Projecting the Twins 2024 Opening Day Roster: Version 1.0

This is a decent lineup - probably able to contend in a weak division, but certainly not expected to contend for a pennant.

The biggest holes are: 1) middle of the rotation starter and 2) backend of the bullpen (two spots at least).

The position player lineup, assuming a healthy enough Buxton playing 80 games in CF and 40 games at DH, is actually solid. The conundrum, given payroll targets, is that we will likely need to change the position player lineup (i.e. by trading Polanco, Kepler, and/or Farmer) in order to fill some or all of the pitching holes identified above.

The good news: if Lee and Martin were ready, that would not be a problem. The bad news: that is likely not yet the case and the info necessary to make that judgment won’t be available until at the end of spring training at the earliest and by the All Star break at the latest.

The team looks pretty good. Health and how young players respond in their early years are always unpredictable, but this team can win 85 games and the AL Central. While the starting pitching may not be as strong and the loss of Solano may be felt more than expected, the potential return of others (Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Paddack) plus the continued growth and production from the young players (Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Martin, Varland, Funderburk, Alcala) in a full season should make the 2024 team stronger than the 2023 team. 

I can see why the FO can cut payroll. We have only lost Gray(that really matters)so we can literally do nothing but send in the next man up and let it shake out. Not that it would be fielding the best team possible but this 26man can win alot of games. Sometimes less is more. 

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

The team looks pretty good. Health and how young players respond in their early years are always unpredictable, but this team can win 85 games and the AL Central. While the starting pitching may not be as strong and the loss of Solano may be felt more than expected, the potential return of others (Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Paddack) plus the continued growth and production from the young players (Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Martin, Varland, Funderburk, Alcala) in a full season should make the 2024 team stronger than the 2023 team. 

I prefer Solano over Gordon overall from a bench point, but he doesn't play OF.

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Until any off-season moves happen, this projection looks about right. 

The lineup could be the strength of this team in 2024, but it all depends on health for them. the talent is there, but how healthy will Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Polanco, and Jeffers be? (assuming Polanco stays of course) One of the bigger question marks is Gordon: he was quite effective in 2022, but 2023 was a totally lost season. tough to count on him, but at the same time, his role would likely be backup OF/DH on this roster.

I'm not expecting significant changes in the bullpen; maybe they'll add a veteran arm on the cheap, but I'm generally adverse to spending significant money on anything other than retaining your top bullpen guys anyways. I still like Alcala, and if he's healthy and throwing well again I think he could add a lot. the Balazovic/Sands/Winder spots...these are guys with talent that haven't translated. I hope they're spending time at driveline or the equivalent trying to refine something and and improve.

I feel confident the FO will make a move to add a starter and push Varland back to AAA; they know they need to have depth.

I feel everyone is on the same page here. The current 26 man projection looks solid with Miranda and Martin waiting in the wings if Kirilloff and Buxton aren't available.

Could potentially bring in a cheap veteran CF option closer to Spring Training to compete for Gordon's spot if there is a fear Buxton won't be available in the field as Martin wouldn't likely begin the year in the majors.

As already commented, I'm sure a few veteran relief pitchers will be brought in on minor league deals to try and beat out Winder, Sands, and Balazovic for the last couple bullpen spots.

The only major hole would be trying to fill a top of the rotation starter spot to push Varland to the #6 starter for depth. Even with the reduced payroll there is still optimism.

I think that they will bring in a starter via trade and maybe a bullpen piecealos and push Varland to the pen.

I also think that Jorge Polanco will get traded. 

We will see these articles are always fun.

This all looks about right at this point in time. I would say that this team will repeat in a weak division. My biggest concerns about this roster is the SP. I'm not at all comfortable with Paddock being the #4 SP. Very poor injury history there. More comfortable with Varland tbh. Also, CF is a huge issue imo. If you get 60 games out of Buxton you better thank your lucky stars. Right now it would be Castro and Gordon in CF most likely.

A very decent roster much better than we started out at this time. last year. We don't need any FAs. All we really need is a Lopez type trade, catching upgrade, more clutch hitting  & less SOs & look out World Series here we come. Last off season I had given this FO an A+ (OK maybe an A+ was too generous it could have been better), until they signed Gallo then I immediately knocked it down to a B/B+. Let's avoid the Gallo brain fart this season & come up with an A+. Go Twins!

The optimistic view reveals a fair amount of upside.  A resurgence from Buxton and Correa would make this team better than most of us are counting on.  We also only got 239 PAs from Lewis.  An entire season with Lewis raises the bar too.  The other guy that has unrealized ceiling is Kirilloff.  I just get the sense there is a beast ready to emerge.  We also won't have the constant K machine (Gallo) in the lineup and Vazquez can't be as bad as last year either if he is still here.  That's my upside take on the situation.

I think this is pretty accurate at this point, but I certainly hope the team addresses the rotation. I have no faith that Paddack will make it to July healthy and asking Varland to put in a full season as a starter at this level feels like a reach.

@jmlease1 Everyone will be healthy and a potential allstar until they aren’t. Its nice to have actual playable depth in AAA also. The FO really should focus on pitching!!

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My does the OF look weak,  Buxton is not someone to count on and if we trade Kepler we have an OF of Wallner, Castro or Gordon and Larnach.   Yikes does that look bad even if it is just in print.  I am not ready to rely on Austin Martin either.  

How about larnach  , this could be his last hurrah to wear a twins uniform  ...

This is an accurate recap of what we have at this point of the off season having made zero moves of note.

What we're all waiting to find out is what will the roster look like when we open spring training and what it could look like once we break camp.  

I'm looking for a trade that will bring back a #2 type SP to the Twins rotation.  It is the biggest hole in our roster and the most urgent need to fill.  Anything else, like acquiring a CF as Buxton insurance, a bullpen piece and another SP really can't be considered until the Twins acquire that #2 guy for the rotation.  It's like the entire FA market holding their collective breath until Ohtani signed.  Yes, the Yankees traded for Soto (and Verdugo) but those were moves that showed the Yankees were definitely not in play for Ohtani.

I'm not really making a bold prediction that the Twins FO will sit out the top tier and even most or all of the 2nd tier of FA starting pitching.  This will frustrate all of us here on TD as we see SP after SP sign with everyone from the Royals and Tigers to the Cardinals, Dodgers and whoever else.  We can only HOPE that there is someone decent enough to be our #2 SP.  The money has always been on a trade to fill that hole but if we go FA I'd like to see us take a flyer on Trevor Bauer.  He's 32 years old, and with his baggage could probably be had for below market rate.  

There is not much to choose from in position player FA, but I think an affordable gamble would be OF Adam Duval.  He's capable of playing all 3 OF positions, and could give the Twins a RH power bat that could fill LF or CF against LH pitching.  

The question remains "who will the Twins eventually trade, who do they get, and how much money will they effectively shave from the current payroll allowing them to afford the pitcher that comes back?  

I think that they need a starter and a healthy outfielder ('healthy Buxton' is an oxymoron) who is a contact hitter. These can be obtained in trades. Will the Twins do it? I doubt it. I suspect they will try to grab a reclaim project from the scrapheap for pitching 'unfortunately' and ride with the outfielders that we already have.

I also think our pooh-poohing of Detroit as an actual threat is a mistake. They will be much better IMHO; they're taking steps to make themselves better while the Twins fiddle around with their calculators.