Projecting the Twins 2024 Opening Day Roster: Version 1.0

[Cody Christie]

The offseason is just starting, but the Twins have one of baseball’s best rosters heading into the winter. Here is how the 26-man roster would shake out if the season started today.

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Every front office must take stock of their roster entering the offseason, to identify holes and decide on a team’s most pressing needs. The Twins saw an influx of young talent during the 2023 season, which helps in making long-term roster decisions. In previous years, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been very patient when making offseason moves, so there will be some fluidity with the names listed below in the coming months. So, which players would crack the team’s Opening Day roster if the season started today?

Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers
Minnesota loves using a two-catcher rotation during the regular season, so players are getting regular rest at baseball’s most demanding defensive position. Jeffers had a tremendous season at the plate, leading all catchers in wRC+. Behind the plate, he has been known for his framing, but he dropped from the 70th percentile in 2022 to the 25th percentile last season. At the Winter Meetings, Falvey mentioned Vázquez among four veterans the Twins are shopping this offseason. Vázquez struggled offensively last season with a 65 OPS+ but continued to rank well defensively. He finished the season ranked fourth in SDI and ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in Framing and Blocks Above Average. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up if Vázquez were traded or one of the starters was injured.

Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco
This position group has depth at multiple positions and a strong combination of veterans and young pieces. The team reported that Correa is progressing well in his offseason routine, after having plantar fasciitis ruin his 2023 season. Kirilloff has yet to resume hitting following surgery in October to remove a bursa sac from his right shoulder, so he is the most significant question mark in this group. Farmer and Polanco are short-term pieces the team could trade this winter, with cheaper options available to take their place on the roster. Jose Miranda is another name fans should remember in the infield mix. His 2023 was an injury-marred disaster, but he is further along in his rehab than Kirilloff. Will the Twins use the two former top prospects in a platoon role at first base?

Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner
Minnesota’s outfield situation isn’t as straightforward, with injury question marks and Michael A. Taylor a free agent. Buxton is making strides after an offseason knee procedure, and the team sounds more optimistic about the possibility of him returning to center field next season. Like the other veterans mentioned above, Kepler is on the trade market with one year remaining of team control. He had a terrific second half, posting a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs, and it might be time for the team to maximize his trade value. Castro and Gordon will probably see time in center field, and Wallner will get his first chance at a full-time role. The Twins will also rely on other outfielders on the 40-man roster, like Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin.

Rotation (5): Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland
The Twins are in a better spot with their starting rotation at this point in the offseason than any other Twins team in recent memory. There were years in the Target Field era when it felt like the club had Jose Berrios and four rotational openings. Minnesota will be attempting to fill the holes left by the free-agent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery last season and will take on a role similar to that of Maeda in 2023. Ryan and Ober made positive strides last season, but there remain areas where they can become more consistent. Varland is penciled into the fifth spot in the rotation, but the team is shopping for other options on the trade market, which would push him to St. Paul to start the year. Simeon Woods Richardson is also on the 40-man roster, but he struggled at Triple-A last season and was nearly five years younger than the competition at that level. He could be asked to make starts for the Twins next season and just turned 23 years old in September. 

Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Kody Funderburk, Jordan Balazovic, Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands
Minnesota’s front office has tended not to spend money on bullpen options. Instead, they rely on internal options and minor-league pickups. Durán has been one of baseball’s best relievers since entering a late-inning role in 2022. The trio of Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar have shown the ability to fit into different setup roles, and they will have more responsibility in 2024. Funderburk had a tremendous debut and will be asked to be the bullpen’s second lefty, behind Thielbar. Alcalá has been pitching well in the winter leagues and can be an x-factor. Balazovic is out of options, so he must make the team or be passed through waivers. Sands and Josh Winder have one option remaining, so they will fight for one of the bullpens final spots. Matt Canterino is a dark horse option as he returns from Tommy John surgery. 

The Twins used 29 pitchers last season, so multiple relievers will make the trip back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What will change with the 26-man roster before Opening Day? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Nashvilletwin]

This is a decent lineup - probably able to contend in a weak division, but certainly not expected to contend for a pennant.

The biggest holes are: 1) middle of the rotation starter and 2) backend of the bullpen (two spots at least).

The position player lineup, assuming a healthy enough Buxton playing 80 games in CF and 40 games at DH, is actually solid. The conundrum, given payroll targets, is that we will likely need to change the position player lineup (i.e. by trading Polanco, Kepler, and/or Farmer) in order to fill some or all of the pitching holes identified above.

The good news: if Lee and Martin were ready, that would not be a problem. The bad news: that is likely not yet the case and the info necessary to make that judgment won’t be available until at the end of spring training at the earliest and by the All Star break at the latest.

[tony&rodney]

The team looks pretty good. Health and how young players respond in their early years are always unpredictable, but this team can win 85 games and the AL Central. While the starting pitching may not be as strong and the loss of Solano may be felt more than expected, the potential return of others (Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Paddack) plus the continued growth and production from the young players (Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Martin, Varland, Funderburk, Alcala) in a full season should make the 2024 team stronger than the 2023 team. 

[Fatbat]

I can see why the FO can cut payroll. We have only lost Gray(that really matters)so we can literally do nothing but send in the next man up and let it shake out. Not that it would be fielding the best team possible but this 26man can win alot of games. Sometimes less is more. 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The team looks pretty good. Health and how young players respond in their early years are always unpredictable, but this team can win 85 games and the AL Central. While the starting pitching may not be as strong and the loss of Solano may be felt more than expected, the potential return of others (Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Paddack) plus the continued growth and production from the young players (Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Martin, Varland, Funderburk, Alcala) in a full season should make the 2024 team stronger than the 2023 team. 

I prefer Solano over Gordon overall from a bench point, but he doesn't play OF.

.

[jmlease1]

Until any off-season moves happen, this projection looks about right. 

The lineup could be the strength of this team in 2024, but it all depends on health for them. the talent is there, but how healthy will Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Polanco, and Jeffers be? (assuming Polanco stays of course) One of the bigger question marks is Gordon: he was quite effective in 2022, but 2023 was a totally lost season. tough to count on him, but at the same time, his role would likely be backup OF/DH on this roster.

I'm not expecting significant changes in the bullpen; maybe they'll add a veteran arm on the cheap, but I'm generally adverse to spending significant money on anything other than retaining your top bullpen guys anyways. I still like Alcala, and if he's healthy and throwing well again I think he could add a lot. the Balazovic/Sands/Winder spots...these are guys with talent that haven't translated. I hope they're spending time at driveline or the equivalent trying to refine something and and improve.

I feel confident the FO will make a move to add a starter and push Varland back to AAA; they know they need to have depth.

[Drtwins]

I feel everyone is on the same page here. The current 26 man projection looks solid with Miranda and Martin waiting in the wings if Kirilloff and Buxton aren't available.

Could potentially bring in a cheap veteran CF option closer to Spring Training to compete for Gordon's spot if there is a fear Buxton won't be available in the field as Martin wouldn't likely begin the year in the majors.

As already commented, I'm sure a few veteran relief pitchers will be brought in on minor league deals to try and beat out Winder, Sands, and Balazovic for the last couple bullpen spots.

The only major hole would be trying to fill a top of the rotation starter spot to push Varland to the #6 starter for depth. Even with the reduced payroll there is still optimism.

[mikelink45]

My does the OF look weak,  Buxton is not someone to count on and if we trade Kepler we have an OF of Wallner, Castro or Gordon and Larnach.   Yikes does that look bad even if it is just in print.  I am not ready to rely on Austin Martin either.  

[PatPfund]

Good first pass at the roster! I suspect it will be a lot different at the end of the FL work, because there are likely to be trades/FAs coming, but I do think this shows the clear strengths (especially infield depth), and weaknesses (rotation depth, OF esp. CF depth) of the team.

Not sure we'd score another Lopez, but an SP in the #2-#3 range would force depth, and a veteran OF would could cover CF as MAT did last year, or be a 4th if Buxton (miracle!!!) or Martin start to lock down the middle. (Personally, I'd be shocked if Byron even played 20 games in CF next year; the mid-20s speed is gone forever, and moving to a corner is more likely to keep him healthy.)

And while a-year-ago me would be shocked to read this, I'd be pulling Max mostly off the For Sale table unless an offer blows them away. If they trade him, they are just going to have to get another vet to fill in his spot, because I think there are serious questions about whether Gordon and Larnach are MLB starters, and Byron's knees have kept him out of the OF since Aug '22?. Which would leave you with Wallner... and maybe Kirillof, and wrecking some of Castro's value by locking him down to a position.

 

[pierre75275]

I think that they will bring in a starter via trade and maybe a bullpen piecealos and push Varland to the pen.

I also think that Jorge Polanco will get traded. 

We will see these articles are always fun.

[sweetmusicviola16]

This all looks about right at this point in time. I would say that this team will repeat in a weak division. My biggest concerns about this roster is the SP. I'm not at all comfortable with Paddock being the #4 SP. Very poor injury history there. More comfortable with Varland tbh. Also, CF is a huge issue imo. If you get 60 games out of Buxton you better thank your lucky stars. Right now it would be Castro and Gordon in CF most likely.

[Doctor Gast]

A very decent roster much better than we started out at this time. last year. We don't need any FAs. All we really need is a Lopez type trade, catching upgrade, more clutch hitting  & less SOs & look out World Series here we come. Last off season I had given this FO an A+ (OK maybe an A+ was too generous it could have been better), until they signed Gallo then I immediately knocked it down to a B/B+. Let's avoid the Gallo brain fart this season & come up with an A+. Go Twins!

[Brett]

That looks like a pretty solid look, and I wouldn’t argue with any of it.

What’s the over/under on the number of those players who will be on the roster at the end of the season? I’m thinking 17.

[Major League Ready]

The optimistic view reveals a fair amount of upside.  A resurgence from Buxton and Correa would make this team better than most of us are counting on.  We also only got 239 PAs from Lewis.  An entire season with Lewis raises the bar too.  The other guy that has unrealized ceiling is Kirilloff.  I just get the sense there is a beast ready to emerge.  We also won't have the constant K machine (Gallo) in the lineup and Vazquez can't be as bad as last year either if he is still here.  That's my upside take on the situation.

[DocBauer]

Yep, that seems about right for now. And it's not a bad 26, plus some depth already mentioned.

Offensively, Taylor in CF and Solano as a partial regular, are all that is missing from a lineup that was  one if the most productive around in the 2nd half. Lewis, and AK both healthy, Wallner and Julien around for a full year, a semi-healthy Buxton, there's reasons for optimism that the offense can be better...hopefully more consistent...than last year.

I don't hate that rotation, despite bring a step down, or bullpen, though it's not where I want it yet.

I don't want to tear down the team, I don't want to trade a bunch of prospects, and I know the FO isn't going to lay out major $ I. FA.

STILL, they pull off another Gray/Lopez kind of deal the rotation is better, deeper, and it might even affect the pen. 

FA steal of a deal come February, acquired in a trade, or a previously good arm on a rebound, I'd just love to add one good, solid, quality arm to deepen the pen. Keeps Varland in the rotation, and makes only the front two spots to be figured out, auditioned for, and rotated through.

That's not too much to ask for is it?

Might still want help in CF as Buxton insurance. A legitimate option like Taylor was, not just "we have a guy or two who can play it" until Martin is ready. (Yeah, I think he ends up there). But then again, how much of an investment do we want to make if we have Buxton and Martin soon?

Another RH bat would be nice, but where does he fit, and at what price? And is that bat necessary when you look at that lineup with more time together?

Get me 2 good arms...plus a couple fliers...and one of those last 2 options, and I'm happy with this club.

[bigdave]

I think this is pretty accurate at this point, but I certainly hope the team addresses the rotation. I have no faith that Paddack will make it to July healthy and asking Varland to put in a full season as a starter at this level feels like a reach.

[Parfigliano]

OF looks like a real weak spot and thats with Buxton able to play CF 80 games which I dont think he will.

[Fatbat]

@jmlease1 Everyone will be healthy and a potential allstar until they aren’t. Its nice to have actual playable depth in AAA also. The FO really should focus on pitching!!

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My does the OF look weak,  Buxton is not someone to count on and if we trade Kepler we have an OF of Wallner, Castro or Gordon and Larnach.   Yikes does that look bad even if it is just in print.  I am not ready to rely on Austin Martin either.  

How about larnach  , this could be his last hurrah to wear a twins uniform  ...

[stringer bell]

I anticipate a couple of competitions in spring training, including Gordon, Larnach and perhaps Martin. There should also be a competition for the last bullpen spots. Injuries occur, as well, that could change who makes the club and who goes to St. Paul. 

Castro made the club in 2023 because both Polanco and Kirilloff started the season on IL. He became a key member of the team. 

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I can see why the FO can cut payroll. We have only lost Gray(that really matters)so we can literally do nothing but send in the next man up and let it shake out. Not that it would be fielding the best team possible but this 26man can win alot of games. Sometimes less is more. 

Maeda - Mahle - Gallo - Solano - Taylor - Gray is about $44M…….these guys are all gone.

Arbitration guys probably are an additional $6M over last year.

$154M less $44M plus $6M = $116M total …… Twins are certainly within a couple million either way.

They need to move Polanco and it frees up $20 - $24M to spend and stay at $130M or less. A typical year to year payroll increase is 5-10%……at $130M we have a 16% reduction from ‘23. That has to work for ownership!

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My does the OF look weak,  Buxton is not someone to count on and if we trade Kepler we have an OF of Wallner, Castro or Gordon and Larnach.   Yikes does that look bad even if it is just in print.  I am not ready to rely on Austin Martin either.  

Agreed, Buxton is maybe 40 games in OF if things go well and Martin will take until June/July to try out. Castro can fill in for some months - maybe Gordon helps if he hits OK in Spring Training?

Gotta focus on trading Polanco and hang on to Max! Potentially, could trade Kepler in offseason if they plan on signing someone like Duvall OR if they think Lee is ready sooner than expected and Lewis could go to LF possibly. I don’t exchange Max for a different veteran OF……only if someone out of the system pushes him out mid-summer……doubt that happens.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Yep, that seems about right for now. And it's not a bad 26, plus some depth already mentioned.

Offensively, Taylor in CF and Solano as a partial regular, are all that is missing from a lineup that was  one if the most productive around in the 2nd half. Lewis, and AK both healthy, Wallner and Julien around for a full year, a semi-healthy Buxton, there's reasons for optimism that the offense can be better...hopefully more consistent...than last year.

I don't hate that rotation, despite bring a step down, or bullpen, though it's not where I want it yet.

I don't want to tear down the team, I don't want to trade a bunch of prospects, and I know the FO isn't going to lay out major $ I. FA.

STILL, they pull off another Gray/Lopez kind of deal the rotation is better, deeper, and it might even affect the pen. 

FA steal of a deal come February, acquired in a trade, or a previously good arm on a rebound, I'd just love to add one good, solid, quality arm to deepen the pen. Keeps Varland in the rotation, and makes only the front two spots to be figured out, auditioned for, and rotated through.

That's not too much to ask for is it?

Might still want help in CF as Buxton insurance. A legitimate option like Taylor was, not just "we have a guy or two who can play it" until Martin is ready. (Yeah, I think he ends up there). But then again, how much of an investment do we want to make if we have Buxton and Martin soon?

Another RH bat would be nice, but where does he fit, and at what price? And is that bat necessary when you look at that lineup with more time together?

Get me 2 good arms...plus a couple fliers...and one of those last 2 options, and I'm happy with this club.

Theoretically, v. LH starter:

Vazquez - C

Jeffers - DH

Castro - Buxton - Kepler in OF

Lewis - CC - Farmer - Kirilloff in IF ……7 RH bats should be enough.

[mikelink45]

10 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

How about larnach  , this could be his last hurrah to wear a twins uniform  ...

I agree, he has disappointed each try.  It might be a mental issue now.  But it would be really nice to see him break through and produce the way we had thought he would. 

[JD-TWINS]

Am assuming they trade Polanco for some benefit but principally to shed his salary v. his limited availability.

‘23 OPS for projected starters v. RH pitching:

.840 - .750 - .793 - .920 - .816 - .711 - .877 - .732  - .859

Julien - Castro - Kirilloff - Lewis - Kepler - CC - Wallner - Buxton - Jeffers ……..the only anticipated regression might be Castro & Wallner - right?

Castro may have 25 sac bunts with this line-up as well as 25 bunt hits.

With talents like a healthy CC & Buxton sprinkled through the line-up is a big advantage! CC & Buxton can’t be worse than ‘23 & still be playing so this is pretty encouraging.

[TopGunn#22]

This is an accurate recap of what we have at this point of the off season having made zero moves of note.

What we're all waiting to find out is what will the roster look like when we open spring training and what it could look like once we break camp.  

I'm looking for a trade that will bring back a #2 type SP to the Twins rotation.  It is the biggest hole in our roster and the most urgent need to fill.  Anything else, like acquiring a CF as Buxton insurance, a bullpen piece and another SP really can't be considered until the Twins acquire that #2 guy for the rotation.  It's like the entire FA market holding their collective breath until Ohtani signed.  Yes, the Yankees traded for Soto (and Verdugo) but those were moves that showed the Yankees were definitely not in play for Ohtani.

I'm not really making a bold prediction that the Twins FO will sit out the top tier and even most or all of the 2nd tier of FA starting pitching.  This will frustrate all of us here on TD as we see SP after SP sign with everyone from the Royals and Tigers to the Cardinals, Dodgers and whoever else.  We can only HOPE that there is someone decent enough to be our #2 SP.  The money has always been on a trade to fill that hole but if we go FA I'd like to see us take a flyer on Trevor Bauer.  He's 32 years old, and with his baggage could probably be had for below market rate.  

There is not much to choose from in position player FA, but I think an affordable gamble would be OF Adam Duval.  He's capable of playing all 3 OF positions, and could give the Twins a RH power bat that could fill LF or CF against LH pitching.  

The question remains "who will the Twins eventually trade, who do they get, and how much money will they effectively shave from the current payroll allowing them to afford the pitcher that comes back?  

 

[Aerodeliria]

I think that they need a starter and a healthy outfielder ('healthy Buxton' is an oxymoron) who is a contact hitter. These can be obtained in trades. Will the Twins do it? I doubt it. I suspect they will try to grab a reclaim project from the scrapheap for pitching 'unfortunately' and ride with the outfielders that we already have.

 

I also think our pooh-poohing of Detroit as an actual threat is a mistake. They will be much better IMHO; they're taking steps to make themselves better while the Twins fiddle around with their calculators.

[stringer bell]

On 12/12/2023 at 6:33 PM, Aerodeliria said:

 

 

I also think our pooh-poohing of Detroit as an actual threat is a mistake. They will be much better IMHO; they're taking steps to make themselves better while the Twins fiddle around with their calculators.

According to their run differential, Detroit overperformed significantly last year. It is pretty rare to do so in consecutive seasons, so I expect that while Detroit has improved their roster, they won't take a quantum leap in their record--maybe getting to or just above .500.