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Like it or not, Byron Buxton is going to be part of the Twins' plans going forward. He's under contract for another five years, at a total cost of $75 million. Especially given their financial constraints, the front office would likely feel compelled to try and keep building around him, even if they didn't entirely believe in his ability to bounce back.
Luckily, there are tangible reasons to believe he can do so. The Twins say they're feeling good about Buxton's health at this stage of the offseason, expressing their intention to plan around him as at least a part-time center fielder in 2024. He's a full year removed from his original knee surgery, and a follow-up procedure in October was intended to alleviate the lingering issues. It would hardly be strange for Buxton to return in a much better place physically when he arrives in spring training; we've seen it happen before.
However, that leads us to another question: Even if relatively healthy ... is Buxton even that good anymore? What we saw in the past season casts some doubt, as he seemingly transformed into an all-or-nothing power hitter prone to massive slumps.
Despite launching some majestic blasts, his overall production was below-average in 2023, as reflected by a 98 OPS+ in the 85 games he was able to play. He appeared exclusively as a designated hitter, delivering zero defensive value. There's no two ways about it: Buxton had a rough season and was more of a detriment than an asset to the Twins' division-winning efforts.
Is the 30-year-old cooked? I think it's far too early to say that. Let's take a closer look at some of Buck's metrics from 2023, in search of silver linings to take forward.
He was still hitting the ball as hard as ever.
It was plain to see, last year, that Buxton's issues with his right leg--the backside engine of his powerful swing--were inhibiting him at the plate. Despite this, he managed to produce a lot of power, both in terms of production (17 HR and .203 ISO in 347 PA) and underlying measurements.
Buxton's average exit velocity (91.5 MPH) was in the 84th percentile among MLB hitters. His Barrel rate was 90th-percentile, and his hard-hit rate in the 74th. Buxton actually produced the single hardest-hit ball of his entire career in 2023--a 116.9-MPH smash off Cardinals reliever John King on Aug. 1 that teleported to the warning track for a double. He also hit three home runs farther than 450 feet. Buxton's power has not really subsided due to injury, even as other elements of his game have deteriorated.
He was also still really fast.
Surprisingly, the speed also has not declined that much. It's fairly incredible, given how hobbled he was last year, but Buxton's sprint speed remained firmly in the elite tier at 29.5 feet per second, faster than 94 percent of all other major leaguers. This offers some reason for faith that (if he is able to get back out into center field) he can still track down just about anything out there.
Not only that, but he was as good as ever on the bases.
Buxton's enduring speed, combined with his underrated instincts and technique on the basepaths, helped him maintain this core aspect of his value: when he gets on base, he makes things happen.
In addition to tracking sprint speed, Statcast also has a metric to measure baserunning value, derived mainly from the ability to take extra bases on batted balls. Running fast doesn't necessarily equate to effective baserunning; Amed Rosario, for example, was in the 34th percentile with negative baserunning value last year, despite his 95th-percentile sprint speed.
Buxton has always rated as a good baserunner, but his 91st-percentile baserunning value in 2023 represented his highest ranking since 2017. Even with a bad knee, Buxton was still smart, aggressive, and fundamentally sound on the basepaths, inspiring hope that (with better health) he can keep offering an edge in this facet of the game.
He developed some patience.
This has been quite an interesting development, for a hitter who was once the league's least patient hitter. Buxton was always a pretty free swinger, reaching a new extreme in the pandemic season, when he drew two walks in 135 plate appearances. His 1.5% walk rate was the lowest in baseball.
Since then, he has gradually increased his willingness to take a free pass, to the point where last year's career-high 10.1% rate was downright solid, ranking in the 71st percentile. I think it's safe to say that even in his healthier form, Buxton is likely to be a low-average power hitter, but he can provide much more balanced offensive value by drawing the occasional base on balls, to keep pitchers honest and put his aforementioned baserunning skills to greater use.
Even in such a rough season, Buxton was not THAT bad.
I'm not gonna hoist a 0.7 fWAR and .311 wOBA as numbers to be celebrated. They could aptly be described as mediocre. But for a guy who was playing in the worst physical state in which we will see him (hopefully), constantly bothered by knee pain to the point that he couldn't even take the field once defensively all year, mediocre offense is kind of... impressive? He was still better than replacement-level, and his final wOBA was only a few ticks below the .318 league average.
Buxton's strengths remained strong enough last year that he was able to perform competently despite his severe impediments, because the core components of his game–the power, the speed, the sheer talent–remain intact.
In a very bad year that we'd all like to forget, Buxton still showed what he's capable of. Now he needs to make sure everyone remembers who he really is.
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