Letting Free-Agent Pitchers Walk Was All Part of the Twins' Plan

[Sherry Cerny]

The Minnesota Twins had some of the best pitching in MLB this past season. The pitching core carried the team throughout the season, and managed to keep the team around .500 even when the bats weren’t showing up. Now, they need a new core.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

This past week, the club lost two of its most valuable assets on the pitching staff, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Both pitchers had impressive seasons, considering Maeda was returning after an 18-month recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The club has suffered so long without good pitching, so why would the front office allow such difficult departures? Because it was a part of the plan all along.

There have been articles and rumors about the Twins wanting to cut a large chunk of their payroll, and even with keeping Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, the Twin's front office right now has an $88-million dollar payroll, a far cry from the 2023 $154-million Opening Day figure.

The front office was well aware that three things would happen: They were going to lose Gray and Maeda, they would need more pitching, and they would need to trade some pieces to obtain new arms. Enter the club options of Polanco and Kepler.

The Twins first picked up the options for Polanco ($10 million) and Kepler ($10.5 million), two of the Twins' cornerstone players and a fan-favorite duo. Kepler and Polanco have been a part of the Twins organization for 14 seasons, both signing as international free agents from Germany and the Dominican Republic, respectively. They were roommates in spring training for the 2010 season, forming what has proved to be an unbreakable bond. Naturally, when their options were picked up, fans were relieved and excited, but that’s not the end of the story. 

Polanco and Kepler are huge trade pieces for the Twins. Both players had their ups and downs in 2023. There are reasons why each is an imperfect fit for the 2024 team, but they each have considerable trade value.

Kepler played the entire season, starting slowly in the first half, then finding his stride after the All-Star break. He had his best season since 2019, with 24 homers and a .260/.332/.484 line. Kepler hit in the second half of the season like he knew his job was in jeopardy and he’s still one of the best defensive right fielders in the league, but is it enough?

Unlike the potential in the infield, the Twins don’t have much immediate help coming in the way of outfielders. With Trevor Larnach being the other option for right field, trading away Kepler would be difficult to justify. The best option would be to bring in someone who would become a full-time outfielder for years to come and be ready to release Kepler after the 2024 season.   

The infield has some of the best players, and while Polanco is a fantastic, versatile player and a switch-hitter, the club has a lot of young talent that stepped up for the consistently injured veterans--and there is still more at Triple-A St. Paul. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both of whom have been improving and showing why they should get their shot in 2024, are knocking on the door.

Polanco only played 80 games in the 2023 season due to a long and strenuous battle with injury, but when he was in the game, he produced at the plate and was able to cover second base and the hot corner. Polanco has another club option for 2025, worth $12.5 million with a $750,000 buyout. So, what’s out there that would allow the Twins to get value for Polanco and not to miss Kepler after his deal is up? 

Only a few pieces are needed to boost the Twins to where they are looking to be, and they don’t have to go far to find that talent. The Brewers have a lot of talent in their farm system, and some that have seen MLB time and who helped them reach the postseason in 2023. A small-market team with a surfeit of both relief pitchers and outfielders, they make perfect suitors. Based on the Twins’ need to replace so many high-quality innings, someone like Bryse Wilson, a rubber-armed long reliever, would be an excellent acquisition. 

Wilson, a righty who will turn 26 years old this month, has been in the league since 2018, having been drafted in 2016 by the Braves. He spent his formative years in Atlanta before being traded to Pittsburgh, who flipped him to Milwaukee last winter for a minimal return. Last season, Wilson pitched 76 2/3 innings, with six wins and no losses. One of his best games was a 10-6 win over the Padres late in August, in which he worked four scoreless innings of emergency long relief and struck out four, allowing only three baserunners. Wilson ended his season with some of the best numbers of his career: a 2.58 ERA, a1.10 WHIP, a 4.17 FIP. He’ll make around $1.5 million in his first trip through arbitration in 2024, but he’s a decent bargain at that price.

Wilson needn’t be the centerpiece of a trade, though. Joey Wiemer, a loose cannon at the plate and in the outfield, still has a lot of potential and could be a huge acquisition. Weimer is a really strong hitter, but he struggled a lot throughout the season. Looking at his numbers, his best month at the plate was in June (.233/.337/.512) and that gives a small glimpse into what kind of player he is. Even with the poor numbers in July and August, Wiemer crushed it against lefties (.267/.298/.517) through the whole season, which is a huge asset to the lineup. He also has outstanding defensive metrics, with five total Defensive Runs Saved in 1,026 innings as a rookie, showing that he has room to grow offensively and defensively with plenty of years left to play.  

The Brewers’ surplus of young outfielders may be the blessing the Twins seek. With Kepler being a free agent next year, being 31 years old, and the unknown of Buxton, contributing to the overall inconsistency of the outfield, a player like Weimer could solve many problems for the team. Over at Brewer Fanatic, writer Ryan Pollak even made the case Thursday afternoon that Wiemer will become trade bait.

One pipe dream would be to acquire Corbin Burnes in a trade for Polanco. There is still uncertainty as to whether the Brewers are looking to trade Burnes, but based on the information out there, it would take at least $250 million for the Brewers to retain him in free agency after 2024. He’ll make in excess of $15 million via arbitration in 2024, an onerous amount for the Brewers at their expected payroll level The Twins could “rent” him for a year, but the Brewers know what he’s worth, and the package for Burnes would likely include a lot more than Polanco, such as the Twins’ 2024 competitive-balance draft pick or prospects. The front office has been known to shock the fan base in the offseason, so they could shock us again, but it’s more than likely that the Twins would rather hold onto the prospects and trade for controllable assets that would provide long-term solutions, like Wilson and Wiemer. 

With so many things up in the air, it’s really hard to say which way the Twins front office will go, but one thing for sure is to use Polanco and/or Kepler as trade pieces at some point to get the pitching that they need. It’s all part of the plan.

View full article

[Karbo]

I agree that they planned on losing Gray and probably Maeda, though I think they dropped the ball on Maeda. what he got from Detroit will be a bargain unless he crashes and burns. I don't think they get Burnes, but it would be great if they could get him and keep him. I'm not so sure trading away one of the best trade chips for RP is the way to go here. Rather use that for a starter.

[CRF]

Polanco and Kepler have been possible trade pieces for 2-3 years. Whether or not Falvey actually does something with either of them this off season, remains to be seen. 

[Brett]

Nice to see a post that puts the front office in a positive light. They have surprised us with some of their trades, and it’s very likely something is cooking that we don’t see coming.

[thelanges5]

Paddack is the Maeda replacement. Gray replacement is the bigger question mark??????

[rv78]

Nice article summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and discussing here at TD. You suggest that everything that has happened is all part of a plan. It's also been said elsewhere that the FO thinks they are the smartest guys in the room. MY biggest question is, if that is the case and knowing that you are going to lose 2 of the better players that lead to your teams success, why would you just let them walk away? Was there any attempt to extend them during the season? Even if it would have been for just the 2024 season wouldn't that have been a better plan? You also say that picking up the options on Polanco and Kepler were done so they would have 2 trade pieces to possibly get the replacement pitchers they need. Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. Polanco is the easiest player to replace in the field with Julien. Kepler can be replaced with a number of less expensive players like, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin?, Gordon?. They may not be of the quality you desire or not without health concerns but that hasn't stopped this FO before. Buxton, Mahle, Paddack, Pineda, and so on.... Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan.

[old nurse]

Maeda has been in the big leagues 8 years one full season of good pitching, 2 half seasons. It should not be shocking they let him walk.  Sonny Gray probably would have been resigned had they not signed Buxton nor Correa. To contracts that are concerning for the amount of money spent and the return.. Kepler is a good player but not a building block for a team.  In a trade he is insurance that a team got something for their pitcher along with a high ceiling prospect that may never reach that ceiling.  Polanco’s injury history decreases his value. Like Kepler, he would need the high ceiling prospect to make a trade. Neither player would have value to a rebuilding team but to a contender there could be value in that they temporarily plug a hole

[PatG]

About Gray, as well as he pitched, the Twins lost about as many games as they won with him on the mound.

Is it possible to replace Gray and Maeda with D Keuchel, Mahle, Dobson?? Urias from Dodgers?

 

[WLFINN]

16 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Nice article summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and discussing here at TD. You suggest that everything that has happened is all part of a plan. It's also been said elsewhere that the FO thinks they are the smartest guys in the room. MY biggest question is, if that is the case and knowing that you are going to lose 2 of the better players that lead to your teams success, why would you just let them walk away? Was there any attempt to extend them during the season? Even if it would have been for just the 2024 season wouldn't that have been a better plan? You also say that picking up the options on Polanco and Kepler were done so they would have 2 trade pieces to possibly get the replacement pitchers they need. Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. Polanco is the easiest player to replace in the field with Julien. Kepler can be replaced with a number of less expensive players like, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin?, Gordon?. They may not be of the quality you desire or not without health concerns but that hasn't stopped this FO before. Buxton, Mahle, Paddack, Pineda, and so on.... Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan.

If the players you are targeting are signed to contracts with other teams , the only way to acquire them is trade. Therefore cash in hand does you no good, you need the players.

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. 

No, it's never a good idea to give away surplus value. If they want to give away either contract they can put them on waivers at any time and they will at least get the waiver claim money.

[DJL44]

I think the Brewers are a good trade partner for several reasons. First, they seem to have what the Twins need to compete in 2024. Second, the Brewers are going to value players at about the same level as the Twins. Third, the Brewers should be targeting 2025 as the opening of another competitive window so they will be interested in the Twins upper level prospects.

I would love to see the Twins acquire Burnes. The Brewers are going to be hesitant to let him go because he will return a first round pick in 2025. The Twins have a competitive balance pick in 2024 they can trade in exchange for Burnes. That would align better with Milwaukee's plans for contention by bringing in talent earlier. It's a way the Twins can exchange draft picks in a trade.

I doubt the Brewers will be as interested in Polanco as another team. The Twins may be better off selling Polanco to someone else.

[Swimbo]

38 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Nice article summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and discussing here at TD. You suggest that everything that has happened is all part of a plan. It's also been said elsewhere that the FO thinks they are the smartest guys in the room. MY biggest question is, if that is the case and knowing that you are going to lose 2 of the better players that lead to your teams success, why would you just let them walk away? Was there any attempt to extend them during the season? Even if it would have been for just the 2024 season wouldn't that have been a better plan? You also say that picking up the options on Polanco and Kepler were done so they would have 2 trade pieces to possibly get the replacement pitchers they need. Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. Polanco is the easiest player to replace in the field with Julien. Kepler can be replaced with a number of less expensive players like, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin?, Gordon?. They may not be of the quality you desire or not without health concerns but that hasn't stopped this FO before. Buxton, Mahle, Paddack, Pineda, and so on.... Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan.

To expand on this, a free agent SP that is worth signing is going to be expensive. So expensive that you are definitely going to overpay.

By keeping Kepler and Polanco they at least have some positive trade value that can be used for something. 

Yes cash is king, but not when you have a Dollar Tree budget shopping in Macys

[Jocko87]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think the Brewers are a good trade partner for several reasons. First, they seem to have what the Twins need to compete in 2024. Second, the Brewers are going to value players at about the same level as the Twins. Third, the Brewers should be targeting 2025 as the opening of another competitive window so they will be interested in the Twins upper level prospects.

I would love to see the Twins acquire Burnes. The Brewers are going to be hesitant to let him go because he will return a first round pick in 2025. The Twins have a competitive balance pick in 2024 they can trade in exchange for Burnes. That would align better with Milwaukee's plans for contention by bringing in talent earlier. It's a way the Twins can exchange draft picks in a trade.

I doubt the Brewers will be as interested in Polanco as another team. The Twins may be better off selling Polanco to someone else.

Love the Brewers as a trade partner. One stop shop would likely be cheaper than three individual trades and their 3 pieces fit very nicely. I would think Burnes would cost similar to the Gray trade with only one year of control and I'd pay that in a second.

[TopGunn#22]

You pick up the options for Kepler and Polanco because they are a good "value" at about $10 million for what they provide.  You trade them to get something you need/value MORE than what they could possibly provide to you.

The youth movement went well last season.  I think the plan was to continue it this year.  I'm frustrated that the Twins seem to be on the verge of building a very competitive ballclub, but it is what it is.  The outfielder I prefer from Milwaukee is Garrett Mitchell.  He had some injury problems last year, but his offensive ceiling is higher.  The Brewers are overstocked with young OF prospects and potential 19-year old A.L. Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Chourio is signing an 8-year, $80 million dollar contract.  He played (and played well) last year, and reached AAA.  With that contract, he's breaking camp with the Brewers.

Milwaukee doesn't need Kepler because of all the OF depth they have.  They do need a 2B.  Polanco isn't enough to get Burnes.  He could probably get Mitchell in a straight up 1 for 1 deal.  Julien WOULD probably be enough to get Burnes unless a team like the Dodgers offered a couple of young pitchers that are major league ready.  If the Twins do in fact acquire Burnes, they absolutely have to be willing to extend him like they did Lopez.  But at 28 years old, if Burnes wants 10-years, $250 million, I don't think that's wise.  You'll be paying him at age 36, 37 and 38.  If you could get him at 5-years and $150 million I'd do it.  The problem is that someone else will probably be foolish enough to offer 10 years. 

Depending on who the Twins are willing to give up, I think Miami and Seattle are better options.  But the FO should be willing to talk to practically anybody and open to any trade that makes the team better in both the short and long term.  

 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Paddack is the Maeda replacement. Gray replacement is the bigger question mark??????

The Team will be even better if Paddack ends up more like Gray and we also pick up a front line starter that is around for 3-4 years. 

[Blyleven2011]

Nice enthusiastic article sherry , we have not had one of these articles for awhile ...

Crazy how Kepler is now a fan favorite  again after 2 1/2 years of everyone wanting to trade him , if we retain Kepler I sure hope he hits , always have loved his defense  ...

Polanco I'd like to keep even though we have a surplus  , if healthy I think he will put up his regular contributions to the line up as a switch hitter ...

The twins needs plenty and trades are justified for those needs ...

seattle and miami have pitching who have control  , Milwaukee  doesn't so not interested in burns  , Milwaukee does have a surplus of controllable outfielders that have promise  ...

We'll have to sit back and see what  their plan  really is  ...

It would be nice if they could move alittle faster on the plan and generate enthusiasm for Twins fest ...

Christmas present are  always nice ...

[RpR]

For 31 years the Twins were also ran or worse; last year they finally go to the post season and won.

The question is does the Front Office want to keep the paying fans happy and in the stands or are they willing to put out more crap-shoot meh teams and hope the attendance does not suffer too badly.

Letting top pitching go, it almost points to the latter.🤔

Bly.2011

Not every one wanted to dump Kepler, only some very vocal ones.🤔

[Fatbat]

The FO should make a play for Burnes but only if his agent and Ownership is on board to do a 3-4 yr extension with an option yr or 2 beyond that. I would imagine its gonna cost us a bit of young assets and maybe you include polo just to dump the 10.5M to help sign Burnes long term.  No way we give up Raya, CBP ‘24 and Polo for a one year rental.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Nice article summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and discussing here at TD. You suggest that everything that has happened is all part of a plan. It's also been said elsewhere that the FO thinks they are the smartest guys in the room. MY biggest question is, if that is the case and knowing that you are going to lose 2 of the better players that lead to your teams success, why would you just let them walk away? Was there any attempt to extend them during the season? Even if it would have been for just the 2024 season wouldn't that have been a better plan? You also say that picking up the options on Polanco and Kepler were done so they would have 2 trade pieces to possibly get the replacement pitchers they need. Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. Polanco is the easiest player to replace in the field with Julien. Kepler can be replaced with a number of less expensive players like, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin?, Gordon?. They may not be of the quality you desire or not without health concerns but that hasn't stopped this FO before. Buxton, Mahle, Paddack, Pineda, and so on.... Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan.

Are you suggesting that they should have offered Gray 4 years at $25M? Or kept the 3 years that St. Louis gave him, but offer a higher AAV?

Because it would have taken one or the other to outdo the St. Louis offer. And given the proximity of St. Louis to Gray's home, it might have even taken doing both. 

[tony&rodney]

Chris Paddack's season will be considered successful if he pitches 100 innings. Louie Varland will only be restricted by how often he can pitch 5-8 innings and hold the other team to 3 runs (pitch effectively).

The offense needs to step forward and score runs on a consistent basis all year in 2024 because we should not expect the pitching to carry the team to the same extent as in 2023.

I'm fine with the current roster but still see opportunities for trades. Milwaukee might be a decent trade partner. Burnes is the guy whose name is most often the lead and he would be a TOR guy. Another player, perhaps unobtainable, is Jeferson Quero. Maybe the Twins throw out a risky proposition of trading Joe Ryan, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Winder for Corbin Burnes and Jeferson Quero. I'm not sure either team likes this challenge idea though. 

It all comes down to how the Twins see their young MLB players and top prospects fitting together this year and going forward. Maybe a simple addition of Michael Wacha works but I believe he will get a pretty decent multi-year contract.

[rv78]

40 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The Team will be even better if Paddack ends up more like Gray and we also pick up a front line starter that is around for 3-4 years. 

Tell me, which season has Paddack been even remotely like Gray? I would say he'll be closer to a Maeda and Maeda's shortened 2020 season is not the real Maeda. 

[rv78]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

No, it's never a good idea to give away surplus value. If they want to give away either contract they can put them on waivers at any time and they will at least get the waiver claim money.

So you are saying they are worth more than their combined $20.5M. If that is the case then the prospect of trading them should be creating a whirlwind of offers that the FO can't refuse. I would venture to guess that most GM's on other clubs see an aging Polanco that is starting to break down and a hit and miss Kepler than is more often miss than hit. I would bet a buck that the Twins will have to add at least 1 if not 2 or more prospects to a Polanco and Kepler trade to get back a pitcher worth $20.5M. Most $20M pitchers have MORE surplus trade value than  hitters.

[rv78]

32 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Are you suggesting that they should have offered Gray 4 years at $25M? Or kept the 3 years that St. Louis gave him, but offer a higher AAV?

Because it would have taken one or the other to outdo the St. Louis offer. And given the proximity of St. Louis to Gray's home, it might have even taken doing both. 

No, I said, they should have tried extending him for 1 more season. Not 4 or 3 or even 2. Maybe they did and he didn't accept. Do you know if they did or not?

[thelanges5]

54 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The Team will be even better if Paddack ends up more like Gray and we also pick up a front line starter that is around for 3-4 years. 

Agree - Paddack has a higher ceiling than Maeda. 

[Fatbat]

12 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Tell me, which season has Paddack been even remotely like Gray? I would say he'll be closer to a Maeda and Maeda's shortened 2020 season is not the real Maeda. 

Considering that he is 6 years younger than gray and that gray was never like gray ‘24, along with Paddack having better raw stuff than ever post TJ, I’d say its a good bet that Paddack has a great chance at being a front line starter in the next 3 years. Hence my statement. I stand by it. 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, rv78 said:

No, I said, they should have tried extending him for 1 more season. Not 4 or 3 or even 2. Maybe they did and he didn't accept. Do you know if they did or not?

They offered him a one-year, $20.325 million deal. He turned it down.  It was in the news.

[Eris]

The plan was to develop a pitching pipeline.  Given the cost of acquiring pitching (both via trade and free agency) seems that the original plan is still the way to go. 
 

 

[rv78]

1 hour ago, Swimbo said:

To expand on this, a free agent SP that is worth signing is going to be expensive. So expensive that you are definitely going to overpay.

By keeping Kepler and Polanco they at least have some positive trade value that can be used for something. 

Yes cash is king, but not when you have a Dollar Tree budget shopping in Macys

Payroll without Kepler and Polanco on the books would be just under $100M. Pitchers like JMontgomery, Snell, ERodriguez, Stroman, Miley all have been projected to cost in the low $20's per year. Even if the Twins have a Dollar Tree budget they would still fit within what they have decided is their limit.

[Fatbat]

I am ok with Gray getting a QO and declining it because we got a draft pick back.  I would have done the same for Maeda because we would have had two better outcomes. 1.we got Maeda as a one yr rental/tradechip for 20.5M or 2. We get another draft pick before the 3rd rd in’24.  Both are better than nothing except $20.5M unspent.  Its most likely that Maeda would have turned down the QO anyway because he wanted a multi year deal so we basically threw a draft pick away.  

[Fatbat]

@tony&rodney I agree that Paddock has a higher ceiling than Maeda which is why they let him walk butI would have offered him the QO to get either the extra draft pic and extra signing $$$or the stability of less player turnover.  The FO chose the cheap option by letting him walk for nothing safe budget saving.