Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?

[Hunter McCall]

18 minutes ago, Brad.dahlen said:

This question would seriously hinge on the organization's current assessment of Julien's progress defensively at 2B.

I thought he took strides during the season. The question is can he continue to improve? You're right though!

[Dman]

24 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

I appreciate your insight. I believe that the Twins should hold on to Julien over Lee. There's still time for him show improvement, but Lee just hasn't performed at a level that shows to me he will be a star at the plate in the majors. He's been solid, but just for comparison, Julien had a career minor league OPS of .924. As I stated Brooks Lee has yet to top .850 with any team he's been a part of. Julien also has an .840 OPS in the majors. My point being why dump the young guy who has proven he can hit at every level in favor of the guy who you drafted high so you hope he can hit?

Yeah but you are forgetting something.  Lee made it all the way to AAA in first full pro season it took Julien three years to get there.  Lee doesn't quite have Julien's patience but his bat to ball skills are excellent and Lee hits from both sides of the plate.  It is really hard to find good switch hitters which makes him even more valuable IMO.  I still see All Star upside and a versatile player who can play all three spots if needed.  That is not the right player to trade IMO he is a unicorn.

[mnfireman]

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Julien will be 25 on April 30 next year, Lee will be 25 Valentines day 2026. Lee was in AAA at age 22 and Julien was in High A. Comparing what these two have done in the minors is ridiculous. You don't think if Lee was playing in High A last year in wouldn't have put up video game numbers?

I was just going to point this out. Add in the fact that Lee's defense is already MLB ready, though he did have a few yips when first promoted to AAA, and I don't think Lee is the type of player you trade; he's the type of player you build around. 

[SF Twins Fan]

I feel like saying he hasn't dominated the minors and using the fact he hasn't hit higher than an .850 OPS at any level is disingenuous.  He was drafted in 2022, so 2023 was his first full year in the minors, which means he's been pushed very quickly up the ladder.  In 2022 he had 4 games in Rookie ball, then only 25 games in A+, and then 2 games in AA.  He had an OPS of .848 in A+ that season.  He then started in AA in 2023 and in his first 47 games had an OPS of .757, however in his last 40 games he had an OPS of .934. So, it clearly took him some time to adjust to AA and then he dominated. 

He was promoted to AAA and struggled the first 21 games with an OPS of .658, however over the last 17 games he had an OPS of .829.  So, again he clearly took some time to adjust to AAA and then hit well.

 

Overall, he's only played 156 minor league games and 38 of those are at AAA.  If he's given enough time at a certain level he will likely hit well above .850 OPS.

[Hunter McCall]

19 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I am conflicted about this.  I have been a pretty big proponent that Lee has high value to be traded.  Both him and Julien have high values.  I am slightly changing my tune a bit.   

Lee has the ability and defensive talent, and demeanor that could handle being the super utility for the Twins.  Thats a lot to ask from a rookie.  I feel fairly comfortable he would give us .700 OPS and has the possibility to be higher.  I would say he is currently the odds on favorite for rookie of the year (I don't count on this, but it gives another chance at a late first round draft pick).  If he performs his value will jump even higher.  He has the floor of a very effective mlb player.   

So do you trade him.  If another team really likes him and is effectively willing to give 1 for 1 for a high end pitcher with 2+ years of control,  it would make me think long and hard.  Ultimately though, I really like the pitching staff we have and I would rather trade from prospects in the 5-20 range for a middling or back end starter.   

In the future we can decide what to do with Lee and Julien, but performance and injuries may make this decision moot, and at that point I would really want a Lee to be able to fill a hole.  

The pitching staff as it sits isn't good enough to top what the 2023 team did, which should be the goal. This team is built to win now, but you have to help it do so. There's next to no chance that Lee wins the ROY in 2024. I think expectations on him from fans are way higher than they should be. He has potential to be a great player, but what has he shown that says he should be up with the Twins next year? In my opinion, it's time to take a leap of faith and put together a team that will compete to make a run in 2024.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

7 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Haven't you heard about Orioles' prospect Jackson Holliday?  He was named MiLB hitter of he year for 2023 and is expected o break camp with he Orioles next spring.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-contenders-for-2024-rookies-of-the-year

Yes I've heard of Holliday.  I also don't think he will start at the MLB level next year.  He is 19.   There is also the aspect I have more confidence in Lee handling the MLB rigors than Holliday right now.  If you read the rest of my post I basically still stated the odds are low.  

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah but you are forgetting something.  Lee made it all the way to AAA in first full pro season it took Julien three years to get there.  Lee doesn't quite have Julien's patience but his bat to ball skills are excellent and Lee hits from both sides of the plate.  It is really hard to find good switch hitters which makes him even more valuable IMO.  I still see All Star upside and a versatile player who can play all three spots if needed.  That is not the right player to trade IMO he is a unicorn.

It's not really fair to compare how long it took them to climb the minors considering Julien lost a professional year during the COVID year and was drafted at a younger age than Lee. I don't consider Lee a unicorn I guess.

[harmony55]

15 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

To name a few: Logan Gilbert, Edward Cabrera (might not take Lee to get but good and controllable), Freddy Peralta. I would also trade him for Randy Arozarena if they can figure out the future payroll situation although he's still early in Arb so he's relatively cheap at the moment for how talented he is.

Brooks Lee could reunite in Seattle with righthander Bryan Woo, his college teammate at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.

While we're at it, Edouard Julien could reunite with promising Seattle second base prospect Ryan Bliss, his college teammate at Auburn.

Baseball Trade Values accepts a trade of Lee and Julien for Logan Gilbert and catcher Harry Ford, the 39th-ranked prospect at MLB.com. Each team trades from its depth to address its needs.

[EGFTShaw]

First comment: Whelp this got some people active on TD... 😆

Second comment: I am not in favor of trading Brooks Lee in general.

Third comment: No one should be considered untouchable if the return is right.  Well, the No Trade guys are I guess by definition untouchable. 

But if you have a change to improve your team, you make the deal.  But as with any trade that is an attempt to foretell the future outcome, it is fraught with risk.  As the Lopez/Arraez trade shows it can be a win/win and at this moment the Rogers/Paddock/et al trade at the moment can be a lose/lose. Note: It is trending towards a Twins win if Paddock contributes at a meaningful level.

But go BIG or go HOME to the Oakland Las Vegas Athletics.

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Hunter McCall said:

It's not really fair to compare how long it took them to climb the minors considering Julien lost a professional year during the COVID year and was drafted at a younger age than Lee. I don't consider Lee a unicorn I guess.

How many MLB switch hitters that can play all three spots and likely be elite hitters?  That would be my definition of unicorn.

[Hunter McCall]

16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I wouldn't trade him for Edward Cabrera, unless quite a bit more was coming back. I can't today slot Cabrera above Ryan or Ober, so that wouldn't work for me. He MIGHT get to his ceiling some day, but he isn't close yet.

Gilbert I could see, but I don't know how much more we would have to add. I'd be open to that.

Peralta I really like quite a lot, but even with the team control, his career high in innings came last year and that was 165. He threw 144 one other time, and other than that hasn't been over 80. If they believe he has the ability to push 180 innings per year or more, then I might go that route too.

I LOVE Arozarena, that thought is interesting.

 

How about someone like Framber Valdez? I don't know why Arizona would do it, but Zac Gallen is a name I've loved for years too.

I threw Cabrera in here because he's controllable through 2028 and his baseball savant page is very red (outside of his BB%).

If the Twins can get teams like Houston and Arizona (might have missed the boat on that one) to listen to trade offers then why not try? I doubt it, but the point is Lee gives them much more opportunity to land a sizable return.

[mnfireman]

1 minute ago, Hunter McCall said:

It's not really fair to compare how long it took them to climb the minors considering Julien lost a professional year during the COVID year and was drafted at a younger age than Lee. I don't consider Lee a unicorn I guess.

Can't use the lost season argument on here, I have tried and been told by the resident experts on here that player development was not hindered because all college and MiLB players were equally affected.

[Hunter McCall]

46 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

how 'bout NO.. no consideration whatsoever.. Twins need a superstar..ALL Star caliber player  ...and this kid could be it. You dont trade this caliber of player....move along

I don't know if Lee has ever been pegged as a future superstar. Future All star, maybe. I think you're overvaluing him in my opinion.

[wsnydes]

34 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Why deal Lewis and Julien over Lee?

I think Lewis has more value than Julien and I believe in Lewis' overall game more than Julien.  His inability to stay healthy is what bothers me.  I see Julien as an Arraez type with more pop, which I appreciate and like, but his glove bothers me.  I think Lee has upside over both, which is why I'd keep him.  That said, I wouldn't deal Lewis for just anyone either.  I wouldn't necessarily shop Julien either, but I'd certainly listen.  

Give me an infield of Lee, Correa and Lewis and I'd be ecstatic regardless of who is at 1B.

[KBJ1]

We traded some very good prospects for Mahle and got damaged goods on return. Outside of Lee, there really isn't much in our pipeline of potential All Star talent. Trade Kepler & Polanco now and if Lee developes, trade Julien next year.

Our SP is still pretty good, but our hitting needs to be better. Contact hitters like Lee & Martin will help. Our biggest need is still a slugging RH 5 tool guy in LF.

Getting Gurriel would be the best thing this team could do!

[Hunter McCall]

42 minutes ago, Gatormandd said:

Absolutely stupid for a small-market team like the Twins to make these kinds of trades.  If we had SPENCER STEER, CHRISTIAN ENCARNCION-STRAND, CHASE PETTY coming, for example, we'd have missed what, one playoff appearance and a hole in our rotation and lineup, especially RH bats?  The trade of Arraez for Lopez is MUCH more of the type of deals the FO needs to do, guys like Polanco and Kepler who I love are past peak, and a rental SP is a much more palatable price for me.  WOuld we have to gamble that Lee can handle the load (or maybe Miranda)? Yes, but at least we'd still have a future, unlike if we gut our system to please fans that only look to the next season, then blames the FO when the cupboards are bare in the minors.  The trend of all the "upcoming teams" (Baltimore, CIncy, etc) is to KEEP THE KIDS, and NOT SELL OUT for a single season (especially since we aren't talking about the Twins being a SP away from the WS).

Where would Spencer Steer and CES be playing? What position would either of them even threaten to overtake?

 

Hard to compare the Twins situation to Baltimore's because they drafted several stars at the very top of the draft. It's not like the Twins would be trading away all their talent either considering over half their starting lineup is homegrown.

[Hunter McCall]

17 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

I feel like saying he hasn't dominated the minors and using the fact he hasn't hit higher than an .850 OPS at any level is disingenuous.  He was drafted in 2022, so 2023 was his first full year in the minors, which means he's been pushed very quickly up the ladder.  In 2022 he had 4 games in Rookie ball, then only 25 games in A+, and then 2 games in AA.  He had an OPS of .848 in A+ that season.  He then started in AA in 2023 and in his first 47 games had an OPS of .757, however in his last 40 games he had an OPS of .934. So, it clearly took him some time to adjust to AA and then he dominated. 

He was promoted to AAA and struggled the first 21 games with an OPS of .658, however over the last 17 games he had an OPS of .829.  So, again he clearly took some time to adjust to AAA and then hit well.

 

Overall, he's only played 156 minor league games and 38 of those are at AAA.  If he's given enough time at a certain level he will likely hit well above .850 OPS.

Again, I've said it from the beginning, I think Lee will be good, I just don't think he's some untouchable Hall of Fame prospect that the Twins shouldn't consider trading. I think it would be what's best for the Minnesota Twins at this moment to trade Brooks Lee for assets to help win right now.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

The pitching staff as it sits isn't good enough to top what the 2023 team did, which should be the goal. This team is built to win now, but you have to help it do so. There's next to no chance that Lee wins the ROY in 2024. I think expectations on him from fans are way higher than they should be. He has potential to be a great player, but what has he shown that says he should be up with the Twins next year? In my opinion, it's time to take a leap of faith and put together a team that will compete to make a run in 2024.

I think Pablo is starting to establish himself as a #1 and could see him have a better season even next year on a WAR basis. Ryan struggle with health especially down the stretch.  That he could do better is not out of the question.  Ober will most like be pretty similar.  Then you have Paddack.  Even on an innings limit,  I really liked the way he pitched last year.  The velocity was there, and the breaking pitches looked good.  No I still think as a whole it may be a little lower than next year as it stands.  However look at the playoff teams you had quite a few in the 10-20 range that did really well.  As long as there isn't a massive dropoff I am ok with that.  Would I love to get another #2 pitcher, absolutely.  However there is a cost.  I am ok with trading Lee or Julien and of the two I do think Lee likely nets you the best player.  

As to Lee if he is the MLB team,  I would say he has a 5-10% chance to win the rookie of the year.  He has name recognition, and any player could get hot for a couple months.  This is a balance of handling the long term needs of the team along with the short term.  We effectively gutted the 2021 draft for MLB needs and up to this point have been able to replenish the minors and the depth in the minors actually looks very very good.  I will wait to see what happens and will likely be ok with whatever decision is made.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Where would Spencer Steer and CES be playing? What position would either of them even threaten to overtake?

 

Hard to compare the Twins situation to Baltimore's because they drafted several stars at the very top of the draft. It's not like the Twins would be trading away all their talent either considering over half their starting lineup is homegrown.

Agreed on this. Good for Steer to get an opportunity he wouldn't have gotten here, and CES is a DH only who isn't a star. They are getting a chance with a team that they wouldn't have gotten here.

[mikelink45]

NO - if you have been looking at the premium contracts that SS get - even those who are switched to 2B (Story and Semien) then you look at Lee and Lewis and recognize that if Correa goes down for any reason these are our most valuable assets. 

We have enough funds and players to go after a SP without Lee or Lewis being included in the deal.  

[Hunter McCall]

14 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

First comment: Whelp this got some people active on TD... 😆

Second comment: I am not in favor of trading Brooks Lee in general.

Third comment: No one should be considered untouchable if the return is right.  Well, the No Trade guys are I guess by definition untouchable. 

But if you have a change to improve your team, you make the deal.  But as with any trade that is an attempt to foretell the future outcome, it is fraught with risk.  As the Lopez/Arraez trade shows it can be a win/win and at this moment the Rogers/Paddock/et al trade at the moment can be a lose/lose. Note: It is trending towards a Twins win if Paddock contributes at a meaningful level.

But go BIG or go HOME to the Oakland Las Vegas Athletics.

It sure gets thoughts provoking I agree!

I appreciate your openness to understand that it should be on the table. As I mentioned, the return should be sizable.

I will argue the Twins won the Rogers/Paddack AND PAGAN trade by a landslide. Pagan alone made that deal worthwhile. I'm excited to see what Paddack can do in 2024!

[Hunter McCall]

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

How many MLB switch hitters that can play all three spots and likely be elite hitters?  That would be my definition of unicorn.

Again though that's assuming he's an elite hitter. I also doubt he'll ever play much shortstop.

[Hunter McCall]

16 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Can't use the lost season argument on here, I have tried and been told by the resident experts on here that player development was not hindered because all college and MiLB players were equally affected.

But you can't really say he was down in the minors for three years because he wasn't lol

[Fatbat]

42 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Luis Arraez would've been a starter too on the 2023 team yet they traded him for a position of need. Why not do the same thing here with Lee? Yes there's a chance he could be good someday but this team is ready to win now. He's not ready for the majors and his .732 triple A OPS shows that.

I’m not saying he is ready in April but I do think in the next year, he will be on the varsity because he forces his way there. 
we traded Arraez because Julien and Lee we’re waiting behind him so if you go apples to apples. Its Polo and Farmer that you trade. You also have to identify the player and a team willing to do a trade. Good luck getting a Pablo for a miner leaguer vs. a batting champ

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

If the Twins want to compete for the post-season in the next year or two, they absolutely need to add another quality starting pitcher. Brooks Lee is a great prospect, and I think he's about ready for the jump to MLB, but I don't see a clear  path for him with the Twins as things stand. I mean, which position will he play? He seems blocked by veterans at almost all key positions right now, so fitting him into the starting lineup will take some creativity and/or it will mean getting rid of someone else. So yes, I think the Twins should at least consider any offers for Brooks Lee. Hey, he could well become a Hall of Fame caliber player, and we could end up regretting that we moved him. but as we head into a new season I think we need pitching more than hitting, and he's one of our most valuable trade pieces. 

I don’t understand the desperation for pitching. I agree with trying to supplement the current staff but the Twins were 15-19 in Sonny Gray’s starts in ‘23…….it doesn’t matter how high quality of performance he had in games they didn’t win ……..an odd thinking but realistic. Obviously, the better the pitcher throws the better chance for a win! However, we have 3 guys that project, maybe 4 if Ryan quits giving up so many HR, to have ERA under 4.00. Do we think that there is no way Louie Varland can go .500 as our 5th starter?

We do need depth!

Gray pitched well in one playoff game (with a pick-off at 2B to get out of a jam) & not very good at all in another.

The other issue I don’t understand is our willingness to only trade for pitching but an affinity to go out & sign a 1B or OF via FA.

There are guys out there that can be signed for a year or two at $11 -$14M per year for one or two years. Not too expensive!

Keep Lee - play him at 3B - move Lewis to LF or 1B where he can hit & stay healthy. Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B & trade Polanco to afford pitching. If Wallner’s hitting we could move Kepler in July & shift Lewis to LF. Buxton doesn’t allow Twins to have DH options.

Pitching is certainly a must but we can’t afford to trade 1st round picks (bats) that are evolving and have a reasonable ceiling! Other ways to get arms via trade, if desired, w/o giving up Lee……….Rodriguez - Festa - Miranda - Gordon - Larnach - Polanco ……….younger prospects, etc.

Seems with Martin coming & capable in CF & Jenkins destined there in 2-3 years, Rodriguez could be our most viable carrot in a trade.

[terrydactyls]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-inbox-contenders-for-2024-rookies-of-the-year

Yes I've heard of Holliday.  I also don't think he will start at the MLB level next year.  He is 19.   There is also the aspect I have more confidence in Lee handling the MLB rigors than Holliday right now.  If you read the rest of my post I basically still stated the odds are low.  

He'll be 20 in two days.  And Baltimore sources such as Baltimore Banner report that he will be at spring training with a good chance of breaking camp with the Orioles.  Also MLB radio was reporting the same thing yesterday.

[Hunter McCall]

15 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

I think Lewis has more value than Julien and I believe in Lewis' overall game more than Julien.  His inability to stay healthy is what bothers me.  I see Julien as an Arraez type with more pop, which I appreciate and like, but his glove bothers me.  I think Lee has upside over both, which is why I'd keep him.  That said, I wouldn't deal Lewis for just anyone either.  I wouldn't necessarily shop Julien either, but I'd certainly listen.  

Give me an infield of Lee, Correa and Lewis and I'd be ecstatic regardless of who is at 1B.

Saying Lee has more upside than Lewis is wild.

[Hunter McCall]

16 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

We traded some very good prospects for Mahle and got damaged goods on return. Outside of Lee, there really isn't much in our pipeline of potential All Star talent. Trade Kepler & Polanco now and if Lee developes, trade Julien next year.

Our SP is still pretty good, but our hitting needs to be better. Contact hitters like Lee & Martin will help. Our biggest need is still a slugging RH 5 tool guy in LF.

Getting Gurriel would be the best thing this team could do!

Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez both have more upside than Lee in my opinion.

Our starting pitching is not pretty good it's okay. Okay will not top what the Twins did in 2023.

[farmerguychris]

I think its ok for every team to have a few untouchables - not many, but a few.  He would be one for me.

[wsnydes]

8 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Saying Lee has more upside than Lewis is wild.

Not if you think his injuries are going to catch up with him.

And I hope that I'm dead wrong about that.