The Twins Need an Emilio Pagán Replacement, and Badly

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Driveline  could help alot of these players with different instructors having different ideas never hurts ...

Are you on commission?

[DocBauer]

14 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think it’s Louie Varland. 

Cory, honestly, why?

I get he has the stuff to potentially be excellent in the pen, and Rocco has publicly salivated over the idea, but why would we take a potential #3 quality SP...and they're ALL "mid rotation" prospects in general to start...and move him to the pen this soon?

He's a 2 time Twins milb pitcher of the year. His 5 game debut in 2022 was quite solid. He was actually throwing pretty well in his first 5 or 6 starts in 2023, including his BEST game against the Astros, before the wheels suddenly came off his next 3 starts. He's got guts, a good FB, a really good looking cutter/slider.  And he was still, more or less, a rookie last year with only 5 starts the year before. If he can harness any version of a change kind of pitch, he's still a legitimate ML SP.

I just think any option of putting him in the pen TOO SOON, potentially robs the 2024 team for rotation depth, but also future teams going forward. I mean, you can always move him to the pen later, right?

This is just MY OPINION. I believe the Twins are ONE ARM short of having a really good pen. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, and Funderburk gives you a great foundation. Now, imagine BP arm X added? A trade, a smart FA rebound signing, another Stewart milb veteran coming back, or even, dare we hope, someone like Alcala taking the next step forward. 

I'm NOT opposed to using your BEST ARMS to make the ML squad the best it can be. But if I'm the FO, I'm trying to find the best option for a SP add. And I'm also looking for the best, smartest, various options I can find to add another arm to deepen the back end of my pen FIRST, before I put Varland there.

IF I can find that ONE ARM, the whole complexion of my staff changes. I have Varland for rotation depth. And I can plug him in to the pen later. And NOW, I'm just looking at any other milb deal option, or my 40 man of Winder, Sands, Balazovic, Alcala, Headrick, Canterino later, to fill the last 2 spots in my pen. I don't want to have a starting staff that needs "innings eaters" because my starting staff is weak. But I also don't want a pen, with a solid rotation, to just keep someone on staff as a "just in case" like Sands was most of last year. That's just silly and poor execution of your pen.

[Cory Engelhardt]

32 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Cory, honestly, why?

I get he has the stuff to potentially be excellent in the pen, and Rocco has publicly salivated over the idea, but why would we take a potential #3 quality SP...and they're ALL "mid rotation" prospects in general to start...and move him to the pen this soon?

He's a 2 time Twins milb pitcher of the year. His 5 game debut in 2022 was quite solid. He was actually throwing pretty well in his first 5 or 6 starts in 2023, including his BEST game against the Astros, before the wheels suddenly came off his next 3 starts. He's got guts, a good FB, a really good looking cutter/slider.  And he was still, more or less, a rookie last year with only 5 starts the year before. If he can harness any version of a change kind of pitch, he's still a legitimate ML SP.

I just think any option of putting him in the pen TOO SOON, potentially robs the 2024 team for rotation depth, but also future teams going forward. I mean, you can always move him to the pen later, right?

This is just MY OPINION. I believe the Twins are ONE ARM short of having a really good pen. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Thielbar, and Funderburk gives you a great foundation. Now, imagine BP arm X added? A trade, a smart FA rebound signing, another Stewart milb veteran coming back, or even, dare we hope, someone like Alcala taking the next step forward. 

I'm NOT opposed to using your BEST ARMS to make the ML squad the best it can be. But if I'm the FO, I'm trying to find the best option for a SP add. And I'm also looking for the best, smartest, various options I can find to add another arm to deepen the back end of my pen FIRST, before I put Varland there.

IF I can find that ONE ARM, the whole complexion of my staff changes. I have Varland for rotation depth. And I can plug him in to the pen later. And NOW, I'm just looking at any other milb deal option, or my 40 man of Winder, Sands, Balazovic, Alcala, Headrick, Canterino later, to fill the last 2 spots in my pen. I don't want to have a starting staff that needs "innings eaters" because my starting staff is weak. But I also don't want a pen, with a solid rotation, to just keep someone on staff as a "just in case" like Sands was most of last year. That's just silly and poor execution of your pen.

Because I believe he is not a #3 starter, and I believe he is a weapon out of the pen :)

[nicksaviking]

The problem with trying to replace a Pagan, is that you rarely know what you’re going to get with a reliever year to year, as evidenced by Pagan himself.

There are probably less than a dozen relievers who are constantly good every year, so signing or trading for one based on last year’s results is just a roll of the dice.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Because I believe he is not a #3 starter, and I believe he is a weapon out of the pen :)

I disagree with your opinion as a SP. And I agree with your assessment he could be a weapon out if the pen. 😀

[ashbury]

Replacing a bullpen arm whose innings were managed in the second half as carefully for low leverage as Pagan's is not the place to start when thinking about next season's bullpen.  In fact it's about the last.  They need to bring in a couple of live arms, and then figure out the shifting tactics of using all 8 in the bullpen at any given time.  A year from now we might find that someone ended up with a usage profile like Pagan's 2023, or maybe not.

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

You called me out! LOL!

Just to be 100% transparent, as a huge fan of Kepler over the years, I was ready to move on from both he AND Gallo after a few months last season. The reasons for Gallo are obvious. The reasons for moving on from Max are more complicated. But after a career of unbelievably poor BABIP that defied description and talent, 2 1/2 years or so of disappointing/poor production, and with Wallner ready, and some belief that if Larnach just got a chance at healthy, and extended play, the Twins would benefit by the change. And to continue, I still think there is SOMETHING in Larnach that hasn't "come out" yet. (Part of the reason I still think he's potentially part of a trade package). Even without becoming the player we all hoped/thought he might be, I still think he could bat .225-.230 ish with 20 HR and 30 Dbls if given 450 AB. I like his arm, though it doesn't match Wallner's.  (Few do). But the Kepler we got for about 3 months in 2023 was very different, and I think the shift changes had little to do with it. I don't have the expert/practiced eye to break it down like others do, but it seemed as though he FINALLY figured out that if he just made good, hard contact with the ball good things would happen. No more trying too hard to flip the ball, aim the ball, stop trying to yank it out of the yard all the time, just trust his natural swing and power and hit it hard when he made contact. I don't believe 3 months in a SSS for such a talented veteran.

I've also been a huge proponent for Jeffers as I think too many disbelievers weren't actually watching the results of him behind the plate, or taking in to account the actual limited time he's actually had at the ML level as 2020 was short, he had an injury that deprived him of time, and he entered 2023 with less than 600 ML AB.

I fully appreciate your idea of Kepler to the Dodgers for one of those top 2 catching prospects. It's not a bad idea as to this day I think so many teams...fans for that matter...undervalue how important good catching is to a team! 

I WOULDN'T move Jeffers under any circumstances, were I running the Twins, as they have a quality backstop in the still only 26yo Jeffers who also brings good offense.  I AM interested in acquiring another high quality catcher to add to the system. But I would only be interested in doing so if Vazquez was moved in a deal. However, no matter how good of prospects they might be, Cartaya and Rushing are AA 22yo "potentials" at this point. And I follow the draft and the milb system very close. I think Camargo has a chance to be a solid, quality ML catcher with power and SOME hit ability. Winkel, Cardenas, Cossetti all offer some solid potential. Nate Baez, new to being a catcher only after splitting time at various positions in college until his last full season, has tremendous athletic ability for a backstop and is loaded with potential after a delayed start to his pro career. 

Am I convinced that the "new" Kepler is for real? Not completely. Would I move him in the right deal even with some current OF concerns? Yes. But I don't think I'd move him for a AA catcher with potential at this point. I'd rather he'd be moved as part of a deal for a SP. Or maybe moved for a Duran/Alcala type arm sitting at AA/AAA/having just debuted in 2023 arm for the pen.

Your trade option is very interesting. But I'm looking to move Kepler to make the 2024 Twins a better, deeper, more dangerous contender, and not for a future talent in this case. 

We have lots of infield depth - however, in the Show we have a leaking Buxton - Wallner - Castro & 40 man guys in Larnach & a couple converted infielders in Gordon - Martin………..Kepler remaining with the club sure seems to help with depth at this point. After May, and a firm feel for Gordon & Larnach & Martin’s offense for ‘24, a much better feel for Buxton’s health, then considering moving Max could make some sense toward the deadline.

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The problem with trying to replace a Pagan, is that you rarely know what you’re going to get with a reliever year to year, as evidenced by Pagan himself.

There are probably less than a dozen relievers who are constantly good every year, so signing or trading for one based on last year’s results is just a roll of the dice.

Trading for a healthy Devin Williams for 2 years of control  - an 8th or 9th inning guy, 2-time All-Star, $6.25M in ‘24…….our Pen would be elite & Varland go be #5 or # 6 in rotation for solid depth. Can’t imagine a better use of a Top prospect (Rodriguez) plus Polanco (to flip for prospects) - Sands.

Certainly, one of the dozen!

[arby58]

On 12/9/2023 at 6:45 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think it’s Louie Varland. 

He's young enough and his stuff too good to relegate to that role. He should start or be a high leverage relief pitcher. The fact that the Twins may have enough of the high leverage arms already suggests he stays in the rotation.

[arby58]

23 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Because I believe he is not a #3 starter, and I believe he is a weapon out of the pen :)

The discussion isn't about 'a  weapon out of the pen' but an innings eater in low/medium leverage situations.  Unless you think Duran/Jax/Stewart isn't enough for right-handed leverage situations, then, IMHO you're not getting enough out of Varland in the Pagan role.

[Cory Engelhardt]

35 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The discussion isn't about 'a  weapon out of the pen' but an innings eater in low/medium leverage situations.  Unless you think Duran/Jax/Stewart isn't enough for right-handed leverage situations, then, IMHO you're not getting enough out of Varland in the Pagan role.

I do think Varland can be higher leverage than Pagan was in that role in 2023. I’m very excited for his role in 2024 and what that looks like. He will be electric out of the bullpen. That’s very exciting

[KBJ1]

No thanks to any of Headrick, Winder, Sands even being on the roster.

Balazovik, Canterino, Alcala are NOT the answer either.

We need a SP, a LF & bullpen help.

Varland & Funderburk look to be our best bets. If we don't trade for a #2 SP, then Varland starts & we need a guy like D. Williams badly.

Sign Gurriel to fill the gaping hole in LF and trust Martin to be the leadoff sparkplug in CF

While Castro is a valuable utility player, we need Farmer's leadership and ability to play 3B & SS in case of any significant injury time at those positions. Not something  we should rely on for Castro to do.

Kepler & Polanco are redundant and should be traded as well as Gordon. Then we can afford Gurriel - the 5 tool guy we have be lacking in LF.

 

 

[arby58]

5 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Sign Gurriel to fill the gaping hole in LF and trust Martin to be the leadoff sparkplug in CF

Kepler & Polanco are redundant and should be traded as well as Gordon. Then we can afford Gurriel - the 5 tool guy we have be lacking in LF.

Wallner is perfectly capable of playing LF (or Larnach, if he can hit enough). I see them trading Polanco (who has more trade value and is less necessary at 2B) and keeping Kepler (who still plays decent RF and was arguably their best hitter second half of last year). If they're going to invest $, my guess is it is a trade for a SP with a pretty big salary for 2024.

[nicksaviking]

18 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Trading for a healthy Devin Williams for 2 years of control  - an 8th or 9th inning guy, 2-time All-Star, $6.25M in ‘24…….our Pen would be elite & Varland go be #5 or # 6 in rotation for solid depth. Can’t imagine a better use of a Top prospect (Rodriguez) plus Polanco (to flip for prospects) - Sands.

Certainly, one of the dozen!

But why wouldn’t you use that prospect equity to get a top starter instead?

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

No thanks to any of Headrick, Winder, Sands even being on the roster.

Balazovik, Canterino, Alcala are NOT the answer either.

We need a SP, a LF & bullpen help.

Varland & Funderburk look to be our best bets. If we don't trade for a #2 SP, then Varland starts & we need a guy like D. Williams badly.

Sign Gurriel to fill the gaping hole in LF and trust Martin to be the leadoff sparkplug in CF

While Castro is a valuable utility player, we need Farmer's leadership and ability to play 3B & SS in case of any significant injury time at those positions. Not something  we should rely on for Castro to do.

Kepler & Polanco are redundant and should be traded as well as Gordon. Then we can afford Gurriel - the 5 tool guy we have be lacking in LF.

 

 

All of those pitchers will throw innings in the majors this year. Pitching staffs, even good ones, routinely go through a LOT of guys. Last year the Twins had a relatively healthy pitching season (generally) and they still had 29 different pitchers throw at least 1 inning for them. I'd imagine that number will be similar in 2024.

[TopGunn#22]

It will be interesting to see how the Twins FO approaches the teams needs this off season because there isn't just a one-solution, straight forward approach.  

I think Varland would be ELECTRIC in the pen and become the 8th inning guy/occasional closer and push Jax back to a 7th inning role with Funderburk and Stewart.  That said, Varland's ceiling is a solid #3 SP.  Devin Williams is possibly the top closer in baseball.  While he would be a great addition, with 2 years of control, he's redundant when you already have Duran.  Julien straight up would get him, but I just don't see that happening.

So if the Twins don't go for a Williams type trade to solidify the back end of the pen, thus pushing everyone down a peg and strengthening the front end as well as the back, the next strategy is to acquire a SP.  They could do that via trade or with a FA signing.

The most cost effective FA signings with the ability to be a #2 or #3 that I've expressed interest in are Lucas Giolito and Trevor Bauer.  Giolito's baggage is a horrible end of last season.  Bauer's baggage needs no further explanation.  Both would be guys capable of throwing 150 innings or more.  In Golito's case probably 200.  But what is a reasonable cost for these guys with Ohtani's recent signing and Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery and others still on the market? 

Assume for a moment that we sign Bauer or Giolito.  The rotation becomes:  Lopez, Bauer/Giolito, Ryan, Ober and Paddack.  Varland is either your #6 SP or your 8th inning man in the pen.  The depth you have is all unproven minor leaguers and Paddack reaching 100 innings pitched is considered his high end.  You still need another SP even if Varland is the #6.  Do you deal Max Kepler for Edward Cabrera?  Do you make a bigger deal to bring in Miller or Woo from Seattle?  Max Meyer instead of Cabrera from Miami?   

When you analyze where the Twins are for their rotation you can easily see that losing Gray and Maeda means they need at least TWO SP options through trades and/or FA.  As much as I would love to see Varland blowing hitters away at the back end of our pen, I can see we need to keep him a SP at this time.  The secret weapon lurking in the Twins future bullpen is Matt Canterino.  I've read where they still consider him a SP.  I just don't see it.  One of Canterino or Varland needs to be groomed to be a back end bullpen guy.  If I have to choose, I'm making that guy Canterino and I'm seeing what I've got from Varland as a SP in 2024.  

If Bauer or Giolito are signed as a FA I imagine a 3-year deal would be acceptable to both the Twins and the pitcher.  What I would love to see the Twins do is sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2-3 year deal where they pay him $10 million for 2024 just to rehab and have him ready to step into that top of the rotation spot in 2025 & 2026.  BUT...it's not my money.  I can spend the Pohlad's money far too easily.  But I think it would be a great strategy for 2025.  

The other possibility would be to sign Mahle for a very cost effective deal and see if he could be available and healthy for the 2nd half of 2024.  I only do this if I'm fairly certain Mahle can pitch effectively for July, August and September.  

The Twins have trade chips in Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and possibly Vasquez (if they think Camargo is ready and they can get VALUE for Vasquez).  Certainly some, and maybe ALL of these guys will be traded.  There are MANY different ways the Twins FO could go to address their off season needs.  Which ones will they choose?  

[arby58]

14 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I do think Varland can be higher leverage than Pagan was in that role in 2023. I’m very excited for his role in 2024 and what that looks like. He will be electric out of the bullpen. That’s very exciting

If that's the case, who is the number 5 starter? So far, I'm not excited about getting the Twins successfully through 5 or 6 innings every fifth day. When you already have 3 decent high leverage right handers in the BP, it feels like the starting rotation is a bigger need.

[Cory Engelhardt]

35 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If that's the case, who is the number 5 starter? So far, I'm not excited about getting the Twins successfully through 5 or 6 innings every fifth day. When you already have 3 decent high leverage right handers in the BP, it feels like the starting rotation is a bigger need.

A good starting pitcher that they acquire this offseason.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

A good starting pitcher that they acquire this offseason.

OK, IF that happens I will go along with your suggestion (except they will likely need at least 7 SPs for the season, so I'm talking myself out of it).

[Cory Engelhardt]

And I think they will get to 7 by opening day. I fully expect a good trade for a starter, and I expect 1-2 minor league signings that would start in the rotation in St. Paul. Along with Festa and Woods Richardson and others who will probably make appearances over the course of the year. But yeah...

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and who they trade for (who they trade for, I'm hoping, could be a step above Ryan/Ober.)

Then

St. Paul will have Festa, Winder, Woods Richardson and I'd imagine at least 2 other additions. Incentive laden minor league contracts. Off the top of my head, think of it like Eric Lauer (formerly of the Brewers and Padres) and Brad Keller (formerly of the Royals.) But maybe they instead trade for a guy to have at AAA too?

I fully expect arms to be added this offseason, and St. Paul to have a lot of depth that is of mlb quality. 

 

Does that help?

[Blyleven2011]

On 12/9/2023 at 9:23 PM, DJL44 said:

Are you on commission?

Hey , it's available  to players needing an extra voice that might boost there career ,, 

Why does a player fail with one franchise  and then succeeds with another franchise  ...

Because  the other team may have seen a small tweak or correction the other team had not seen ..

To much information  can hurt a player trying to right the ship ,, 

It's the right information  that counts to right the ship ...

Driveline is a professional  company to help athletes , you are going to have a difficult time just listening to voices , 

you need to ask questions and something just might pop... 

For example  , Doctor is working a 16 hours shift at the hospital  , he comes in and looks at chart , checks the patient vitals and frowns , because of the long day he's tired and brain isn't sharp 

patient or most like a family member ask a few Questions or two or three and a light bulb goes off and alerts the doctor of a possible  method to help his patient get better ...

Even a stupid question  isn't a dumb question  if you learned from it ...