3 Reasons Matt Wallner Is Not the Next Joey Gallo or Miguel Sano

[Cody Christie]

Twins fans have seen this story play out before with low-contact sluggers. Just mentioning Miguel Sano or Joey Gallo conjures up images of high strikeout totals and low batting averages. Here are three reasons Matt Wallner won’t join this duo.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Twins attempted to turn Joey Gallo into a reclamation project after a disastrous 2022 season. Gallo came out of the gate strongly with a 1.063 OPS in the season’s first month, including 11 extra-base hits (seven home runs) in 55 at-bats. Things took a turn for the worst from there as he hit .177/.301/.440 (.741) with a 142-to-48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 111 games. Gallo’s big-league career will likely end unless he is willing to sign a minor-league deal and prove he can continue to provide value. 

Some fans were a little trepidatious about the team investing $11 million in Gallo after just parting ways with Miguel Sano. Gallo and Sano are similar player types who are low-contact sluggers who strike out at a high rate. In the StatCast era, they have the two highest strikeout rates, but they can both destroy a baseball when squaring up a home run. Strikeouts and low contact are never aesthetically pleasing to fans, but teams can value these traits if they are found in the right player.  

Earlier this week, Pitcher List’s John Foley wrote an article called “Applying the Lessons of Joey Gallo as 2024 Risk Indicators.” He wrote about Gallo’s in-zone contract rate being the lowest in the majors by 1.3 points while still posting above-average offensive totals (104 wRC+) with a solid slugging percentage and decent walk rate. Foley goes on to talk about multiple players who fit the same mold as Gallo, including Matt Wallner. There are reasons to be concerned about Wallner’s long-term player profile, but here are three reasons he won’t turn into the next Gallo or Sano. 

1. Wallner Can Continue Unlocking More Power
Wallner finished his rookie season hitting .249/.370/.507 (.877) with 11 doubles, one triple, and 14 home runs. While those numbers are reasonable, there might be signs that he can unlock more power. Wallner posted a .517 xSLG, higher than Gallo has posted in any season since 2019. Sano had two seasons with an xSLG above .500, his rookie season (2015) and the team's record-breaking home run season (2019). Wallner also showed power to all fields during his rookie campaign, while Gallo and Sano have been known as pull hitters. There are other adjustments Wallner needs to make, but he has the potential to showcase more power over the course of an entire season. 

2. Wallner Had a Higher Walk Rate in the Minors
Gallo and Sano were known as patient hitters, even if they did strike out at the highest rates in the Statcast Era. Both batters knew how to work a count and take a walk when necessary. Wallner has shown some of the same ability, especially during his time in the minors. In 2022, he posted an 18.1 BB% at Double-A and a 15.3 BB% after being promoted to Triple-A. Last season in St. Paul, his walk rate was nearly 13%, but that dipped a couple of points at the big-league level. Sano had an 11.6 BB% for his career, while Gallo has walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances. With more MLB experience, Wallner’s walk rate should continue to improve and be closer to the totals he showcased in the minors. 

3. Wallner Can Avoiding Pitches Higher in the Zone
Wallner whiffed on pitches up in the zone regularly last season. However, he has a good eye for those pitches, so he has shown the ability to lay off those pitches. Wallner is a taller player, and pitching up in the zone can be enticing for a player with his skillset because they are balls he could hit out of the park in the minors. There is room for him to continue avoiding pitches higher in the zone to make pitchers throw him better balls to hit. By doing this, he will help his walk rate and his power numbers. 

Can Wallner continue to improve and avoid comparisons to Gallo and Sano? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[DJL44]

I'd actually be thrilled if Wallner matched Gallo's performance from ages 25-28 when he was a two time All-Star. We'll have to wait 5 years to compare him to current-day Sano or Gallo.

[tony&rodney]

Wallner improved to varying extents in each year since becoming a professional player. Perhaps his ability to adapt this season will be tested as never before but the Twins have quite a bit of hope riding on big Matt adjusting in positive ways. 

[Brandon]

So by bringing his walk rate closer to Gallo and Sano levels makes it sounds like he is becoming more like them.

Wallner.can also take a beating as by his 10 HBP will attest.

[Karbo]

I hope he can make the adjustments as pitchers adjust to him. I remember well how Sano was really good in the minors, had a decent avg. and OBA. His 1st year up he looked so promising. Then he got the homer fever and swung as hard as he could and hoped he hit it. He could have hit it out of any field in any park he had so much power. Sad to see so much potential go bad!

[Old Twins Cap]

Michael Wacha was pretty adamant from his commentary chair during the playoffs that Wallner had large holes in his swing on up-and-in fastballs, followed by low and away breaking stuff.

Kind of common for power hitters, but adjustments will need to be made.

That said, the games I was at, Wallner squares a ball and it stays hit a long, long time.

[Rosterman]

I'm not sure what contributed to Gallo's success in earlier years, as he seemed to just swing in one place while he was a Twin...succeeding if he guessed at the right pitch. The free swinging also means more strikeouts.

Sano could never stay away from those low and away pitches. Seems like someone would talk to him and he would layoff those pitches for a game or two, but then...just can't hold back. Either he needed a longer bat, or just stop swinging.

Wallner, like Kepler forawhile, seems like he will be a hard worker, as that will guarantee his success at staying in the majors for awhile. Natural ability only carries so far. You will quickly learn that pitchers will throw to this guy high, because of his size he actually expands the strikezones in many ways. Patience will be the key to Wallner, as well as doing homework on opposing pitchers. Im not sure how long he will play (shades of Mike Restovich or David McCarty, but the Twins will have adequate replacements in the next few years and the best the Twins can hope for is that he shines enough to be a trade token for other needs.

Or maybe he does become Minnesota's David Ortiz. One year at a time. Anyways, he doesn't need more time in the minors.

 

 

[Rosterman]

I never really heard an answer about why the Twins gambled $11m on Gallo. Sano would serve the same bat purposes. Except that Gallo was also centerfield insurance.

On Sano watch for 2024.

[specialiststeve]

Pray that the hitting coaches don't try to make him a dead pull hitter. They have had issues with trying to "unlock" power by giving up overall hitting skills i.e. going the other way. 

Is a MAJOR flaw of this coaching staff. They have players that have had a quality of hitting to all fields and coached it out of them... argh. 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, Old Twins Cap said:

Michael Wacha was pretty adamant from his commentary chair during the playoffs that Wallner had large holes in his swing on up-and-in fastballs, followed by low and away breaking stuff.

Kind of common for power hitters, but adjustments will need to be made.

That said, the games I was at, Wallner squares a ball and it stays hit a long, long time.

And it ties in nicely with the high HBP rate.  His stance feels like it would lend to that hole.  Seems like it would be very hard to get the bat on the ball that almost hits you.  It feels like he is cheating out over the plate and killing mistakes.  More overall comfort should help that which would help up and in. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I never really heard an answer about why the Twins gambled $11m on Gallo. Sano would serve the same bat purposes. Except that Gallo was also centerfield insurance.

On Sano watch for 2024.

Gallo played left field 50 plus games and played 1B a similar amount as a LH bat to replace Kirilloff when hurt. Also, had potential to DH as LH bat……..75% of starters are right handed so Gallo was a better defensive flexibility choice than Sano and he was LH at the plate.

[JD-TWINS]

Wallner should have the opportunity to play a bunch more in ‘24………maybe 225% (near 600 PA’s) more plate appearances. Assuming he is able to hit .240 plus again, he could have 32 dingers and 25 doubles without improving at all. That would be a fantastic Sophomore season!

[EGFTShaw]

Let’s trust the coaching and veteran leadership when it comes to our Young Guns.

i think we have good people in place on both those points. 

Remember Wallner is a MN kid and you don’t grow up in MN without a work ethic. It’s not limited to MN of course, but 9/10 times the MN raised person had it. 

if pitchers adjust, hitters adjust.  It’s a game of cat and mouse for the life of your MLB career. 

Even though I should be 100% pessimistic after being a Vikings fan since the PPEaters, 0-4 in Super Bowls, a kicker who was 100% up until a key FG in the playoffs, I am still optimistic when it comes to our Twins next year.

ill go on record now, they win the Division by 10 games. 

MN Mic 🎙️ Drop

[Doc Munson]

Am I the only one confused? the title of the article is 3 reasons why Wallner will NOT be Sano or Gallo ye tthe first 2 points compares him EXACTLY to both of them.

 

[High heat]

Wallner had a different 2 strike approach.  And can’t fall into the keep swinging for it all.
 

Try and mash the first two strikes and slight shorten up when down in the count.  That aspect has to improve.  If he hits .240 .250 again next year he will be a fringe all star with his power and walks

[DocBauer]

We have, and will continue to compare ballplayers. It's just natural, if unfair. Each player is their own unique self at some point. And it's up to them and their ability, work ethic, and even intelligence as to their future.

I will always expect Wallner to K a lot. But is he a K machine like Gallo and Sano? Or does he K quite a bit like Julien, who still gets hits and BB by usually working the count to his favor?

I saw several games of Wallner last year where he worked the count, and had the ability to hold up, or adjust his swing, to get a hit. It was an ability I didn't see from Gallo last year, or Sano's last few seasons. And I can't recall who the opponent was, but I recall one incredible AB in August where he had 2 strikes and almost seemed to pause his swing for an instant before letting his natural power take over and launch a HR. 

Even in a somewhat SSS, I've seen Wallner adjust his swing. And he's done the same thing at every level so far. If he can just lay off some of the high stuff, he can be lethal. But Sano and later career Gallo couldn't. They RIPPED for all they could. 

Interesting aside, when Kepler FINALLY realized he didn't have to be perfect all the time and actually raised his K % in 2023, and just let his natural power play, he started hitting the ball all over the place and maybe had the best half plus of a season he's ever had.

I think Wallner might be closer to Kepler as a comp than Gallo or Sano. Reign it in just a bit, make decent contact, and just hit the ball hard without trying for HR. Let it happen.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doc Munson said:

Am I the only one confused? the title of the article is 3 reasons why Wallner will NOT be Sano or Gallo ye tthe first 2 points compares him EXACTLY to both of them.

 

In 2019 Sano had his best year hitting .246 with 34 HRS and an OPS+ of 139……,K rate of 41.8%. His OBP was 346.

Walner’s first year in ‘23 had him hitting .249 with 14 HRS and an OPS + of 139……….K rate of 37.5%. His OBP was .370.

Now Sano has a number of seasons that don’t reach these levels! …………the K rate % I used was K’s divided by AB’s.

Walner has holes in his approach and he strikes out too much………..I just think with his youth - his advantage being a LH hitter, he has a shot at getting his K% down to around 30-32% and keep his OBP over .350……with his defense/arm and his power he’ll be a good player.

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I never really heard an answer about why the Twins gambled $11m on Gallo. Sano would serve the same bat purposes. Except that Gallo was also centerfield insurance.

On Sano watch for 2024.

Gallo hit well before going to the Ya knees. He did not do that with the Yankees he is not the first player nor the last player to stink for the Yankees after playing well elsewhere.  Sony Gray, Carl Pavano recovered to some success. Given Gallo isn’t old, if he returned to the .800-.850 range with his OPS he woul have been a steal. Risk/reward

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Im not sure how long he will play (shades of Mike Restovich or David McCarty,

Ouch! Those comparisons made me cringe! But both of those guys were indeed highly touted prospects who just never adjusted to MLB.

[Doctor Wu]

7 hours ago, old nurse said:

Gallo hit well before going to the Ya knees. He did not do that with the Yankees he is not the first player nor the last player to stink for the Yankees after playing well elsewhere.  Sony Gray, Carl Pavano recovered to some success. Given Gallo isn’t old, if he returned to the .800-.850 range with his OPS he woul have been a steal. Risk/reward

Playing for the Yankees sure didn't help Gallo, Gray, or Pavano. And our old buddy Josh Donaldson didn't exactly thrive there either. Aaron Hicks did okay for a few years there, but he seemed to regain his mojo again last year after he LEFT NYC. Must be something in the air ... or just playing in Yankee Stadium in front of big rowdy crowds? Maybe a dream for some players and a difficult adjustment for others. 

[jmlease1]

20 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Im not sure how long he will play (shades of Mike Restovich or David McCarty, but the Twins will have adequate replacements in the next few years and the best the Twins can hope for is that he shines enough to be a trade token for other needs.

Comparing Wallner to Restovich is pretty unfair to Wallner, who already has more ABs in MLB in a half-season this year with the Twins plus a very short stint (barely over a cup of coffee) last year than Restovich had in his entire professional career. And Restovich never showed Wallner's kind of power, unless you really hang your hat on 8 games in his late-season cup of coffee, back when teams loaded up their rosters in Sept and you had a lot of MLB games that were closer to AAA.

Same with any comp to McCarty, who hung around in MLB for a pretty long time but never had a season as good as Wallner's was in 2023. He also never showed anywhere near Wallner's power at the plate, except in very limited stints. McCarty was pretty much a bust for the Twins, and Wallner has already been a successful draft pick.

The best argument for Wallner not being the bad version of Gallo/Sano (which is really what we're talking about here; when both were going well they were good players) is that he's been healthy, which was the real downfall of Sano, and showed an ability to adjust to what pitchers were doing to him to a) never completely fall off the cliff by missing everything, and b) finish strong, and make enough contact which Gallo seemingly couldn't do any longer. Sano had 3 good seasons for the Twins and would have ended up with a better reputation if he'd strung them all in a row, instead of going every other, and Gallo had a 5-season run where he was a quality player before it all went to crap because he simply couldn't make enough contact. Wallner has shown that he won't get bullied by opposing pitchers already, and if he can keep that up he should get enough pitches that he can punish and get on base enough to to continue to be a quality player.

If that's the kind of career Wallner has (3-5 seasons where he's an above-average starter and borderline all-star) he'll add a lot for the Twins. Certainly far more than guys like Restovich and McCarty did, who may have had high expectations but never performed like Wallner. It may not always be pretty, and there will be stretches where he puts up a lot of Ks without the hits, but Wallner played less than half a season in 2023 and was pretty dang great. He's got room to regress a little without being anywhere near the Bad Version Sano/Gallo.

 

[saviking]

I think you nailed it when you pointed out Wallner hits the ball to all fields with power, and the other two were dead pull hitters. As I think about it, I can see both Gallo and Sano putting the same swing on every pitch regardless of where it's thrown. All pitcher had to do is throw outside those swing paths ..

[Lee Rettig]

This conversation/comparison has been running through many Twins fan's minds for a while, now, and it was necessary to finally address the thought out in the open.

I see Wallner as more of a Kepler-at-his-best (2019) kind of player than a recent Gallo or, sadly, Sano type player.

Wallner has displayed great talent and a high upside at every level, but its going to be more of a mental battle than anything for him, base on his history.  When he has stayed focused and worked hard through tough patches, he comes out explosively, like a rubber band releasing.

I think the key to him becoming a very good to great major leaguer is tenacity and Minnesota stick-to-it-tivness.  And he is a Minnesotan.

Wallner has started each season slow, worked hard to figure out the fixes and then mashed.  If his management, teammates, and fan base can have patience and keep faithful, history says he will come around and produce at a very high/successful/exciting level.

Gallo (often) and Sano (mostly) were strong starters who typically slowed down or were worn down by long seasons and/or injury and were not as mentally tenacious as Wallner has displayed.

My two cents.

Unfortunately, slow starters don't make all star teams, so I think he will be largely missed by the rest of the country's baseball fans, like so many other solid Twins players in the past, but will serve our team well.

A second season of great success due to the Twins youth movement (Julien, Lewis, Ryan, et al) may help garner some attention, but it will take post season heroics to make Wallner a household name.

 

[Jeff K]

23 hours ago, Karbo said:

I hope he can make the adjustments as pitchers adjust to him. I remember well how Sano was really good in the minors, had a decent avg. and OBA. His 1st year up he looked so promising. Then he got the homer fever and swung as hard as he could and hoped he hit it. He could have hit it out of any field in any park he had so much power. Sad to see so much potential go bad!

I admit, I became a Sano "disliker" (I try not to hate...).  He seemed to waste his seemingly great talent.  Not many have the opportunity to be major league ballplayers and Sano seemingly took it for granted.  I think comparing ballplayers is a fools errand.  They are all different and hopefully Wallner continues to improve and produce for the Twins.  He is fun to watch.  And he plays a nice outfield.

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Playing for the Yankees sure didn't help Gallo, Gray, or Pavano. And our old buddy Josh Donaldson didn't exactly thrive there either. Aaron Hicks did okay for a few years there, but he seemed to regain his mojo again last year after he LEFT NYC. Must be something in the air ... or just playing in Yankee Stadium in front of big rowdy crowds? Maybe a dream for some players and a difficult adjustment for others. 

There was a player years ago from rural Minnesota who played in New York briefly  I can’t remember his name but he said something about it being a different world.  Living in a large city versus living in a city where you can easily escape the city can mean a lot to some. The culture in New York wasn’t to the liking of some people I knew who had to travel to the city 

[PDX Twin]

I agree with a lot of what's been written in the comments here. Ultimately, it may boil down to what's in his brain. Can he learn? Can he adapt? Can he take what the pitcher is giving him?

It didn't seem like Sano, in particular, could do any of those things. I remember Rod Carew's comments on a broadcast after 2022 Spring Training. He lauded Arraez for listening carefully to his (Rod's) advice and actually following it on the field. When the announcer asked about Sano, he shook his head and said something to the effect of "he just goes up and swings as hard as he can at every pitch."

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

I agree with a lot of what's been written in the comments here. Ultimately, it may boil down to what's in his brain. Can he learn? Can he adapt? Can he take what the pitcher is giving him?

It didn't seem like Sano, in particular, could do any of those things. I remember Rod Carew's comments on a broadcast after 2022 Spring Training. He lauded Arraez for listening carefully to his (Rod's) advice and actually following it on the field. When the announcer asked about Sano, he shook his head and said something to the effect of "he just goes up and swings as hard as he can at every pitch."

Well, I'd say it's a lot easier for Arraez to take Carew's advice because there's a lot more similarity in how they approached hitting from the jump. Sano was a power hitter, Carew never was. (even if you throw in Sano's disastrous final season, he still averaged 20 HRs a season; Carew never HIT 20 HRs in a season. Carew was a far better player, and did it for much much longer, but Sano still out homered him 162-92 in 11 fewer seasons) Sano's decline had more to do with injuries than anything else; we did see Sano make adjustments in his career (for example attacking pitches earlier in the count rather than trying to work pitchers deeper and getting too many 2-strike counts), but it didn't matter as much once he couldn't stay on the field and couldn't catch up to fastballs like he used to. I'd say that had a lot more to do with "bad knee" than "didn't listen".

[Beast]

He’ll never be as good as either at their peak.  Hopefully he doesn’t hit their lows.

It’s entertaining to see the comments on disliking Sano because he wasted his career by being lazy.  What a thing to say about somebody without knowing them.  All the talk about not being able to control weight from people who likely understand that issue all too well.  Never seen such vitriol directed at somebody like him, it’s strange.  You never hear anyone talking that way about Marty Cordova, Jason Kubel, Oswaldo Arcia, or any other number of highly touted prospects that didn’t live up to the hype.

The guy had a career OPS over .800 and OPS+ of .116.  Hit 162 HRs in 2502 ABs.  Multiple 30 HR seasons.  He wasn’t that bad.  He got jerked around and idiotically asked to play the outfield.  He sustained a serious stress fracture that requires a rod in his leg.  Can we just move on from these ridiculous talking points about laziness and weight every time he comes up?  It’s just gross.

[2wins87]

On 1/6/2024 at 8:54 PM, Doc Munson said:

Am I the only one confused? the title of the article is 3 reasons why Wallner will NOT be Sano or Gallo ye tthe first 2 points compares him EXACTLY to both of them.

 

I don't want to rag on it too much, but kind of confused by a lot of statements in the article that aren't backed up in fact.

Wallner hits to all fields better?  That's not really how I remember Sano (yes he pulled a lot but also crushed to straightaway center a lot), and for his career Sano's pull rate was 45.6%, while Wallner is at 48.5% so far.

Wallner is more patient?  Umm, the comps are two of the more patient/passive hitters of the last 5 or so years.  Comparing Wallner's walk rate over one season to Sano's entire minor league track record is disingenuous.  Wallner made some big improvements to get his walk rate there from what was a weakness early in his professional career.  I'm not sure he even makes it to the majors without those massive improvements, so I think it could be point toward his coach-ability and capacity for improvement, but I don't get this argument at all.

Wallner is better at laying off the high fastball?  I really don't know so it would be nice if there was some evidence presented.  I looked at a few heatmaps, and Wallner may very well be better than Gallo there, but I looked over several year's of Sano's career and I'd say Wallner's swing/chase rate against high pitches is very similar.

As others have said, it's not a put down of Wallner to say that he is the same kind of hitter as Gallo and Sano either.  Both had success in the majors before their declines.  Sano's was a little more short lived and there are some confounding factors that Wallner can hopefully avoid.  But Wallner seems especially comparable to Gallo, and if he can continue his production for 4 more years to have a stretch similar to what Gallo did from 2017-2021 that would be a great outcome.

Hopefully Wallner can continue making adjustments and age gracefully, but he's absolutely got a similar profile to Gallo, and that could be a good thing.

 

[wabene]

Last year in 332 plate appearances Gallo had 50 hits with 19 singles.

In 254 plate appearances Wallner had 53 hits with 27 singles.

What I remember from watching is Wallner was much better at adjusting and taking different approaches. When he had his bad slump he seemed to have the tools to work his way out of it. An .877 OPS vs .741, can Wallner come close to that again? He looked to me like he was more than a one trick pony, capable of adjustments.