Letting Free-Agent Pitchers Walk Was All Part of the Twins' Plan

Polanco and Kepler have been possible trade pieces for 2-3 years. Whether or not Falvey actually does something with either of them this off season, remains to be seen. 

Paddack is the Maeda replacement. Gray replacement is the bigger question mark??????

Nice article summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and discussing here at TD. You suggest that everything that has happened is all part of a plan. It's also been said elsewhere that the FO thinks they are the smartest guys in the room. MY biggest question is, if that is the case and knowing that you are going to lose 2 of the better players that lead to your teams success, why would you just let them walk away? Was there any attempt to extend them during the season? Even if it would have been for just the 2024 season wouldn't that have been a better plan? You also say that picking up the options on Polanco and Kepler were done so they would have 2 trade pieces to possibly get the replacement pitchers they need. Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. Polanco is the easiest player to replace in the field with Julien. Kepler can be replaced with a number of less expensive players like, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin?, Gordon?. They may not be of the quality you desire or not without health concerns but that hasn't stopped this FO before. Buxton, Mahle, Paddack, Pineda, and so on.... Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan.

Maeda has been in the big leagues 8 years one full season of good pitching, 2 half seasons. It should not be shocking they let him walk.  Sonny Gray probably would have been resigned had they not signed Buxton nor Correa. To contracts that are concerning for the amount of money spent and the return.. Kepler is a good player but not a building block for a team.  In a trade he is insurance that a team got something for their pitcher along with a high ceiling prospect that may never reach that ceiling.  Polanco’s injury history decreases his value. Like Kepler, he would need the high ceiling prospect to make a trade. Neither player would have value to a rebuilding team but to a contender there could be value in that they temporarily plug a hole

About Gray, as well as he pitched, the Twins lost about as many games as they won with him on the mound.

Is it possible to replace Gray and Maeda with D Keuchel, Mahle, Dobson?? Urias from Dodgers?

16 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Nice article summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and discussing here at TD. You suggest that everything that has happened is all part of a plan. It's also been said elsewhere that the FO thinks they are the smartest guys in the room. MY biggest question is, if that is the case and knowing that you are going to lose 2 of the better players that lead to your teams success, why would you just let them walk away? Was there any attempt to extend them during the season? Even if it would have been for just the 2024 season wouldn't that have been a better plan? You also say that picking up the options on Polanco and Kepler were done so they would have 2 trade pieces to possibly get the replacement pitchers they need. Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. Polanco is the easiest player to replace in the field with Julien. Kepler can be replaced with a number of less expensive players like, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin?, Gordon?. They may not be of the quality you desire or not without health concerns but that hasn't stopped this FO before. Buxton, Mahle, Paddack, Pineda, and so on.... Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan.

If the players you are targeting are signed to contracts with other teams , the only way to acquire them is trade. Therefore cash in hand does you no good, you need the players.

30 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. 

No, it's never a good idea to give away surplus value. If they want to give away either contract they can put them on waivers at any time and they will at least get the waiver claim money.

I think the Brewers are a good trade partner for several reasons. First, they seem to have what the Twins need to compete in 2024. Second, the Brewers are going to value players at about the same level as the Twins. Third, the Brewers should be targeting 2025 as the opening of another competitive window so they will be interested in the Twins upper level prospects.

I would love to see the Twins acquire Burnes. The Brewers are going to be hesitant to let him go because he will return a first round pick in 2025. The Twins have a competitive balance pick in 2024 they can trade in exchange for Burnes. That would align better with Milwaukee's plans for contention by bringing in talent earlier. It's a way the Twins can exchange draft picks in a trade.

I doubt the Brewers will be as interested in Polanco as another team. The Twins may be better off selling Polanco to someone else.

38 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Nice article summing up what a lot of us have been thinking and discussing here at TD. You suggest that everything that has happened is all part of a plan. It's also been said elsewhere that the FO thinks they are the smartest guys in the room. MY biggest question is, if that is the case and knowing that you are going to lose 2 of the better players that lead to your teams success, why would you just let them walk away? Was there any attempt to extend them during the season? Even if it would have been for just the 2024 season wouldn't that have been a better plan? You also say that picking up the options on Polanco and Kepler were done so they would have 2 trade pieces to possibly get the replacement pitchers they need. Wouldn't a better plan have been to NOT pick up the options on Polanco and Kepler, save that $20.5M and use it to get a pitcher in Free Agency? At least then YOU are in the drivers seat and YOU are not at the mercy of dealing with another GM asking for more than you are willing to trade to get that pitcher. Polanco is the easiest player to replace in the field with Julien. Kepler can be replaced with a number of less expensive players like, Castro, Larnach, Kirilloff, Martin?, Gordon?. They may not be of the quality you desire or not without health concerns but that hasn't stopped this FO before. Buxton, Mahle, Paddack, Pineda, and so on.... Don't get me wrong, I have no problem trading players from an area of depth for areas of need but sometimes and this time in particular the FO needed to change their way of thinking and doing business. Picking up options on 2 players that you have replacements for and letting 2 pitchers walk away that you don't have replacements for maybe was the plan but that is not a good plan. Contracts to players like Buxton, Correa and Gallo are huge over-pays and 2023 proved that. The more I see what this FO does the more I question their plan.

To expand on this, a free agent SP that is worth signing is going to be expensive. So expensive that you are definitely going to overpay.

By keeping Kepler and Polanco they at least have some positive trade value that can be used for something. 

Yes cash is king, but not when you have a Dollar Tree budget shopping in Macys

You pick up the options for Kepler and Polanco because they are a good "value" at about $10 million for what they provide.  You trade them to get something you need/value MORE than what they could possibly provide to you.

The youth movement went well last season.  I think the plan was to continue it this year.  I'm frustrated that the Twins seem to be on the verge of building a very competitive ballclub, but it is what it is.  The outfielder I prefer from Milwaukee is Garrett Mitchell.  He had some injury problems last year, but his offensive ceiling is higher.  The Brewers are overstocked with young OF prospects and potential 19-year old A.L. Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Chourio is signing an 8-year, $80 million dollar contract.  He played (and played well) last year, and reached AAA.  With that contract, he's breaking camp with the Brewers.

Milwaukee doesn't need Kepler because of all the OF depth they have.  They do need a 2B.  Polanco isn't enough to get Burnes.  He could probably get Mitchell in a straight up 1 for 1 deal.  Julien WOULD probably be enough to get Burnes unless a team like the Dodgers offered a couple of young pitchers that are major league ready.  If the Twins do in fact acquire Burnes, they absolutely have to be willing to extend him like they did Lopez.  But at 28 years old, if Burnes wants 10-years, $250 million, I don't think that's wise.  You'll be paying him at age 36, 37 and 38.  If you could get him at 5-years and $150 million I'd do it.  The problem is that someone else will probably be foolish enough to offer 10 years. 

Depending on who the Twins are willing to give up, I think Miami and Seattle are better options.  But the FO should be willing to talk to practically anybody and open to any trade that makes the team better in both the short and long term.  

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Paddack is the Maeda replacement. Gray replacement is the bigger question mark??????

The Team will be even better if Paddack ends up more like Gray and we also pick up a front line starter that is around for 3-4 years. 

Nice enthusiastic article sherry , we have not had one of these articles for awhile ...

Crazy how Kepler is now a fan favorite  again after 2 1/2 years of everyone wanting to trade him , if we retain Kepler I sure hope he hits , always have loved his defense  ...

Polanco I'd like to keep even though we have a surplus  , if healthy I think he will put up his regular contributions to the line up as a switch hitter ...

The twins needs plenty and trades are justified for those needs ...

seattle and miami have pitching who have control  , Milwaukee  doesn't so not interested in burns  , Milwaukee does have a surplus of controllable outfielders that have promise  ...

We'll have to sit back and see what  their plan  really is  ...

It would be nice if they could move alittle faster on the plan and generate enthusiasm for Twins fest ...

Christmas present are  always nice ...

For 31 years the Twins were also ran or worse; last year they finally go to the post season and won.

The question is does the Front Office want to keep the paying fans happy and in the stands or are they willing to put out more crap-shoot meh teams and hope the attendance does not suffer too badly.

Letting top pitching go, it almost points to the latter.🤔

Bly.2011

Not every one wanted to dump Kepler, only some very vocal ones.🤔

The FO should make a play for Burnes but only if his agent and Ownership is on board to do a 3-4 yr extension with an option yr or 2 beyond that. I would imagine its gonna cost us a bit of young assets and maybe you include polo just to dump the 10.5M to help sign Burnes long term.  No way we give up Raya, CBP ‘24 and Polo for a one year rental.

Chris Paddack's season will be considered successful if he pitches 100 innings. Louie Varland will only be restricted by how often he can pitch 5-8 innings and hold the other team to 3 runs (pitch effectively).

The offense needs to step forward and score runs on a consistent basis all year in 2024 because we should not expect the pitching to carry the team to the same extent as in 2023.

I'm fine with the current roster but still see opportunities for trades. Milwaukee might be a decent trade partner. Burnes is the guy whose name is most often the lead and he would be a TOR guy. Another player, perhaps unobtainable, is Jeferson Quero. Maybe the Twins throw out a risky proposition of trading Joe Ryan, Jorge Polanco, and Josh Winder for Corbin Burnes and Jeferson Quero. I'm not sure either team likes this challenge idea though. 

It all comes down to how the Twins see their young MLB players and top prospects fitting together this year and going forward. Maybe a simple addition of Michael Wacha works but I believe he will get a pretty decent multi-year contract.

40 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The Team will be even better if Paddack ends up more like Gray and we also pick up a front line starter that is around for 3-4 years. 

Tell me, which season has Paddack been even remotely like Gray? I would say he'll be closer to a Maeda and Maeda's shortened 2020 season is not the real Maeda. 

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

No, it's never a good idea to give away surplus value. If they want to give away either contract they can put them on waivers at any time and they will at least get the waiver claim money.

So you are saying they are worth more than their combined $20.5M. If that is the case then the prospect of trading them should be creating a whirlwind of offers that the FO can't refuse. I would venture to guess that most GM's on other clubs see an aging Polanco that is starting to break down and a hit and miss Kepler than is more often miss than hit. I would bet a buck that the Twins will have to add at least 1 if not 2 or more prospects to a Polanco and Kepler trade to get back a pitcher worth $20.5M. Most $20M pitchers have MORE surplus trade value than  hitters.

32 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Are you suggesting that they should have offered Gray 4 years at $25M? Or kept the 3 years that St. Louis gave him, but offer a higher AAV?

Because it would have taken one or the other to outdo the St. Louis offer. And given the proximity of St. Louis to Gray's home, it might have even taken doing both. 

No, I said, they should have tried extending him for 1 more season. Not 4 or 3 or even 2. Maybe they did and he didn't accept. Do you know if they did or not?

54 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The Team will be even better if Paddack ends up more like Gray and we also pick up a front line starter that is around for 3-4 years. 

Agree - Paddack has a higher ceiling than Maeda. 

12 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Tell me, which season has Paddack been even remotely like Gray? I would say he'll be closer to a Maeda and Maeda's shortened 2020 season is not the real Maeda. 

Considering that he is 6 years younger than gray and that gray was never like gray ‘24, along with Paddack having better raw stuff than ever post TJ, I’d say its a good bet that Paddack has a great chance at being a front line starter in the next 3 years. Hence my statement. I stand by it. 

1 hour ago, Swimbo said:

To expand on this, a free agent SP that is worth signing is going to be expensive. So expensive that you are definitely going to overpay.

By keeping Kepler and Polanco they at least have some positive trade value that can be used for something. 

Yes cash is king, but not when you have a Dollar Tree budget shopping in Macys

Payroll without Kepler and Polanco on the books would be just under $100M. Pitchers like JMontgomery, Snell, ERodriguez, Stroman, Miley all have been projected to cost in the low $20's per year. Even if the Twins have a Dollar Tree budget they would still fit within what they have decided is their limit.

I am ok with Gray getting a QO and declining it because we got a draft pick back.  I would have done the same for Maeda because we would have had two better outcomes. 1.we got Maeda as a one yr rental/tradechip for 20.5M or 2. We get another draft pick before the 3rd rd in’24.  Both are better than nothing except $20.5M unspent.  Its most likely that Maeda would have turned down the QO anyway because he wanted a multi year deal so we basically threw a draft pick away.  

@tony&rodney I agree that Paddock has a higher ceiling than Maeda which is why they let him walk butI would have offered him the QO to get either the extra draft pic and extra signing $$$or the stability of less player turnover.  The FO chose the cheap option by letting him walk for nothing safe budget saving.