Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?

[Hunter McCall]

As Sonny Gray moves on to St. Louis, the Twins are left searching for ways to fill the void at the top of their starting rotation. Does it make sense to package one of their most coveted prospects for a controllable starter?

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins drafted Brooks Lee in 2022, the scouting report showed an incredible ability to put the bat on the baseball. With decent pop and an insanely low strikeout rate, the Cal Poly shortstop worked his way into being a borderline top-5 prospect in the draft. That's why fans were rightfully excited when the Twins were able to scoop him with the 8th pick. Lee immediately entered MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospect list, and currently sits as the 18th overall prospect in the entire league.

The hype around Lee is as high as it’s been, as fans get ready for him to make his way to the MLB roster. Already traveling through all minor-league levels and finishing 2023 with the St. Paul Saints, Lee appears close to making his MLB debut. Would it make sense to capitalize on Lee’s value and cash in on their current infield depth by trading Lee for an arm to replace Sonny Gray?

The Twins have a logjam of infielders either at the major-league level or close to making their debut. Currently either on the MLB roster or carrying a 2024 ETA, according to MLB.com, the Twins have Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Lee, Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, and Jose Salas (unlikely to debut, but meets these criteria).

As we saw in the 2023 offseason when the Twins traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez, they are not afraid to capitalize on their depth to fill an area of need. The area of need again this year is a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. So, what’s the case for moving Lee?

The first reason is that Lee is unlikely to play shortstop in MLB. The most likely path for Lee is at either third base or second base. The Twins currently have two young studs (in Lewis and Julien) holding down those spots for the foreseeable future. If Lee were to stick around, the Twins would likely find ways to make it work, but it would eventually force one of them to either move off their spot or DH regularly. You can never have too many quality bats, but it could get crowded quickly with the other names listed fighting for playing time.

Another reason to consider packaging Lee is that, of the players listed above, Lee holds the most value. He’s also relatively unproven. While Lewis and Julien have shown to be impactful bats at the highest level, Lee hasn't exactly dominated in the minors. He spent his last 38 games in Triple A and posted a .732 OPS. He has also yet to post an OPS above .850 with any team in his young professional career. Lee hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t lit the world on fire. He's shown himself to be a solid hitter, a potential everyday big-leaguer, but I’m not sure he possesses the star power that some think he does. Maybe the Twins should strike while the iron is hot and capitalize on his high prospect ranking to solidify their rotation.

I think Lee will be a very good baseball player at the highest level. However, when you mix his current value with the Twins’ need for a top-of-the-rotation starter, it makes sense to consider packaging him for a guy who can help the already-solid roster take the next step. Just to take one example, Astros southpaw Framber Valdez is becoming the subject of some trade speculation this week. When trading prospects, you risk watching them become stars on another team, but there’s also a risk in holding them and watching them not pan out while their value depreciates. Could the next Pablo López be just one Brooks Lee away?

What are your thoughts? Should the Twins consider packaging Brooks Lee for starting pitching help? Let me know. Go, Twins!

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[Doctor Wu]

If the Twins want to compete for the post-season in the next year or two, they absolutely need to add another quality starting pitcher. Brooks Lee is a great prospect, and I think he's about ready for the jump to MLB, but I don't see a clear  path for him with the Twins as things stand. I mean, which position will he play? He seems blocked by veterans at almost all key positions right now, so fitting him into the starting lineup will take some creativity and/or it will mean getting rid of someone else. So yes, I think the Twins should at least consider any offers for Brooks Lee. Hey, he could well become a Hall of Fame caliber player, and we could end up regretting that we moved him. but as we head into a new season I think we need pitching more than hitting, and he's one of our most valuable trade pieces. 

[SoDakTwinsFan]

Prospects are always an unknown commodity.  IF you have the chance to take a good prospect like Lee and flip him for a proven starting pitcher you pull that trigger.  Once upon a time Buxton was the #1 prospect, I wouldn't say he has lived up to the hype.  Lewis was a top 10 prospect and he can't stay healthy.  For all the "can't miss" prospects that live up to the hype, there are plenty that do not.  I've always been a believer in taking an unknown, which is what prospects are, and flipping them for proven players especially pitchers.

[Karbo]

I would think he is on the table. But it had better be another very good young pitcher with a few years of control. The Lopez trade was one of the best this FO has made. If they can pull off another similar trade, just about anyone should be on the table.

[Doctor Gast]

Lee is a keeper, with his bat & glove he's a future All-Star. There's very little doubt being so close to the MLB. You don't trade someone like that. There's no doubt that Julien bat is for real but his glove is less than desireable. Julien makes much more sense eventhough his value is less. yet he can land a Lopez type SP on his own which is perfect.

[wsnydes]

If the right deal comes along, sure, I'd do it.  I'd be VERY picky with what deal would involve him though.  Guys like that don't just come around.  I'd be more likely to deal Lewis and Julien than Lee.  I'd be pretty picky about who I deal Lewis for too though.

 

[Fatbat]

I see a clear path for Lee to be a starter in the next year. Farmer and Polo will likely be gone. Julien will likely be a DH heavy 2nd base platoon guy. Lee, Lewis and C4  slot in anywhere You want to put them in the IF. AK and hopefully Miranda round out the infield. It will arguably be the best in MLB for years to come. You think payroll is an issue now. How will you be paying all this guys when they get to arbitration and beyond.  There is plenty of other talent to package together to get another 1/2 ace like Pablo. 3 yrs from now, we may be WS champs and Miller will be knocking down the door to start at SS. C4 may very well have been traded for that ace.  In the mean time, don’t trade away your future allstars. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Who is the pitcher you trade Lee for? It had better be someone with more than 3 years team control who would immediately step ahead of pre-injury Joe Ryan of 2023. The list of guys is pretty short right?

I guess I’ve started to focus more on the guys who are good NOW, and would be a free agent sooner. 

[Blyleven2011]

A first round draft pick that makes contact and a switch hitter to boot ...

A valuable player  you hang onto  and find some other prospects to trade ...

Lee , Jenkins and Soto  stay and any of the rest of prospects can be trade bait ...

We need bats also to strengthen  the lineup with clutch hitting ( see Lewis for clutch hitting )  ...

I want exciting baseball  with hitters getting on base ...

Pitching was outstanding last year and yes we need a quality starter to fill Gray's  vacancy ... 

FO needs to be creative ,  let's just sit back , relax and see what happens  , if it doesn't happen  than we can blast them for not having a contending team ...

[MinnInPa]

how 'bout NO.. no consideration whatsoever.. Twins need a superstar..ALL Star caliber player  ...and this kid could be it. You dont trade this caliber of player....move along

[Hunter McCall]

48 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I would think he is on the table. But it had better be another very good young pitcher with a few years of control. The Lopez trade was one of the best this FO has made. If they can pull off another similar trade, just about anyone should be on the table.

The return would certainly have to be good to move him, I agree with you!

[Gatormandd]

Absolutely stupid for a small-market team like the Twins to make these kinds of trades.  If we had SPENCER STEER, CHRISTIAN ENCARNCION-STRAND, CHASE PETTY coming, for example, we'd have missed what, one playoff appearance and a hole in our rotation and lineup, especially RH bats?  The trade of Arraez for Lopez is MUCH more of the type of deals the FO needs to do, guys like Polanco and Kepler who I love are past peak, and a rental SP is a much more palatable price for me.  WOuld we have to gamble that Lee can handle the load (or maybe Miranda)? Yes, but at least we'd still have a future, unlike if we gut our system to please fans that only look to the next season, then blames the FO when the cupboards are bare in the minors.  The trend of all the "upcoming teams" (Baltimore, CIncy, etc) is to KEEP THE KIDS, and NOT SELL OUT for a single season (especially since we aren't talking about the Twins being a SP away from the WS).

[Trov]

I think people are overhyping Julien as a "stud".  I say this because he was unplayable against lefties.  He had an OPS of .447 against lefties.  Yes, he did very well against righties overall with OPS .898, but right now he looks to be a platoon guy not a everyday stud.  Lee has not shown the on base percentage Julien has shown, but the slugging is close to each other.  

Lee is a better lefty hitter than righty, but he still has been better against lefties than Julien has.  I am still high on Julien, but if he cannot get on base against lefties then he is not a stud.  Remember everyone thought Miranda was going to be a stud after his rookie year too, now he is outside looking in. 

I am always willing to move a guy for the right deal.  Not sure who would be available though.  I would not do it for a 1 or 2 year guy really, unless we know we can resign to a few more years.  Also, they would need to be 27 or younger right now to go after in my opinion. 

[TwinsDr2021]

 Currently either on the MLB roster or carrying a 2024 ETA, according to MLB.com, the Twins have Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Lee, Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, and Jose Salas (unlikely to debut, but meets these criteria).

 

Is this really a log jam? Correa and Polanco (if not traded) are starters. You need back up for AK and Lewis until they prove they can stay healthy (Julien and Farmer). Salas is 21 (will be) and hasn't played above high A and hasn't been very good.

Martin will be 25 when the season starts and has done little to nothing to force the Twins into opening a spot on the major league club.  Severino is also another older prospect that hasn't forced the Twins to say he needs a spot but is good depth. Castro is a utility player and shouldn't be counted as part of a log jam.

Which leaves the Twins Lee, the one guy that could actually force the Twins to make room for him (and I have been told will be better than Correa in the next year)

I am not saying you don't trade Lee, but like Engelhardt said above who are those guys?

 

 

[Hunter McCall]

42 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lee is a keeper, with his bat & glove he's a future All-Star. There's very little doubt being so close to the MLB. You don't trade someone like that. There's no doubt that Julien bat is for real but his glove is less than desireable. Julien makes much more sense eventhough his value is less. yet he can land a Lopez type SP on his own which is perfect.

I appreciate your insight. I believe that the Twins should hold on to Julien over Lee. There's still time for him show improvement, but Lee just hasn't performed at a level that shows to me he will be a star at the plate in the majors. He's been solid, but just for comparison, Julien had a career minor league OPS of .924. As I stated Brooks Lee has yet to top .850 with any team he's been a part of. Julien also has an .840 OPS in the majors. My point being why dump the young guy who has proven he can hit at every level in favor of the guy who you drafted high so you hope he can hit?

[Hunter McCall]

33 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

If the right deal comes along, sure, I'd do it.  I'd be VERY picky with what deal would involve him though.  Guys like that don't just come around.  I'd be more likely to deal Lewis and Julien than Lee.  I'd be pretty picky about who I deal Lewis for too though.

 

Why deal Lewis and Julien over Lee?

[terrydactyls]

46 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lee is a keeper, with his bat & glove he's a future All-Star. There's very little doubt being so close to the MLB. You don't trade someone like that. There's no doubt that Julien bat is for real but his glove is less than desireable. Julien makes much more sense eventhough his value is less. yet he can land a Lopez type SP on his own which is perfect.

You're joking, right?  If Julien is such a detriment on the field, how is landing a Lopez type pitcher?  And don't compare Julien to Arraez.  That comparison is laughable.

[Brad.dahlen]

This question would seriously hinge on the organization's current assessment of Julien's progress defensively at 2B.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I am conflicted about this.  I have been a pretty big proponent that Lee has high value to be traded.  Both him and Julien have high values.  I am slightly changing my tune a bit.   

Lee has the ability and defensive talent, and demeanor that could handle being the super utility for the Twins.  Thats a lot to ask from a rookie.  I feel fairly comfortable he would give us .700 OPS and has the possibility to be higher. I don't think he will ever be an elite bat, but a very solid bat with good defense (think a higher end Kepler) and that has more value that even I was thinking about.    I would say he is currently the odds on favorite for rookie of the year (I don't count on this, but it gives another chance at a late first round draft pick).  If he performs his value will jump even higher.  He has the floor of a very effective mlb player.   

So do you trade him.  If another team really likes him and is effectively willing to give 1 for 1 for a high end pitcher with 2+ years of control,  it would make me think long and hard.  Ultimately though, I really like the pitching staff we have and I would rather trade from prospects in the 5-20 range for a middling or back end starter.   

In the future we can decide what to do with Lee and Julien, but performance and injuries may make this decision moot, and at that point I would really want a Lee to be able to fill a hole.  

[HoskenPowell]

Be nice if the Twins could draft and develope pitching at a better rate than they do........Seems like Cleveland/Atlanta/Miami/Houston and Tampa Bay are light years ahead of them in developing pitching.

[Hunter McCall]

30 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I see a clear path for Lee to be a starter in the next year. Farmer and Polo will likely be gone. Julien will likely be a DH heavy 2nd base platoon guy. Lee, Lewis and C4  slot in anywhere You want to put them in the IF. AK and hopefully Miranda round out the infield. It will arguably be the best in MLB for years to come. You think payroll is an issue now. How will you be paying all this guys when they get to arbitration and beyond.  There is plenty of other talent to package together to get another 1/2 ace like Pablo. 3 yrs from now, we may be WS champs and Miller will be knocking down the door to start at SS. C4 may very well have been traded for that ace.  In the mean time, don’t trade away your future allstars. 

Luis Arraez would've been a starter too on the 2023 team yet they traded him for a position of need. Why not do the same thing here with Lee? Yes there's a chance he could be good someday but this team is ready to win now. He's not ready for the majors and his .732 triple A OPS shows that.

[Hunter McCall]

28 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Who is the pitcher you trade Lee for? It had better be someone with more than 3 years team control who would immediately step ahead of pre-injury Joe Ryan of 2023. The list of guys is pretty short right?

I guess I’ve started to focus more on the guys who are good NOW, and would be a free agent sooner. 

To name a few: Logan Gilbert, Edward Cabrera (might not take Lee to get but good and controllable), Freddy Peralta. I would also trade him for Randy Arozarena if they can figure out the future payroll situation although he's still early in Arb so he's relatively cheap at the moment for how talented he is.

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I appreciate your insight. I believe that the Twins should hold on to Julien over Lee. There's still time for him show improvement, but Lee just hasn't performed at a level that shows to me he will be a star at the plate in the majors. He's been solid, but just for comparison, Julien had a career minor league OPS of .924. As I stated Brooks Lee has yet to top .850 with any team he's been a part of. Julien also has an .840 OPS in the majors. My point being why dump the young guy who has proven he can hit at every level in favor of the guy who you drafted high so you hope he can hit?

Julien will be 25 on April 30 next year, Lee will be 25 Valentines day 2026. Lee was in AAA at age 22 and Julien was in High A. Comparing what these two have done in the minors is ridiculous. You don't think if Lee was playing in High A last year in wouldn't have put up video game numbers?

[terrydactyls]

58 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lee is a keeper, with his bat & glove he's a future All-Star. There's very little doubt being so close to the MLB. You don't trade someone like that. There's no doubt that Julien bat is for real but his glove is less than desireable. Julien makes much more sense eventhough his value is less. yet he can land a Lopez type SP on his own which is perfect.

You're joking, right?  If Julien is such a detriment on the field, how is he landing a Lopez type pitcher?  And don't compare Julien to Arraez.  That comparison is laughable.

[Nashvilletwin]

1. In ‘25 and for the following four years, Lee will be better defensively and offensively at SS than Correa at less than 1/30th the cost.

2. The Twins for the second half of this decade will be built around Lewis, Jenkins, Lee and, possibly, Jeffers.  Those are four superior bats with average to above average fielding - with three of them playing up the middle.  Each of those players could be multiple times all stars from ‘25-‘30.

3. Lee has the pedigree, experience, and bat to ball skills (as a switch hitter nonetheless) which points to an incredibly high floor.

4. The Twins have several other young shortstop/infielder prospects who will grow in value over the next couple of years but still do not have Lee’s upside.  Trade them (although I envision Miller playing the incredibly important and underrated stud defensive utilty infielder role on several championship contending Twins teams later this decade).

Botton line: Keep Lee as a key piece setting ourselves up for a multi year true open window.

[Hunter McCall]

13 minutes ago, Trov said:

I think people are overhyping Julien as a "stud".  I say this because he was unplayable against lefties.  He had an OPS of .447 against lefties.  Yes, he did very well against righties overall with OPS .898, but right now he looks to be a platoon guy not a everyday stud.  Lee has not shown the on base percentage Julien has shown, but the slugging is close to each other.  

Lee is a better lefty hitter than righty, but he still has been better against lefties than Julien has.  I am still high on Julien, but if he cannot get on base against lefties then he is not a stud.  Remember everyone thought Miranda was going to be a stud after his rookie year too, now he is outside looking in. 

I am always willing to move a guy for the right deal.  Not sure who would be available though.  I would not do it for a 1 or 2 year guy really, unless we know we can resign to a few more years.  Also, they would need to be 27 or younger right now to go after in my opinion. 

I agree that Julien isn't good against lefties, but there are more, potentially better, platoon options the Twins can pair with Julien. For example, Yunior Severino is also a switch hitter who hit a minor league leading 35 home runs in 2023 and posted an .898 OPS. Austin Martin came on at the end of the season. Kyle Farmer and Jorge Polanco are still on the roster at the moment. Is Brooks Lee the most qualified to step into the lineup right now? I'd argue he's not.

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

To name a few: Logan Gilbert, Edward Cabrera (might not take Lee to get but good and controllable), Freddy Peralta. I would also trade him for Randy Arozarena if they can figure out the future payroll situation although he's still early in Arb so he's relatively cheap at the moment for how talented he is.

I wouldn't trade him for Edward Cabrera, unless quite a bit more was coming back. I can't today slot Cabrera above Ryan or Ober, so that wouldn't work for me. He MIGHT get to his ceiling some day, but he isn't close yet.

Gilbert I could see, but I don't know how much more we would have to add. I'd be open to that.

Peralta I really like quite a lot, but even with the team control, his career high in innings came last year and that was 165. He threw 144 one other time, and other than that hasn't been over 80. If they believe he has the ability to push 180 innings per year or more, then I might go that route too.

I LOVE Arozarena, that thought is interesting.

 

How about someone like Framber Valdez? I don't know why Arizona would do it, but Zac Gallen is a name I've loved for years too.

[terrydactyls]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 I would say he is currently the odds on favorite for rookie of the year (I don't count on this, but it gives another chance at a late first round draft pick). 

Haven't you heard about Orioles' prospect Jackson Holliday?  He was named MiLB hitter of he year for 2023 and is expected o break camp with he Orioles next spring.

[Hunter McCall]

17 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

 Currently either on the MLB roster or carrying a 2024 ETA, according to MLB.com, the Twins have Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, Lee, Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, and Jose Salas (unlikely to debut, but meets these criteria).

 

Is this really a log jam? Correa and Polanco (if not traded) are starters. You need back up for AK and Lewis until they prove they can stay healthy (Julien and Farmer). Salas is 21 (will be) and hasn't played above high A and hasn't been very good.

Martin will be 25 when the season starts and has done little to nothing to force the Twins into opening a spot on the major league club.  Severino is also another older prospect that hasn't forced the Twins to say he needs a spot but is good depth. Castro is a utility player and shouldn't be counted as part of a log jam.

Which leaves the Twins Lee, the one guy that could actually force the Twins to make room for him (and I have been told will be better than Correa in the next year)

I am not saying you don't trade Lee, but like Engelhardt said above who are those guys?

 

 

For what it's worth, Severino just turned 24 while Brooks Lee turns 23 in February, so not a wild discrepancy in age there. I agree that Lee is the best of the prospects, but my point remains where does he play? Does he move positions? Do you banish Julien to the DH role for the rest of his career? What if Buxton needs to take the DH spot? Lee will not be better than Carlos Correa in the next year and there has been nothing to show any indication of that. Why not capitalize on his value right now and add someone that can take this team to the next level right now instead of waiting and hoping that Lee pans out?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

54 minutes ago, Gatormandd said:

Absolutely stupid for a small-market team like the Twins to make these kinds of trades.  If we had SPENCER STEER, CHRISTIAN ENCARNCION-STRAND, CHASE PETTY coming, for example, we'd have missed what, one playoff appearance and a hole in our rotation and lineup, especially RH bats?  The trade of Arraez for Lopez is MUCH more of the type of deals the FO needs to do, guys like Polanco and Kepler who I love are past peak, and a rental SP is a much more palatable price for me.  WOuld we have to gamble that Lee can handle the load (or maybe Miranda)? Yes, but at least we'd still have a future, unlike if we gut our system to please fans that only look to the next season, then blames the FO when the cupboards are bare in the minors.  The trend of all the "upcoming teams" (Baltimore, CIncy, etc) is to KEEP THE KIDS, and NOT SELL OUT for a single season (especially since we aren't talking about the Twins being a SP away from the WS).

The Chase Petty for Sonny Gray Trade was brilliant.  We received nearly 10 WAR and will be getting a draft pick at nearly the same pick as where we picked Petty.  Petty although is doing well for Cincinnati and moved up to AA,  has had his ceiling drop some in my opinion (while also raising his floor).  He has dialed back his fastball,  generally in the 93-95 range.  He has had forearm and elbow discomfort for the last 2 years.  He threw 98 innings in 2022 and 68 in in 2023 very similar to what Marco Raya pitched.  His secondary pitches continue to be fairly strong.  Even still,  Chase Petty would not net you a Sonny Gray era 2022 pitcher right now in my opinion.  He is not the elite fireballer that could be a #1 pitcher.  He also has shown he can pitch and will likely be in the MLB assuming his elbow issues don't pop up again (once you start on elbow discomfort though,  sooner or later will likely have a more significant injury).  

The Mahle trade was terrible.  Even still CES did awesome in the minors struggled a bit in his first taste of MLB.  Steer had a pretty good season, but both are poor defenders, in the mold of Julien.  They may ultimately be 1st base/DH types.  For the chance at a #1/#2 pitcher I understand it,  but they just gave up too much.   We will have to continue to trade prospects/or players for elite difference makers in the future.  I am ok with that.    

Also our future looks really good.  The 2022 and 2023 drafts both have done very very good as well as the prior drafts.  This FO is setting us up for sustained success and I am very happy about that.