5 Positive Signs from Byron Buxton's 2023 Season

[Nick Nelson]

We've talked enough about the negatives in a bleak, discouraging season that was full of them for the embattled Twins star. If you take a closer look, you can find some signs that showcase Byron Buxton's ability to be a difference-maker in 2024 and beyond.

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Like it or not, Byron Buxton is going to be part of the Twins' plans going forward. He's under contract for another five years, at a total cost of $75 million. Especially given their financial constraints, the front office would likely feel compelled to try and keep building around him, even if they didn't entirely believe in his ability to bounce back.

Luckily, there are tangible reasons to believe he can do so. The Twins say they're feeling good about Buxton's health at this stage of the offseason, expressing their intention to plan around him as at least a part-time center fielder in 2024. He's a full year removed from his original knee surgery, and a follow-up procedure in October was intended to alleviate the lingering issues. It would hardly be strange for Buxton to return in a much better place physically when he arrives in spring training; we've seen it happen before.

However, that leads us to another question: Even if relatively healthy ... is Buxton even that good anymore? What we saw in the past season casts some doubt, as he seemingly transformed into an all-or-nothing power hitter prone to massive slumps. 

Despite launching some majestic blasts, his overall production was below-average in 2023, as reflected by a 98 OPS+ in the 85 games he was able to play. He appeared exclusively as a designated hitter, delivering zero defensive value. There's no two ways about it: Buxton had a rough season and was more of a detriment than an asset to the Twins' division-winning efforts.

Is the 30-year-old cooked? I think it's far too early to say that. Let's take a closer look at some of Buck's metrics from 2023, in search of silver linings to take forward.

He was still hitting the ball as hard as ever.
It was plain to see, last year, that Buxton's issues with his right leg--the backside engine of his powerful swing--were inhibiting him at the plate. Despite this, he managed to produce a lot of power, both in terms of production (17 HR and .203 ISO in 347 PA) and underlying measurements.

Buxton's average exit velocity (91.5 MPH) was in the 84th percentile among MLB hitters. His Barrel rate was 90th-percentile, and his hard-hit rate in the 74th. Buxton actually produced the single hardest-hit ball of his entire career in 2023--a 116.9-MPH smash off Cardinals reliever John King on Aug. 1 that teleported to the warning track for a double. He also hit three home runs farther than 450 feet. Buxton's power has not really subsided due to injury, even as other elements of his game have deteriorated.

He was also still really fast.
Surprisingly, the speed also has not declined that much. It's fairly incredible, given how hobbled he was last year, but Buxton's sprint speed remained firmly in the elite tier at 29.5 feet per second, faster than 94 percent of all other major leaguers. This offers some reason for faith that (if he is able to get back out into center field) he can still track down just about anything out there. 

Not only that, but he was as good as ever on the bases.
Buxton's enduring speed, combined with his underrated instincts and technique on the basepaths, helped him maintain this core aspect of his value: when he gets on base, he makes things happen.

In addition to tracking sprint speed, Statcast also has a metric to measure baserunning value, derived mainly from the ability to take extra bases on batted balls. Running fast doesn't necessarily equate to effective baserunning; Amed Rosario, for example, was in the 34th percentile with negative baserunning value last year, despite his 95th-percentile sprint speed.

Buxton has always rated as a good baserunner, but his 91st-percentile baserunning value in 2023 represented his highest ranking since 2017. Even with a bad knee, Buxton was still smart, aggressive, and fundamentally sound on the basepaths, inspiring hope that (with better health) he can keep offering an edge in this facet of the game.

He developed some patience.
This has been quite an interesting development, for a hitter who was once the league's least patient hitter. Buxton was always a pretty free swinger, reaching a new extreme in the pandemic season, when he drew two walks in 135 plate appearances. His 1.5% walk rate was the lowest in baseball.

Since then, he has gradually increased his willingness to take a free pass, to the point where last year's career-high 10.1% rate was downright solid, ranking in the 71st percentile. I think it's safe to say that even in his healthier form, Buxton is likely to be a low-average power hitter, but he can provide much more balanced offensive value by drawing the occasional base on balls, to keep pitchers honest and put his aforementioned baserunning skills to greater use.

Even in such a rough season, Buxton was not THAT bad.
I'm not gonna hoist a 0.7 fWAR and .311 wOBA as numbers to be celebrated. They could aptly be described as mediocre. But for a guy who was playing in the worst physical state in which we will see him (hopefully), constantly bothered by knee pain to the point that he couldn't even take the field once defensively all year, mediocre offense is kind of... impressive? He was still better than replacement-level, and his final wOBA was only a few ticks below the .318 league average. 

Buxton's strengths remained strong enough last year that he was able to perform competently despite his severe impediments, because the core components of his game–the power, the speed, the sheer talent–remain intact. 

In a very bad year that we'd all like to forget, Buxton still showed what he's capable of. Now he needs to make sure everyone remembers who he really is.

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[Karbo]

I would love to see a big bounce back in CF, but all those K's!

[rv78]

Here we go again. I will forever remember who Buxton is long after his career ends. A broken over-hyped player that did little to nothing to help the Twins win any meaningful games. I wonder how wrong you are about him being in so much pain he couldn't take the field defensively even once all season. I'd be willing to bet it was more of a managierial and FO decision not to play him there than it was his pain as the deciding factor. You can't tell me that runnning the bases was less painful than running in the outfield. If the FO had any smarts at all they would have shut him down completely by the All-Star break and had him undergo his follow up procedure then, making him even more ready for 2024. Not that that will probably make any difference..... Any betting man would figure he's going to get injured again anyway.

[Cory Engelhardt]

All of these are actual positives. It does lend credence to the idea that if his knees feel ok, he isn’t cooked.

Just remember though; if this gets shared anywhere on social media, don’t read the comments. :)

Happy New Year!

[Heiny]

I am optimistic, but cautious, very very cautious.  Would love to see Buck have an MVP season.  Now that would taste good going down.

[wabene]

Mr Nelson always has a bright outlook on all things Twins. The kind of guy it would be fun to have a few beers with and watch a game. Knowledgeable but upbeat. This article is no exception as these are all valid points worth considering. It is easy to rehash the doom and gloom surrounding Buxton's health, but is it enjoyable?

Last year the diagnosis was patella tendonitis. They did some cleanup, drained some fluid and rehabbed it. It did not improve. This year they are saying he had an irritated plica and they cut out the purposeless tissue. There are three pertinent things reported about this procedure.

It has only a 6 week recovery.

It has a very high success rate.

It is hard to diagnose and it's often confused with patella tendonitis. 

I'm optimistic Buxton will have a bounce back season. I'm sure he wants a long career and the new training staff will have him focusing towards that end and less on explosiveness. Of course my optimism is of the cautious variety. 

[JD-TWINS]

Big chasm between MVP & productive……he’s averaged less than 70 games per year over 9 years…….granted, slightly higher w/o Covid year. Bottom line is he is a highly talented athlete that is relatively fragile - not that unusual.

I’d like to shoot for 110-120 games. Bigger, #1  ask is to be healthy for October!! Start 30-40 games in OF (1 or 2 times per week) & DH 75 games & Pinch hit 5 games. That would be a VERY productive season for Buxton. That’s 75% of all games in ‘24 when his average has been under 50% his first 9 years.

.230 BA would be ask #2. If he can do that he’ll stumble into 25 HR & 25 doubles & strike out less. He had 17 of each XBH in 80 starts in ‘23…….he wasn’t healthy in ‘23 either while hitting the 17 HR & 17 doubles.

Honestly, don’t care if the plan is to steal ZERO bases to maintain best health. The “play hard til you drop” mentality/mantra makes no sense to me.

We have plenty of options to catch fly balls in CF - we need the BAT PORTION of his $15M salary maintained through the year. He didn’t perform as a DH to his, or fan’s expectations in ‘23, because he was hurt most of the time ……..not because “he can’t hit as a DH”…,.,,that’s ridiculous!

[Blyleven2011]

Buxton's ability to be a difference maker  ...

Staying healthy  ...

Would love to see the Buxton  that hit the ball hard for doubles , his swing has changed more towards the homerun swing and the strikeouts are pathetic  ...

Would love to see Buxton  turning his singles into doubles  again ...

Would love to see Buxton in centerfield again , this is where he has been a difference maker  ...

Staying healthy  would be a difference maker ...

 

[Fatbat]

8 hours ago, rv78 said:

Here we go again. I will forever remember who Buxton is long after his career ends. A broken over-hyped player that did little to nothing to help the Twins win any meaningful games. I wonder how wrong you are about him being in so much pain he couldn't take the field defensively even once all season. I'd be willing to bet it was more of a managierial and FO decision not to play him there than it was his pain as the deciding factor. You can't tell me that runnning the bases was less painful than running in the outfield. If the FO had any smarts at all they would have shut him down completely by the All-Star break and had him undergo his follow up procedure then, making him even more ready for 2024. Not that that will probably make any difference..... Any betting man would figure he's going to get injured again anyway.

The twins are over .500 with buxton playing during his career so he is a difference maker. I am willing to wait until he retires to say his career was a bust. We as fans get 5 more years of him so enjoy the ride! It may get remarkably better!!

[sweetmusicviola16]

My guess is intern Gabe wrote this story? Maybe Gabe can still get Buxton elected to the 2023 All Star team 6 months after the fact. I mean Buxton is THAT good isn't he?

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Buxton's ability to be a difference maker  ...

Staying healthy  ...

Would love to see the Buxton  that hit the ball hard for doubles , his swing has changed more towards the homerun swing and the strikeouts are pathetic  ...

Would love to see Buxton  turning his singles into doubles  again ...

Would love to see Buxton in centerfield again , this is where he has been a difference maker  ...

Staying healthy  would be a difference maker ...

 

I would love to win the lottery.  I haven't.  The odds to do so are astronomical.  Buxton's odds at staying healthy are higher.

[jmlease1]

 

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

 I wonder how wrong you are about him being in so much pain he couldn't take the field defensively even once all season. I'd be willing to bet it was more of a managerial and FO decision not to play him there than it was his pain as the deciding factor. You can't tell me that running the bases was less painful than running in the outfield.

What a very silly take. Of course there's more stress on the knee by taking the field and jogging out to the position every inning and chasing after fly balls and line drives in ADDITION to running the bases. You're acting like doing one skips the other. And clearly the feeling and medical opinion was that putting Buxton out in the OF was going to cause enough problems and swelling in the knee that he would have to miss games immediately after playing in the OF (making him unable to even DH). You're also acting like this injury was something Buxton could have just overcome if he's wanted it a little more or the FO had just taken the wraps off, which is proof you don't know anything about Byron Buxton, a player who could have a sword stuck in his gut and would say he's good to go.

We'll see what Buxton looks like in spring training. If this cleanup to remove the plica (something most of us had never heard of before now) fixes the swelling and irritation in the knee and allows him to play comfortably...he's likely to be pretty good at the plate. He's still going to be streaky, but there are very few players in MLB that hit well when they have a bum knee, so if he's healthy he'll be better.

Can't bet on him staying healthy all season, because he hasn't done it. But past injury history isn't always predictive of future injuries and years of health doesn't guarantee continued health. We'll see, but sometimes all you need is to figure out the real problem to make it happen. Hopefully this cleanup procedure was that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

And clearly the feeling and medical opinion was that putting Buxton out in the OF was going to cause enough problems and swelling in the knee that he would have to miss games immediately after playing in the OF (making him unable to even DH).

The feeling and medical opinion must have changed when they put Buxton in the OF in September. 

[stringer bell]

6 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The feeling and medical opinion must have changed when they put Buxton in the OF in September. 

Desperate attempt.

[Nick Nelson]

31 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The feeling and medical opinion must have changed when they put Buxton in the OF in September. 

You mean when they tried it for one game and he got hurt? Maybe they were right! 

[1985Fan]

How Buxton’s injury was handled is the worst part of his 2023 season. He should have had the surgery done early on when it was obvious he wasn’t going to get to 100%. Of course us fans won’t know who to blame for that fiasco. Could have been the FO or the new trainer they brought in? Or could have been Buxton deciding that he could play. The outcome from last year should be that he needs to be able to play in the field or be on the injured list. No more playing while injured hoping he’ll heal while playing. 
If the same type of injury management happens again, someone needs to be held accountable. 

[KirbyDome89]

He actually kinda was that bad last year.

For a guy who has morphed into a 3 outcome hitter, and whose power is being touted, you can't post a below average OPS+ while clogging up the DH spot for the entire season. That's awful, and it undeniably hurt the Twins in ways other than just subpar production from the DH. It actually is encouraging that his sprint speed and base running grade out so well, but their impact is severely minimized when you're getting on base at a below average rate. 

I get why we're reaching to find some silver lining here, but a 2nd procedure on a (potentially?) chronic knee issue, on top of a lengthy injury history, on the heels of his worst season in the last 5 years doesn't leave much room for good vibes, no matter how hard we look. 

[ashbury]

34 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

He should have had the surgery done early on when it was obvious he wasn’t going to get to 100%.

20/20 hindsight.  Some injuries are "obvious" what needs to be done, say when you tear an ACL or break a bone.  But many others are in a gray area where "let's try rest first" is the physician's recommendation.  In Buxton's case they tried light/partial duty, and it didn't work, but this outcome doesn't mean it was "obvious" in April or May or June or July, whatever you consider to be "early."

I'll say that if I were in charge, I wouldn't repeat the same approach in 2024.  If he's not good to go in CF, then he DHes for one game and otherwise sits, and if he sits for more than a couple days then he goes to the IL.  The DH-to-save-him-for-October approach did not work.  But that's not because it was obvious going into 2023; we have 2023 to go from, now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It was foreseeable that the handling of Buxton in 2023 might not work. A ton of fans questioned the approach to Buxton in real time, from the very beginning when he didn’t play in live games in spring training, all the way through to activating him for Game 4 of the ALDS. The bottom line is if a player is hurt, he probably belongs on the injury list. That was the assumption of many people including me in 2023. Some people made an exception for Buxton despite evidence, because we have all seen how good he can be at times. Fair enough. 

[rv78]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

What a very silly take. Of course there's more stress on the knee by taking the field and jogging out to the position every inning and chasing after fly balls and line drives in ADDITION to running the bases.

Running is running. Jogging is less stressful than running. Which is MORE painful? Running the bases or running after balls hit in the outfield. Again, running is running. We are talking about pain, not stress. Where did I mention stress to the knee in my post? Hmmm... can't seem to find it anywere. Pain and stress are 2 different things. Don't confuse the two or twist my words to fit your narritive.

[stringer bell]

I think there were multiple approaches to Buxton. Yes, at first the plan was to save him a bit in the colder weather by using him exclusively as a DH, then it morphed into hoping that he'd be healthy enough to play in the field if he continued only as a DH. Then, he stayed on the IL for extra time after getting bruised ribs and a pulled hammy in the hope that the extended rest and rehab would get him ready to play, either as a more effective DH or perhaps in the field.

He suffered from long slumps with so many strikeouts. I don't know if it was because he was only a DH or if it was because he never was fully healthy. 

[Paul Walerius]

23 hours ago, rv78 said:

Here we go again. I will forever remember who Buxton is long after his career ends. A broken over-hyped player that did little to nothing to help the Twins win any meaningful games. I wonder how wrong you are about him being in so much pain he couldn't take the field defensively even once all season. I'd be willing to bet it was more of a managierial and FO decision not to play him there than it was his pain as the deciding factor. You can't tell me that runnning the bases was less painful than running in the outfield. If the FO had any smarts at all they would have shut him down completely by the All-Star break and had him undergo his follow up procedure then, making him even more ready for 2024. Not that that will probably make any difference..... Any betting man would figure he's going to get injured again anyway.

I agree slightly.   If he couldn't play the OF he should have been shut down before season started.   I don't think he is able to be a DH every day.   He took one bad AB into the next.  You could argue that it was because of the injury, but that makes my point.  If healthy we need him out there in CF at least 60-70% of the time.   With Bux and Willi on the base paths, that would be a lot of fun.    Coaches need to cut the players loose to steal more bases, especially if there are guys hitting .200.  It puts more pressure on defenses, which could create more hits for those guys.  

[Whitey333]

OMG.  Here it is the first day of a new year and already Twins Daily finds it necessary to bore us with yet another in a series of Buxton promotion articles and Buxton this and Buxton that.  I would have loved to see what he could have done had he been healthy.  But come on its going  on 9 years of potential and what is.  I don't wish Byron any more bad luck but the organization has paid him well over 100 million over his career.  They've been very fair to him to a point it's hurting the team.  Please Twins Daily we surely must have more relevant things to discuss.

[jmlease1]

17 hours ago, rv78 said:

Running is running. Jogging is less stressful than running. Which is MORE painful? Running the bases or running after balls hit in the outfield. Again, running is running. We are talking about pain, not stress. Where did I mention stress to the knee in my post? Hmmm... can't seem to find it anywere. Pain and stress are 2 different things. Don't confuse the two or twist my words to fit your narritive.

So because you didn't mention stress to the knee in your post, I can't talk about it in my response? Who knows and who cares which is more painful, the issue was that asking someone to do more of an activity that is causing pain, stress, swelling, etc isn't going to be better than having them do less of it. If Buxton had tried to play in the field, he would have been doing more running, jogging, standing, etc and putting more strain on a knee that was never fully healthy, than just DH-ing.

The plan didn't really work out because Buxton's knee never responded. It looks like they might have gotten the diagnosis wrong, but people that know a lot more about medicine sure seem to be saying "yeah, this totally could have happened". I suppose if your preference was to get Buxton on the IL faster, he should have just gone out there until he couldn't walk or something, but the team (not unreasonably) thought he could contribute at the plate as a DH. It's important to remember that Buxton had an OPS of .881 through April; the first 20% of the season the plan looked like it was working out ok, because while we missed Buxton in the field, he was producing well at the plate. It wasn't until May that things started going downhill.

[PatPfund]

Well... if it has a Nick Nelson byline on it, I'm gonna read it, and especially here I was wondering what kind of microscope would be used. But, the positive notes are pretty valid, especially if you look at early year performance when the knee was probably at its healthiest. (Conversely, when looking at the full season stats, the early peak was high enough to throw off how dreadful Byron was as the year went on.)

Officially, I'm 'doubting neutral' about Bryon's health. First off, I believe nothing released offseason about his health; the Twins, whether for strategy or player PR reasons are absolutely opaque about health reports. You pretty much have to watch what they do, and ignore what they say when it comes to health. (Ex: I didn't get the Solano signing at first last year, but as it became all too clear that Kirilloff and Polanco weren't going to start the season, and that Miranda was actually hurt, it made more sense.

But unlike some, I do believe in the injury, and the limitations (maybe it helps that I have a crank knee and played tons of OF in my time). It was clear Buxton was DHing because he couldn't play the field (which is more stressful for two reasons; one as pointed out, playing OF comes ON TOP of hitting; two, because on offense the destinations are set in place with known stops and a groomed track while the infield can mean dashes in any direction on grass with changes in course and speed to chase a moving target). I also noted that a peak performance by Byron, especially those that involved baserunning often preceded an 0-20 run (classic chronic knee result). I also believe in Buxton's raw talent, and his will to play to his maximum.

If the surgery helped, there has been plenty of recovery time, and we should see Byron in the field in Spring Training. If we start hearing junk about saving him for real games, I'll shift to full skeptic mode.

My best hope is that the surgery helped, and the Twins are MUCH better at managing what is likely a chronic issue than they were last year. Give him rest days, don't bat him in the 3/4 slots as a given (lessening ABs is a good thing for a chronic knee), communicate better with him about pain levels, put him on the IL more (maybe even regularly) so he doesn't limit the roster when hurt. Will they do any of that? Doubt it, but I can hope based on last year's DH-only failures.

 

[Nick Nelson]

7 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

OMG.  Here it is the first day of a new year and already Twins Daily finds it necessary to bore us with yet another in a series of Buxton promotion articles and Buxton this and Buxton that.  I would have loved to see what he could have done had he been healthy.  But come on its going  on 9 years of potential and what is.  I don't wish Byron any more bad luck but the organization has paid him well over 100 million over his career.  They've been very fair to him to a point it's hurting the team.  Please Twins Daily we surely must have more relevant things to discuss.

I'm sorry to tell you but Byron Buxton and his outlook are extremely relevant to the 2024 Twins lol

[Nick Nelson]

On 12/31/2023 at 1:20 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

He actually kinda was that bad last year.

For a guy who has morphed into a 3 outcome hitter, and whose power is being touted, you can't post a below average OPS+ while clogging up the DH spot for the entire season. That's awful, and it undeniably hurt the Twins in ways other than just subpar production from the DH. It actually is encouraging that his sprint speed and base running grade out so well, but their impact is severely minimized when you're getting on base at a below average rate. 

I'll grant you this, but here's my take on it: doesn't matter how much playing DH diminished his value, looking forward, because the Twins aren't going to do that again. I'm quite confident that if he can't play the field in some capacity he's going to be on the injured list. 

If he puts up the same offensive production from 2023 as a (mostly) center fielder, he has value. His OPS last year (.731) was exactly average for an MLB CF. 

[Jocko87]

On 12/31/2023 at 12:52 PM, 1985Fan said:

How Buxton’s injury was handled is the worst part of his 2023 season. He should have had the surgery done early on when it was obvious he wasn’t going to get to 100%. Of course us fans won’t know who to blame for that fiasco. Could have been the FO or the new trainer they brought in? Or could have been Buxton deciding that he could play. The outcome from last year should be that he needs to be able to play in the field or be on the injured list. No more playing while injured hoping he’ll heal while playing. 
If the same type of injury management happens again, someone needs to be held accountable. 

The new trainer has a lot to do with it, just not the way you are thinking. Buxton didn't even get a cortisone shot until late September.

I remember being very skeptical about Polo out of spring training as they hadn't cut anything, just rest and rehab. Polo had other legs injuries but no problems with the knee. He seems to be a longer term kinda guy which may have been part of hiring him, what with Buxton and Correa in the fold. Don't cut or shoot up unless absolutely required. I can work with that as generally a better long term approach.

My gut tells me they were sure the plica needed to go sometime in August and the time line didn't work.

The injury management is not a problem for me. I sadly suspect the knee will be fine but something else may be a problem instead.

[KirbyDome89]

On 1/1/2024 at 7:10 PM, Nick Nelson said:

I'll grant you this, but here's my take on it: doesn't matter how much playing DH diminished his value, looking forward, because the Twins aren't going to do that again. I'm quite confident that if he can't play the field in some capacity he's going to be on the injured list. 

If he puts up the same offensive production from 2023 as a (mostly) center fielder, he has value. His OPS last year (.731) was exactly average for an MLB CF. 

For sure his value rises if it's CF or bust. I'm not nearly as confident the Twins will take such a hardline stance. Hopefully I'm wrong. 

[The_Phantom]

Buxton has sold out for the long ball, which is why is hard hit rate is still pretty good. But for a player with his skillset, I don't know that that is actually a positive. He still has elite speed, but he's become a 3-true-outcome type player either because they don't want him on the basepath much, or there's just a lack of understanding that his biggest asset is his speed. 
 
Of course with the continual injury concerns he's just become a "well let's get whatever we can out of him and you have to be happy about it" type player.