things out to the tune of a 2.12 ERA with the Blue Jays last season. Now 36, Jackson is out of options, and somewhat of an unknown commodity across a larger sample size, but the Twins clearly saw something they liked. If nothing else, he'll provide a level of depth that can stash someone in the minors to start the year.

It may be hard to believe that Durán has another level yet to unlock, but he's only 26 years old and 2024 will be just the second season of him working as an unquestioned closer. After putting up a 1.0 fWAR tally in 2023, ZiPS and Steamer projections both have him surpassing that mark in the year ahead. Roughly 40% of Minnesota's bullpen value is expected to be derived from the arm of Duran (if FanGraphs is to be believed), and there is definitely a path for him to look more like the 2022 version that finished with a 1.86 ERA, near-90% strand rate, and a FIP south of 3.00. Now fully equipped with entrance music and a hype train, the Twins closer may add plenty more steam in the year ahead.

What Minnesota will do with Louie Varland remains to be seen. He looked electric in brief action out of the bullpen last fall, but keeping him stretched out as an option for the rotation makes some sense. Anthony DeSclafani probably took his immediate rotation spot, but he could follow the Bailey Ober path to start the year if he isn’t going to enter from beyond the outfield.

The last unmentioned member of the group could be rookie Kody Funderburk. Working a 12-inning sample last year for the Twins, he allowed a single run on six hits while posting a 19/5 K/BB. His inclusion would give Baldelli a second southpaw to work with, and nothing about the cameo should be hard to believe. He was dominant at Triple-A last season for the St. Paul Saints, and a promotion looked warranted well before when it came. Minnesota could have four arms in the big league bullpen, all at pre-arbitration salaries this year, and another two checking in below $1 million each. It may be among the cheapest groups in the game, but they’ll have an opportunity to challenge for the best unit.

Last season, the rotation often put Baldelli in a situation to piece games together by going deeper into ballgames. If the rotation is going to take a slight step backward in 2024, there is a path for the overall outcome to remain the same. The high-leverage bullpen talent remains intact, and the rest of the group presents few weak spots as a whole. While it’s more than fair to worry about a rotation that is now without Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the guys supporting them look better than we’ve seen at any point in recent memory.

Having less of a top-heavy unit, and one that could now employ a pair of solid lefties, the front office has constructed something that may be among the biggest strengths for the team. Although the Twins don't have a Kenley Jansen, Josh Hader, or Edwin Díaz eating away at payroll in relief, they do have a well-constructed contingent that can compete with anyone regardless of the name or number of zeroes on a paycheck. This is a group to be reckoned with, and just how good they should be an exciting ceiling to push.

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Outside of the obvious answers, who are you most excited about seeing pitch in relief for the Twins this year? Is there an arm you expect to surprise?

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[DJL44]

Anyone know how to reverse jinx on this article?

[Drtwins]

Relivers are incredibly volatile. Several options make me nervous due to age (Jackson, Thielbar), injury history (Straumont,  Stewart), and relatively short periods of success (Funderburk, Stewart, Topa). With that being said I think the Twins have done a great job bringing in depth. The bullpen has significant potential and could be really good if the majority of them can stay healthy and put up similar numbers to last year.

[SaberNerd]

Last year's bullpen team stats were heavily drawn down by Lopez, Alcala, Balazovic, and Headrick throwing 102 IP and combining for -1.8 fWAR. Stewart/Duran are as good as any other teams top 2.

[Ricky Vaughn]

 

relievers can be fickle, but this group certainly appears to have potential.

[Doctor Gast]

Not any better than last year with Varland. It should be good but not the best

[Linus]

Really excited about the potential of having a shut down pen. Rocco will have a half dozen arms he can trust in a close game. I’m curious why the pen seems to be a higher priority this year compared to past years. 

[ashbury]

They've brought in a bunch of new names with possibly interesting stories.  If I had more confidence in the FO's talent assessment, I'd be more excited.  But names like Jorge Lopez, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, and Matt Wisler temper my enthusiasm for new names.  I'm not saying our FO is bad at this.  They're average; they don't have any special sauce compared to other FOs.

[Mike Sixel]

I like the depth more than last year.....but I can't see it being the best pen in the business. I do love the top 2-4 guys though.

[D.C Twins]

No... no they do not.

[TopGunn#22]

I like the depth more than last year too.  I won't say BEST, but I will say I think it can be very good.  Really good, if Varland isn't needed to start and logs some meaningful innings in the pen.  I think he remains a SP, so I'm going to downgrade Varland's impact in the bullpen for now, but one name NOT mentioned at all, if healthy, could also have a huge impact...Matt Canterino.  

The kid has tremendous stuff.  He just needs to be healthy and prove the stuff can dominate at St. Paul.  Either Varland or Canterino remains a SP or move to the pen.  Both are not ending up in the same place.  Since Varland has demonstrated he could reach 150 innings, I'm designating him SP #6 and Canterino, once he's dominated at St. Paul, will be a member of the Twins BP.  

[BsuNemo]

Deepest maybe - good, yes - best? I'm thinking not quite but they'll be solid and will be able to withstand an injury or two to someone that isn't Duran. 

[HerbieFan]

As a 56-year old, lifelong Twins fan....who also has been scarred by bullpen ineptitude for chunks of the past decade, I just assume the answer is no.  But...let's hope yes!!

[Oldgoat_MN]

As one of the cheapest bullpens in MLB they might be the best value.  Not a bad thing.

[Major League Ready]

Depth makes for an overall strength but there will probably be teams with a better top 2 or 3.  However, Varland and Canterino could end up as BP weapons and that would make for one heck of a BP when added to all the others.  

[Woof Bronzer]

Haha no.

[nicksaviking]

I think the best bullpens tend to have a core group of three to four guys who have been there multiple years and operating in a similar way and used in similar spots. Gardado/Hawkins/Romero, Nathan/Crain/Gurrier, Rogers/May/Duffey. Without doing a deep dive into other team's pens, I doubt this one is the BEST, but I think they're in line to be really good, mostly due to some consistency setting in.

I'd hope they don't monkey around with too many of the new recruits with control problems though. I hope the ones who are still around come March are strictly break-glass-in-case-of-emergency arms stashed in St. Paul

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Really excited about the potential of having a shut down pen. Rocco will have a half dozen arms he can trust in a close game. I’m curious why the pen seems to be a higher priority this year compared to past years. 

I don't know that it really is a higher priority. They're not spending any extra money on it. They had Hoffman and Coulombe in camp last year as the random Jackson, Staumont, Duarte, etc. guys. This is pretty much what they do every year. Claim a bunch of guys, sign some minor league deals, or end of the 40-man deals, and see what shakes out in spring, try to get some through waivers at the end, and send whoever they can to St Paul as added depth to start the year. Then they weed through them the first half of the year until they settle on their mix for August/September. I think they just have found a few guys we like more than usual the last couple years and it's slowly built up depth so that we're more confident in it. I mean Stewart was a random guy they picked up last year, but now we're banking on him being the #2 or 3 guy in the pen.

[Kenny Powers]

I see others have already touched on this before me, but you just can't trust most bullpen arms year over year.  Guys like Jorge Lopez and Dylan Floro seemed like good bullpen arms when we got them, but struggled here.  Same with in-house guys like Jovani Moran who went from really solid young arm to off the roster in one season. 

Then on the other end, you pull a 30 year old guy like Brock Stewart out of no where and he becomes Mariano Rivera.  I assume injuries have a lot to do with the volatility as these guys try to pitch through or come back from injuries.

Bottom line, we won't know what we have until they start ramping up in Spring Training.  Then we see who's healthy and throwing strikes.  It seems like every year when pitchers report we learn that someone we are counting on isn't healthy.  It's just part of the game unfortunately. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

They've brought in a bunch of new names with possibly interesting stories.  If I had more confidence in the FO's talent assessment, I'd be more excited.  But names like Jorge Lopez, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, and Matt Wisler temper my enthusiasm for new names.  I'm not saying our FO is bad at this.  They're average; they don't have any special sauce compared to other FOs.

Hey now, why is Matt Wisler catching strays here? He was lights out in his 25 innings in MN!

[h2oface]

Seriously? Baseball’s best?

Counting on one year wonder, at 32, Topa?

And Stewart to not regress?

Counting on Theilbar to be ageless?

Counting on quirky Funderburk to fool MLB hitters all season?

Straumont to be healthy and achieve former potential?

Alcala, Balazovic, and Headrick to contribute value?

Jackson to rise?

I would call it the most hopeful bullpen. Good luck to us!

[IndianaTwin]

To summarize...

• Duran
• Jax
• Stewart
• Thielbar
• Funderburk
• Jackson
• Staumont
• Duarte
• Topa
• Alcala
• Balazovic
• Winder

And a lot of those have options. I get that relievers are volatile, but that's a lot of possibilities that have had some level of MLB success, plus a couple at the end who seem to have potential. 

Beyond that...

1. In looking at this list, I'm not too hung up on exposing Balazovic to waivers if it comes to that.
2. I don't see how you add Varland to that list when doing so currently means SWR as the No. 6 option as a starter.
3. Related, have we had any AAAA starters added on minor league contracts yet?

[ashbury]

45 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Hey now, why is Matt Wisler catching strays here? He was lights out in his 25 innings in MN!

And then they released him.  He met whatever expectations they could possibly have had, and then they said, "um, well, never mind.  That guy we thought we could turn into something?  Smoke and mirrors.  Next?"  I really lost confidence in them as having something special they could bottle and reuse.

[chpettit19]

Just now, ashbury said:

And then they released him.  He met whatever expectations they could possibly have had, and then they said, "um, well, never mind.  Next?"  I really lost confidence in them as having something special they could bottle and reuse.

Ah. so the opposite miss on evaluation as the other guys. I got ya. 

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

1. Related, have we had any AAAA starters added on minor league contracts yet?

I don't think so but there is young talent - Varland, Festa, Woods Richardson and Canterino.

[Beast]

No.

There's a chance we're not even be the best in the division.  Cleveland still has Clase, who had a 154 Stuff+ last year, second in the MLB for relievers (Duran was 11th at 129).  He's one of the few guys on the planet with an argument they're better than Duran.  Stephan and Hentges both have good stuff.  They're always finding solid relievers.

Outside of the division, there's not even a remotely legitimate argument.  Houston had 3 of the top 10 in Stuff+ last year, with the overall leader (Pressly) and 4th overall (Abreu), and all 3 are back. They've now added Josh Hader to that.  Kendall Graveman is very solid, and Rafael Montero was freaking lights out in 2022 (bit of a down year last year - still a 106 Stuff+).  They are absolutely stacked. 

Before even saying this bullpen is one of the best, I need to see Jax be consistently good all year.   I also need to see Brock Stewart pitch more innings than I can count on two hands. The encouraging thing is they both looked good in the playoffs.

Thielbar is an aging junkballer who got absolutely lit up against premier hitters in the playoffs.  Funderkurk doesn't throw hard enough.  He's just a younger version of Thielbar.  They're fine against the guys in the AAAA Central Division, but not the actual big leagues.  Topa strikes out well under a batter an inning and misses almost no bats (9% SwStr rate - good relievers are typically double that).  Expecting Alcala, Jackson, Balazovic, Sands, Henriquez, Staumont, etc. to suddenly be effective has no basis in current reality.

This is assuming Varland is in the rotation.  He makes the bullpen better, but I need to see him pitch some more innings also.

I like the bullpen.  Its a good bullpen.  Its probably the strength of this team right now (which isn't saying much).  But, we are absolutely not the best bullpen in baseball.  Certainly not the type of uber-dominant bullpen that can shorten a game to 4-5 innings and carry you through the playoffs.  But, good enough for a competitive team.

 

 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

This is the by far strongest and deepest pen we’ve had in a long, long time. On top of that, it’s incredibly cheap.

Is it the best in the majors? Probably not per se.  But it certainly has the potential to be a true upper echelon pen. And upper echelon pens win ball games.

Here is idea I don’t see happening, but will throw it out there anyway.  What about combining DeSclafani and Varland as the joint fifth starter seeing if they can pretty much go 8-9 innings as a pair in each start?  This way Varland stays stretched out and we keep one of our best arms contributing meaningful major league innings all season long. That would leave seven members in the bullpen essentially covering the other four starters.  It also puts a bit of a cap on the innings DeSclafani and Varland throw every fifth game, thereby keeping them a bit fresher for the season. If a starter goes down, then they each start their own games and a new reliever is called up.

 

[ashbury]

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Ah. so the opposite miss on evaluation as the other guys. I got ya. 

Evaluation is evaluation.  It's a continual and/or repeated process for each player, and for players collectively.  I'm not even sure I'm willing to specify where the mis-evaluation was on Wisler, merely that in the end it was pretty much wasted effort for the team because they said goodbye when they didn't have to. 

His career ERA matches pretty closely with his FIP, and his times of success with regard to ERA have been in relatively smaller samples than in the other seasons when he was mediocre.  For his career his Wins Above Average closely matches his Win Probability Added, namely a negative number.  His one season with Minnesota ultimately didn't change his career arc.

[IndianaTwin]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think so but there is young talent - Varland, Festa, Woods Richardson and Canterino.

And Randy Dobnak. 😀

I do suspect they'll sign another body or two. Even if they don't pull a Keuchel and earn a callup, they are needed to keep the "real" prospects on schedule in terms of days off, etc. 

[wabene]

45 minutes ago, Beast said:

I also need to see Brock Stewart pitch more innings than I can count on two hands

We're going to need a new assistant bullpen coach