The Twins Need an Emilio Pagán Replacement, and Badly

[Greggory Masterson]

No, seriously. Stop laughing. If the Twins don’t have a Pagán replacement in 2024, they will need a philosophy shift.

There’s no two ways about it: Emilio Pagan rode the rollercoaster as a Twin. He had high highs and low lows. He wasn’t at the top of anyone’s pecking order in the 2023 bullpen—including manager Rocco Baldelli’s—but he filled a role that doesn’t have an immediate replacement, and he was good in that role.

When one thinks about the essential members of the bullpen, archetypes like closer, setup, lefty specialist, and fireman come to mind. Pagán’s run in 2022 as the closer was disastrous. His career home-run numbers prevented him from being used as a fireman, and by the end of his tenure, he was merely an occasional setup man.

Instead, Pagán was a middle innings merchant--and he was pretty daggum good at it. Bolstered by a career-low 0.6 home runs per nine innings (less than half the rate of his next-best year), he pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA, while leading the bullpen at 69 1/3 innings over 66 appearances. He was perfect in his role, holding opponents to an OPS in the .400s between medium- and low-leverage appearances.

His performance was substantially worse in high-leverage situations (.828 OPS against). Still, as a good organization should do, the Twins played to his strengths, only putting him in high-leverage situations for 22 percent of the batters he faced in 2023. He threw at least once in every inning except the second, and 80 percent of his appearances came before the eighth.

Going into 2024, the Twins have a backend that seems pretty solid. Jhoan Duran is paired with right-handed setup men Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart, with Caleb Thielbar primed to return as the high-leverage lefty and Kody Funderburk slotted to fill the second lefty role. The middle innings go-to guy isn’t as clear—especially if the team intends to use someone the way they used Pagán.

It wasn’t only the innings and in-game situations that made Pagán’s usage unique; he was also relied on for his proverbial "rubber arm," in a way that no other Twin has been over the past few years. Last offseason, I pointed out Pagán’s unusual place by the end of 2022. They would throw him wherever and whenever the situation called for it, and he excelled.

There’s a strange feeling in the pit of my stomach that Emilio Pagán is going to lead the bullpen in innings https://t.co/qaF0Bua8cm

— Greggory (@greggtmasterson) February 27, 2023

The rest-conscious Twins tend to err on the side of underworking relievers. Pagán threw back-to-back games 14 percent of the time and a team-high 38 percent of the time on exactly one day’s rest. A total of 52 percent of his appearances were on one or fewer days’ rest, which was tied for the most often among Twins relievers with Jax. However, Pagán threw more than one inning in 21 percent of his appearances, and at least two in nine percent of them.

None of the “short-relief” guys who tended to throw on less rest could match Pagán’s multi-inning output. Jax never threw more than an inning. Stewart's 18 percent of appearances matching that criterion is as close as it got, and he only threw two innings once.

Some pitchers threw multiple innings more often than Pagán, but those were guys like Brent Headrick, Jordan Balazovic, Jorge Alcala, and José De León, a group of abused arms that could be swapped out if necessary. Also, did you know that Cole Sands threw a whopping 21 2/3 innings, despite seemingly being on the roster all season?

De León could, potentially, have been another Pagán-type reliever, before his season ended in Tommy John surgery. Based on how the club threw Alcala to the wolves last year after a return from injury, he may be an option for bulk, productive work in the middle innings. Maybe Funderburk carries some of that load as well.

Balazovic is out of options, and the former starter is a potential fill-in in the role, but his lack of strikeouts makes it challenging to put faith in him. Still, the Twins are committed to using him in a bullpen role, so he's in position to take on the burden.

One exciting possibility Matt Canterino, who is also coming off Tommy John surgery but may someday be a late-inning reliever. Canterino might fill a Pagán-like role as he settles into a bullpen role, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins are keen on a Pagán-like usage pattern for a recovering prospect. Also, reports indicate he’s still seen as a starter by the Twins’ brass.

The difficulty in replacing Pagán isn’t that he threw well in the middle innings, or that he threw on little rest, or that he could be counted on for more than three outs at a time—it’s that he did all three. It’s pretty straightforward to replace one of those traits, maybe even two. But all three? That’s a different beast.

I haven’t mentioned any free-agent relievers because, let’s be honest, projecting the Twins’ reliever targets is a futile exercise made more impotent by payroll questions. Who knows? Maybe they’ll throw $2 million at a Joe Smith equivalent and hope it works, but it’s almost not worth discussing. They’ll probably bring in two minor-league veterans or waiver claims that will mysteriously stick.

If a Pagán replacement doesn’t appear, they’ll need to change their philosophy on handling the middle innings. Maybe they throw their bigger arms earlier, or more often, or on shorter rest, to pick up the slack. Maybe the Green Line will bring them middle relievers on a tryout, in addition to the bulk arms for blowouts or injuries.

The point is that the Twins—to a degree—built a bullpen hierarchy around Pagán’s strengths, and it’s going to take some shuffling to work around the lack of a rubber-armed, 2.99 ERA, middle-innings guy. There are options, but it’s hard to see it working as well as it did in 2023.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I think it’s Louie Varland. 

[Karbo]

IMO we won't know until Feb. who all is in the pen. History tells us this FO will add one or two minor league FA with an invite to ST, and decide from there. I think Alcala will get an opportunity and who knows what happens.

[Doctor Gast]

Much like Colume`, It was clear very early that they couldn't handle high leverage so why did it take them soooo long to remove them & put them in low leverage & slowly build them up to mid leverage? We desperately need a front line SP to push Varland to a piggy-back role with Paddack. & have Canterino, Headrick, SWR, Winder, & eventually Festa (who's ever hot) to fill in in long reliever & spot starter. Resolvido

[old nurse]

What they have not replaced is Trevor May. That is what they need to replace

[yeahyabetcha]

How about getting 2-3 innings per game from Jax, Stewart, Varland, etc., instead of rolling out 4-5 relievers every game?

[JD-TWINS]

Balazovic - Alcala - Headrick are competent guys to get through 4-5 outs in an outing…….there will be ups & downs but that’s baseball.

My best solution is trading with the re-tooling Brewers…….Take on $6.25M in salary by picking up 2 years of Devin Williams……Rodriguez - Gordon - Winder (2 guys that can play in ‘24 & a solid high end prospect)….or whoever - make this happen and he covers either the 8th or 9th depending upon the day. Pushes Jax & Stewart & the two lefties back to the 6th & 7th.

With Williams in our Pen we are squarely in Win Now mode!

[roger]

Every year we believe the Twins need to sign at least one good free agent reliever.  Every year spring training comes and they didn't do it.  Hope like heck it is different come March, but am fearful it won't be.

Expect it is realistic to hope that either Alcala or Balazovic will step up.  But can we count on that? 

Regardless of what they say about Canterino, considering how long he has been out and how little he pitched the past several years, he isn't going to get to the Twins as a starter in 2024.  Sure, stretch him out in spring training and have him start in the minors the first couple months to get some innings.  But I would think he would be most valuable by moving to the pen around Memorial Day and joining the Twins bullpen before the break.  Continue to believe that young man can, and will, be special.

[saviking]

Daggum .. and all this time I thought it was doggon

[saviking]

17 minutes ago, saviking said:

Daggum .. and all this time I thought it was doggon

Or daggum. But I'm sure you are right

[TopGunn#22]

JD-Twins, I know you have been advocating for the Twins to acquire Devin Williams and I agree he would be a tremendous and worthwhile acquisition.  But I just can't see the Twins getting him. 

I look at who the Brewers may be willing to trade and I just don't see the Twins being able to out bid a team like the Dodgers if the Brewers were willing to deal Williams or Corbin Burnes.  The Dodgers have the young talent to give up a LOT to get those guys and the deep pockets to ensure that they would forgo FA to remain with the Dodgers.

Williams and Burnes would amount to about 50-52 points of value on BBTV.  The Dodgers could offer Michael Busch 2B (17.2) Miguel Vargas 3B/1B (19.1) and Emmett Sheehan SP (29.2) total value 65.5.  That package would still allow the Dodgers to ask for get Garrett Mitchell OF 8.7 value.  

The Brewers get their starting 2B, 3B and a SP to replace Burnes with Sheehan and years of team control.  The Dodgers get a Cy Young SP candidate to go with a returning Buehler and Miller, Pepiot and Stone.  They get Williams to close pushing Evan Phillips to set up man.  They also get Mitchell who would step in to RF with Betts at 2B.  

If I'm the Brewers and I'm really willing to move Burnes and Williams I do it in a blockbuster together, not one going here and the other going there where I get two immediate infield starters and a solid, young SP whose already had a taste of the major leagues.  

The crazy thing is that the Dodgers, in addition to Will Smith at the major league level, don't even touch their 2 minor league catching phenoms in Cartaya and Rushing.  With Mookie moving to 2B I'll bet Doc Bauer would be interested in a package led by Max Kepler to acquire one of those guys if we traded Jeffers or Vasquez.  

[Doctor Gast]

34 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

JD-Twins, I know you have been advocating for the Twins to acquire Devin Williams and I agree he would be a tremendous and worthwhile acquisition.  But I just can't see the Twins getting him. 

I look at who the Brewers may be willing to trade and I just don't see the Twins being able to out bid a team like the Dodgers if the Brewers were willing to deal Williams or Corbin Burnes.  The Dodgers have the young talent to give up a LOT to get those guys and the deep pockets to ensure that they would forgo FA to remain with the Dodgers.

Williams and Burnes would amount to about 50-52 points of value on BBTV.  The Dodgers could offer Michael Busch 2B (17.2) Miguel Vargas 3B/1B (19.1) and Emmett Sheehan SP (29.2) total value 65.5.  That package would still allow the Dodgers to ask for get Garrett Mitchell OF 8.7 value.  

The Brewers get their starting 2B, 3B and a SP to replace Burnes with Sheehan and years of team control.  The Dodgers get a Cy Young SP candidate to go with a returning Buehler and Miller, Pepiot and Stone.  They get Williams to close pushing Evan Phillips to set up man.  They also get Mitchell who would step in to RF with Betts at 2B.  

If I'm the Brewers and I'm really willing to move Burnes and Williams I do it in a blockbuster together, not one going here and the other going there where I get two immediate infield starters and a solid, young SP whose already had a taste of the major leagues.  

The crazy thing is that the Dodgers, in addition to Will Smith at the major league level, don't even touch their 2 minor league catching phenoms in Cartaya and Rushing.  With Mookie moving to 2B I'll bet Doc Bauer would be interested in a package led by Max Kepler to acquire one of those guys if we traded Jeffers or Vasquez.  

So would I, TonyO. LAD have been interested also in Adames (SS) MIL for some time

[stringer bell]

Pagán combined availability and durability in his two years with the Twins. That does count for something. It seems to me that the Twins will need to juggle their front end of the BP a lot more than they did in 2023. I think the available pieces could combine to fill the role, but acquiring a durable veteran bullpen arm would be helpful. 

[Fatbat]

We have a lot of internal options to replace Pagans innings. Wouldn’t it make sense to acquire as much high leverage innings as possible? Maybe that guy is already in the organization? I bet one guy comes in from another team but no idea who it will be tho. 
How many of our guys are going to driveline this winter? If even one guy develops into 6-7th inning stopper by throwing a new pitch or better sequencing, we will have a better bullpen. It always seems to be some guy out of the blue that has a lights out season. 

[1985Fan]

Twins definitely need to add an arm to the bullpen. Since they’re in win-now mode, you’d think they would target a proven bp arm that can be relied on instead of developing their MiLB arms at the MLB level. Varland would be a candidate for multiple innings, but not on short or limited rest. Using Varland in the bp means they will bring in a SP for the MLB team and one for depth at St. Paul. The price for a proven RP is cheaper than a quality SP, so that would fit their restricted budget. Would allow Varland to plug into the rotation, IF they believe in Varland in the rotation. 
They need to address SP depth to backup Paddock. If he gives them 100 innings this year, it will be a big success for him and the team. They’ll need to fill in innings there as well. 
It will be interesting to see where the FO spends their resources. It will tell us how much confidence they have in their MiLB pitchers and Varland. If the Twins are to go deep in the postseason, they’ll need to have a great bullpen. This could be the year the FO has to spend on the BP. 

[Jeff K]

Pagan had a nice season for the Twins...and he did fill a critical role; but I think the Twins have plenty of options to fill the slot.

[Blyleven2011]

We need someone to eat low leverage  innings that pagan more or less thrived , durability he did give in 2 seasons  , but he mostly gave us heart attacks  ...

We have winder , Balazovic  , sands , headrick and who am I missing , Headrick is the most durable of the mentioned above , but that's what we have right now Going forward , yes I'm sure they  will add some BP arms on minor league contracts  ...

Pagans innings shouldn't be hard to fill ...

Like it or not , That's my story and I'm sticking to it ....

[DJL44]

If they want to run a team on a tight budget they can't buy relievers at retail. Instead they need to find some pitchers who have failed in the rotation (ERA around 5) for other teams and convert them to relief. Preference for players with MLB experience. Dakota Hudson was one of my top targets. Other possibilities:

Zach Davies, Jakob Junis, Vince Velasquez, Luke Weaver, Julio Teheran, Kolby Allard, Spencer Turnbull, Brad Keller, Yonny Chirinos, Chris Flexen, Jose Urena, Chad Kuhl, Jake Woodford

This is where the analytics department needs to earn their paychecks. Figure out which ones will be successful if you give them to Pete Maki.

[jmlease1]

I think they do need to replace these innings from Pagan, and his health and ability to pitch frequently was definitely an asset last season. I'm fairly confident in their ability to find middle innings internally from the 40-man without spending much on one of those fungible relievers that always seem to get 1-2 year deals at $6-8M and then disappoint because they simply aren't consistent enough in the later innings. I think the Twins are right not to allocate significant budget on free agent relievers and on relatively average pitchers.

It's nice to have the guy with the rubber arm who can make 70 appearances in the middle innings and do the job, but it's also a lot easier to churn through a few guys early in the season until you find one or two of them to handle the load. Alcala and Balazovic seem like reasonable choices to start the year to me.

[Brandon]

Winder and Alcala are the likeliest to replace Pagan.  It will be a combo as replacing a rubber armed reliever will come from multiple places.  I believe the Twins will sign a reliever or two to raise the floor in competition for the jobs and if we get another starter then Varland would slot up there with Jax I think.  

[DocBauer]

Even low leverage relievers get used in higher leverage spots at times. It's unavoidable. You hope for the best when it happens. And the Twins did a good job in keeping Pagan in that role and getting the most out of him.

But I don't see replacing his innings as all that difficult, just different.

First, I still want Varland in the rotation. He's got real potential there, and I'm not ready to make him pen option  at this point 

Second, I really, really want the Twins to find an arm via trade, or FA signing...probably coming off a down year and looking for a rebound...that can deepen the back of the pen by one more arm. But I also believe, and fully endorse, the signing of a couple veteran arms on milb, prove it deals. Stewart was acquired that way. So was Thielbar, and a few others. One of those arms might be part of the front end IP vacuum we're talking about.

Rocco and the FO really wanted to have a long man on staff last season. Makes some sense when you have games started by the likes of Archer, Shoemaker, etc. You can ride someone, and then send them to St Paul, replacing them with someone else. Except, not only did the Twins seldom need someone in that role in 2023, but they kept Sands on the roster for most all of the season and he pitched  a whopping 21 innings. And he had better numbers than Winder or Balazovic. So why was he just wasting away on the bench at that point?

That's poor management of your pen.

So Pagan and his rubber arm will be replaced by simply using the front of your pen better, and making it deeper. I like Winder and his new FB, and Sands with his great breaking ball, taking a step forward each for greater consistency now that they've been moved to the pen full time. Balazovic might do the same. There's still hope for the young, re-signed Henriquez to get it together. And yeah, and other DeLeon type of signing can help a lot.

I'm worried about having the best back 5-6 guys I can. That deepens my pen. And that deepens the front of the pen options pool to find the best couple I need.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

JD-Twins, I know you have been advocating for the Twins to acquire Devin Williams and I agree he would be a tremendous and worthwhile acquisition.  But I just can't see the Twins getting him. 

I look at who the Brewers may be willing to trade and I just don't see the Twins being able to out bid a team like the Dodgers if the Brewers were willing to deal Williams or Corbin Burnes.  The Dodgers have the young talent to give up a LOT to get those guys and the deep pockets to ensure that they would forgo FA to remain with the Dodgers.

Williams and Burnes would amount to about 50-52 points of value on BBTV.  The Dodgers could offer Michael Busch 2B (17.2) Miguel Vargas 3B/1B (19.1) and Emmett Sheehan SP (29.2) total value 65.5.  That package would still allow the Dodgers to ask for get Garrett Mitchell OF 8.7 value.  

The Brewers get their starting 2B, 3B and a SP to replace Burnes with Sheehan and years of team control.  The Dodgers get a Cy Young SP candidate to go with a returning Buehler and Miller, Pepiot and Stone.  They get Williams to close pushing Evan Phillips to set up man.  They also get Mitchell who would step in to RF with Betts at 2B.  

If I'm the Brewers and I'm really willing to move Burnes and Williams I do it in a blockbuster together, not one going here and the other going there where I get two immediate infield starters and a solid, young SP whose already had a taste of the major leagues.  

The crazy thing is that the Dodgers, in addition to Will Smith at the major league level, don't even touch their 2 minor league catching phenoms in Cartaya and Rushing.  With Mookie moving to 2B I'll bet Doc Bauer would be interested in a package led by Max Kepler to acquire one of those guys if we traded Jeffers or Vasquez.  

That’s a lot of information about the Dodgers!

My assumption was that they were good in RF after they re-signed J. Heyward?

I think Milwaukee or any club will trade whoever to whoever based on the deal offered. Blockbuster trades are media and fan driven terms that I don’t think organizations really consider. I don’t really care who we trade out of our minor league group, other than Lee or Jenkins. I’m not going to propose I know who the Brewers may want, specifically.

For 2 years of Williams, I’d consider keeping Polanco and trading Julien with a prospect (no longer Rodriguez) and a pitcher with some upside potential like Winder. Winder provides a Pen option that’s cheap for years and Julien is a very valuable piece to satisfy their 2B issues…….seems to me I saw they may have picked up a 2B and were moving Turang to SS…..this still leaves an offensive hole in their line-up though.

If the offer is attractive enough - and the Twins understand Milwaukee’s roster/organization -Twins can make an attractive offer……..may not fly but worthwhile to discuss.

[Blyleven2011]

5 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We have a lot of internal options to replace Pagans innings. Wouldn’t it make sense to acquire as much high leverage innings as possible? Maybe that guy is already in the organization? I bet one guy comes in from another team but no idea who it will be tho. 
How many of our guys are going to driveline this winter? If even one guy develops into 6-7th inning stopper by throwing a new pitch or better sequencing, we will have a better bullpen. It always seems to be some guy out of the blue that has a lights out season. 

Players that really should be at driveline  ...

I heard Ryan was going back ...

Haven't heard of any others ...

Some that should go are , larnach  to save his Twins career  ...

Gordon to work on getting back to where hw was in 2022 after an injury  wiped out his 2023  ...

Anyone else  I'm missing  , Julien could work on his defense  ,

Driveline  could help alot of these players with different instructors having different ideas never hurts ...

[tony&rodney]

Sorta ironic that there is a post on missing Pagan. For two years he blew up, but then managed to be good in the low pressure situations which gained him a beautiful new multi-year contract with Cincy. Good for Pagan. I'm glad he got his payday.

The Twins will search around and sign some guys for February and March. Perhaps a Brock Stewart clone arrives, but the team is fine with Alcala, Winder, Sands, and Sons.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

9 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

How about getting 2-3 innings per game from Jax, Stewart, Varland, etc., instead of rolling out 4-5 relievers every game?

Meanwhile leaving two swing men on the bench to rot.

[the_brute_squad]

I like the idea of a philosophy shift. 

Let's start with:

Ryan pitching more than two innings

Contact, fundamental baserunning, situational understanding. 

A manager that doesn't make eeyore seem like a hyperactive chipmunk in comparison. 

[PatPfund]

Well, it won't be Jax who tended to implode when overused. Varland (assuming they find a starter good enough to push him out of the rotation) would be a good high use option. At least it is nice to see a "how do we replace Emilio" piece instead of a "how fast can we ditch Pagan" screed. Glad we didn't cough up the big coin for him, though.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think it’s Louie Varland. 

I was just going to post this same idea. You beat me to it.

[DocBauer]

10 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

JD-Twins, I know you have been advocating for the Twins to acquire Devin Williams and I agree he would be a tremendous and worthwhile acquisition.  But I just can't see the Twins getting him. 

I look at who the Brewers may be willing to trade and I just don't see the Twins being able to out bid a team like the Dodgers if the Brewers were willing to deal Williams or Corbin Burnes.  The Dodgers have the young talent to give up a LOT to get those guys and the deep pockets to ensure that they would forgo FA to remain with the Dodgers.

Williams and Burnes would amount to about 50-52 points of value on BBTV.  The Dodgers could offer Michael Busch 2B (17.2) Miguel Vargas 3B/1B (19.1) and Emmett Sheehan SP (29.2) total value 65.5.  That package would still allow the Dodgers to ask for get Garrett Mitchell OF 8.7 value.  

The Brewers get their starting 2B, 3B and a SP to replace Burnes with Sheehan and years of team control.  The Dodgers get a Cy Young SP candidate to go with a returning Buehler and Miller, Pepiot and Stone.  They get Williams to close pushing Evan Phillips to set up man.  They also get Mitchell who would step in to RF with Betts at 2B.  

If I'm the Brewers and I'm really willing to move Burnes and Williams I do it in a blockbuster together, not one going here and the other going there where I get two immediate infield starters and a solid, young SP whose already had a taste of the major leagues.  

The crazy thing is that the Dodgers, in addition to Will Smith at the major league level, don't even touch their 2 minor league catching phenoms in Cartaya and Rushing.  With Mookie moving to 2B I'll bet Doc Bauer would be interested in a package led by Max Kepler to acquire one of those guys if we traded Jeffers or Vasquez.  

You called me out! LOL!

Just to be 100% transparent, as a huge fan of Kepler over the years, I was ready to move on from both he AND Gallo after a few months last season. The reasons for Gallo are obvious. The reasons for moving on from Max are more complicated. But after a career of unbelievably poor BABIP that defied description and talent, 2 1/2 years or so of disappointing/poor production, and with Wallner ready, and some belief that if Larnach just got a chance at healthy, and extended play, the Twins would benefit by the change. And to continue, I still think there is SOMETHING in Larnach that hasn't "come out" yet. (Part of the reason I still think he's potentially part of a trade package). Even without becoming the player we all hoped/thought he might be, I still think he could bat .225-.230 ish with 20 HR and 30 Dbls if given 450 AB. I like his arm, though it doesn't match Wallner's.  (Few do). But the Kepler we got for about 3 months in 2023 was very different, and I think the shift changes had little to do with it. I don't have the expert/practiced eye to break it down like others do, but it seemed as though he FINALLY figured out that if he just made good, hard contact with the ball good things would happen. No more trying too hard to flip the ball, aim the ball, stop trying to yank it out of the yard all the time, just trust his natural swing and power and hit it hard when he made contact. I don't believe 3 months in a SSS for such a talented veteran.

I've also been a huge proponent for Jeffers as I think too many disbelievers weren't actually watching the results of him behind the plate, or taking in to account the actual limited time he's actually had at the ML level as 2020 was short, he had an injury that deprived him of time, and he entered 2023 with less than 600 ML AB.

I fully appreciate your idea of Kepler to the Dodgers for one of those top 2 catching prospects. It's not a bad idea as to this day I think so many teams...fans for that matter...undervalue how important good catching is to a team! 

I WOULDN'T move Jeffers under any circumstances, were I running the Twins, as they have a quality backstop in the still only 26yo Jeffers who also brings good offense.  I AM interested in acquiring another high quality catcher to add to the system. But I would only be interested in doing so if Vazquez was moved in a deal. However, no matter how good of prospects they might be, Cartaya and Rushing are AA 22yo "potentials" at this point. And I follow the draft and the milb system very close. I think Camargo has a chance to be a solid, quality ML catcher with power and SOME hit ability. Winkel, Cardenas, Cossetti all offer some solid potential. Nate Baez, new to being a catcher only after splitting time at various positions in college until his last full season, has tremendous athletic ability for a backstop and is loaded with potential after a delayed start to his pro career. 

Am I convinced that the "new" Kepler is for real? Not completely. Would I move him in the right deal even with some current OF concerns? Yes. But I don't think I'd move him for a AA catcher with potential at this point. I'd rather he'd be moved as part of a deal for a SP. Or maybe moved for a Duran/Alcala type arm sitting at AA/AAA/having just debuted in 2023 arm for the pen.

Your trade option is very interesting. But I'm looking to move Kepler to make the 2024 Twins a better, deeper, more dangerous contender, and not for a future talent in this case. 

[LastOnePicked]

Relax. I suspect Pagan will be available again mid-season.