3 Reasons to Believe in Simeon Woods Richardson

[Cody Christie]

Simeon Woods Richardson struggled last season at Triple A, but there is more than one reason to be excited about what he can provide the Twins in 2024. Here are three reasons to believe in the young starting pitcher.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Twins Daily has been counting down the team’s top 20 prospects this week, with multiple players expected to impact the team next season. Simeon Woods Richardson finished just inside the top 20, after pitching most of last season at St. Paul as a 22-year-old. In 113 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 96-to-61 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His overall numbers were disappointing, but there are reasons for optimism. 

On my personal list, I ranked Woods Richardson as the team’s 11th-best prospect, eight spots higher than he finished in the overall rankings. As Seth Stohs wrote on Monday, SWR fared much better in the second half, with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in just under 67 innings. Those improvements are just the start of why fans should be excited about what he can offer the Twins in 2024. 

Reason 1: Stuff+
Tom Froemming recently posted a video (see below) showing that Woods Richardson ranked 10th in Stuff+ among all pitchers at Triple-A, and that included some rehabbing major-league arms. Stuff+ looks at the physical characteristics of a player’s pitches, including release point, velocity, and vertical and horizontal movement. According to FanGraphs, the Stuff+ model attempts to capture the “nastiest” pitches in baseball.

Last season, Woods Richardson sat in the low 90s with his fastball, which he combined with three offspeed offerings. Even with a strong Stuff+, he had a tough time missing bats. For his career, he has averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, but last season, his rate dropped to 7.6 with St. Paul. There is hope for his strikeout rate to increase, especially with the characteristics of his other pitches. 

Reason 2: Age
Woods Richardson has been aggressively pushed up the organizational ladder since he was a 17-year-old in the Mets organization. He has been over three years younger than the average age of the competition at his level throughout his professional career. During the 2024 season, he faced older batters in 91.9 percent of opponent’s plate appearances, yielding an opponents' line of .261/.350/.426 in 418 at-bats. Over the season’s final months, batters posted a .642 OPS against Woods Richardson, so there were signs of improved performance. 

Luck also played a role in his poor performance early in the season. Woods Richardson wasn’t missing enough bats, so more balls were being put in play against him, resulting in higher BABIP totals. From April to June, batters hit .315 against him, with a .369 BABIP. Batters went 49-for-238 (.206 BA) from July to September, with a .240 BABIP. It’s also important to note that CHS Field in St. Paul has favored hitters, which can impact a pitcher’s overall numbers. 

Reason 3: Development
Woods Richardson has previously struggled, especially when being pushed to a higher level for the first time. In 2021, he reached Double A and got his head knocked in, with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 53 1/3 innings. Minnesota had him repeat that level in 2022, and he had one of his best professional seasons, including pitching well for St. Paul. In 107 1/3 innings across two levels, he posted a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP, including 9.6 K/9. It was a tremendous season, putting him back on the map as one of the team’s top pitching prospects. 

Throughout his career, SWR has worked on mechanical adjustments to get the most out of his lanky frame. He’s used recent offseasons to refine his strength and conditioning program to better handle the rigors of starting pitching. One of his most significant alterations is using his delivery to be more efficient in his direction to the plate, which can coax extra velocity.

During his strong second half, there were also changes in his pitch usage. Against left-handed hitters, he used his change-up more regularly, and there were times when that pitch gained some vertical depth. With righties, he used his slider more often and commanded it better. Walks have haunted him in the past, so his ticket to the big leagues is his better command with his fastball, a pitch with some cut, and a higher whiff percentage with his secondary pitches. Pitching development is a non-linear path, and fans should still be hopeful about Woods Richardson. 

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What improvements will Woods Richardson make next season? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

100% count me in his camp. Hard to peg where he falls, but he absolutely has the potential to be a quality major league starter.

[BK432]

I didn't know his Stuff+ was that solid. Also easy to forget he's only 23. I had definitely pushed him to the back of my mind, but he deserves some patience. Will be fun to see how he progresses this season.

[Fatbat]

It would not surprise me to see a few MLB starts from him in ‘24 and be in the talk of a starting gig as #5/6 in ‘25. SWR/Canterino/Raya/Festa & a few more on the way soon.  The pipeline is looking good!! 

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks, Cody, you hit on my sentiments exactly. I felt SWR was ranked much too low, too. I'll echo that SWR has been brought up very quickly at a young age, plus being traded multiple times so there have been a lot of adjustments & with every challenge, there have been reasonable setbacks, But he grits it out, makes the adjustments & comes out of it a better pitcher.

He has turned the corner at AAA, & he'll be an awesome SP for the Saints this season. If taken slowly into the MLB he could also make an impact this season but the rotation & BP are jammed packed which would hinder any promotion. I like SWR makeup & believe he will become an impact SP for the Twins someday.

[Dman]

I am hoping his second half was for real and that he can improve even more.  The Stuff+ is exciting as it means his pitches work well together forcing a batter to guess at what is coming.  It is the lower fastball velocity that makes his whole repertoire vulnerable IMO.  A little more velocity there and he looks like a 5th starter or better.  Hoping SWR, Canterino, and Festa have great AAA seasons and are ready to be promoted to the MLB team.  That would be great depth to have for the 2024 season.

[olerud]

Unless his velo improves he'll hope to be fringe starter at best!

[Nashvilletwin]

17 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

It would not surprise me to see a few MLB starts from him in ‘24 and be in the talk of a starting gig as #5/6 in ‘25. SWR/Canterino/Raya/Festa & a few more on the way soon.  The pipeline is looking good!! 

Agree, with the pipeline.  It is looking deep and solid (not spectacular per se).  I wonder though if there are any true #1s in the system at the moment besides Lopez who might show up by 2026?

At the moment I think Ober (who if he throws 160+ innings this year may well be a really good #2) has the best shot.  Maybe Raya?

Re SWR, if he topped out as a reliable 180 inning 4.25 ERA #4 type from 2025 -2029 we should be ecstatic. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, olerud said:

Unless his velo improves he'll hope to be fringe starter at best!

#1, I know a team that has been very good about helping to add velo.

#2 It will be very interesting to see what he looks like this spring. IF his velo has spiked a little (even to more 93-94 instead of 90-92) then I do think we might have something here.

 

 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, olerud said:

Unless his velo improves he'll hope to be fringe starter at best!

Fringe starters are getting $10-12M as free agents this offseason.

[terrydactyls]

20 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Thanks, Cody, you hit on my sediments exactly. I felt SWR was ranked much too low, too. I'll echo that SWR has been brought up very quickly at a young age, plus being traded multiple times so there have been a lot of adjustments & with every challenge, there have been reasonable setbacks, But he grits it out, makes the adjustments & comes out of it a better pitcher.

He has turned the corner at AAA, & he'll be an awesome SP for the Saints this season. If taken slowly into the MLB he could also make an impact this season but the rotation & BP are jammed packed which would hinder any promotion. I like SWR makeup & believe he will become an impact SP for the Twins someday.

Sediments are remnants, leftovers, bottom of the barrel, dregs.  I don't believe Cody hit on that.  Maybe your sentiments?  In that case, I agree 100%.

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Sediments are remnants, leftovers, bottom of the barrel, dregs.  I don't believe Cody hit on that.  Maybe your sentiments?  In that case, I agree 100%.

My slip "sentiments"

[roger]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree, with the pipeline.  It is looking deep and solid (not spectacular per se).  I wonder though if there are any true #1s in the system at the moment besides Lopez who might show up by 2026?

At the moment I think Ober (who if he throws 160+ innings this year may well be a really good #2) has the best shot.  Maybe Raya?

Re SWR, if he topped out as a reliable 180 inning 4.25 ERA #4 type from 2025 -2029 we should be ecstatic. 

I have thought for awhile that the organization had two potential ACES, Canterino and Prielipp.  The big question is whether or not they still can be following long layoffs from serious injury?  We may learn a lot about Canterino over the next few months.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

49 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Sediments are remnants, leftovers, bottom of the barrel, dregs.  I don't believe Cody hit on that.  Maybe your sentiments?  In that case, I agree 100%.

Sedimentary, my dear Watson (2nd)

 

Meh. I knew what was meant...

 

And also looking forward to what all he does when he gets called up.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Agree, with the pipeline.  It is looking deep and solid (not spectacular per se).  I wonder though if there are any true #1s in the system at the moment besides Lopez who might show up by 2026?

At the moment I think Ober (who if he throws 160+ innings this year may well be a really good #2) has the best shot.  Maybe Raya?

Re SWR, if he topped out as a reliable 180 inning 4.25 ERA #4 type from 2025 -2029 we should be ecstatic. 

I still think Preillip has a shot at being elite., CSoto right with him.  Raya might have a shot at being a #1 very soon.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

42 minutes ago, roger said:

I have thought for awhile that the organization had two potential ACES, Canterino and Prielipp.  The big question is whether or not they still can be following long layoffs from serious injury?  We may learn a lot about Canterino over the next few months.

Here's to hoping on Canterino. Both 21/22 IL stints were due to elbow issues so I'd hazard a guess the UCL was a problem in both years. Maybe Tommy John will fix him up and he'll get back on track this year. 

[wabene]

One thing that doesn't get touched on is his over the top delivery, which makes him unique in today's game. Does that delivery impact his velocity ceiling?

[jorgenswest]

The run scoring context of AAA was extreme last year. His ERA was better than the league by about the same rate as his trade teammate Austin Martin’s wRC+. TD has Martin ranked 6th though relative to league they were essentially the same.

I do wonder if the ABS automated strike zone impacted pitchers with movement more than other pitchers. According to the Athletic the zone was small and inconsistent between parks. Last year, the ABS calls strikes solely based on where the ball crosses the midpoint of the plate, 8.5 inches from the front and the back. It was a two dimensional zone. Wouldn’t pitches with more movement be more likely to drop out of the zone before the midpoint or drop into the zone after the midpoint? The AAA ABS isn’t going to find those strikes. The rationalization, according to MLB executive VP Morgan Sword, is a 2D zone allowed the robocalls to better match the representations of what was presented to fans.

I could go on more on my thought about the automated strike zone but it is crazy that you would change the strike zone to match what people are seeing on the screen. Does everyone believe the zone they see on TV we believe is accurate? Do they assume if an umpire’s call is different it must be the umpire’s failure? The reports that came out last year had me do a 180 on my hopes for an automated zone. 

Back to SWR I do have hope in his stuff+ and the quality of movement on his pitches. His velocity needs to be better. He is about the same age as many of the pitchers drafted in the last two years with much more experience at the upper level of the minors. I think that makes him a better bet to be successful than Lewis or Culpepper at this point and more ready to help the Twins in 2024 than Festa.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Not to be a debby-downer, but the reason why SWR's stuff+ is so high is his elite extension (~7'). His secondary stuff is pretty mediocre, and his fastball is pretty flat for being such a slow pitch. To me, SWR having such a high stuff+ has more to do with the flaws in stuff+ rather than him having good stuff.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I would add to your reasons,1. injuries happen every year and 2. He is at the top of the list of subs.

He will get his chance this season.

[HerbieFan]

For me, could've stopped after the first two.  Stuff+ and Age.  Enough said.  As he better learns all of the other aspects of pitching, I believe he'll be just fine.

[gman]

Looking at stuff plus all pitchers at 3A are rated then SWR looks very good compare to them. For me its looking at his second half numbers and watching him pitch last year made me think he belongs in that top 8 starting pitchers for the big club, maybe top 7. I expect him to start the year at St Paul, but agree that he gets starts with the Twins. I think Varland comes first, but think he is second.

[nicksaviking]

I just don't want them to miss their window if he needs to go to the pen. If that's his eventual destination, he should have a full year between spring training, AAA and the majors doing only that job before he runs out of options and the Twins lose him for good.

[jorgenswest]

44 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I just don't want them to miss their window if he needs to go to the pen. If that's his eventual destination, he should have a full year between spring training, AAA and the majors doing only that job before he runs out of options and the Twins lose him for good.

I would keep him as a starter as long as possible. Varland had one relief appearance in AAA. Jax had one AAA relief appearance before he was needed in 2022.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would keep him as a starter as long as possible. Varland had one relief appearance in AAA. Jax had one AAA relief appearance before he was needed in 2022.

Jax did well, and Duran and Rogers went straight to relieving too.

But tons of guys need a year. Duffey, May and Perkins. Too many top end relievers who were converted starters, like Liam Hendricks, Brad Hand and Andrew Miller were all lost because their first team didn't give them the requisite time in the pen to figure things out.

I mean it wouldn't be the end of the world, but how many pitchers fall off the top prospect lists and then three years later actually turn into a good starter? I think the chances that he could become a really good reliever are significantly higher than the odds that he'll ever be a good starter, so I'd rather play with that path because with his dwindling options, the Twins may only get to give a reasonable try one of those routes now, not both.

[Boswell]

Does SWR hold the record for longest name on a Twins jersey?

I count Mientkiewicz at 12 and Woods-Richardson at 16 (or 15 letters).  

Any others in the ballpark?  :)

”The Minnesota Twins - Get to Know ‘Em”

[Althebum82]

"During the 2024 season, he faced older batters in 91.9 percent of opponent’s plate appearances, yielding an opponents' line of .261/.350/.426 in 418 at-bats."

Without actually checking the stats, I assume you were quoting 2023 numbers here rather than 2024 under "Reason 2:  Age?

[jkcarew]

As mentioned…needs to improve BOTH command and velocity. Can definitely happen still, but usually doesn’t happen ‘all-of-a-sudden’. Even a move to the bullpen, by itself, doesn’t solve the command challenge. In small sample AAA relief outings, the K/BB  ratio popped, but HR% and SLG were actually worse than his starter outings.

Agree, he still looks the part of a legit prospect. But…at least for the Twins…the expiration date on that status could expire quicker than we might think if he can’t add value in Minneapolis.

[nclahammer]

I saw SWR pitch in Wichita and the kid has some good stuff.  I look for him to begin the year in AAA with the adjustments he made at the end of last season and have a good season.   Then he's just a step away.

[MinnInPa]

22 hours ago, olerud said:

Unless his velo improves he'll hope to be fringe starter at best!

agreed ...ceiling is # 5 starter at best.... maybe long relief....not someone to bring in in high leverage relief..just didnt see much at all last year