Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?

[specialiststeve]

ABSOLUTLY NOT!!! 

Trading high end bats that are controlable ... even though not proven but highly likely he will be VERY good for an arm is a great way to end up in the abyss. Terrible idea and pretty sure the FO knows it. 

Trading Polanco and getting quality minor leaguers back or an arm would be fine as that is the progression that keeps teams competitive See Tampa Bay.... The recipe is there and we have the ingredients. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm not sure I've ever seen everybody this riled up before.  Wow!

The bottom line is that the Twins are going to acquire a starting pitcher (or 2), almost certainly through trade.  If we want that pitcher to be a "#2" or better, it will absolutely take a prospect or two that we really would rather not trade.  Last year we traded the batting champ for a pitcher like that, and many were upset about that as well.  Simply put, you aren't going to get a high level pitcher for Kepler or Polanco.  They just don't have that kind of value. 

As to which prospects to trade and which to keep, I'll put that on the front office. They have about 100 times as much information about each of them as well as how they perceive them fitting in with the big league team in the future.  I don't really think there are ANY prospects that are totally off the table, as there are no sure things out there, even if the world ranks them highly.  I'd bet my David McCarty jersey on it! 

It's a long off-season.  Be patient.  Maybe in the meantime they could get a TV contract moving.  That would help clarify many, many things. 

[SoDakTwinsFan]

17 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

ABSOLUTLY NOT!!! 

Trading high end bats that are controlable ... even though not proven but highly likely he will be VERY good for an arm is a great way to end up in the abyss. Terrible idea and pretty sure the FO knows it. 

Trading Polanco and getting quality minor leaguers back or an arm would be fine as that is the progression that keeps teams competitive See Tampa Bay.... The recipe is there and we have the ingredients. 

We really have no idea if he is a high end bat though.  He MIGHT be one but until he proves it in the bigs it's all projections.  I would take the proven controllable MLB starter versus a minor league player that SHOULD be good someday every time.

[Fatbat]

3 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

I'm not sure you understand how trading works in MLB. As the 18th ranked prospect on MLBPipeline, Brooks Lee is more than valuable enough to acquire a guy comparable to Lopez. Also neither Farmer nor Polanco hold enough value to do the same.

Obviously polo and farmer don’t get you Pablo but neither does Lee on his own. It took a batting champ and a willing team with a need for a 2B to trade away Pablo. As of right now, would Miami trade Pablo for Lee today if Arraez /Pablo didn’t happen last year? 100% no way.  They would still be asking for arraez. 

[Fatbat]

36 minutes ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

We really have no idea if he is a high end bat though.  He MIGHT be one but until he proves it in the bigs it's all projections.  I would take the proven controllable MLB starter versus a minor league player that SHOULD be good someday every time.

Do you know of a team that has a need for Lee and would be willing to trade away a #2 SP? I doubt that you could find one that didn’t have enough risk to actually trade Lee away.  Plenty of guys full of warts but nothing like a Jordan Montgomery that we could just go buy if we had the budget to do so.

[Fatbat]

58 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen everybody this riled up before.  Wow!

The bottom line is that the Twins are going to acquire a starting pitcher (or 2), almost certainly through trade.  If we want that pitcher to be a "#2" or better, it will absolutely take a prospect or two that we really would rather not trade.  Last year we traded the batting champ for a pitcher like that, and many were upset about that as well.  Simply put, you aren't going to get a high level pitcher for Kepler or Polanco.  They just don't have that kind of value. 

As to which prospects to trade and which to keep, I'll put that on the front office. They have about 100 times as much information about each of them as well as how they perceive them fitting in with the big league team in the future.  I don't really think there are ANY prospects that are totally off the table, as there are no sure things out there, even if the world ranks them highly.  I'd bet my David McCarty jersey on it! 

It's a long off-season.  Be patient.  Maybe in the meantime they could get a TV contract moving.  That would help clarify many, many things. 

I would be willing to bet that the FO sees Lee, Jenkins and Erod as off the trade table.  They have plenty of other assets to package up to get pitching. The guy(S) they get really depends on the trading partner.  It seems like its a sellers market so I personally think they should pivot and sign a FA. Just my opinion that isnt worth much. 🤣

[Danchat]

4 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

Where would Spencer Steer and CES be playing? What position would either of them even threaten to overtake?

I think Steer would have gotten ample chances at 3B/1B once Miranda broke down and Kirilloff had his problems. Maybe then Lewis plays more CF and we see less Michael Taylor out there. CES probably gets a short call-up or two but doesn't get the chances he did in Cincy.

In that alternate situation, we're probably discussing how one of these guys is getting moved, whether it be Steer/Julien/Polanco.

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I would be willing to bet that the FO sees Lee, Jenkins and Erod as off the trade table.  They have plenty of other assets to package up to get pitching. The guy(S) they get really depends on the trading partner.  It seems like its a sellers market so I personally think they should pivot and sign a FA. Just my opinion that isnt worth much. 🤣

How often do you see a team trade their top prospect or 2nd best prospect.  It's rare.  Your opinion is supported by a lot of history.

[harmony55]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Do you know of a team that has a need for Lee and would be willing to trade away a #2 SP? I doubt that you could find one that didn’t have enough risk to actually trade Lee away.  Plenty of guys full of warts but nothing like a Jordan Montgomery that we could just go buy if we had the budget to do so.

Brooks Lee could be a long-term solution at third base for Seattle but the Mariners would need more to surrender a likely No. 2 starter in Logan Gilbert. Among pitchers over the past two seasons Pablo Lopez ranks 12th in fWAR with 7.3 in 374 innings over 64 starts while Gilbert ranks 18th with 6.3 fWAR in 376.1 innings over 64 starts. Over the past two years Lopez and Gilbert are tied with 6.2 bWAR.

[tony&rodney]

Great post Hunter. 

After some discussions yesterday about my opposition to strict adherence to BTV (an interesting site to use with a grain of salt), I noticed that were several huge leaps or depreciations in the values. This got me to thinking about writing up a post about Royce Lewis. Reading this stream, I've decided to put that rough draft post in the trash because everything here applies to Lewis pretty much. 

This post and the discussions are the entire crux of a situation the Twins face this offseason. The AL Central should be in hand barring a collapse, but small tweaks can be made to move the Twins into the top ten teams in baseball. We all like Lee, Lewis, etc. Not all of the players fit. Pitching is always the main currency to winning. I like the rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, and Paddack, but a clear upgrade would make a difference. I disagree that Seattle will never consider trading Kirby or Gilbert, but either will cost. BTW, for those who love BTV, Lewis is worth quite a bit more than Gilbert. 

These are the conversations being hashed out in a conference room at Target Field. Can Lewis play 2B? Lee is a little slow and has always been seen as a third baseman. I saw a few comments that suggested that Lee will be better than Correa by as early as next year and surely by 2025. Look at Correa's career and it is crazy to expect that. I'm very high on all of Lewis, Lee, and Julien. Unlike some, I can see any one of the three having a clearly better career than the other two without eliminating or favoring one.

Falvey makes the big bucks and gets to make these calls and then speak promotionally afterwards. I'm leaving all worries to him and just hope the Twins are a better team and more exciting to watch in 2024. 

[specialiststeve]

1 hour ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

We really have no idea if he is a high end bat though.  He MIGHT be one but until he proves it in the bigs it's all projections.  I would take the proven controllable MLB starter versus a minor league player that SHOULD be good someday every time.

Guess that would depend on the "proven controllable MLB starter" ! If we are talking about a guy that has a chance to be a #1 or #2.... okay... I buy it but a a 3-5 guy for a possible middle of the lineup bat.... um... absolutely not. 

Look at all the teams that suck... what do they have in common? Either their pitching stinks or their bats stink or.. Both. The Twins pitching  is 3 or 4 deep right now and "if" Lee is the real deal with Lewis, Julian, Wallner and Jeffers we would have a core for the foreseeable future that "should" keep us near the top if not at the top of the division. 

The so called experts that make up the prospect rankings are often wrong... but are often right! I would prefer a studly partner for Lewis and the youngsters than a midland controllable starter. 

[SoDakTwinsFan]

22 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Guess that would depend on the "proven controllable MLB starter" ! If we are talking about a guy that has a chance to be a #1 or #2.... okay... I buy it but a a 3-5 guy for a possible middle of the lineup bat.... um... absolutely not. 

Look at all the teams that suck... what do they have in common? Either their pitching stinks or their bats stink or.. Both. The Twins pitching  is 3 or 4 deep right now and "if" Lee is the real deal with Lewis, Julian, Wallner and Jeffers we would have a core for the foreseeable future that "should" keep us near the top if not at the top of the division. 

The so called experts that make up the prospect rankings are often wrong... but are often right! I would prefer a studly partner for Lewis and the youngsters than a midland controllable starter. 

Yes.  A #1 or solid #2. Brooks Lee for Kyle Gibson won't cut it.

[specialiststeve]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

These are the conversations being hashed out in a conference room at Target Field. Can Lewis play 2B? Lee is a little slow and has always been seen as a third baseman.

Lee is a 50 grade at speed and if was in many systems would be an "A" prospect at SS.... Not sure where you came up with "a little slow" but don't believe that is accurate. Does he have blazing speed... nope... is he pulling the plow? Absolutely not. 

I think he would have a shot at being a high end 2B with a shot at future all star games at that position... believe that is where he will be very early next year! 

[Fezig]

With statements like this: "the scouting report showed an incredible ability to put the bat on the baseball. With decent pop and an insanely low strikeout rate, the Cal Poly shortstop worked his way into being a borderline top-5 prospect in the draft" it makes sense to get rid of him. Plate discipline and the ability to put the bat on the ball is not the Twins way! Back to back strikeout records here we come!

[tony&rodney]

27 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Lee is a 50 grade at speed and if was in many systems would be an "A" prospect at SS.... Not sure where you came up with "a little slow" but don't believe that is accurate. Does he have blazing speed... nope... is he pulling the plow? Absolutely not. 

I think he would have a shot at being a high end 2B with a shot at future all star games at that position... believe that is where he will be very early next year! 

You could be correct. My assessments are based on a number of reviews, but mostly on observations having seen him play. To be clear though, I have also said on numerous occasions that I believe that Brooks Lee will be a successful MLB player. This is not something I would throw around loosely about all highly rated prospects.

The post postulates that the Twins might have a chance to improve their team substantially by trading Brooks Lee. It is predictably controversial as would be a similar post substituting Royce Lewis for Lee. These are good conversations to have and there isn't any reason for people to get too strident in their beliefs because it is Falvey and the squad who make these calls.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lee is a keeper, with his bat & glove he's a future All-Star. There's very little doubt being so close to the MLB. You don't trade someone like that. There's no doubt that Julien bat is for real but his glove is less than desireable. Julien makes much more sense eventhough his value is less. yet he can land a Lopez type SP on his own which is perfect.

There is evidence that Julien improved his defense as the year went on, and the Twins weren't 'hiding' him at DH - he played 75 at 2B versus 27 at DH. The point about Lee's hitting is valid - he's not been above .850 OPS at ANY level of professional baseball, while Julien was .839 at the MLB level last year. I'm taking the bird in the hand and shopping Lee.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Brooks Lee could be a long-term solution at third base for Seattle but the Mariners would need more to surrender a likely No. 2 starter in Logan Gilbert. Among pitchers over the past two seasons Pablo Lopez ranks 12th in fWAR with 7.3 in 374 innings over 64 starts while Gilbert ranks 18th with 6.3 fWAR in 376.1 innings over 64 starts.

Seattle will not trade Gilbert for Lee.  That would be like us trading Pablo to the whiteys for their SS prospect that is ranked 1 spot ahead of Lee and right behind Jenkins. The Whiteys also wouldn’t do that trade cause they just let Tim Anderson walk. 

[arby58]

8 hours ago, Fatbat said:

I see a clear path for Lee to be a starter in the next year. Farmer and Polo will likely be gone. Julien will likely be a DH heavy 2nd base platoon guy. Lee, Lewis and C4  slot in anywhere You want to put them in the IF. AK and hopefully Miranda round out the infield. It will arguably be the best in MLB for years to come. You think payroll is an issue now. How will you be paying all this guys when they get to arbitration and beyond.  There is plenty of other talent to package together to get another 1/2 ace like Pablo. 3 yrs from now, we may be WS champs and Miller will be knocking down the door to start at SS. C4 may very well have been traded for that ace.  In the mean time, don’t trade away your future allstars. 

Problems with the clear path: Lee is a switch hitter, so what's the platoon point of view for 2B? Julien played 3/4ths of his MLB games at 2B, not DH, so I don't think the Twins see him in that role. Correa and Lewis are (unless injured) going to be at SS and 3B. You already have Castro as a backup there if needed. My guess is they keep one of either Polanco or Farmer, so still no room for Lee.

The point about 'how will you pay all these guys at arbitration' is to move some of them so it isn't an issue. I still think Lee is the likely candidate, given his value but not yet proven ratio.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd deal Lee for a number 2 starter (that player is up to the FO to find and believe in) with 3+ years of control, but why would anyone deal that type of pitcher? 100% not for a rental, and likely not for 2 years of a player either. 

I understand the logjam, and the doubts about his bat (all 1 year of pro ball to judge him....), but he's a consensus top 10-20 player. That's not a player to deal w/o an insane return back (even if you have to bundle him to get it).

[arby58]

7 hours ago, Dman said:

Yeah but you are forgetting something.  Lee made it all the way to AAA in first full pro season it took Julien three years to get there.  Lee doesn't quite have Julien's patience but his bat to ball skills are excellent and Lee hits from both sides of the plate.  It is really hard to find good switch hitters which makes him even more valuable IMO.  I still see All Star upside and a versatile player who can play all three spots if needed.  That is not the right player to trade IMO he is a unicorn.

The flip side of this is that Julien made it to AAA and MLB at age 24. Lee will likely start next year at AAA at age 23.  It's not as if Lee wasn't playing baseball those other years, he just did it for longer in college than Julien.

[arby58]

7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

I was just going to point this out. Add in the fact that Lee's defense is already MLB ready, though he did have a few yips when first promoted to AAA, and I don't think Lee is the type of player you trade; he's the type of player you build around. 

This 'he was here at age this and he was here at age that' is interesting, but it is not necessarily indicative of future performance.  Kirby Puckett was in A league ball at age 23. He was in the majors at age 24 and did ok. Julien was in the majors at age 24 and did ok as well. 

We don't know about Lee - who has never had an OPS above .850 at ANY level of professional baseball.

[Fatbat]

9 hours ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

Prospects are always an unknown commodity.  IF you have the chance to take a good prospect like Lee and flip him for a proven starting pitcher you pull that trigger.  Once upon a time Buxton was the #1 prospect, I wouldn't say he has lived up to the hype.  Lewis was a top 10 prospect and he can't stay healthy.  For all the "can't miss" prospects that live up to the hype, there are plenty that do not.  I've always been a believer in taking an unknown, which is what prospects are, and flipping them for proven players especially pitchers.

The legend of Royce Lewis has just begun. Slipping on ice and blowing an acl could happen to anyone but look what he has done. People used to bash him in the minors because his setup/swing wasn’t perfect. These kids will develop their craft at different rates. I dislike comparisons for that very reason.

[Dennesey55347]

I'd do it. Obviously the Twins will make a respectable decision on equivalents. The org. has had little success developing non pitchers in the 2000's. Our offensive output has been ugly the last 2 years and it will likely be 3 next season. The only option is to run back the same game plan of a solid starting 5. Feed him, board him, and make a toast to the great Mr. Lee.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

We don't know about Lee - who has never had an OPS above .850 at ANY level of professional baseball.

You selected that second decimal value with care, did you not. 

Straight out of college, excelled at high-A, not rookie league* or single-A.  Next season, didn't miss a beat at AA.  Acquitted himself decently at AAA, with a low enough BABIP to suggest his performance there will trend upward almost immediately next season.

The Twins have been criticized for slow promotion of their prospects.  Damned if they do, damned if they don't.  Lee possibly could have OPSed 1.000 in rookie ball and then repeated the feat at single-A in his second year.  But who the heck would want that? That's what you do with a Nate Baez type, who I see has put up nice numbers at single-A after college.  Brooks Lee, you want to keep challenged.

Brooks Lee shows all the earmarks of a keeper.  No prospect is a sure thing - neither is an established veteran - human beings are like that.  We "do know" about Lee, almost exactly as well as any player.

Of course being a keeper makes him great trade bait if the target acquisition is significant enough.  I'm on the fence, thinking we should keep him, but open to a trade for a great pitcher with years of control.

* Okay, 4 games there

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

If the Twins want to compete for the post-season in the next year or two, they absolutely need to add another quality starting pitcher. Brooks Lee is a great prospect, and I think he's about ready for the jump to MLB, but I don't see a clear  path for him with the Twins as things stand. I mean, which position will he play? He seems blocked by veterans at almost all key positions right now, so fitting him into the starting lineup will take some creativity and/or it will mean getting rid of someone else. So yes, I think the Twins should at least consider any offers for Brooks Lee. Hey, he could well become a Hall of Fame caliber player, and we could end up regretting that we moved him. but as we head into a new season I think we need pitching more than hitting, and he's one of our most valuable trade pieces. 

I think that if you ask Varland and Festa if we need another SP, I bet they would both say “don’t sleep on us being everything the team needs in ‘24-27. They both have a ton of development and pitches to throw to prove how good they will be but I’m not gonna bet against them. The Twins do need more pitching in ‘24 but it may well come from within in 24/25. 

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, Dennesey55347 said:

I'd do it. Obviously the Twins will make a respectable decision on equivalents. The org. has had little success developing non pitchers in the 2000's. Our offensive output has been ugly the last 2 years and it will likely be 3 next season. The only option is to run back the same game plan of a solid starting 5. Feed him, board him, and make a toast to the great Mr. Lee.

by ugly you mean tenth in all of baseball after the July 1 this last year in runs scored? That's when they committed to the younger players that they clearly haven't developed.

[arby58]

23 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Brooks Lee shows all the earmarks of a keeper.  No prospect is a sure thing - neither is an established veteran - human beings are like that.  We "do know" about Lee, almost exactly as well as any player.

Of course being a keeper makes him great trade bait if the target acquisition is significant enough.  I'm on the fence, thinking we should keep him, but open to a trade for a great pitcher with years of control.

Agree - he's a keeper. We're not getting a solid starting pitcher for less. My question is who to keep, Julien or Lee? Julien has proven himself at the MLB level, Lee is a prospect - maybe with a higher ceiling, but still not proven. I like to take the safe side, keep the more known quantity, even if Lee has more upside potential. YMMV, and I don't disagree with that.

[ashbury]

Just now, arby58 said:

Agree - he's a keeper. We're not getting a solid starting pitcher for less. My question is who to keep, Julien or Lee? Julien has proven himself at the MLB level, Lee is a prospect - maybe with a higher ceiling, but still not proven. I like to take the safe side, keep the more known quantity, even if Lee has more upside potential. YMMV, and I don't disagree with that.

Most of the time I'd opt to keep the superior player.  If it's a question of truly elite talent at up the middle positions, with starting pitching as exactly in the middle as it gets, I widen my horizon a little.  It also depends on what we could get for Julien.  Wheels within wheels here.  Good discussion.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Most of the time I'd opt to keep the superior player.  If it's a question of truly elite talent at up the middle positions, with starting pitching as exactly in the middle as it gets, I widen my horizon a little.  It also depends on what we could get for Julien.  Wheels within wheels here.  Good discussion.

I'd value Lee and Julien about the same, even though Julien has succeeded at a higher level.....if I were to trade either of them. 

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

I appreciate your insight. I believe that the Twins should hold on to Julien over Lee. There's still time for him show improvement, but Lee just hasn't performed at a level that shows to me he will be a star at the plate in the majors. He's been solid, but just for comparison, Julien had a career minor league OPS of .924. As I stated Brooks Lee has yet to top .850 with any team he's been a part of. Julien also has an .840 OPS in the majors. My point being why dump the young guy who has proven he can hit at every level in favor of the guy who you drafted high so you hope he can hit?

In order to compare apples to apples, don’t you have to throw Lee’s college stats in as well? How high does his ops go if you just add in his last college season? Thats the last time he actually played against the same age of athletes. He ate them for lunch. In 2023, he was playing against guys 3 years older than him. A direct comparison to Julien would have had to be done with Lee playing in Cedar Rapids IA for the whole year of ‘23.  I bet he would have lit up that league and got everyone screaming to have him skip AA and go right to the Saints in April after an invite to spring training. People are already asking if Jenkins is gonna get an invite this year. I hate comparing minor leaguers. It’s literally impossible to make anything but applesauce.